Article: Diamond Getting Away From His Game

[Nick Nelson]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1812-Diamond-Getting-Away-From-His-Game

[fairweather]

When you're a weak control type pitcher you're going to have stretches like this. Diamond will get better as he studies the mistakes and looks back at the tape from last year.

[Aaron Cross]

He is what he is. A 5th starter. He'll always be a .500 ptcher with an era in the mid to upper 4's.

[h2oface]

Last year will turn out to be his career year. To have banked on him repeating was and is folly. As far as 12-9 with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP being ..... outstanding?........ standards for outstanding sure have slipped.

[Nick Nelson]

Last year will turn out to be his career year. To have banked on him repeating was and is folly. As far as 12-9 with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP being ..... outstanding?........ standards for outstanding sure have slipped.

I don't think most people were counting on him to repeat last year's performance, but he sure seemed like a good bet to maintain as a solid mid/bottom of rotation guy as long as he kept throwing strikes and getting grounders.

[Thrylos]

He is what he is. A bottom of the rotation guy who got overhyped by DickNBert.

 

BTW, if you look at numbers like WHIP, K/9 and K/BB DeVries was better than Diamond last season. But the Twins look at W-L and ERA.

[drjim]

BTW, if you look at numbers like WHIP, K/9 and K/BB DeVries was better than Diamond last season. But the Twins look at W-L and ERA.

 

You honestly believe this or is this a bit?

[a-wan]

BTW, if you look at numbers like WHIP, K/9 and K/BB DeVries was better than Diamond last season. But the Twins look at W-L and ERA.

 

And what their scouts say, even if what the scouts say contradicts 10 years of stats for Correia pitching in the NL.

[Tibs]

 

BTW, if you look at numbers like WHIP, K/9 and K/BB DeVries was better than Diamond last season. But the Twins look at W-L and ERA.

 

I think you are over-analyzing and looking into the stats too much. Why should WHIP, K/9, or K/BB matter if he has a better W-L and ERA? Isn't the objective of the pitcher to limit the other team's runs through any means possible and win the game?

[Mr. Brooks]

I think you are over-analyzing and looking into the stats too much. Why should WHIP, K/9, or K/BB matter if he has a better W-L and ERA? Isn't the objective of the pitcher to limit the other team's runs through any means possible and win the game?

 

Because the pitcher has more direct control over those underlying stats then he does over his ERA and W/L record. Those numbers are better predictors of future performance, and are why he has quite predictably regressed to the mean.

ERA gives you a snapshot of what a player has DONE, but doesnt necessarily predict what he will DO.

[IdahoPilgrim]

ERA gives you a snapshot of what a player has DONE, but doesnt necessarily predict what he will DO.

 

This is actually true of all statistics, including WHIP, K/9, K/BB, WAR, xFIP, whatever.

[Mr. Brooks]

This is actually true of all statistics, including WHIP, K/9, K/BB, WAR, xFIP, whatever.

 

A pitcher has much more control over many of those stats then he does his ERA. There are too many variables to ERA over small sample sizes to control.

The numbers that go into FIP and xFIP have been proven, over massive sample sizes, to be much more accurate predictors of future ERA, than past ERA.

[IdahoPilgrim]

The numbers that go into FIP and xFIP have been proven, over massive sample sizes, to be much more accurate predictors of future ERA, than past ERA.

 

Stated much better. Thank you.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think most people were counting on him to repeat last year's performance, but he sure seemed like a good bet to maintain as a solid mid/bottom of rotation guy as long as he kept throwing strikes and getting grounders.

 

Were the Twins? Do we think they were counting on him being an above median pitcher? I think they did feel that.

[Tibs]

Because the pitcher has more direct control over those underlying stats then he does over his ERA and W/L record. Those numbers are better predictors of future performance, and are why he has quite predictably regressed to the mean.

ERA gives you a snapshot of what a player has DONE, but doesnt necessarily predict what he will DO.

 

A pitcher still has most of the control over his ERA and also a lot of control whether his team wins or not. The point of the pitcher is to limit the runs and win the game. Saying a pitcher performed better yet had a higher ERA and less wins is not true.

[Nick Nelson]

Were the Twins? Do we think they were counting on him being an above median pitcher? I think they did feel that.

 

They had every reason to feel that way. He was an elite GB pitcher with an elite walk rate last year, and as we're talking now about things a pitcher can control, those both definitely qualify. I guess you could say that his success in those two areas might have been flukish, but he's always been a big ground ball guy and the strides he made with his control seem to be holding up.

[RedBull34]

A pitcher has only a part of whether or not he will get the win or not. Jeremy Hellickson pitched 7.2 with 8 ER and still won this year. He clearly did not deserve it. On the other hand Jordan Zimmerman pitched a game where he went 8 innings with 1 ER and got the loss. I would say that he deserved the win for that outing but he didn't. W-L is a TERRIBLE measure of a pitcher's success. The best example is to go look at Slowey's game logs. Can you really say he deserves a 1-5 record with those numbers?

[Willihammer]

Diamond's velocity is down over 1 mph over last Apr-May. His walks and K-rates have taken small hits. Batters have gotten ahead of him more this year. I think its safe to say Diamond is not operating at 100% right now, and I suspect its because of the elbow/surgery.