Twins Fantasy Fix (9/3): What’s Next for Buxton?

[Mike Rose]

With Byron Buxton experiencing some soreness in his last rehab game, should fantasy managers officially count him out?

Image courtesy of Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

 

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Byron Buxton remains out with some injury questions, and it’s unclear if or when he’ll be able to return.

In his second rehab game for the Saints on Friday, Buxton left early with soreness in the patella tendon of his right knee. The team is considering him “day to day,” and while players often experience some soreness when they return after a long layoff, this news is still disconcerting given his history.

The Twins figure to keep doing what they’ve been doing most of the year: Michael A. Taylor in center field (though he’s also dealing with an injury; more on that below), spelled occasionally by the likes of Willi Castro and Joey Gallo, with a number of players rotating through the DH spot. But what should fantasy managers do? If you have an open IL spot and have been carrying Buxton there, you can probably maintain the status quo, though I wouldn’t fault you for dropping him, either. It’s hard to imagine Buxton having a significant fantasy impact down the home stretch, if he’s even able to take the field.

In dynasty formats, Buxton’s outlook is a bit more complicated. He signed a seven-year contract after the 2021 season, so he’s in Minnesota’s plans for the foreseeable future. However, he’ll also be 30 when the 2024 season begins, and it’s unclear if he’ll return to center field at some point or if he’s looking like more of a full-time DH. While his defensive abilities don’t matter in fantasy, position eligibility does matter. Plus, if Buxton is deemed incapable of playing center, it probably also means he won’t run as much. At his peak, Buxton is a 20-20 (or 30-30) threat, though he last had double-digit steals back in 2019. If the next phase of his career sees him hitting for power but without the steals, he becomes a lot less appealing in fantasy because a lot of players can provide home runs on their own. I’d say Buxton could still be worth a lottery ticket in dynasty leagues, though I wouldn’t invest heavily in him, and I’d feel a lot better if we saw him run a bit more. Just don’t hold your breath. 

Let’s now take a look at some other key injury updates, plus which Twins have their stock rising and falling from a fantasy perspective due to results from the past week as well as a prospect to keep an eye on. I’ll also take a look at the week ahead and highlight some matchups to target and avoid.

Twins Injury Updates
Michael A. Taylor
Expected return: Mid-September
Taylor aggravated a hamstring injury and was placed on the injured list a day later. With Buxton still a question mark, the Taylor news is a blow to the team, though they activated Willi Castro in a corresponding move. Castro could become the top option in center field in the interim, though Gallo and Andrew Stevenson figure to also mix in.

Alex Kirilloff
Expected return: September
Like Buxton, Kirilloff also began a rehab assignment with the Saints this past week. The team hasn’t said how long the assignment will be, but expect him back sometime this month, assuming he doesn’t suffer a setback in his recovery from a shoulder strain.

Brock Stewart
Expected return: September
Stewart has tossed a few bullpen sessions recently and has said he’s targeting a Sept. 10 return, though that’s still up in the air. He could give the Twins a boost but his fantasy value is limited outside of leagues that count holds. 

Chris Paddack
Expected return: Late September
Paddack’s return from Tommy John surgery is maybe a little further out, though it’s encouraging that he’s being discussed for a role in the majors this season. If the righty is able to return, the Twins will likely be extremely cautious, so he probably would slot into the bullpen and be on a pitch count. 

Jose Miranda
Expected return: TBD
Miranda was recently transferred from the 10-day to the 60-day IL, and it’s unclear if he’ll play again this year. It’s been a lost season for Miranda, who started the campaign as the team’s regular third baseman and was expected to make a big impact following a promising 2022 debut. He still figures to be in the team’s plans for 2024 and beyond, though his outlook is a little less promising than it was a year ago. 

Stock Rising: Joe Ryan
ESPN ownership: 90%
Ryan has now made two starts since returning from a groin strain and he’s looked sharp. The righty has allowed just two earned runs over 11 total innings with 14 strikeouts. Before the injury began to slow him down, Ryan was quite effective, posting a 2.98 ERA across his first 15 starts of the season. If the groin issue is fully behind him, Ryan should be able to get back to his earlier form, and if that’s the case, he should be locked into fantasy lineups moving forward.

Stock Falling: Jhoan Duran
ESPN ownership: 46%
Duran’s overall numbers look good: 2.60 ERA, 12.2 K/9 and 24 saves. However, he’s been much more pedestrian lately with a 4.20 ERA and two blown saves over his last 15 appearances. I still think he should be rostered in most fantasy formats due to his talent and role, though he’s lost a little bit of his shine in recent weeks.

Prospect Spotlight: Andrew Stevenson (Minnesota)
Stevenson just made his Twins debut Friday, but I’ll retroactively give him some attention as a prospect. The outfielder was outstanding for the Saints this year, batting .317 with 16 home runs and a whopping 44 stolen bases in 106 games. He projects as a depth piece for the Twins in the short term, though with Taylor out, Stevenson may be able to seize a more prominent role if he plays well.

