Twins Trade Bait

[cmathewson]

I see less and less reasons to trade Morneau... he's one of the few guys the fans even know. He's pretty key for the lineup. Not sure if anyone wants to pay him $15M. The Hammer needs to get out of his slump and have a great summer if we want to get any value. However, I can see Perkins or Burton going. They are both pitching really well and maybe we could snub a team to give up a decent prospect-(capps for ramos anyone?)

 

Do we really need a decent prospect? We've got 10 or 12 very good to excellent prospects, and another 10 good prospects. What we need is good veteran relievers.

[kab21]

Yes, they need more prospects. They definitely need more SP'ing and MI prospects. The key to putting a long run together is a loaded farm system and relievers are the most unpredictable and overvalued commodity in baseball. there is no reason to hold a fire sale though.

[Oxtung]

Do we really need a decent prospect? We've got 10 or 12 very good to excellent prospects, and another 10 good prospects. What we need is good veteran relievers.

 

Yes. Given TR aversion to FA, the success rate of prospects and the fact that we still have holes in our farm system we need all the good prospects we can get. The more good minor leaguers you have the more good major leaguers you'll end up with. If, god forbid, we end up with "too many" we can always look to trade them later for either more prospects or established players to supplement our "core".

[snepp]

Yes, if you're going to punt free agency you need to compensate elsewhere.

[stringer bell]

The major league team needs pitching, then middle infielders. Their best prospects are outfielders and corner infielders. I have been of the opinion that two of Morneau, Doumit, and Willingham will be gone by Opening Day 2014. I think that Doumit will have a market because of injuries to catchers on contenders. Performance will probably determine the value of both Willingham and Morneau.

 

I wonder if there will be a market for Pelfrey or Correia. Neither probably figure in the Twins long-term future.

[Kwak]

All of this begs the questions: Why would other teams want said Twins players and what would they realistically offer in return?

[drjim]

No, I meant starting position players: Willingham and Morneau to be specific.

 

Carroll I could see, maybe Doumit but I'd be surprised at that, too. If either of Pelfrey or Corriea have any sort of value at the dealine, I guess I could see that.

 

I don't think they're going to dismantle what little they have to draw fans into TF, particularly when they're not stretched for payroll. I don't see it as a likely Ryan tactic. If they're 20 games out, attendance has already tanked and media coverage/fan sentiment is already really negative, maybe that changes. Maybe.

 

I like your points in this thread.

 

Willingham wouldn't surprise me but a lot would depend on the return and whether Arcia proves that he can stay. If they can get a legit starting pitching prospect it would be hard for Ryan to say no.

 

Carroll will be traded at some point, but it will mostly be just to dump salary (as was mentioned before). Doumit will not, mostly because he has value to the Twins, there wouldn't be any return for him, and there is no need to clear his salary or roster spot yet.

 

More likely Morneau is extended than traded.

 

Perkins is the interesting one. Doubtful he is moved but it is possible that a team blows Ryan away with legit starting pitching. That would be hard to refuse.

 

Burton perhaps, but I just don't see another team giving much of anything for him. Same with the others that have been mentioned.

[drjim]

All of this begs the questions: Why would other teams want said Twins players and what would they realistically offer in return?

 

That is of course the big question and we will probably not know for sure. If Willingham returns somewhat to the form of last season he and Perkins are probably the only two assets with decent value. Possibly Morneau.

[gunnarthor]

All of this begs the questions: Why would other teams want said Twins players and what would they realistically offer in return?

 

We'll know more as the season progresses but a team like the Reds could use a corner OF bat. Rangers too. Pittsburgh is getting some nice production out of historically not so great guys. Hopefully, Ryan can find/get some sort of bidding war for Willingham/Morneau (if/when he trades them).

 

I'm not sure what the return would be but I think the minimum would have to be something like the Cubs got for Dempster last year - 1 top 100 prospect and another strong A ball arm.

[DaveW]

I wouldn't trade Doumit as he has much more value on the twins for 2014 than he would bring back in a trade. Last thing we want is more butera....the platoon with Mauer is working out just fine IMO

 

I think you trade Willingham if the price is right, if things fall into place and Meyer/Gibson are ready next year I think the twins actually have a good shot to compete, so I wouldn't dump Willigham for some C level prospect just for the sake of doing so. Also the twins have a ton of money free next year already to make a splash with a real free agent pitcher signing.

[DaveW]

I would also offer Justin a 2 year/10-12 mil contract to stick around as a stop gap for a couple years, if he declines the extension then trade him for what you can since it would be foolish to give him a qualifying offer.

