2023 Trade Deadline Day Primer: What Has Happened and What to Watch For

[Ted Schwerzler]

Today is the day, the 2023 Major League Baseball trade deadline is upon us. While some teams have already kicked off the frenzy, others are still waiting to make their move. Expect the Minnesota Twins to be involved, and stay caught up with everything taking place throughout the day.

 

Image courtesy of Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK

For decades, the Major League Baseball trade deadline has been July 31 at 3pm CT. Last season was the first year the day was altered, and because of the lockout, it sat on August 2nd at 5pm CT. Now in the midst of a normal season for the first time in what feels like forever, the newly-adopted trade deadline falls on August 1st at 5pm CT. Deals will still trickle in well beyond that point, but moves must be filed with the commissioner’s office by that time.

Despite the deadline being the first day in August, there have already been a handful of moves made. First let’s get caught up on those:

• Los Angeles reunited with fan favorite Enrique Hernandez on July 25.
• Minnesota acquired Dylan Floro while sending out Jorge Lopez.
• Cleveland parted with Amed Rosario for Noah Syndergaard.
• The Angels grabbed Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez from the White Sox.
• Milwaukee swung a deal for Carlos Santana from the Pirates.
• Miami added David Robertson from the Mets.
• Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly left Chicago to go play for the Dodgers.
• Kendall Graveman went back to the Astros with the White Sox selling off.
• Max Scherzer moved to Texas with Steve Cohen paying down his salary.
• The Cardinals parted with Jordan Hicks as he pairs with Jordan Romano and the Blue Jays (if and when Romano comes off the Injured List). 
• St. Louis shipped out Jordan Montgomery and Chris Stratton, headed to the Rangers.
• Kansas City flipped Nicky Lopez to Atlanta.
• C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk left the Rockies and headed to join Shohei Ohtani.
• Cleveland cashed in on Aaron Civale sending him to the Rays.
• Seattle moved closer Paul Sewald to Arizona.
• The Brewers grabbed Mark Canha as another bat.
• Jeimer Candelario goes back to the Chicago Cubs.
• San Francisco helped Seattle to continue making moves in acquiring A.J. Pollock and Mark Mathias.
• Jose Cuas left Kansas City moving to the north side of Chicago as well.
• Oakland sent Sam Moll to the Cincinnati Reds.
• Arizona grabbed Jace Peterson from the Athletics.

With moves being made by both the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs, there is no better time check out both Brewer Fanatic and North Side Baseball for the breakdowns.

What Has the AL Central Done?
Outside of Minnesota flipping Lopez for Floro, the Twins have sat back. All of their division rivals, save for the Detroit Tigers, have been active ahead of the deadline. It’s clear that the Chicago White Sox are in a selloff. They have moved veterans on expiring deals, and have been fielding calls on Luis Robert and Dylan Cease. It doesn’t appear either of them will be moved, but Eloy Jimenez could probably still be had, and if anyone was willing to take Tim Anderson or Yoan Moncada, they could be moved as well. Chicago has a controllable relief arm in Aaron Bummer, but Keynan Middleton still represents a rental. Yasmani Grandal will be a free agent this winter as well.

Kansas City, like Chicago, has been in a selloff as well. Cuas and Lopez have already been moved. Maybe Amir Garrett entices someone, but Carlos Hernandez and Scott Barlow are still the prizes from one of baseball’s worst teams. Both bring team control, Hernandez more than Barlow, but each has plenty to like as a late-inning or high-leverage reliever. They started the process in June when they traded Aroldis Chapman to the Rangers. 

It’s the Cleveland Guardians that may be the most interesting team thus far in the Central. Despite being right there with Minnesota, they have made moves from the big league roster. Amed Rosario has not been good this year and is a free agent at the end of the season, but they now insert Gabriel Arias into a much more significant role. Maybe it gets Brayan Rocchio a look, but either way, it’s a big responsibility during a division race. Syndergaard gets a rotation spot, while both Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie may return, Cleveland's group is less certain than it was a few weeks ago.

They also moved on from Aaron Civale, who is often hurt, and having a career year. They capitalized on value, but instead returned a first base prospect in Kyle Manzardo. He’s got a legit hit tool, but Josh Bell is on the roster until they deal him, and Josh Naylor was already slated to play first base into 2024. How the Guardians handle the rest of the deadline should be fascinating.

What Can Still Happen
Chicago is bleeding pieces at an alarming rate, and they should continue to sell. The bulk of their biggest expected options to go are now gone, but maybe someone springs for Cease or Giolito. Kansas City is relatively empty at this point as well, save for the two relievers. Detroit should be more active in selling on Tuesday with Michael Lorenzen looking like one of the best bets to go. How Cleveland positions themselves after the first couple of moves remains to be seen.

Minnesota still has yet to act, and while Floro may be a slight come up, they really haven’t improved the roster yet. A right-handed bat is still needed for Rocco Baldelli’s lineup, and at least one reliever makes sense. Although Caleb Thielbar is returning, Jovani Moran has looked shaky at best, so a southpaw could be a driving factor as well. Teams have also been calling on both Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, maybe Derek Falvey does something shocking with his depth.

