Pipe Dreams: Juan Soto

[nicksaviking]

https://nypost.com/2023/07/27/mlb-trade-deadline-biggest-names-left-on-the-market/

The Padre tear down is inevitable; I thought it would be after 2024 but maybe, they start with one now?

I have a real distaste for the half-season hero's that are currently being floated around as trade targets. Everyone wants a right handed bat, and Soto is another lefty, but does that really matter if he hits .824 against lefties? 

Clearly he would cost more than anyone could stomach, but I don't want half measures. I HATE half measures. From my view, guys like Jeimar Candelerio, Lane Thomas, CJ Cron  and Adam Duvall do not win this team a championship and that is the only thing I care about at this point in my fandom. But Soto might be that guy to put the team over the top. Heck, with this rotation, he might make them a front runner parked in the #3 spot in the lineup with the team's other young bats feeding off the momentum of such an all-in move.

Could the Twins get him? I doubt it, I think they'd need some top pitching prospects, and the best the Twins could do is offer Ryan or Ober, who I think that would be counter productive to part with this year.  BUT, if the Padres were willing to listen with a package headlined with Lewis or Lee and some combination (heck all of) Larnach, Varland, Encarnacion, SWR, Festa, Winder, or whomever they have an eye on would probably have me nodding in agreement.

I honestly think 2024 is the year this team should be chasing because I think the young guys who are currently leading the team need a year to learn how to carry the load, but Soto would be here next year. 2023 could be the build up to 2024 being a legit contender. 

[tony&rodney]

It is impossible to know what Preller is thinking. San Diego has a need for some outfielders (Larnach, Celestino) and pitchers (SWR, Festa, Varland). That doesn't seem like enough but the Twins don't have much to trade unless they offer up folks like Ryan or Kirilloff and that seems counterproductive. I think the Twins are sitting this one out. It would be fun though. 

[cmoss84]

Nick. Same boat here. If we are going to make a trade...make a trade. Any of Soto, Polar Bear, Goldy, Arenado (and to a lesser extent Bellinger) would be amazing. Don't care who we give up on the farm. Or if Buxton wants fresh start.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Problem with Soto is that he's a free agent in 2024 and there's no way the Twins could re-sign him. Gutting the system for 1.5 years of Soto - meh, not really feeling it. 

[laloesch]

11 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

It is impossible to know what Preller is thinking. San Diego has a need for some outfielders (Larnach, Celestino) and pitchers (SWR, Festa, Varland). That doesn't seem like enough but the Twins don't have much to trade unless they offer up folks like Ryan or Kirilloff and that seems counterproductive. I think the Twins are sitting this one out. It would be fun though. 

SWR is pretty much a worthless addition to that deal combination.  His minor league stats are atrocious. I don't understand the fascination with him.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, laloesch said:

SWR is pretty much a worthless addition to that deal combination.  His minor league stats are atrocious. I don't understand the fascination with him.

Neither do I understand how SWR is viewed. He seems to have a great personality, I guess. Still we traded Berrios for him and Martin, so who knows what San Diego thinks about him or any Twin.

[Cap'n Piranha]

I'd be happy with Soto as a Twin, but I have to think SD's price starts with Lee, Ober, and a player to be named later (that player being Walker Jenkins).  Just last year the Padres gave up Gore, Abrams, Hassell (and more) for Soto--sure he has less control now, but a trade of Soto essentially means the Padres are entering a rebuild-type phase.  That's a hard sell to a team with a top 3 payroll, which means they're going to demand a huge return.  Quasi-established MLB players/AAAA guys are not going to get it down, even if there's 8 of them.

[brockbesler]

1 hour ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I'd be happy with Soto as a Twin, but I have to think SD's price starts with Lee, Ober, and a player to be named later (that player being Walker Jenkins).  Just last year the Padres gave up Gore, Abrams, Hassell (and more) for Soto--sure he has less control now, but a trade of Soto essentially means the Padres are entering a rebuild-type phase.  That's a hard sell to a team with a top 3 payroll, which means they're going to demand a huge return.  Quasi-established MLB players/AAAA guys are not going to get it down, even if there's 8 of them.

I think you hit the nail on the head here. The only way the twins should consider this, is if they can extend Soto and that’s not happening.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I'd be happy with Soto as a Twin, but I have to think SD's price starts with Lee, Ober, and a player to be named later (that player being Walker Jenkins).  Just last year the Padres gave up Gore, Abrams, Hassell (and more) for Soto--sure he has less control now, but a trade of Soto essentially means the Padres are entering a rebuild-type phase.  That's a hard sell to a team with a top 3 payroll, which means they're going to demand a huge return.  Quasi-established MLB players/AAAA guys are not going to get it down, even if there's 8 of them.

The quasi-established players are always the last pieces included.

I'd not like to trade Lee, but honestly, unless one of them plays CF, I think Lee and Lewis are going to struggle find room together on this team. I wouldn't be opposed to trading one, IF it was a super star kind of transaction. I also wouldn't want to trade Ober or Ryan. I also don't like Dallas Keuchel in the rotation, but I suppose if I had to add one, I'd consider it, only because the Twins would likely still win the division with that rotation and than come playoffs, Keuchel would be of no need anyway.

I doubt SD ends up selling this year, but when they do finally move their big name players, those blockbuster trades for elite players almost never work out for the sellers. I'd guess which ever team gets Soto or Machado or Tatis or Musgrove will easily come out on top.