Series Preview (ARI 8/4-8/6): Twins Look to Avoid Getting Snakebit Against Slumping Diamondbacks

[Steven Trefz]

The 56-54 Minnesota Twins come back home to Target Field for Joe Mauer weekend for an interleague series against the 57-53 Arizona Diamondbacks. Both teams have been sliding towards .500, but both still remain in the playoff hunt. Who will gain ground this weekend?

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA Today

 

The Twins enter this weekend's series against the Diamondbacks with three of their hottest pitchers set to start each game of the series. They are facing right handed pitchers who have been struggling of late. The Diamondback offense hasn't scored more than four runs in a game since a week ago, while the Twins have begun to string hits together since the All-Star break.

For the Twins, Ryan Jeffers, Byron Buxton, and Matt Wallner come in as the hottest hitters, all posting an OPS over 1.00 in their past seven games. The bottom of the barrel concerned OPS contains Eduoard Julien (.502) and Carlos Correa (.310), with Jorge Polanco also starting off slow following his return from the IL.

By constrast, over the past seven games the Diamondbacks don't have anyone batting over .792 OPS (Lourdes Gurriel Jr.), and no one has hit more than one home run. Young phenom Corbin Carroll has fallen off of the map (.115 average, .322 OPS), and no one has stepped up to pick up that slack in the lineup. As I type this, I can see already how the Diamondbacks are set to average seven runs a game against us this weekend...

Weather Factor: Gorgeous. Beautiful. No excuse to not pack the stadium type of weather. low to mid-80's with sunny skies and probably some humidity during the day. Sunday's forecast looks dicey, but all games should get played on the day they are scheduled for.

Pitching Probables
Game 1 – Friday, August 4th, 2023 – 7:10 pm CDT –  Twins RHP Bailey Ober (6-5, 3.19 ERA) looks to bounce back from his worst start of the season, while the Diamondbacks send out RHP Merrill Kelly (9-5, 3.23 ERA). Like Ober, Kelly's record would be even better if his team's offense provided any help. Kelly hasn't won since mid-June, but he's provided quality starts in all but three of his 17 starts. After an IL stint in early July, Arizona hopes that Kelly's return to the rotation will help right the ship for the playoff push.

New addition Tommy Pham gets the start and bats fifth against a Twins team many expected to be in the market for him. Should the game reach a save situation, the Twins will also have to deal with new Arizona closer Paul Sewald.

Game 2 – Saturday, August 5th, 2023 – 6:10 pm CDT -  Joe Mauer Twins Hall of Fame night should bring beautiful weather and a packed house to watch RHP Kenta Maeda (2-6, 4.53 ERA) take the mound. Maeda will try to keep his hot summer stretch of pitching going for the Twins. Arizona counters with another home-grown draft product, RHP Ryne Nelson (6-5, 4.84 ERA). Kelly has been the model of consistency this season, but he has seen his home run rate spike in the past two games, where he surrendered three dingers each to St. Louis and San Francisco. Hopefully this is a trend that the Twins lefty-heavy lineup can continue to exploit. While Nelson gives up home runs and hits pretty equally regardless of handedness, he has walked 29 lefties and only nine righties so far this season. Patience will be the virtue of the evening for the Twins lineup.

Remember to arrive early to take in the pre-game ceremony, featuring Twins legends and generational favorites from the Mauer era. Enjoy some 2000-10's memories, seeing Johan Santana to Josh Willingham, and everyone in between!

Game 3 - Sunday, August 6th, 2023 – 1:10 pm CDT - In what was supposed to be a battle of the current team aces, the series finale pits new Twins LHP (and former Cy Young winner) Dallas Keuchel against Diamondbacks RHP Zac Gallen (11-5, 3.41 ERA). After starting the season 10-2 withe a 3.02 ERA, Gallen has become human in July, going 1-3 with a 4.45 ERA over a span of six games. Keuchel survived the drama of last week’s opt-out, and all eyes will be watching Sunday to see if anything is left in the tank.

From the "What does this mean?" stat department, Gallen has surrendered 12 home runs in 11 day games, versus only three home runs in 12 night games.

The weather looks questionable with chances of rain throughout the day, so plan for a potential late start and game delays, which would obviously change the bullpen's role in this finale.

Prediction Time!
The Twins' lead in the AL Central has only climbed since the trade deadline, and the Diamondbacks are reeling right now. How do you think the Twins will produce offensively against this right-handed staff? Will the Twins continue to add to their division lead, or will they leave the weekend snakebit by Arizona and the fans? Leave your thoughts in the comments. 

 

 

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[big dog]

Given Buxton's hamstring problem I'm not sure I would count on him to add much this weekend. I like the pitching matchups, though. We have a good shot in all three if the bats work even a little bit.

[2wins87]

5 minutes ago, big dog said:

Given Buxton's hamstring problem I'm not sure I would count on him to add much this weekend. I like the pitching matchups, though. We have a good shot in all three if the bats work even a little bit.

I like the pitching matchups a lot less if Keuchel gets slotted into one of the games as I think it was indicated he would be.

We also get the Diamondbacks 3 most reliable starters so it could have been a lot better.

The D-backs do seem to be in a rut since the All-star break, but against mostly pretty good teams.  Their last two series were also against the Mariners and Giants, two of the better pitching staffs in the majors, so the last week of offensive struggles are a little exaggerated.

Still, they can't be any more excited about facing the Twins pitching.

The Twins have been quite a bit better at home so I'm still hoping for 2 of 3.  There does always seem to be at least one clunker in each series for this team though.

[chpettit19]

Most of the rumors I've heard have Keuchel starting Sunday and pushing Lopez back a day.

[strumdatjag]

Joe Mauer gets inducted into Twins HOF Saturday night.  But I get to go to Harry Potter Night Friday. Hope the Twins bats are magic wands.  Still - Why Harry???

[chinmusic]

Just heard that Buxton has been placed on the 10 day IL.

[Steven Trefz]

6 hours ago, chinmusic said:

Just heard that Buxton has been placed on the 10 day IL.

In the two hours between article time and game time, a lot happened!!!

Curious to see if Luplow gets a start. Wondering why Lopez got pushed back, unless the Twins are actually concerned about the Tigers.  Maybe with the weather guaranteeing an up and down game, they picked the guy that won’t throw as many innings anyways?