As of last night, here's what the Twins were linked to courtesy of Nick Nelson.

What Does Minnesota Have
Looking at the Twins Daily Top 20 Prospects list, there are more than a few exciting names. Walker Jenkins isn’t eligible to be traded and isn’t going anywhere, and whether he’s one or two in the pecking order, Brooks Lee isn’t moving either. Beyond that, everyone should probably be on the table. Emmanuel Rodriguez could go for the right haul, and Marco Raya would be expected to bring a big return.

The outfield log jam seems to need clearing up, and deadline day could do that. Joey Gallo has to have negative value at this point, and Max Kepler has been on fire, so the two that seem most likely are Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach. Minnesota would need a good return to move either controllable players, but that is a position of depth. Maybe Jorge Polanco has appeal being an impending free agent, but the Twins seem most well-positioned to grab players that would require more mid-level prospects in exchange.

After swinging big on names like Tyler Mahle, Michael Fulmer, and Jorge Lopez last season, this would probably be best categorized as a boring trade deadline. In a bad division though, they don’t need substantial moves, and making the playoffs gives them an opportunity to make noise. With strong pitching, they could have just enough to eek out a series or two come October.

Names to Watch for Minnesota

• Teoscar Hernandez - Seattle Mariners
• Tommy Pham - New York Mets
• Harrison Bader - New York Yankees 
• Brooks Raley - New York Mets
• Kyle Finnegan - Washington Nationals
• David Bednar - Pittsburgh Pirates
• Paul Goldschmidt - St. Louis Cardinals
• Josh Hader - San Diego Padres
• Brad Hand - Colorado Rockies

Make sure to check back often today and keep up on the discussion. Look for updates at Twins Daily, Brewer Fanatic, and North Side Baseball throughout the day. Who do you think still gets moved, and who do you want to see wearing a new uniform when the dust settles?

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[Rik19753]

Quote

With strong pitching, they could have just enough to eek out a series or two come October.

If this is the FO's line of thinking I despise it. The goal isn't to be one and done in the playoffs. It's to win the World Series. Sure, as a fan, I'd rather the Twins make the playoffs than miss it, and I'd definitely like them to end their playoff losing streak. But when you are content with the upside of the team being winning one series in the playoffs, that is a seriously flawed mindset.

We either go all in or we sell. There should be no middle ground. Either go get a Goldschmidt, an Arenado, a Hader, and commit to the season. Or sell Gray, Maeda, Kepler, whoever. The Guardians sold. The Angels bought. Just pick a side and stick to it.

[Doctor Wu]

Well, unless my clock is broken, the trade deadline came and went. I didn't expect much action from the Twins, but nothing at all? (I'm not including the Lopez-Floro trade earlier in the week). A bit puzzling, and more than frustrating. Maybe, just maybe, if all our "star" players stay healthy and start performing better, we have a chance to win a playoff game or two (assuming that we can even win this lame division), but I'm feeling very pessimistic right now. 

[Hashim]

They could’ve gotten David Robertson for 2 very young players in FCL or Single A like the Marlins just did. Why are they just sitting there. We need bullpen help and a RH outfielder. Get Adam Duvall and Brad Hand from the Rockies. 

[mickster]

6 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

Well, unless my clock is broken, the trade deadline came and went. I didn't expect much action from the Twins, but nothing at all? (I'm not including the Lopez-Floro trade earlier in the week). A bit puzzling, and more than frustrating. Maybe, just maybe, if all our "star" players stay healthy and start performing better, we have a chance to win a playoff game or two (assuming that we can even win this lame division), but I'm feeling very pessimistic right now. 

 

6 minutes ago, Hashim said:

They could’ve gotten David Robertson for 2 very young players in FCL or Single A like the Marlins just did. Why are they just sitting there. We need bullpen help and a RH outfielder. Get Adam Duvall and Brad Hand from the Rockies. 

 

6 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

Well, unless my clock is broken, the trade deadline came and went. I didn't expect much action from the Twins, but nothing at all? (I'm not including the Lopez-Floro trade earlier in the week). A bit puzzling, and more than frustrating. Maybe, just maybe, if all our "star" players stay healthy and start performing better, we have a chance to win a playoff game or two (assuming that we can even win this lame division), but I'm feeling very pessimistic right now. 

 

7 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

Well, unless my clock is broken, the trade deadline came and went. I didn't expect much action from the Twins, but nothing at all? (I'm not including the Lopez-Floro trade earlier in the week). A bit puzzling, and more than frustrating. Maybe, just maybe, if all our "star" players stay healthy and start performing better, we have a chance to win a playoff game or two (assuming that we can even win this lame division), but I'm feeling very pessimistic right now. 

Still 13 hours until the deadline

[Doctor Wu]

2 minutes ago, mickster said:

 

 

 

Still 13 hours until the deadline

Really? Well hell, then I certainly do need a new clock, or pay closer attention to the deadline!

[Mike Sixel]

34 minutes ago, mickster said:

 

 

 

Still 13 hours until the deadline

What's left to buy?

[mickster]

18 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

What's left to buy?

