Business of Baseball: Gibson, Hicks, Arcia

[Mike Sixel]

Alright, MWW, you win... call up Buxton and Sano right now... I'm good with that.

 

 

again, thankfully I'm on mute. I've not asked for that, but I can understand your frustration with my posts here. I'll take a break, but then people need to not ask me questions.....

[gunnarthor]

On a side note, is it my imagination or do we have a bunch of guys we want to push to 1B, DH or corner OF spots and not nearly enough people to play the more skilled spots...

 

No, it's a bit of a problem. Sano and Harrison might not stick at 3rd. Rosario (looking better) is still an experiment at 2nd and Polanco/Michael behind him. Santana might be a shortstop. We have CF covered with Hicks/Buxton but I don't know if we have any good catching prospects coming up. Maybe the AA guy?

[Seth Stohs]

In reality, I think there is a chance that Miguel Sano will be with the Twins on Opening Day next year, or more likely before June. As for Buxton, I think he'll be one year behind, as early as Opening Day 2015. I know you want them up now, but I think that having a couple of 21-22 year olds up is pretty good.

 

The Twins haven't had a prospect like these two since the days of Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Liriano, Cuddyer (all of whom had pretty fast tracks to the big leagues with the Twins, a couple of whom had to be sent back a time or two before it clicked). Gibson, without the Tommy John would have been up in a year and a half after being drafted. That's not slow.

 

each player is so different, and you can't just look at the numbers. Sano has extreme confidence, which I like. I believe he will be the Twins 3B sometime early next year. As a 21 year old. If he's 22, oh well. The Twins will get him until he's 28! They'll get his best years.

 

Buxton is very fast, but personality-wise, he's very Mauer-like. Mauer spent two years in the minor leagues before being the team's Opening Day starter. That's flying, and if Buxton is on the same path, he would be up on Opening Day 2015. If Buxton takes the Machado route, he'll be promoted to Ft. Myers soon, play there the rest of this year, and be called up next July. Sounds good to me. Though, in the big picture, whether he's called up in July 2014 or May 2015 just doesn't mean a whole lot of difference to me.

 

Mark McGwire spent basically two years in the minors and he was drafted out of USC and played in the Olympics. I just don't understand the rush.

[Mike Sixel]

Last comment....the rush for me:

 

I don't like watching bad baseball players. I don't want 2014 to look like this year, which is looking like a complete and utter waste of a year. The sooner the great players are up, the sooner they are effective*

 

*admittedly, not everyone agrees with my theory here....

[Turd Furgeson]

I think you missed the point....Buxton and Sano sit in A ball, while Machado is up. Name the great Twins they've developed in teh last 5 years, the process is NOT working.

 

So any team that hasn't developed a great player in the last 5 years, you can say the process isn't working?

 

The process worked exceptionally well when they developed great players like Mauer, Santana. When's the last time Baltimore developed a player like that? Is the process truly working for Baltimore?

[Turd Furgeson]

Who would have recognized the impactful talent of Machado based on his numbers and age. Who would have been saying, forget the numbers, bring him up, skip AA, the 20 year old can handle it?

 

Well considering that he was continuously ranked in the top 15 on a lot of prospect lists, I'd say a number of people recognized the talent. He was a high draft pick. The numbers aren't great, but you know what Bryce Harper wasn't blowing people away at all times in the minors either, he hit well in low A but was just decent in AA and AAA. There's a lot more to determining whether a player is ready than just the numbers. Yeah, if a player has video game stats you can say, he's clearly outperforming his competition but there may be other subtle things that stop someone from being promoted.

[Otto von Ballpark]

In reality, I think there is a chance that Miguel Sano will be with the Twins on Opening Day next year, or more likely before June. As for Buxton, I think he'll be one year behind, as early as Opening Day 2015.