 

Correia/Caroll you take anything for. If someone blows you away then trade Perkins as well, but to be honest I would be very bummed as he is one of my fav twins.

[drjim]

We'll know more as the season progresses but a team like the Reds could use a corner OF bat. Rangers too. Pittsburgh is getting some nice production out of historically not so great guys. Hopefully, Ryan can find/get some sort of bidding war for Willingham/Morneau (if/when he trades them).

 

I'm not sure what the return would be but I think the minimum would have to be something like the Cubs got for Dempster last year - 1 top 100 prospect and another strong A ball arm.

 

Reds and Giants always struck me as the logical Willingham destinations. They don't have great systems but do have some pitching.

[stringer bell]

I wouldn't trade Doumit as he has much more value on the twins for 2014 than he would bring back in a trade. Last thing we want is more butera....the platoon with Mauer is working out just fine IMO

I would like to think Pinto/Herrmann combined with Mauer would be a better "platoon" offering some RH sock and better defense than Doumit provides. If Morneau is gone, as I still believe, than Mauer will play a lot more first base and Pinto would get a chance to see if he can hit something like his outstanding numbers in NB. Herrmann would provide 3rd catcher/backup outfielder bench strength with a far better bat than Drewsie will ever have.

[Siehbiscuit]

Doumit... I can see Doumit getting moved if the Twins get a solid return. There are enough decent bats to DH (Parmalee, Arcia, Morneau, Mauer) to cover the loss of Doumit. Butera (barf) or Hermann can play backup catcher. Twins could survive without Doumit.

 

Carroll...The Twins could also "survive" without Carroll, but unlike Doumit's situation, who do the Twins have to replace him? I would like to keep Carroll as a needed veteran on this team that would provide more leadership for a very young group of infielders that need a leader. Carroll would also fetch little in a trade.

 

Parmalee...DO NOT TRADE THIS MAN! His value is far too low and he is far too inexpensive to not wait on. He would fetch little in a trade and have I mentioned he is cheap? Expensive and unproductive is a bad combination. Inexpensive and unproductive is tolerable.

 

Morneau...If he keeps putting up RBI's at the current pace and is playing everyday, some GM's will overpay for his run production. He's expensive, a free agent to be and his bat could likely be replaced by a younger, less expensive player.

 

Willingham...First of all, Willingham needs to start hitting the deep ball. GM's don't care too much about the batting average if homeruns and a solid OBP are there. He is not hitting HR's at the moment so that needs to change to get good value. Sell at the right price and let a guy like Colabello or Parmalee play everyday. His contract is pretty team-friendly and he has stayed healthy the last 1.5 years.

[DaveW]

I still think they resign Justin to keep Mauer and the fans happy. Hell if we are going to give Correia 2 years/10 mil we might as well do it for morneau as well.

[howeda7]

I'm on board with keeping Morneau on a reasonable 2-year extension/offering him arbitration. The payroll is tracking towards being about $65 million next year if they trade him. Parmalee's not lighting the world on fire and if he does they'll find AB's for him somewhere.

 

Pelfrey and Carroll should be dealt if you can get anything of value. Possibly Roeneke as well. Willingham if the offer is right. Perkins should be kept unless someone goes crazy.

[Westgaard66]

So three pages and no one comments on the inclusion of Plouffe?

 

What would he bring...a low B, high C level prospect?

[snepp]

Plouffe is making nothing and has no replacement. I wouldn't trade him.

[spideyo]

So three pages and no one comments on the inclusion of Plouffe?

 

What would he bring...a low B, high C level prospect?

 

Right now? Nothing. He has yet to demonstrate that his hot bat last year was anything more than a fluke. He's still not a stellar 3b, and his hitting hasn't been anything special this year.

[30whales]

How about we just tell Morneau that we are trading him but would love to have him back after the season! We get a couple of decent prospects and don't lose Morneau!

[Kwak]

How many HRs does Morneau have?--not enough for some team to pay the equivalent of an 8-figure contract, and include anybody resembling a ML player. Morneau will be viewed as a salary dump for any trade discussion--and that's what should be done! Where are all of the FO defenders who cry "blocking prospects"? Morneau's big days are behind him, it's time to promote from within and see if these minor league sluggers can repeat said success at the ML level in 2014.

