Business of Baseball: Gibson, Hicks, Arcia

[drjim]

Everyone keeps saying Machado is some kind of aberration....of the top 10 in WAR last year, 7 were up before they were 22 (if I remember the mini study I did right). Elite players come up earlier than regular players, and Sano is an elite player, imo. I can redo that work again if people want, or do it for more years.....but elite players come up at 19-22 years old, because they are elite and ready and teams want them up here producing.

 

And Sano is 20 right now. Barring injury he will easily be up in that range too.

[Mike Sixel]

And Sano is 20 right now. Barring injury he will easily be up in that range too.

 

 

Hope you are right.....

[Turd Furgeson]

Sano and Machado are not comparable. Machado is an American born player. Sano is a international signee and they typically take longer to develop. Sano will be up before he's 22. Sano also JUST turned 20. His birthday is in May. He'll be up when he's 21, barring some freak regression or injury.

[drjim]

Sano and Machado are not comparable. Machado is an American born player. Sano is a international signee and they typically take longer to develop. Sano will be up before he's 22. Sano also JUST turned 20. His birthday is in May. He'll be up when he's 21, barring some freak regression or injury.

 

Barring injury, I think he is up before 21.

[jokin]

After last season Sano should have started in A+, there is no way he should have started higher. He's been killing it at A+ so I would expect/hope they promote him to AA in the near future but I don't think it makes much difference if they wait until after the June draft, which is likely.

 

I'm not against pushing prospects but to say.. "The Twins suck, lets see how our prospects in A & AA would do in the majors" isn't a good solution(IMHO).

 

"No way?" I think there was a strong case made last year ( I was just one of many) that the Twins were slow-playing Sano last year by opting him for a full-year assignment in low-A Beloit- to Sano's devlopmental detriment. Sano could have spent half the year in Ft Myers last year- much better facilities, better training and weather conditions to play in, superior coaching, opposing pitchers that would pitch at him and not around him as happened in Beloit, etc. I think the proof of this supposition is represented in how well he's doing this year in Ft Myers.

 

The glove is what's holding him back, but playing 3rd base is a skill that can be developed along the way (the better fields in Florida would have aided in that aim), most importantly, his lack of defensive acumen to this point hasn't affected his hitting prowess whatsoever. If the Twins had fast-tracked Sano to have started this season at New Britain instead of Ft Myers- and if he had been killing it anywhere near like he is now, the current open spot at 3B on the Twins would at least have been a consideration for Sano to get a short-term shot at trying out.

 

This season is obviously lost anyway, using this year and perhaps next to get the real prospects chances to acclimate themselves to the majors gives the team a fighting chance to make a legit run in 2015.

[jokin]

Barring injury, I think he is up before 21.

 

September call-up should certainly be in the cards at this point.

[ThePuck]

"No way?" I think there was a strong case made last year ( I was just one of many) that the Twins were slow-playing Sano last year by opting him for a full-year assignment in low-A Beloit- to Sano's devlopmental detriment. Sano could have spent half the year in Ft Myers last year- much better facilities, better training and weather conditions to play in, superior coaching, opposing pitchers that would pitch at him and not around him as happened in Beloit, etc. I think the proof of this supposition is represented in how well he's doing this year in Ft Myers.

 

The glove is what's holding him back, but playing 3rd base is a skill that can be developed along the way (the better fields in Florida would have aided in that aim), most importantly, his lack of defensive acumen to this point hasn't affected his hitting prowess whatsoever. If the Twins had fast-tracked Sano to have started this season at New Britain instead of Ft Myers- and if he had been killing it anywhere near like he is now, the current open spot at 3B on the Twins would at least have been a consideration for Sano to get a short-term shot at trying out.

 

This season is obviously lost anyway, using this year and perhaps next to get the real prospects chances to acclimate themselves to the majors gives the team a fighting chance to make a legit run in 2015.

 

Braun was historically bad on defense his rookie year (and he was horrible on defense in the minors too)...got moved from 3B after one season. He's a heck of a player.

[jokin]

Braun was historically bad on defense his rookie year (and he was horrible on defense in the minors too)...got moved from 3B after one season. He's a heck of a player.

 

The point being, you find a place for elite players that mash to play....Braun, Cabrera, Fielder....Sano...let's go already.

[jokin]

Machado is better than Sano, simple as that. He was a better prospect and he is a better player. He is a more advanced hitter and fielder. Sano has more power, but is still working through contact issues. Sano doesn't have an MLB position and Machado has several. The Orioles were also a contending team last year, and the Twins aren't right now.

 

Machado is the youngest player in the American League. He's a freak; he's an outlier.

 

So, on a smaller scale- Twins version of fast-track- would you argue that Aderlin Mejia is our Machado? That is, is it his "freaky" ability (Twins-version of freaky, mind you) that Mejia qualified to go straight from Low-rookie ball to A+, skipping 2 steps in the process, but Sano had to do the year-on-year single step progressions?

[jokin]

Using an example from tonight. I knew Rick Porcello was young. I went through his numbers tonight and I didn't realize that he was in the Tigers rotation all year for Detroit at the age of 20- this after just one minor league year in A+ ball. He hasn't had a great career, but here now in his 5th year at only age 24, he'd clearly be the #2 SP on the Twins; but.....; if he had been drafted by the Twins, does anybody think he would be a 5 year veteran of the Twins rotation?

[drjim]

Using an example from tonight. I knew Rick Porcello was young. I went through his numbers tonight and I didn't realize that he was in the Tigers rotation all year for Detroit at the age of 20- this after just one minor league year in A+ ball. He hasn't had a great career, but here now in his 5th year at only age 24, he'd clearly be the #2 SP on the Twins; but.....; if he had been drafted by the Twins, does anybody think he would be a 5 year veteran of the Twins rotation?

 

I think Porcello can also be the counterexample to rushing players. He is not exactly lighting it up this year (or all that much in previous years) and he had a strong reputation when he was drafted. If Detroit had spent the time developing him he might be a much better pitcher, but since he is already 5 years in that almost certainly won't happen in Detroit.

[ThePuck]

I think Porcello can also be the counterexample to rushing players. He is not exactly lighting it up this year (or all that much in previous years) and he had a strong reputation when he was drafted. If Detroit had spent the time developing him he might be a much better pitcher, but since he is already 5 years in that almost certainly won't happen in Detroit.

 

Jeremy Bonderman part II