Twins Trade Bait

[Halsey Hall]

Parmalee and Willingham, but we wouldn't get squat for them. We aren't getting squat from them now. Parmalee has proved he can't hit a fastball (everyone can hit a fastball), and needs to be sent down. Willingham is so confused he can't even swing the bat. He's killing us and has cost us some games, like last night. Bases loaded and takes a called 3rd strike when a fly ball wins the game. He needs bench time to get his head together.

[jorgenswest]

If Justin Morneau is putting up anywhere near those numbers at the deadline he'll bring back a nice prospect in the 100-200 range. Those kinds of numbers equate to an OPS somewhere between .825-.850.

 

For comparison RF Hunter Pence (29 when traded last year) had an OPS of .743 at the trade deadline and a history of .800+ OPS's. He brought back two top 50 prospects plus a throw in. Pence was under control for 2013 as well and a couple of years younger than Morneau.

 

Shane Victorino OPS'ing .724 before the deadline last year brought back a borderline top 100 prospect, a decent relief pitcher and a throw in.

 

If Morneau just flirts with .800 I think he'll be worth a 100-200 type prospect. I would love it if the Twins got a young guy in A ball with some upside a la Polanco or Kepler in the Twins system.

 

I appreciate comps when discussing trades. It keeps the discussion more realistic.

 

Let's start with Pence. Given his age and control, he is likely more valuable than Morneau and Willingham. They were also fortunate to find a trade partner in the Giants who have a history of overpaying at the deadline.

 

The Giants traded Tommy Joseph, Seth Rosin and Nate Schierholtz (not a prospect).

 

I look to the baseball cube as they keep a history of both team and top 100 prospects lists from baseball america.

 

Entering last season, Joseph was the #2 Giant prospect according to BBA (in previous years 10 and 6 but the Giants had traded away prospects in the Beltran trade). He was not in the top 100 and had never made the list. Sickels has had him as a C+/B- prospect which probably doesn't put him close to the top 100.

 

Seth Rosin (from University of Minnesota) was in high A-Ball pitching in relief and spot starts. He was old for the league and never made any prospect list. His grade from Sickels was a C+ in 2012.

 

Not sure where the two top 50 prospects were in the trade.

 

Victorino netted Ethan Martin. He did not make the Dodgers top 10 entering last season (although he had in 2011). Given that he didn't make his own teams top 10 and there are 30 teams, I would think that would put him a long way from the border of the top 100. His grade from Sickels in 2012 was a C.

 

While they are fair comps (Pence's value given age and control probably better than Morneau), I don't see the top 100 return.

 

It might show that we can an expect a C+/B- prospect at the high end.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

I appreciate comps when discussing trades. It keeps the discussion more realistic.

 

Let's start with Pence. Given his age and control, he is likely more valuable than Morneau and Willingham. They were also fortunate to find a trade partner in the Giants who have a history of overpaying at the deadline.

 

Not sure where the two top 50 prospects were in the trade.

 

He's not talking about the Pence trade to the Giants. He's talking about when Pence was traded to the Phillies from Houston. That netted the Astros Jarred Cosart and Jonathan Singleton who were both widely considered top 50 prospects at the time. They got another pitcher as part of the deal too.

[Snortwood]

Willingham's value is actually increasing as the cost of taking him on declines so long as his abilities don't drop off the table. My take on it is he's in a bad stretch and hasn't gone south, he's got another few seasons in him - bat speed is still there.

 

But - he's a DH, and a valuable RH off the bench. For once the Twins are doing the right thing giving playing time to Arcia and Parmelee and taking it away from Doumit and occasionally Josh.

[jorgenswest]

He's not talking about the Pence trade to the Giants. He's talking about when Pence was traded to the Phillies from Houston. That netted the Astros Jarred Cosart and Jonathan Singleton who were both widely considered top 50 prospects at the time. They got another pitcher as part of the deal too.

 

If so, then he was 28 at the time of the trade. The 2011 season was also one where he had just played in the all star game and carried an OPS far greater than .743. No one would suggest that would be a good comparison to Morneau. All of the data he cited matches 2012.

[Oxtung]

I appreciate comps when discussing trades. It keeps the discussion more realistic.

 

Let's start with Pence. Given his age and control, he is likely more valuable than Morneau and Willingham. They were also fortunate to find a trade partner in the Giants who have a history of overpaying at the deadline.

 

The Giants traded Tommy Joseph, Seth Rosin and Nate Schierholtz (not a prospect).

 

I look to the baseball cube as they keep a history of both team and top 100 prospects lists from baseball america.