 

I'm going to say that both of those scenarios (Sano in MLB on Opening Day 2014, Buxton 2015) are extremely unlikely. Really, only Mauer was on a track that fast in recent Twins history, and he was very polished in all aspects of his game. Remember, Sano is still K'ing in 25% of his PAs, Buxton almost 20%. That, plus Sano's defense... I just don't see the Twins promoting these guys that aggressively.

 

I think neither one will appear in MLB before their age-22 season (2015 for Sano, 2016 for Buxton). That would put them more on the Morneau/Kubel/Cuddyer path.

[Turd Furgeson]

The problem was just stated, they haven't had many top prospects.

 

Hicks has never been viewed in the same way as Buxton and Sano. Heck, some teams wanted to make him a pitcher. Same with Arcia. Sano could be hitting in AA or AAA or maybe even the majors right now. They'd rather have him practice being a 3B. That's their choice, but it does not mean people can't be frustrated by that. NONE of this fandom stuff is rational.....none of it.

 

They wanted to make him a pitcher because his arm is amazing. Some people wanted to make Buxton a pitcher as well.

 

If "the process" can be defined, it was going after players over slot in the draft. You need to get the talented players. After you've done that, really, the development and such is mostly going to come on the player's end. It takes time, and they need to be challenged at each level but that's where it is. Now that there is a hard slot, you basically have to sign those types of players. Who knows, in years past we may have passed on a guy on Buxton and that would have been tragic.

[mikelink45]

We have so many players burn out by their early 30's that it is foolish to worry about retaining the player 5 years down the line. Tampa Bay brings them up, plays them, trades them. If we are so worried about five - six years instead of the next few Mauer years we are not being logical. Play the best players, work out trades, contracts, etc in the future and not now. If they are healthy they have trade value if nothing else, but if they burn out in the minors we get nothing. The product that is now on the field cannot motivate me and I have been watching the Twins since I was an usher at the 1961 team opener. This team is boring.

[ThePuck]

Well considering that he was continuously ranked in the top 15 on a lot of prospect lists, I'd say a number of people recognized the talent. He was a high draft pick. The numbers aren't great, but you know what Bryce Harper wasn't blowing people away at all times in the minors either, he hit well in low A but was just decent in AA and AAA. There's a lot more to determining whether a player is ready than just the numbers. Yeah, if a player has video game stats you can say, he's clearly outperforming his competition but there may be other subtle things that stop someone from being promoted.

 

What does the prospect list have to do with what our fans are thinking, exactly?

 

I think you are missing the point. If he was in OUR organization...based on defending arguments we hear/read all the time by OUR FANS about why our position players move at the pace they do in OUR organization (age, stats at levels)...

 

Oh, I give up...it's too exhausting...

[Shane Wahl]

I like the Pujols defensive 1B comp for Sano. Dear lord that would be nice.

 

About "skill" positions, see my second base analysis on my blog (I apparently need to advertise it). There are a lot of guys who are middle infield types who are actually having good years. KNOCK ON WOOD. Beresford, Santana, Michael (hopefully), Rosario (clearly), Polanco, and perhaps Goodrum (who I see as a potential third baseman down the road).

[Turd Furgeson]

What does the prospect list have to do with what our fans are thinking, exactly?

 

I think you are missing the point. If he was in OUR organization...based on defending arguments we hear/read all the time by OUR FANS about why our position players move at the pace they do in OUR organization (age, stats at levels)...

 

Oh, I give up...it's too exhausting...

 

Well, given that you're speaking to people who frequent a Twins message board and that seems to be the fans you're referring to, they probably have a decent grasp of the prospect rankings of their own prospects. They probably realize that they might have the talent to jump levels quicker than a lot of others.

 

The bottom line, we haven't had a Machado level prospect in our system since Mauer, or more recently Buxton. Buxton's first full year in the minors, he's starting in low A, and he'll almost undoubtedly receive a midseason promotion to high A. Next year, he could start in AA or, he'll be in AA by a midseason promotion. With the likelihood of him making it to the majors the year after.