Upcoming Week Matchup Notes
3 Games at Cleveland (Lucas Giolito, Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams)
3 Games vs New York Mets (Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Tylor Megill)
The Twins play a familiar opponent in Cleveland then get the Mets for the first time this season. Giolito will be making his debut for the Guardians, and the righty has experience against the Twins from his time with the White Sox.

Two-Start Starting Pitchers
Pablo Lopez lines up to start Monday and Sunday. After an incredible stretch in August when he recorded three straight scoreless appearances, the righty has taken a bit of a step back, allowing eight runs in his last two starts. However, the matchups look good and Lopez has been solid overall, so he should be locked into fantasy lineups.

Twins Fantasy Hitters to Watch
Giolito has been mostly good against the Twins, holding them to a .194 average overall. However, Max Kepler is hitting .293 against the righty and has taken him deep three times. With Giolito struggling a bit lately (6.89 ERA in six appearances for the Angels), you could definitely consider a Minnesota stack on Monday, with Kepler included.

The Twins just saw Bibee, and he held them to two runs and only four hits. He’s been solid all year with a 3.03 ERA and might be worth avoiding. Williams exited a recent start against Minnesota after just one inning due to knee soreness but has been deemed healthy. He’s also been solid with a 3.46 ERA.

The New York pitchers are not surprisingly less familiar to Minnesota hitters. The Twins have never seen Senga, who’s been solid in his first season in the majors after coming over from Japan, posting a 3.08 ERA and striking out 176 batters across 143 1/3 innings. I like the other two New York matchups a lot better, as both Peterson and Megill have ERAs over 5.00. Without any significant matchup histories to lean on, I’d probably just target the usual suspects for the Twins: Edouard Julien, Jorge Polanco, Royce Lewis, Max Kepler and possibly Carlos Correa, though I trust the first three more at the moment. Donovan Solano will also probably be in the lineup against the lefty Peterson and he’s batting .302 against southpaws this season. He projects as a great low-cost DFS option in that spot.

What do you expect from Buxton in fantasy the rest of this year and beyond? Let me know in the COMMENTS, plus post your thoughts on the matchups this week.

 

View full article

[junior8791]

I will fully admit, I am TIRED of this. Put Buxton on the Double secret probation DL DL until he can play.  Might  be 2025

[jrod23]

I truly appreciate Buxton's ability and tools...especially on fast balls and when he is able to run free of pain.  However, he sees lots of off-speed, and isn't able to roam free of pain  since 2015.  We finally dropped Sano last season, but somehow allowed Buxton to fill that role...along with Gallo.  It's gross and frustrating.

Way to go Falvine.  Stick to them guns!!!

 

[darin617]

Makes you wonder if the Twins put Buxton on waivers if anyone would have claimed him.

I almost agree on shutting him down for the rest of this season and 2024 and hope for a good 2025.

That's a bleak outlook for sure. 

I hope the contract is insured.

 

[Karbo]

IF it is just stiff from lack of playing, I let him play in St. Paul. However, if he continues to have problems with the pain I'd leave him on the IL.

[whitsbrain]

This is so disappointing.  He's not a part of the Twins' future.  If he is ever able to play for more than a couple of weeks at a time, it'll be a nice surprise and that's all.  I hope I'm wrong but there's going to be a hole in center to fill next season.

[TopGunn#22]

I had Buxton on my fantasy team this year and dropped him months ago in favor of Jaren Duran (Red Sox) who really played well but is now out for the season.  I think if the Twins had put Buxton on waivers nobody would have picked him up, and that would have been pretty humiliating for both Buxton and the organization.  They need to acquire a CF this off season with the idea that Buxton's playing days are over.  No more half measures.  If Buxton SOMEHOW returns to health, that's a bonus.  But the days of counting on him for anything are over.  

[Swing Batter-Batter]

When the season started, and Twins management stated that Buxton would start the season at DH, I was skeptical, to say the least. By the time the season was 6 weeks old, it was becoming obvious that he was not going to play CF any time soon. At the all-star break, many people, including myself, said he would not play CF this season and maybe never again. At this point, I believe it is never again. The question is, with multiple years left on his contract, a no-trade clause and not much positive on the horizon, what do the Twins do with him?

[Doctor Wu]

Miranda seems like the odd man out, or a somewhat forgotten player at this point. With Royce Lewis looking great, and Brooks Lee knocking on the door, will the Twins even want or need to have Miranda around next year?

[TopGunn#22]

I don't think Miranda has a place on this team.  You could say the Twins made a mistake with Spencer Steer and you'd be right, but Steer can play 3B, 2B, 1B and LF.  Miranda is below average at both 3B & 1B.  Steer can also run a little.  Miranda is a station to station type of baserunner.  I would be looking to deal Miranda in some sort of package that would bring back a bona fide CF (can't count on Buxton for anything going forward) or a solid BP piece.  Packaging Miranda with Larnach could get something useful back.