The Twins’ Playoff Odds, and the Week Ahead in the AL Central and Wild Card Races

[Ted Schwerzler]

After handling business against the Cleveland Guardians, and winning a series against the New York Mets, the Minnesota Twins have positioned themselves well for the postseason. How it shapes up from here has plenty of moving parts.

 

Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota wrapped up their final series with the Guardians in 2023 by taking two of three, and beating Lucas Giolito to a pulp in a 20-6 victory during the first game. After Cleveland claimed former Los Angeles Angels Giolito, Matt Moore, and Reynaldo Lopez, there was reason to believe this was their last stand against the Twins. Instead of wilting, the division leaders held serve and then followed up the momentum by returning home with a series win against the New York Mets.

At this point, the AL Central is all but decided, but how the wild card race and other two divisions play out remains to be seen. Here’s how those races stand as of today.

 

Tampa Bay Rays
Playoff Odds - 100.0%

There’s no doubt that the Tampa Bay Rays are going to make the postseason, but where they fit in remains to be seen. The Baltimore Orioles have overtaken them in the AL East, but with just a 3.0 game deficit, there is reason to believe that Kevin Cash could get his team back atop the division. They aren’t the same team without Wander Franco, but the Rays have consistently been an organization that is better because of the sum of their parts. Minnesota will get a look at them this week, and could find themselves hosting Tampa Bay at Target Field in October.

Houston Astros 
Playoff Odds - 98.9%

The defending World Series champs have gone on a run of late. Taking over the top of the AL West again, they have a slim lead over both Seattle and Texas while boasting the best World Series odds of any team not named Atlanta. Adding Justin Verlander at the deadline was a big get, and Kyle Tucker has become a superstar. Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, and Yordan Alvarez make this lineup among the most dangerous in baseball.

Toronto Blue Jays
Playoff Odds - 79.2%

Toronto hasn't kept up with the top of the AL East, but the definitely have avoided the same fate as the Red Sox and Yankees. The Blue Jays have a unique blend of pitching and hitting for the playoffs. Kevin Gausman is in the running for a Cy Young award, and Jose Berrios has had a nice bounce-back year. Both Matt Chapman and Bo Bichette are swinging it well at the plate and Toronto has gotten surprisingly strong production out of both Kevin Kiermaier and Whit Merrifield. This may be one of the more completely constructed teams in baseball, and they certainly aren't a wild card team to be taken lightly if they get in.

Seattle Mariners
Playoff Odds - 68.6%

Surging at the right time, Seattle has come back from the dead and is well positioned to make the postseason. Despite being sellers at the deadline and trading closer Paul Sewald, Julio Rodriguez has turned it up a notch and Scott Servais has his team playing some really good baseball. They are probably a better bet to win a wild card spot than the division, but this is certainly a team that Minnesota could find themselves hosting in October.

Texas Rangers
Playoff Odds - 51.9%

Unlike the Mariners, Texas has trended the wrong direction for the past several weeks. Despite having one of baseball’s best records for much of the season, Bruce Bochy’s club is now third in the West and three games back of the Astros. Minnesota took consecutive series from them, both home and on the road, while Texas also lost a series to the Astros. Mitch Garver has been incredibly hot, and Max Scherzer has pitched better than he did with the Mets, but it hasn’t been enough to keep them afloat. Texas isn’t a team to count out, and Corey Seager is having an MVP-like season. If they get in, they’re going to be incredibly dangerous.

Cleveland is still technically not eliminated, but that appears to be just a matter of principle at this point. The Boston Red Sox are six games back of the wild card, and the New York Yankees find themselves eight games back. Neither of the bottom-two AL East teams are going to make it to October, but at least Aaron Boone has been allowed to keep things interesting. With Jasson Dominguez and Austin Wells promoted, some of the best New York prospects are now at the big league level.

The Twins can’t control who they’ll face in October, but finding a way to avoid the reigning World Series champs in a short series may be best. The AL West is likely going to dictate which opponent comes to Target Field, but a date with the Rays probably isn’t something to shy away from either.

Who are you hoping ends up being Minnesota’s opponent during the wild card round? Which team do you think wins the AL East, and who holds on in the West?

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[DJL44]

Blue Jays get no respect

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Blue Jays get no respect

Jays, Rays, what's the difference, who can tell those teams apart anyway? :

[Dave Borton]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Jays, Rays, what's the difference, who can tell those teams apart anyway? :

Jays, Rays, A's, now there's a difference. Even I can see that one.

[Ted Schwerzler]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Blue Jays get no respect

Woof, thanks for catching that. I knew the list of teams I had there seemed light.

[Blyleven2011]

Twins can't control who they play in the playoffs , a plus though is that we host at home  ....

Sure glad we aren't facing Kansas city royals , they'd sweep us , lol ...

[RaoulDuke]

I think I want the Rangers?  Real ace (albeit an old one) and a real offense but the pen is real suspect.

Blue Jays and Seattle are also about even matchups.

Houston we played tough regular season but they are a seasoned post season team.

Rays seem to have our number, along with Atlanta they were the teams that clearly outclassed them in the regular season.

[JD-TWINS]

Texas will have to be hot to overcome their deficit in the standings……that said, gotta pull for them to be our 1st opponent. They do not have much of a bullpen & only a couple competent starters with health.

Jays & Seattle have scary starting pitching!!

Honestly, I can’t imagine Texas getting the last spot.

[Karbo]

My guess is Jays or Mariners. Jays are better matchup IMO, but they can really hit. Mariners have as good if not slightly better pitching than us so I could see them shutting us down. Either team would be a tough matchup.