 

Entering last season, Joseph was the #2 Giant prospect according to BBA (in previous years 10 and 6 but the Giants had traded away prospects in the Beltran trade). He was not in the top 100 and had never made the list. Sickels has had him as a C+/B- prospect which probably doesn't put him close to the top 100.

 

Seth Rosin (from University of Minnesota) was in high A-Ball pitching in relief and spot starts. He was old for the league and never made any prospect list. His grade from Sickels was a C+ in 2012.

 

Not sure where the two top 50 prospects were in the trade.

 

Victorino netted Ethan Martin. He did not make the Dodgers top 10 entering last season (although he had in 2011). Given that he didn't make his own teams top 10 and there are 30 teams, I would think that would put him a long way from the border of the top 100. His grade from Sickels in 2012 was a C.

 

While they are fair comps (Pence's value given age and control probably better than Morneau), I don't see the top 100 return.

 

It might show that we can an expect a C+/B- prospect at the high end.

 

Yeah, my bad. I was looking at Pence's 2011 trade from the Astros to the Phillies. I agree with you that Morneau would not bring back as much since he isn't under several years of team control.

 

As for the Victorino trade, Ethan Martin is ranked the #75 prospect and is #2 prospect of the Phillies this season by Jonathan Mayo on mlb.com. So there are at least some who like him. That's why I said borderline.

 

To be clear I never thought we would get back a top 100 prospect, unless Morneau or Willingham start mashing and raise their profiles significantly, but I think a 100-200 type prospect is within reason. Probably a throw in as well. As I said earlier I would be intrigued by a player in A ball with some upside.

[Oxtung]

The difference is that Morneau is loved by fans, players and the FO. This team has made some good baseball moves that have been unpopular with the general public and they have made some questionable decisions that have been unpopular with the general public. There's no reason to trade one of the most popular Twins for scrubs. Especially if Willingham is traded around the same time for a good prospect or two.

 

So it is worth keeping a player who potentially will be below average (not a stretch since he was a below average 1st baseman in 2012) because the fans like him? I disagree with that. I think what fans want most is a winning team. If replacing Morneau is part of that improvement I think it needs to happen.

[jorgenswest]

Yeah, my bad. I was looking at Pence's 2011 trade from the Astros to the Phillies. I agree with you that Morneau would not bring back as much since he isn't under several years of team control.

 

As for the Victorino trade, Ethan Martin is ranked the #75 prospect and is #2 prospect of the Phillies this season by Jonathan Mayo on mlb.com. So there are at least some who like him. That's why I said borderline.

 

To be clear I never thought we would get back a top 100 prospect, unless Morneau or Willingham start mashing and raise their profiles significantly, but I think a 100-200 type prospect is within reason. Probably a throw in as well. As I said earlier I would be intrigued by a player in A ball with some upside.

 

It is possible to get a good prospect in a trade. It will have to be someone young who the Twins scouts can see a better future than generally seen by others. We will have to have confidence in the Twins scouting department to find that player generally seen as a B-/C+ prospect.

[kab21]

So it is worth keeping a player who potentially will be below average (not a stretch since he was a below average 1st baseman in 2012) because the fans like him? I disagree with that. I think what fans want most is a winning team. If replacing Morneau is part of that improvement I think it needs to happen.

 

a) He's currently significantly better than any other reasonable option the Twins have at 1B other than moving Mauer there. So he does make the Twins better even if he's not great.

 

Fans do not perceive Morneau as a poor player. Most probably still perceive him as an above average player even if he isn't.

 

Trading Morneau for a marginal prospect and replacing him with someone cheaper that completely flops (potentially Parmelee) is another 'the Twins are cheap and liars with a publicly funded stadium' round of bad press that get lobbed the Twins direction. Making unpopular moves is part of running a team but there is a line that some teams shouldn't (not the Marlins) cross.

 

In liriano's case he really sucked while he was here and he sucked after he was traded. Optimistically the Twins could obtain a good prospect or two for Willy and his replacement (Arcia) is really good.

[Kwak]

He's on pace to hit around .300 with 20 HR's and 85 + RBI's. That's hardly garbage. But unless Parmalee starts raking before 7/31, I'd rather keep Mourneau around. There's no reason to have a $70 million payroll in 2014 and we won't get a huge return for him.

He has 2 HRs and an OPS of .750--he is on pace for (drum roll) 8 HRs and an OPS of .750. Florimon has 2 HRs, Hicks has 3! Morneau is untradeable! Even considering a contract extension is ridiculous.