I am expecting either Hernandez from Seattle or Bader from NY.    Bader and Peralta from NYY for Larnach is a possibility.   Other option is a shocker and would create some real buzz - Polanco, Larnach, Gray or Maeda, Martin to STL for Goldschimdt

[terrydactyls]

34 minutes ago, mickster said:

I am expecting either Hernandez from Seattle or Bader from NY.    Bader and Peralta from NYY for Larnach is a possibility.   Other option is a shocker and would create some real buzz - Polanco, Larnach, Gray or Maeda, Martin to STL for Goldschimdt

St. Louis is a seller so why would they want anyone on an expiring contract?

[Ted Schwerzler]

4 hours ago, Rik19753 said:

If this is the FO's line of thinking I despise it. The goal isn't to be one and done in the playoffs. It's to win the World Series. Sure, as a fan, I'd rather the Twins make the playoffs than miss it, and I'd definitely like them to end their playoff losing streak. But when you are content with the upside of the team being winning one series in the playoffs, that is a seriously flawed mindset.

We either go all in or we sell. There should be no middle ground. Either go get a Goldschmidt, an Arenado, a Hader, and commit to the season. Or sell Gray, Maeda, Kepler, whoever. The Guardians sold. The Angels bought. Just pick a side and stick to it.

I don't think that's how it works though. You need three strong starters in the postseason and the Twins appear to have that. There are no guarantees in this sport, and acting like mortgaging the future guarantees anything is shortsighted. The Mets spent $100M more than any other team and are selling off halfway through the season. One team wins a World Series every year, and it's rarely the best team from any given point during the season. Position yourself to make it into the postseason, and then see where the chips fall. Any team can get hot for a month.

[Ted Schwerzler]

2 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Well, unless my clock is broken, the trade deadline came and went. I didn't expect much action from the Twins, but nothing at all? (I'm not including the Lopez-Floro trade earlier in the week). A bit puzzling, and more than frustrating. Maybe, just maybe, if all our "star" players stay healthy and start performing better, we have a chance to win a playoff game or two (assuming that we can even win this lame division), but I'm feeling very pessimistic right now. 

Your clock is broken. The deadline is 8/1 at 5pm

[Ted Schwerzler]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

What's left to buy?

Start here:

Names to Watch for Minnesota

• Teoscar Hernandez - Seattle Mariners
• Tommy Pham - New York Mets
• Harrison Bader - New York Yankees 
• Brooks Raley - New York Mets
• Kyle Finnegan - Washington Nationals
• David Bednar - Pittsburgh Pirates
• Paul Goldschmidt - St. Louis Cardinals
• Josh Hader - San Diego Padres
• Brad Hand - Colorado Rockies

Go here: 

 

[Ted Schwerzler]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

St. Louis is a seller so why would they want anyone on an expiring contract?

If pitchers are going to St. Louis, it's going to be along the lines of Varland, Festa, Raya, etc.

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, mickster said:

Other option is a shocker and would create some real buzz - Polanco, Larnach, Gray or Maeda, Martin to STL for Goldschimdt

May need to throw in Duensing.

[Hashim]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

St. Louis is a seller so why would they want anyone on an expiring contract?

STL can definitely resign Gray and Maeda if they want. They're a first class organization, especially in FA. I don't think that package will get Goldschmidt or Arenado though. 

[Hashim]

2 hours ago, mickster said:

I am expecting either Hernandez from Seattle or Bader from NY.    Bader and Peralta from NYY for Larnach is a possibility.   Other option is a shocker and would create some real buzz - Polanco, Larnach, Gray or Maeda, Martin to STL for Goldschimdt

I would be shocked if STL traded Goldschmidt or Arenado, and especially for that package. They're definitely going to want top/top prospects for Goldschmidt or Arenado. It's already been mentioned everywhere they're just retooling for next year and are not going to trade their top hitters. They want pitching in return for some of their lower tier hitters like De Jong and others. 

[Rik19753]

39 minutes ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

I don't think that's how it works though. You need three strong starters in the postseason and the Twins appear to have that. There are no guarantees in this sport, and acting like mortgaging the future guarantees anything is shortsighted. The Mets spent $100M more than any other team and are selling off halfway through the season. One team wins a World Series every year, and it's rarely the best team from any given point during the season. Position yourself to make it into the postseason, and then see where the chips fall. Any team can get hot for a month.

I would agree with you if the Twins were in 1st place in a normal division. Unfortunately, they aren't. They have the 6th worst record in the AL despite the fact that they have the advantage of playing a softer schedule. Teams with better or similar records are selling. Why shouldn't the Twins?

The 'every team has a chance' adage only holds true because playoff teams are, in most cases, the cream of the crop. A 90 win team can get hot and reel off 3 series wins against 100 win teams. But if we were to imagine a world in which the Athletics were somehow awarded a playoff spot with the team that they have now, should they be buying because 'anything can happen in the playoffs'? No, they shouldn't. At some point a line has to be drawn and we need to be realistic.

It's not like trading Maeda, Gray and Kepler means completely punting on the season. Their odds of winning the World Series are just going to go down from something like 0.5% to 0.4%. We don't need to cling to that 0.1%.