SS Guess Who

[Danchat]

I wanted to do one of those "guess who" statlines, guess who each player is!

Player A: .249/.315 .691 OPS, plus defender at short

Player B: .228/.301 .696 OPS, plus defender at short

Player C: .263/.312 .678 OPS, plus defender at short

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Player A is Ehire Adrianza's career line as a Twin, Player B is Carlos Correa 2023, and Player C is Andrelton Simmon's career line.

🤢

[Squirrel]

4 minutes ago, Danchat said:

Player A is Ehire Adrianza's career line as a Twin, Player B is Carlos Correa 2023, and Player C is Andrelton Simmon's career line.

Is B Correa's career line? Or just as a Twin? Why are you using different parameters from one player to the other? Either all three should have career numbers, or all three should have numbers as a Twin. A is a number as a Twin, B is as a Twin or career?, and C is career line. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I guessed Turner, Correa, Bogaerts, but most people are probably already aware that some top shortstops are struggling this year after the free agency carousel last offseason. I like the historical comparison better.

[Danchat]

12 hours ago, Squirrel said:

Is B Correa's career line? Or just as a Twin? Why are you using different parameters from one player to the other? Either all three should have career numbers, or all three should have numbers as a Twin. A is a number as a Twin, B is as a Twin or career?, and C is career line. 

The point is that 2023 Correa is playing like Adrianza / Simmons in those spans, chosen in a way that shows that we're basically paying $33M a year to a defense-first and below average hitting shortstop so far. If I took Simmons' stat line with the Twins it'd be apparent how horrific he was at the plate, but he was known over his career for being more mediocre rather than horrific.

11 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I guessed Turner, Correa, Bogaerts, but most people are probably already aware that some top shortstops are struggling this year after the free agency carousel last offseason.

That's a good point, Turner is also having a dismal year and Bogaerts is doing marginally better than the two. Gotta hope for a Corey Seager-like turnaround (.915 OPS in last year with the Dodgers, .772 in first year in Texas, 1.070 in second year in Texas).

[Road trip]

I certainly don't dispute that Correa is have a disappointing year, but I'm not certain the comparisons over time are completely fair.  We are in an offensively depressed era, so comparing this year's stats to stat lines from a half decade ago (or more) makes Correa's stat line look worse than it really is.

Correa's 2023 stat line is good for an OPS+ of 92.  Not good, but not a disaster for a shortstop.  Simmons for his career had an OPS+ of 87.  As a Twin it was 57.  That's a really big difference.

Correa currently ranks 11th among all shortstops in OPS.  Again, not great, and upper middle of the pack is not what the Twins paid for, but not terrible (for disasters, see Tim Anderson, Javier Baez, Willy Adames, even Trea Turner).

I'm still hoping for more from Correa, while being disappointed with this year's performance.  He's still a better than average SS, and is young enough that this year might be a blip rather than a permanent decline. 

I wish I had the same level of hope for Buxton...

[Squirrel]

55 minutes ago, Danchat said:

The point is that 2023 Correa is playing like Adrianza / Simmons in those spans, chosen in a way that shows that we're basically paying $33M a year to a defense-first and below average hitting shortstop so far. If I took Simmons' stat line with the Twins it'd be apparent how horrific he was at the plate, but he was known over his career for being more mediocre rather than horrific.

The point is, if you are using career numbers for Simmons, compare career numbers for the others. Or, use 'as a Twin' numbers for all. It's not a good comparison when you are using a single season of numbers for one player and career numbers for another. It is then not an apt comparison. Use Simmons' and Adrianza's numbers as Twins and compare it to the numbers of Correa as a Twin ... all seasons they were Twins. But comparing career numbers of one to one season of another? It's meaningless.

[Woof Bronzer]

3 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

The point is, if you are using career numbers for Simmons, compare career numbers for the others. Or, use 'as a Twin' numbers for all. It's not a good comparison when you are using a single season of numbers for one player and career numbers for another. It is then not an apt comparison. Use Simmons' and Adrianza's numbers as Twins and compare it to the numbers of Correa as a Twin ... all seasons they were Twins. But comparing career numbers of one to one season of another? It's meaningless.

Come on.  The poster is making a point.  The fact that the Twins are paying $30 mil in 2023 for Simmons/Adiranza level production is eye opening.  He's not saying Correa's career is comparable to either of them.  Surely you understand this.

[Squirrel]

18 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Come on.  The poster is making a point.  The fact that the Twins are paying $30 mil in 2023 for Simmons/Adiranza level production is eye opening.  He's not saying Correa's career is comparable to either of them.  Surely you understand this.

Don't take that tone with me. I was making a point, too. Correa's contract isn't just one year. And this season isn't over yet. Doubtful he 'catches up' but he could be better. We all get that he's not what we had hoped, that goes without saying, but this comparison just isn't good and does not tell the story correctly or accurately or really at all, imo. If we want to see what kind of year Correa is having, then use other current SS around the league and do that, compare their single season, and their megamillions, as another poster above suggested. Or compare Correa's single season to his career numbers. I'm not disputing Correa has been a disappointment, but the methodology is just simply wrong here. And use someone other than Simmons ... Simmons was putrid as a Twin. We didn't get career Simmons here, either, and what little we paid Simmons still wasn't worth it, either, so I just don't get that comparison. It's a poor one, imo. In other words, I'd rather have Correa for $30million, than Simmons, as he was as a Twin, for $10.00

[Danchat]

31 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

The point is, if you are using career numbers for Simmons, compare career numbers for the others.

