Reevaluating the Twins’ Long-Term Third Base Plan

[2wins87]

30 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Castro isn't better than a healthy Royce Lewis, but I would say he's a better and more versatile utility player than a healthy Nick Gordon. Gordon is likely headed for the 60-day IL, either today or when Lewis is activated and I would anticipate that Castro sticks on the major league team. I do agree that Willi Castro shouldn't be playing close to every day given his hitting stats in over three years of big league play, but he has filled in at second, short, third, left, center and right and to my knowledge he's done a decent job at each position. Gordon was shaky enough last year at second and short that the team brought in a backup shortstop and he has those decided left-right splits.

 

I don't think Gordon has a lot more upside than Castro but he does have a bit more IMO.  Castro also has an option year left, so I would still send Castro to AAA in favor of Gordon if the lineup was ever healthy enough to make it a decision.  They aren't missing out on any upside in sending Castro to AAA is my main point.

They might not ever get to the point health-wise where it becomes a decision.  If he retains his option all year then I would probably be fine keeping him around for the same role next year too.  For me he is sort of a prototypical 14th position player though, and a decent part of the reason he was worth paying the arbitration salary for is the fact that he can easily be shuttled back and forth if necessary.

[stringer bell]

1 minute ago, 2wins87 said:

I don't think Gordon has a lot more upside than Castro but he does have a bit more IMO.  Castro also has an option year left, so I would still send Castro to AAA in favor of Gordon if the lineup was ever healthy enough to make it a decision.  They aren't missing out on any upside in sending Castro to AAA is my main point.

They might not ever get to the point health-wise where it becomes a decision.  If he retains his option all year then I would probably be fine keeping him around for the same role next year too.  For me he is sort of a prototypical 14th position player though, and a decent part of the reason he was worth paying the arbitration salary for is the fact that he can easily be shuttled back and forth if necessary.

Yeah, the recovery time for a fractured shin is 4-6 months, so Nick could be done for the season. 

[umterp23]

Gordon getting injured (not a fan of injuries or losing time because of it for any player) but is a good thing for the Twins at this time.  He just wasn't hitting like he did last year, pretty simple when you look at .176 avg, .319 slugging & .504 OPS. Yes, he helps in pitching matchups by playing some CF but doesn't have a strong arm to play that position.  So tough that he suffered an injury but could be a good thing for us in long term with limited value in positions compared to others.

[Jocko87]

3 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Castro isn't better than a healthy Royce Lewis, but I would say he's a better and more versatile utility player than a healthy Nick Gordon. Gordon is likely headed for the 60-day IL, either today or when Lewis is activated and I would anticipate that Castro sticks on the major league team. I do agree that Willi Castro shouldn't be playing close to every day given his hitting stats in over three years of big league play, but he has filled in at second, short, third, left, center and right and to my knowledge he's done a decent job at each position. Gordon was shaky enough last year at second and short that the team brought in a backup shortstop and he has those decided left-right splits.

Lewis would seem to have an opportunity to play every day at third base and cement his position there. Castro can hang on as the 13th position player filling in everywhere. Perhaps Jose Miranda can hit enough to force his way back on the active roster and get Castro sent down or maybe the same could happen for Julien. 

 

I don't think we see a roster where a Castro type isn't on it. Lewis won't fill that role. Maybe Helman works his way into the discussion when he's healthy again but they value that versatility heavily with a 4 man bench. Castro needs to be evaluated differently that a standard position player as the ask is different. He's not getting good match ups or the chance scout his day at X spot. He gets the leftovers and is functional. His role is statistical sacrificial but very valuable.

[JD-TWINS]

On 5/17/2023 at 1:37 PM, Rod Carews Birthday said:

There are a few things that seem likely here, but not everything is solid and much could always change.  Particularly based on his outstanding defense this year, Correa seems likely to stay put at shortstop for the next few years.  That’s the part I feel the most confident in.

IF Lewis plays at the level we hope (and anything close to the SSS we saw last year), he could move into third base and never leave it.  OK.  Problem solved!  However much we might hope it plays out that way, it’s possible that Lewis won’t pan out or will take a while to become a good third baseman with the bat and glove. 

Miranda seems like a good player once he gets himself righted in St. Paul.  If that’s the case and Lewis works out, that’s where things get interesting.  Is he a full time DH?  That’s currently filled.  Could he be trade bait?  Is his value still high enough for that?  Are we confident enough in Lewis, Lee, et al, that we are comfortable trading him?  Miranda by himself isn’t going to bring in an ace starting pitcher, but he could be a nice part of a package, OR he might bring back a pretty solid relief pitcher.  

Brooks Lee is the latest prospect that many fans have gotten a bit too excited about.  I think he is going to be excellent, but he needs some time in the minors to learn and polish skills before he becomes the franchise savior.  Will he be a third baseman?  First or second baseman?  Outfielder?  Time will tell, but for the next two years I don’t regard him as a major factor. If his performance forces the issue before then, it qualifies as a nice problem to have.

Julien is a more difficult one to pinpoint.  He appears to have the same defensive chops as Arraez/Miranda, so his best position might be DH.  He could likely be an acceptable first or second baseman, but I don’t really see anything further up the food chain than that.  

An injury or a trade could help open up the answers to these questions, but more than anything, patience is key.  I do like the way the future looks with these guys!

 

So, I think Miranda’s only shot is to assume a role that Solano has now. Back-up 3B - RH 1B - RH pinch hitter - occasional DH.

Julien only gets reps at 2B. Almost seems he’s being groomed for a trade. With Lee & Lewis, I don’t see him getting any innings especially with the real possibility we hang in to Polanco.

With reps at 3B for Lewis at AA & AAA & Lee only playing SS at AA, it seems Lewis would be the 2nd option at 3B this year from mid-June on, along with Farmer. Either can rest CC. Farmer can rest Polanco. Right now, Farmer is probably the 3rd best hitter on the team since coming back from injury!

Julien - Martin - Lee are all behind Miranda & way behind Kiriloff at 1B. Don’t see any of them having a real opportunity there without big time injury.

[tony&rodney]

June will be a pivotal month for the Twins and their usage of a couple of younger players. Lewis will need to show he is ready before he automatically gets handed third base. Miranda will need to turn things around to get recalled. Some people have called for Brooks Lee. Have they watched his at bats for Wichita? He still has a long way to go before he is ready for MLB pitchers. June should give us all some idea of the possibilities for the remainder of the year. I'm thinking Lewis should be attuned to making his time with the Saints display his talents and he will fill third base for years. We'll see.

[Blyleven2011]

I've posted this many times and Miranda is the example here ... 

You need 3 years to evaluate  a players performance before you know exactly what that player could be ...

While everyone was excited by Miranda's  performance in 2022 with the bat , he batted nicely after his 1 day demotion  but faltered towards the end of the season , that raised concerns with me  that he could struggle in 2023 , yes he had shoulder problems in spring and it could be a factor to his messed up swing ,,, he also toned up and added muscle which could have decreased his flexibility ...

He looked dreadful and lost at defense  and hitting and was hurting the team ...

He may get it back for another try in the MLB  but could be out of baseball in a few years , it's his future to get better ...