 

All in all, that would be moving through the minors just as fast as Machado did. I'm not really sure what the problem is. Did you expect Hicks to be pushed through the minor league system inspite of the fact that he wasn't ready? You are looking at Machado and comparing him to players like Sano, Rosario and Hicks and complaining that they aren't moving through the levels at equal speeds. The reality is that all of them are on their own development path and none of them are as good of a prospect as Machado.

 

You guys are aiming your criticism in the wrong direction. The problem was the unwillingness to spend money in the draft. Teams that spend money in the draft, generally get good prospects. The Twins have been quite active in the international free agent market, but this hard slotting system in the draft has benefited a team like the Twins, as it forces them to spend money.

[Shane Wahl]

Fort Myers double header today. Sano with one bomb in the first game and one in the first inning of the second game.

[stringer bell]

The comment about Sano's defense falling off--does that have to do with errors or scouting reports? Errors can come from a lot of things like throwing to unoccuplied bases or hitting sliding baserunners and they can be reduced drastically by a decent first baseman (ask Pedro Florimon). IIRC, many if not most of Sano's errors have come on throws and his number of errors has little if anything to do with hands or range.

[drjim]

Who would have recognized the impactful talent of Machado based on his numbers and age. Who would have been saying, forget the numbers, bring him up, skip AA, the 20 year old can handle it?

 

Maybe this is yet another example that merely looking at a stat line doesn't tell you everything.

 

Scouts thought it was a little quick for his bat last year (it was altough he wasn't crushed) and his elite defense played up.

[Shane Wahl]

I don't really feel like going game-by-game to see the nature of the Sano errors. I think it's a mix. I understand that he has the athleticism to play third. So do a lot of people.

[jay]

We have so many players burn out by their early 30's that it is foolish to worry about retaining the player 5 years down the line. Tampa Bay brings them up, plays them, trades them.

 

Except they don't. Wil Myers is in AAA right now for this exact reason. Of all teams, they are especially conscious of the economics.

[Shane Wahl]

Except they don't. Wil Myers is in AAA right now for this exact reason. Of all teams, they are especially conscious of the economics.

 

However, they DID do that with Delmon. And the rest is history . . .

[snepp]

Delmon was a little different though. He signed a major league contract after the draft and was out of options by the time he was 21.

[ThePuck]

However, they DID do that with Delmon. And the rest is history . . .

 

Young signed a major league contract upon being drafted. He HAD to be rushed, cause he was on the 40 man right from the start.

[ThePuck]

Delmon was a little different though. He signed a major league contract after the draft and was out of options by the time he was 21.

 

Sorry, got interrupted when writing my post, didn't see you had already responded. :-)

[Shane Wahl]

Well that was a strangely stupid decision by the Rays!

 

(thanks for pointing that out, so nevermind)

[jay]

However, they DID do that with Delmon. And the rest is history . . .

 

Good ol' Delmon. Delmon was young, but he followed the same pattern that many Rays do... he was called up August 29th.

 

It seems a bit ridiculous to be worried about getting 2 weeks out of a guy (maybe 3 starts) at the MLB level when we're talking about him contributing for at least the next 6 years and that decision could potentially cost millions of dollars. That argument is even stronger when we're talking about an extra year of control.

[jokin]

Well, given that you're speaking to people who frequent a Twins message board and that seems to be the fans you're referring to, they probably have a decent grasp of the prospect rankings of their own prospects. They probably realize that they might have the talent to jump levels quicker than a lot of others.

 

The bottom line, we haven't had a Machado level prospect in our system since Mauer, or more recently Buxton. Buxton's first full year in the minors, he's starting in low A, and he'll almost undoubtedly receive a midseason promotion to high A. Next year, he could start in AA or, he'll be in AA by a midseason promotion. With the likelihood of him making it to the majors the year after.