If I used just Simmons' statline with the Twins, then it begins to paint the picture that the front office is not very good at finding capable hitters at SS rather the subject of the post being Correa.

18 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

If we want to see what kind of year Correa is having, then use other current SS around the league and do that, compare their single season, and their megamillions, as another poster above suggested.

Let's try this, then:

Correa .228/.301 .696 OPS

Player A: .260/3.72 .882 OPS

Player B: .245/.317 .772 OPS

Player C: .243/.296 .679 OPS

Player D: .256/.334 .796 OPS

Player E: .284/.414 1.050 OPS

Player F: .286/.418 .915 OPS

 

 

 

 

 

All statlines are from the first year of $30M+ per year deals. The players are Bryce Harper, Corey Seager, Manny Machado, Trea Turner, Aaron Judge, and Anthony Rendon.

[Woof Bronzer]

46 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

. I'm not disputing Correa has been a disappointment, but the methodology is just simply wrong here. 

That's your opinion.  I think the methodology nicely provides some context around how bad Correa has been.   And comparing one player's stats to another has been done approximately 700 billion times in the history of baseball, so I remain confused as to why you are so offended by it.  

 

[Squirrel]

9 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

That's your opinion.  I think the methodology nicely provides some context around how bad Correa has been.   And comparing one player's stats to another has been done approximately 700 billion times in the history of baseball, so I remain confused as to why you are so offended by it.  

Did I say I was offended? Nope. I just think the methodology was off. I don't even disagree that Correa has been disappointing. And I did suggest some comparisons that I felt would better tell the story, I didn't say don't make any comparisons, just make apt ones. And I'd still rather have Correa at his $30mil than to have the Simmons we got for $10. It's not even close.

[Squirrel]

25 minutes ago, Danchat said:

If I used just Simmons' statline with the Twins, then it begins to paint the picture that the front office is not very good at finding capable hitters at SS rather the subject of the post being Correa.

Well, maybe that is the topic, though. We can complain about players all we want ... and, I'm not saying Correa isn't a disappointment, and there have been thousands of words written about that subject all through this site ... but the FO is the one who signs them and agrees to pay them the signing amount. So ... I'm not exactly sure the over all point ... Correa is a disappointment to you ... but I still think the comparison to Simmons is a bad one. I'm not even sure Adrianza is a good one, either. Compare him to all the other SS in the league (SS, not outfielders) or compare him to his past seasons. The fact is, this team hasn't had a true and great SS in a long while. And while Correa's offense is lacking and disappointing, what we've had in the field, isn't. It doesn't balance it, but it also doesn't make it as bad, either, imo. And we haven't seen that, as I said, in a long while. Is it worth $30million? That's still another issue to debate. I guess it's not to you, but for me, I'm not sure, given we could have had Farmer as our SS, and for a while was looking that way. Would you be less disappointed if we were only paying Correa $10million? Either way, I'd still rather have Twins Correa than Twins Simmons or Twins Adrianza.

[Woof Bronzer]

19 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Would you be less disappointed if we were only paying Correa $10million? 

Absolutely!  Correa at $10m would mean we had another $20m to spend on bullpen, RH bat, etc.  We would be a much better team if we were only paying him $10mil.  If you're going to take up 20% of the team's entire payroll you better produce.  

I get your point though.  Correa's been bad, we can argue about how bad, but the fact remains, he just needs to be better.

[DJL44]

17 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Absolutely!  Correa at $10m would mean we had another $20m to spend on bullpen, RH bat, etc.

I disagree with this take. The Twins have room in the budget to spend to acquire players if they choose. They paid $11M for Joey Gallo this spring despite having 5 other LH hitting outfielders on the roster. Correa is only 20% of the payroll because they are holding down their payroll. There is no evidence they have maxed out.

[tony&rodney]

We can all agree that Correa is not having the type of season anyone expected from him and he draws more attention because of his contract. No doubt.

Still, to compare Correa to a utility infielder and a Senior Mens League player doesn't work on any level imho. I thought the Twins should have given Ehire a bit more run as a utility player because he was useful in many capacities, just not a full time shortstop. I argued for the Twins to trade for the magician, Simmons, when he was put on the market by Atlanta, but he was a very dim shadow of a player in any fashion for the Twins. Correa plays daily, makes all the plays, and is a gamer who also is really struggling with the bat this year. He is not finished any more than Seager or Machado were when they had bad years. 

[Mike Sixel]

I never would have guessed CC wasn't playing well. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I like the comparison. Correa is playing at the level of Simmons or Adrianza this season. That’s basically it. Easily understandable that way.

It is relevant because Correa failed a physical this offseason and there is a hole in his swing developing.

[Squirrel]

3 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Absolutely!  Correa at $10m would mean we had another $20m to spend on bullpen, RH bat, etc.  We would be a much better team if we were only paying him $10mil.  If you're going to take up 20% of the team's entire payroll you better produce.  

I get your point though.  Correa's been bad, we can argue about how bad, but the fact remains, he just needs to be better.

Having/paying for Correa does not deter them from spending elsewhere. Full stop. He is not the reason they didn't spend more in the BP. And to me, he's been disappointing, but the FO admitted before we even signed Correa that they weren't going to focus anymore on the BP during the off-season. One doesn't have anything to do with the other. You can be disappointed with his play, but blaming him for the FO not spending on the BP just is not a thing.

[ICTwin25]

The most frustrating thing for me is how bad his bat is when it matters. His splits are cringeworthy bad in high leverage, with RISP, and when 3 men are on base. I was never big on signing or resigning him as he's always a cheater in my eyes, but he's probably another casualty in regards to the bad hitting coaches on staff.