King Kenta's Comeback

[Cody Pirkl]

Kenta Maeda entered 2023 as a complete wild card following nearly two years of missed time due to elbow surgery. A rocky spring raised further questions, but his regular season debut offers reasons for excitement.

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

 

Kenta Maeda’s spring was far from ideal. After missing a year-and-a-half due to Tommy John surgery, the soon-to-be 35-year-old was missing his velocity and command for much of camp. Some were calling for Bailey Ober to get the fifth rotation spot and to figure out how to utilize Maeda elsewhere.

Well at least through his first start, the Twins' faith in Maeda has been justified. He’s already shown more than he did at any point in the spring, and one could argue that this start was better than what we had seen from him in 2021 when Maeda last pitched. If his debut performance can be maintained, the Twins are in an enviable spot.

With the caveat that it was against the Marlins lineup, Maeda was simply dominant in his 2023 debut. In five-plus innings, Maeda allowed only three hits and struck out nine. While his one mistake resulted in a game-deciding solo homer, he showcased the pinpoint command that made him a Cy Young contender in 2020. His velocity was surprisingly up across the board even from pre-Tommy John levels. 

For the Twins, this could be a game-changer. It was only one start, but it was a possibility that this version of Maeda simply didn’t exist anymore. Age and injury come for the best pitchers in baseball. Maeda will soon be 35 years old and is coming off an arm injury that routinely leaves pitchers with diminished command. Even if he can’t consistently dominate the way he did on Tuesday, the proof that the ability is still in there has to be encouraging.

Maeda was undoubtedly the Twins' #5 starter headed into the season, and there’s an argument to be made that once through the rotation he had one of the more impressive performances. If they were to get even a league-average starting pitcher out of that rotation spot, the Twins and their fans should be thrilled. Maeda showing that he’s capable of that and a lot more in his first start raised the floor and ceiling of the pitching staff.

There is, of course, a lot more to wait and see regarding Maeda before saying he’s fully returned to his pre-injury levels. Consistency is often the key following Tommy John surgery, and it’s undeniable that we will see some up and down performances. The hope is the extra recovery time he had because the Twins didn't rush him back in 2022 helps him a bit.

He also left his start with the trainer after allowing a leadoff hit in the sixth inning. Baldelli and Maeda echoed his ability to make his next start after the game, but as with all Twins-related injuries, it’ll be something to watch closely. Even if Maeda escapes this injury scare with a clean bill of health, he had his fair share of injury concerns even several years ago, and the risk can only increase with age. Health will be a big question for Maeda now that we know the performance can still be elite.

All things considered, there wasn’t much else someone could have really wanted to see from Kenta Maeda in his first start in nearly two years. It’s too early to say that he’s returned to his top-of-the-rotation peak, but for a team with several lingering questions headed into an important season, Kenta Maeda’s answer is about as good as possible. Some were saying this Twins rotation is the deepest we’ve seen in years. If Tuesday’s version of Kenta Maeda is here to stay, it’s a difficult point to argue.

 

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[mikelink45]

Good start - too early to judge.

[miracleb]

Sure hope it was just fatigue!

[Peter]

So far so good! If this keeps up comeback player of the year 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Good article Cody. Thanks.

[Heistyman]

Cody, May I ask what site you got the pitch type data from?  It looks very interesting.

[chpettit19]

19 hours ago, Heistyman said:

Cody, May I ask what site you got the pitch type data from?  It looks very interesting.

That is baseballsavant.mlb.com. If you're into data that's a great resource.