[Oxtung]

How many HRs does Morneau have?--not enough for some team to pay the equivalent of an 8-figure contract, and include anybody resembling a ML player. Morneau will be viewed as a salary dump for any trade discussion--and that's what should be done! Where are all of the FO defenders who cry "blocking prospects"? Morneau's big days are behind him, it's time to promote from within and see if these minor league sluggers can repeat said success at the ML level in 2014.

 

Or the Twins pick up a significant portion of his contract in exchange for better prospects. I highly doubt that would ever happen but that would be how you maximize the probability of long term success.

[kab21]

The current version of Morneau is unlikely to bring back a top 100 prospect even if the Twins picked up the entire contract in July. If the Twins can get a top 100 prospect then I'm in favor of trading him. If the Twins are picking up Pedro Hernandez and Eduardo Escobar clones (regardless of his hot start) then just keep him.

[Oxtung]

The current version of Morneau is unlikely to bring back a top 100 prospect even if the Twins picked up the entire contract in July. If the Twins can get a top 100 prospect then I'm in favor of trading him. If the Twins are picking up Pedro Hernandez and Eduardo Escobar clones (regardless of his hot start) then just keep him.

 

Morneau is such an enigma right now with many variables currently. I agree that it makes him hard to know what to do with him. I will say that if the Twins are not contending when the trade deadline rolls around they should be looking to move him for whatever they can get, even if that means Escobar or Hernandez.

[LaBombo]

So three pages and no one comments on the inclusion of Plouffe?

 

What would he bring...a low B, high C level prospect?

Yes, if another franchise hires Bill Smith away from the Twins and makes him a GM again.

[howeda7]

How many HRs does Morneau have?--not enough for some team to pay the equivalent of an 8-figure contract, and include anybody resembling a ML player. Morneau will be viewed as a salary dump for any trade discussion--and that's what should be done! Where are all of the FO defenders who cry "blocking prospects"? Morneau's big days are behind him, it's time to promote from within and see if these minor league sluggers can repeat said success at the ML level in 2014.

 

He's on pace to hit around .300 with 20 HR's and 85 + RBI's. That's hardly garbage. But unless Parmalee starts raking before 7/31, I'd rather keep Mourneau around. There's no reason to have a $70 million payroll in 2014 and we won't get a huge return for him.

[Oxtung]

He's on pace to hit around .300 with 20 HR's and 85 + RBI's. That's hardly garbage. But unless Parmalee starts raking before 7/31, I'd rather keep Mourneau around. There's no reason to have a $70 million payroll in 2014 and we won't get a huge return for him.

 

If Justin Morneau is putting up anywhere near those numbers at the deadline he'll bring back a nice prospect in the 100-200 range. Those kinds of numbers equate to an OPS somewhere between .825-.850.

 

For comparison RF Hunter Pence (29 when traded last year) had an OPS of .743 at the trade deadline and a history of .800+ OPS's. He brought back two top 50 prospects plus a throw in. Pence was under control for 2013 as well and a couple of years younger than Morneau.

 

Shane Victorino OPS'ing .724 before the deadline last year brought back a borderline top 100 prospect, a decent relief pitcher and a throw in.

 

If Morneau just flirts with .800 I think he'll be worth a 100-200 type prospect. I would love it if the Twins got a young guy in A ball with some upside a la Polanco or Kepler in the Twins system.

[B Richard]

Do we really need a decent prospect? We've got 10 or 12 very good to excellent prospects, and another 10 good prospects. What we need is good veteran relievers.

 

Where does this prospect optimism come from? They are prospects. You cannot take their future production for granted, ever. Especially pitching prospects. Just as BP warns... prospects will break your heart. Even among highly-touted prospects, quite a few will never develop into productive major leaguers.

 

Relievers can be one of the most over-valued assets in baseball. Many teams will overpay in the heat of a race for what they perceive as a necessity. I like Perkins and his deal, but if a team blows you away with a great offer that includes SP/MI prospects, you take it without question. IMO, having veteran relievers is a luxury that should be less important to a team in the rebuilding phase.

[kab21]

Morneau is such an enigma right now with many variables currently. I agree that it makes him hard to know what to do with him. I will say that if the Twins are not contending when the trade deadline rolls around they should be looking to move him for whatever they can get, even if that means Escobar or Hernandez.

 

The difference is that Morneau is loved by fans, players and the FO. This team has made some good baseball moves that have been unpopular with the general public and they have made some questionable decisions that have been unpopular with the general public. There's no reason to trade one of the most popular Twins for scrubs. Especially if Willingham is traded around the same time for a good prospect or two.

[Top Gun]

You can't trade your best players and think you are coming out ahead.