 

1) All in all, that would be moving through the minors just as fast as Machado did. I'm not really sure what the problem is. Did you expect Hicks to be pushed through the minor league system inspite of the fact that he wasn't ready? 2) You are looking at Machado and comparing him to players like Sano, Rosario and Hicks and complaining that they aren't moving through the levels at equal speeds. The reality is that all of them are on their own development path and none of them are as good of a prospect as Machado.

You guys are aiming your criticism in the wrong direction. 3)The problem was the unwillingness to spend money in the draft. Teams that spend money in the draft, generally get good prospects. The Twins have been quite active in the international free agent market, but this hard slotting system in the draft has benefited a team like the Twins, as it forces them to spend money.

 

1) Not quite as fast, to be equivalent developmentally, Buxton would need to called up next August. That's my preference, get him 50 games in 2014 to have him ready to hit the ground running in 2015 and try to avoid a Hicks-type debut.

 

2) Sano could never have Machado's glove, but I'm still hopeful that Sano can be the superior long-term prospect, and have a Pujols type of career, which I think WAR-wise would edge out Machado (assuming he ends up at the premium SS position, which is still in doubt).

 

3) Very fair point, one I've railed on for years. But I still have the sneaking suspicion that the Twins international prospects would be moving up faster in other organizations.

[snepp]

Well that was a strangely stupid decision by the Rays!

 

I think it was part of his agent's pre-draft hostage taking maneuver. Major league deal, or we won't sign.

 

This was one of the better changes in the draft rules, no more major league deals for draftees.

[jokin]

Good ol' Delmon. Delmon was young, but he followed the same pattern that many Rays do... he was called up August 29th.

 

It seems a bit ridiculous to be worried about getting 2 weeks out of a guy (maybe 3 starts) at the MLB level when we're talking about him contributing for at least the next 6 years and that decision could potentially cost millions of dollars. That argument is even stronger when we're talking about an extra year of control.

 

The "control thing" is far down the Rays list of concerns, for most of their players, they are on tradewatch from the day they first put on a major league uniform. They are already shopping David Price around even with 2 more years of team control.

[jay]

The "control thing" is far down the Rays list of concerns, for most of their players, they are on tradewatch from the day they first put on a major league uniform. They are already shopping David Price around even with 2 more years of team control.

 

Can't say I agree with you on the first part. A baseball player (or asset, if you prefer) is certainly more valuable with more years of control. If your immediate outlook is to maximize trade value, you'd certainly make decisions to support that.

[jokin]

I think it was part of his agent's pre-draft hostage taking maneuver. Major league deal, or we won't sign.

 

This was one of the better changes in the draft rules, no more major league deals for draftees.

 

I never understood how the agents were able to sneak the "Bonus Baby" rule back into the system in the first place. The players union must have been asleep there for awhile.

[jokin]

Can't say I agree with you on the first part. A baseball player (or asset, if you prefer) is certainly more valuable with more years of control. If your immediate outlook is to maximize trade value, you'd certainly make decisions to support that.

 

Misses the Rays point. They appear to want their prized talent on the field ASAP, to maximize the still-undetermined "ceiling potential" added to potential trade value. I think they think they are better off having a talented, but inexperienced player on the roster with large, and potentially growing, trade value over a higher-priced veteran with shrinking trade value.

[jay]

Misses the Rays point. They appear to want their prized talent on the field ASAP, to maximize the still-undetermined "ceiling potential" added to potential trade value. I think they think they are better off having a talented, but inexperienced player on the roster with large, and potentially growing, trade value over a higher-priced veteran with shrinking trade value.

 

That seems subjective -- where have they done this? Most of their stars get call ups after a point in the year where control issues aren't a concern -- and that's what we're debating here.

 

Jennings - Sept 1, Zobrist - Aug 1, Price - Sept 14, Moore - Sept 14, Hellickson - Aug 2. Longoria was the exception (April 12), but was an injury replacement. And they haven't called up their top prospects Myers, Odorizzi, Archer, or Lee.