Who Starts for the Twins in the Postseason?

Rocco Baldelli really only has one decision to make when it comes to his starting rotation in the first round of the playoffs. With Sonny Gray and Pablo Lopez locked in as two obvious choices, the game three starter has yet to be determined. When considering which of the pair should get the ball in game one, Baldelli has a few lines of thinking to ponder.

Game 1:  Pablo Lopez
Lined up to start on Wednesday September 27 against the Athletics, the acquisition from the Luis Arraez trade looks to be positioned for game one. Lopez has been everything he was expected to be when Minnesota traded for him, and this is the type of moment they envisioned him pitching in. Looking to set up the short series on a positive note, Lopez is an arm you should feel comfortable about.

Over the course of his starts for the Twins, Lopez has averaged just a tick more than six innings per outing. He could be the type to save Minnesota’s bullpen out of the gate, and his strikeout ability can give him a chance to avoid precarious situations. Racking up punchouts in droves this year, Lopez will look to punish opposing batters.

Lopez made his lone postseason start for the Miami Marlins during the National League Division Series in 2020, and he gave up just two runs across five innings while striking out seven Atlanta batters. Going for the first time with the Twins, the former Marlin will want to make a strong impression prior to kicking off his extension in 2024.

Game 2: Sonny Gray
It was Joe Ryan that started on Opening Day for the Minnesota Twins, but Gray got that honor a year ago. The veteran has made four previous postseason starts, with the last one coming in 2017 for the New York Yankees.

Gray probably brings the most volatility to his start among Twins options, given his uncertainty as the game goes on. He has averaged just shy of six innings an outing this year, but Baldelli has been reluctant to let him go deep even when rolling. Gray has an ability to look truly untouchable, only to have things quickly go sideways.

By going with Gray in game two, the Twins should have a good idea of how their bullpen can be utilized if needed in an emergency scenario. The moment certainly shouldn’t be too big for Gray, and a strong playoff showing will only add to the amount of zeroes he’s guaranteed to see on the dotted line this offseason.

Game 3: Joe Ryan
The only other consideration for this start would be veteran Kenta Maeda, but ultimately it makes sense for Baldelli to transition him into a bullpen role. He has pitched there before and seen success, while Ryan would be an unknown commodity coming on in relief.

Minnesota has seen Ryan struggle this season, even to the point of inserting Dallas Keuchel into the rotation for a couple of his turns. Ryan worked back through a groin injury, but the home run issue really hasn’t subsided. 

With a career best 10.8 K/9, and walking less than two batters per nine innings, Ryan can certainly dominate a lineup. Unfortunately, he has also allowed 29 homers in 27 starts, and the Twins can’t afford that to be a big run-producer in the playoffs. Ryan has pitched in a few key matchups, and this gives him a chance to prove he’s ready. If Ryan makes this start for Minnesota, the bullpen will also be all hands on deck as it would be an elimination scenario.

Everyone Else:
Minnesota has prided itself on having more than a few strong starters this season. They even added veteran Keuchel down the stretch to give their top arms a bit of a breather. How the Twins construct their postseason roster remains to be seen, but a few of the starters should transition to the bullpen.

The most obvious arm working out of relief can be Maeda. He has thrown 42 1/3 innings out of the bullpen in his career, and his numbers have actually been better when coming on from behind the outfield wall. Maeda would probably prefer to start, and hasn’t been a reliever since 2019 with the Dodgers, but he could easily acclimate back into the role.

It doesn’t stand to reason that Keuchel would pitch out of the bullpen over more traditional arms, and Louie Varland has already transitioned to that role. Both Tyler Mahle and Jose De Leon are out for the year, which leaves only Bailey Ober as eligible starters left unaddressed. Bringing him along as a bullpen piece is appealing to me in that he could be called upon if something goes wrong early for one of the starters, and that should have more value than the last bullpen consideration.

How would you line up the Twins starters in the postseason? Is there a name you’d like to see relied upon more?