[jorgenswest]

Is there a third option to give Morneau a one year qualifying offer to be eligible for compensation?

 

If so, they do not need to trade him unless they get an offer more valuable than a pick between rounds 1 and 2.

[Kwak]

Is there a third option to give Morneau a one year qualifying offer to be eligible for compensation?

 

If so, they do not need to trade him unless they get an offer more valuable than a pick between rounds 1 and 2.

A qualifying offer is well over $10MM/year! No one will sign him, and the Twins will be stuck with him at a ridiculous salary.

[Oxtung]

A qualifying offer is well over $10MM/year! No one will sign him, and the Twins will be stuck with him at a ridiculous salary.

 

Not only that but now you have the same problem but it's 2014, not 2013, and Morneau is now a year older. No, a decision needs to be made this season on Morneau's future. Putting if off 1 year does nothing. Either a multi year end of career contract needs to be extended to Morneau for a 7 figure per year salary or he needs to get traded for whatever he can bring back. I obviously fall in the second camp.

[TheLeviathan]

So it is worth keeping a player who potentially will be below average (not a stretch since he was a below average 1st baseman in 2012) because the fans like him? I disagree with that. I think what fans want most is a winning team. If replacing Morneau is part of that improvement I think it needs to happen.

 

There are worse things they could do with their money.

[Oxtung]

There are worse things they could do with their money.

 

There are also better things. I'm of the opinion that signing somebody because "he isn't the worst player out there," is a bad reason and a bad decision. Players should be signed because you think they are an improvement, can grow into an improvement or allow you to improve in other areas. Morneau, and not to drag this off topic but this is my problem with Pelfrey and Correia too, don't fall into any of those catagories.

[Brodin4Calder]

He has 2 HRs and an OPS of .750--he is on pace for (drum roll) 8 HRs and an OPS of .750. Florimon has 2 HRs, Hicks has 3! Morneau is untradeable! Even considering a contract extension is ridiculous.

 

Yea you mention what hes doing bad but why didnt you mention his .300AVG and hes on pace for 120RBIs? Did that slip you mind, how on eartch could you say hes untradable batting .300 and on pace for 120RBI? Just because his power numbers are down doesnt mean he isnt producing more than almost the whole league. If he finished with a .300AVG and 120RBIs would you seriously say hes untradable?

[Brodin4Calder]

Yes OPS gives a good outlook on how a hitter is doing but what it doesnt account for is hitting with RISP, one of the most important stats there is. Jose Bautista has an OPS of .898 with 9HR, 23R, 22RBIs and a RISP .286 while Morneau has an OPS of .761 with 2HR, 18R 29RBI and an RISP of .298. Morneau has more total runs generated because he has a better RISP avg, a stat that isnt accounted for in OPS. Even though Bautistas OPS is better than Morneaus it doesnt mean hes having a better season, when it comes to driving in runs Morneau is doing that better than most in the leauge.

 

OPS is a flawed statistic. It doesnt account for clutch hitting and it weighs extra base hits way too heavy, It says that a double is 2x more valuable than a single and a triple is 3x more valuable than a single even though most managers would not agree with that. Im not saying its a horrible stat but you cant base a players whole season on OPS. Morneau may not be getting XBH but when he has runs that are in scorin position hes driving them in better than most people in the league, doesnt that count for something?

[Oxtung]

Yea you mention what hes doing bad but why didnt you mention his .300AVG and hes on pace for 120RBIs? Did that slip you mind, how on eartch could you say hes untradable batting .300 and on pace for 120RBI? Just because his power numbers are down doesnt mean he isnt producing more than almost the whole league. If he finished with a .300AVG and 120RBIs would you seriously say hes untradable?

 

As others have mentioned to you several times, RBI's are a team statistic not an individual accomplishment. The fact that Morneau is OPSing .760 is much more significant than his RBI totals. Here is a stat from ESPN.com:

 

During his current 11-game hitting streak, Justin Morneau is batting .422 and has a league-best 14 RBI, but he also has the second-most at-bats with runners in scoring position (17) during that span.

 

As that stat points out, you put up big RBI totals not because you're a great hitter but because the guys ahead of you are.

[LaBombo]

Yea you mention what hes doing bad but why didnt you mention his .300AVG and hes on pace for 120RBIs? Did that slip you mind, how on eartch could you say hes untradable batting .300 and on pace for 120RBI? Just because his power numbers are down doesnt mean he isnt producing more than almost the whole league. If he finished with a .300AVG and 120RBIs would you seriously say hes untradable?

