Spend on Bats, Bank on Arms: This Front Office's Strategy Is Clear

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, vulturepaj said:

Gallo is exceptional in RF, on par with Kepler and holds TWO Gold Gloves.

Rtot/yr -- Total Zone Total Fielding Runs Above Avg per 1,200 Inn
The number of runs above or below average the fielder was worth per 1,200 Innings (approx 135 games).
This number combines the Rtz, Rdp, Rof, Rcatch numbers into a total defensive contribution.
See the glossary section for a more complete explanation.
Provided by BaseballProjection.com

Below is the career Rtot/Yr at each position for Twins Position Players

Player	Pos	G	Rtot/yr
Alex Kiriloff	RF	35	5
Alex Kiriloff	LF	34	(25)
Alex Kiriloff	1B	47	7
Arraez, Luis	2B	169	0
Arraez, Luis	3B	79	(7)
Arraez, Luis	1B	65	13
Arraez, Luis	LF	48	(8)
Buxton, Byron	CF	542	15
Carlos Correa	SS	881	7
Celestino, Gilberto	CF	112	(2)
Celestino, Gilberto	LF	29	32
Celestino, Gilberto	RF	10	35
Christian Vazquez	C	681	11
Farmer, Kyle	SS	235	2
Farmer, Kyle	3B	86	(2)
Farmer, Kyle	2B	63	14
Gallo, Joey	LF	284	0
Gallo, Joey	RF	209	31
Gallo, Joey	1B	96	2
Gallo, Joey	CF	56	1
Gordon, Nick	LF	73	(3)
Gordon, Nick	CF	72	(4)
Gordon, Nick	2B	53	(2)
Gordon, Nick	SS	31	(23)
Jorge Polanco	SS	501	(9)
Jorge Polanco	2B	222	0
Kepler, Max	RF	700	16
Kepler, Max	CF	159	(6)
Larnach, Trevor	LF	93	(9)
Miranda, Jose	1B	77	(1)
Miranda, Jose	3B	34	(15)
Ryan Jeffers	C	168	(4)

 

 last year according to BR - as a Yankee he 0.1 Offensive WAR and -0.4 defensive WAR.  As a Dodger he had -0.3 Offensive WAR and 0.2 defensive WAR.  

His Defensive WAR for 8 years was 1.6 - an average of 0.2.  

[Brandon]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Kenta Maeda had no arm and injury concerns while he was with the Dodgers for 4 seasons. He made 32 starts his first year. 25 his second year before going to the pen for the end of the season and playoffs. 20 in his 3rd year before going to the pen again. 26 in his 4th year before the pen move. He may have had concerns before they signed him, but while he was with the Dodgers he had no issues at all. Trying to sell Maeda as some sort of higher than usual risk when the Twins acquired him is ignoring the realities of what he did in LA. He had 3 IL stints with the Dodgers. All of which he spent the minimum amount of time on the IL and were for leg injuries. That is by no means a guy with "arm and injury concerns with the Dodgers." That's just a regular MLB pitcher.

The Dodgers had concerns from their physicals about his UCL in his elbow.  It was such a concern that Maeda signed a team friendly deal and the Dodgers handled Maeda carefully to get the most out of him. 

[Brandon]

I wanted to point out that the Twins did offer Darvish over 100+ million same as Wheeler.  so they Twins were willing to spend in the rotation.  

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, Brandon said:

The Dodgers had concerns from their physicals about his UCL in his elbow.  It was such a concern that Maeda signed a team friendly deal and the Dodgers handled Maeda carefully to get the most out of him. 

4 years with no arm problems. That's all there is to know. 4 years. If 4 years isn't enough to not be concerned about something you'd never trade for a single major league pitcher. He had no IL stints for his arm in 4 seasons in LA. Trying to pretend he was a higher risk than the average pitcher is simply ignoring the reality of major league pitchers health.

He started 32 games his first season there. That's not "handling him carefully to get the most out of him."

[Shaitan]

I don't see this as a pattern, I see it as supply and demand. There are far more position players in free agency than starting pitchers, especially considering the patterns this FO has shown:

1) An aversion to long-term contracts. Ace pitchers sign long, high risk deals. Even Correa ended up on 6 years instead of longer. Donaldson was 4.

2) Opportunistic.

I think the later is their pattern. If they see a deal, they go for it. The Correa drama allowed them to get a 6 year deal instead of 10. Lynn was a late signing. Correa last year was a prove-it scenario.  The acquisition and flip of Kafler-Fineka... The pattern I see is that they read the market and go for the efficient moves they think will make the team best instead of coming in with a predetermined plan.

[NotAboutWinning]

3 hours ago, Shaitan said:

The pattern I see is that they read the market and go for the efficient moves they think will make the team best instead of coming in with a predetermined plan.

That is an excellent way to maximize return with limited resources... as long as your good decisions outnumber the poor ones.

[Shaitan]

2 hours ago, NotAboutWinning said:

That is an excellent way to maximize return with limited resources... as long as your good decisions outnumber the poor ones.

So far they seem better with offseason than in-season moves.

[NotAboutWinning]

10 minutes ago, Shaitan said:

So far they seem better with offseason than in-season moves.

Agree. Interesting.

[Brandon]

21 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

4 years with no arm problems. That's all there is to know. 4 years. If 4 years isn't enough to not be concerned about something you'd never trade for a single major league pitcher. He had no IL stints for his arm in 4 seasons in LA. Trying to pretend he was a higher risk than the average pitcher is simply ignoring the reality of major league pitchers health.

He started 32 games his first season there. That's not "handling him carefully to get the most out of him."

His UCL had the profile of on that had a higher risk of needing surgery down the line.  In fact it was a high likelihood hence his contract.  That doesn’t mean it will happen the first year after signing but it was likely during the contract and guess what…..

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Brandon said:

His UCL had the profile of on that had a higher risk of needing surgery down the line.  In fact it was a high likelihood hence his contract.  That doesn’t mean it will happen the first year after signing but it was likely during the contract and guess what…..

How many pitchers make it through their entire professional career without getting TJ these days? I understand that there was concern when he signed. But the Dodgers clearly weren't babying him, or all that worried about things, if they let him make 32 starts his first year. He went 5 and a half years with no problems. Then his elbow, like most pitchers in this day and age, gave out. If a pitcher has no arm issues while throwing a full workload for 4 seasons, then the Twins acquire him and he has no problems with them for a year and a half, then has TJ it's entirely disingenuous, and revisionist history, to suggest he was a ticking time bomb. A major league pitcher with no arm problems for 4 years is not a high risk player. 

Last year's top 10 fWAR pitchers:
Aaron Nola- had TJ
Carlos Rodon- had TJ
Justin Verlander- had TJ
Sandy Alcantara- no TJ
Kevin Gausman- no TJ
Shohei Ohtani- had TJ
Max Fried- had TJ
Shane Bieber- no TJ
Corbin Burnes- no TJ
Framber Valdez- no TJ

50% of the top 10 has had TJ in their careers. That's not including any other arm injuries. Just TJ. 50% of them. Every professional pitcher has a high risk of needing surgery down the line. A pitcher with no arm problems for 4 years is absolutely not any higher risk than any other pitcher.