 

How often does a player drive in over 100 runs while hitting fewer than 20 home runs? Or over 80 runs, for that matter?

 

Morneau is the poster child for RISP not being a repeatable skill. Yes, he's 'clutch', and batting .298 with risp so far in 2013. But last year he batted .196 with risp because... why? He forgot how to 'clutch hit'? Is that how you account for a 100 point difference that is 3 times the difference in batting average year over year?

 

OPS isn't perfect, but pretty close. It correlates more closely to runs scored than any other commonly used stat, and it generally gives about a 95% accurate picture of run-scoring performance.

[Kwak]

Morneau's salary ($14MM) could be more productively used in other positions.

[jorgenswest]

A qualifying offer is well over $10MM/year! No one will sign him, and the Twins will be stuck with him at a ridiculous salary.

 

I tend to agree, though a one year contract is not significant risk.

 

I would contend that anyone who thinks he is worth a reasonably good prospect in trade must also contend he is worth a qualifying offer.

 

It amused me last year that some of the same voices ridiculing the Liriano trade also did not think Liriano was worth a qualifying offer. Clearly, he wasn't worth a qualifying offer and the return for him in trade had corresponding value.

 

Back to Morneau, I do believe the Twins need to imply that they plan to make a qualifying offer (even if untrue). It will make their need to trade him appear less desperate.

[Guest USAFChief]

As that stat points out, you put up big RBI totals not because you're a great hitter but because the guys ahead of you are.

Not to turn this into an RBI discussion, but...

 

Like most stats, RBI has it's flaws. It's become fashionable to pooh-pooh it as something a player isn't responsible for, and not important anyway. Neither of those things are true. Would you contend that Drew Butera would have as many RBI as Morneau if Butera had taken Morneau's position in the lineup over the years?

 

The idea that the other players on a team are primarily responsible for a given players' RBI doesn't compute, either.

[Oxtung]

Not to turn this into an RBI discussion, but...

 

Like most stats, RBI has it's flaws. It's become fashionable to pooh-pooh it as something a player isn't responsible for, and not important anyway. Neither of those things are true. Would you contend that Drew Butera would have as many RBI as Morneau if Butera had taken Morneau's position in the lineup over the years?

 

The idea that the other players on a team are primarily responsible for a given players' RBI doesn't compute, either.

 

The real problem with RBI's is that it doesn't directly measure anything useful. You want to know if someone is a good hitter? OPS is a much better stat that more closely correlates to runs. Want to know how "clutch" a batter is? Well RISP stats measure that directly. Power? Well there is ISO and Slugging. There is almost nothing that RBI totals measure that can't be measured better by different stat.

[old nurse]

The real problem with RBI's is that it doesn't directly measure anything useful..

 

If the point of the game on offense is to score runs then a rbi has value. It measures the batter's contribution to the goal.

Others will tell you that you are incorrect on the correlation to runs scored. Does OPS Correlate Better To Runs Scored Than RBI? | Mets Merized Online

[Mike Sixel]

If the point of the game on offense is to score runs then a rbi has value. It measures the batter's contribution to the goal.

Others will tell you that you are incorrect on the correlation to runs scored. Does OPS Correlate Better To Runs Scored Than RBI? | Mets Merized Online

worst math ever. Of course RBI are correlated with runs scored.....but that is like saying runs scored is correlated with runs scored. It tells you exactly zero about how an individual hits though.

[old nurse]

worst math ever. Of course RBI are correlated with runs scored.....but that is like saying runs scored is correlated with runs scored. It tells you exactly zero about how an individual hits though.

I did not claim to say anything about hitting or judging hitting, or even that it defines power, talent or anything other than an RBI is a measure of what that person contributed towards the goal of the game.

[snepp]

Can I get my 2 minutes and 10,000 dead braincells back? That was one of the most painful articles I've read in a long time.

 

 

 

Edit: wouldn't a "return" insult require there to have been another insult first? I see no such thing.

[jokin]

Can I get my 2 minutes and 10,000 dead braincells back? That was one of the most painful articles I've read in a long time.

 

 

 

Edit: wouldn't a "return" insult require there to have been another insult first? I see no such thing.

 

After insulting the Metsmerized author directly (and deservedly!) and the poster by proxy, did the mod just edit his own direct "return-insult" of an edited "non-return insult"? The world will never know (but remain glad he's there!).

[snepp]

Does that mean I may have just insulted myself?

 

 

Man I'm an *******.

[PseudoSABR]

Man I'm an *******.

For posterity.