Pre-emptive Kevin Correia Is Great and You're All Dumb Thread

[Riverbrian]

Doesn't anyone think that a guy with Correia's lengthy track record can suddenly emerge as a Cy Young candidate?

 

Me neither.

 

Some of it is luck and some of it is hitters who haven't seen much of him.

 

A. I don't think he needs to be a Cy Young candidate... That's a tough expectation.

B. If the season ended today... I don't think he is a Cy Young Candidate.

C. Can he suddenly emerge as simply a decent starter? Yes he can... But I wouldn't call it sudden. He's been uptrending.

[NoCal]

btw - Since his departure from the Twins, Marquis has actually performed pretty well, as a back end of the rotation starter in a pitcher-friendly park, on a non-contending team. (He beat the Giants yesterday...). So maybe the Twins gave up on him a bit early. Pelfrey is really this year's Marquis; if we can tolerate some rough patches and hard hit balls, will he eventually reach his potential of being a decent, back end of the rotation starter in a pitcher friendly park? Parker Hageman's analysis of Pelfrey suggests that he is on a trajectory of improvement, which will require time and repetition to succeed. Should the Twins show that patience?

[cmathewson]

I'll let others discuss luck and BABIP and that stuff.

 

Thus Far... I've seen all of Correia starts and I think he's lucky because no one is hitting him very hard. Is that luck or good pitching? Personally I'll go with the latter.

 

Watch Pelfrey and they are hitting him hard. Even the outs are stroked with Pelfrey. You can see a clear difference.

 

It's my opinion... but I think Correia has earned his numbers so far.

 

I agree with this. Bert said something yesterday about keeping the ball off the fat part of the bat. To me, it comes down to having better command. He's keeping the ball on the corners, mixing up his pitches, moving it in and out, and keeping the ball down. When he has missed, he's missed out of the strike zone, rather than over the middle of the plate.

 

He could regress command-wise. But so far so good.

[Joe A. Preusser]

I was against it at the time and haven't changed my mind at all. Correia has unsustainable LOB% and HR% numbers. He's not a different guy. Signing him for two years made no sense then and still doesn't.

 

Pitching performances are not evenly distributed. Mediocre pitchers have 'good' stretches all the time. It's just part of the game. Getting all worked up over it shows a lack of understanding.

 

Those 'good' stretches by bad pitchers almost invariably come against a run of weak hitting competition. Correia has faced some good hitting teams this year and has maintained his consistently strong start throughout. LOB% is a terrible stat in my opinion. HR% can have as much to do with a ballpark as with the pitcher.

[snepp]

LOB% is a terrible stat in my opinion.

 

I'm curious to hear why.

 

 

For fun, Correia's LOB% rates the last 4+ years (since becoming a full-time starter).

 

2009 - 71.4%

2010 - 68.4%

2011 - 69.1%

2012 - 69.0%

2013 - 82.9%

 

 

HR% can have as much to do with a ballpark as with the pitcher.

 

Or, more likely, he's bound to start giving up home runs at the same rate as the league history, and particularly his own history, suggests. A ballpark isn't going to magically cut his home run rate in more than half.

[Guest USAFChief]

I'm curious to hear why.

 

 

For fun, Correia's LOB% rates the last 4+ years (since becoming a full-time starter).

 

2009 - 71.4%

2010 - 68.4%

2011 - 69.1%

2012 - 69.0%

2013 - 82.9%

 

 

 

 

Or, more likely, he's bound to start giving up home runs at the same rate as the league history, and particularly his own history, suggests. A ballpark isn't going to magically cut his home run rate in more than half.

I agree with the second part of the bolded statement. The first part, not so much. I don't believe league history has anything to do with individual performance, including regarding things such as HR/FB%. Plenty of pitchers have long stretches of above league average HR/FB% rates, and the opposite exist as well. The "opposite" ones tend not to last long in the big leagues, so they're harder to find. As with many things, I "averages" often do as much to obscure truth as much as illuminate it (see also "run expectancy charts," etc.)

[ashbury]

I'll let others discuss luck and BABIP and that stuff.

 

Thus Far... I've seen all of Correia starts and I think he's lucky because no one is hitting him very hard. Is that luck or good pitching? Personally I'll go with the latter.

 

Tim McCarver said it: "Bob Gibson is the luckiest pitcher I ever saw. He always pitches when the other team doesn't score any runs."

[ashbury]

Pelfrey is really this year's Marquis; if we can tolerate some rough patches and hard hit balls, will he eventually reach his potential of being a decent, back end of the rotation starter in a pitcher friendly park? Parker Hageman's analysis of Pelfrey suggests that he is on a trajectory of improvement, which will require time and repetition to succeed. Should the Twins show that patience?

 

If he consents to do it in Rochester, yes.

[Guest USAFChief]

I no speaky the good English. That last sentence should read: " As with many things, I think "averages" often do as much to obscure truth as illuminate it..."

[snepp]

I agree with the second part of the bolded statement. The first part, not so much. I don't believe league history has anything to do with individual performance, including regarding things such as HR/FB%. Plenty of pitchers have long stretches of above league average HR/FB% rates, and the opposite. The "opposite" ones tend not to last long in the big leagues, so they're harder to find.

 

Thus the use of the "particularly" part for his personal history. The league rate is relevant for context, as even the stingiest at allowing home runs are going to be within 2-3% of that mark.

 

When the expected league rate is 10-11%, and the best at allowing home runs are around 8%, Kevin Correia giving them up at 5% is certainly more than just "the ballpark."

[Guest USAFChief]

Thus the use of the "particularly" part for his personal history. The league rate is relevant for context, as even the stingiest at allowing home runs are going to be within 2-3% of that mark.

 

When the expected league rate is 10-11%, and the best at allowing home runs are around 8%, Kevin Correia giving them up at 5% is certainly more than just "the ballpark."

 

Fair enough.

[DaveW]

Who cares, has he been lucky? Yeah, but it's not at a super insane clip. Obviously his strand rate and HR rate will both suffer, but keep in mind he has a 2.23 ERA, even if those make it jump an additional 1.80 ERA he is still easily worth the money owed to him and slots in as a pretty damn nice #4 or so, especially if he continues to give you 7+ innings per start. I think his FIP is somewhere in the low to mid 3.00s currently. So he is doing "something" right.

[DaveW]

Also people need to stop with the Ramon Ortiz comps/call backs. Ortiz was coming off of two terrible years before the Twins signed him (5.47+ ERA) while Correria was coming off two mediocre/borderline #5 years (4.49 ERA combined)

 

With Correria there was always a decent chance he would preform good enough for a #5 and if not would be a mediorce/stop gap guy, Ortiz would have had to cut his ERA by a full run to even be considered a mediorce/stop gap option at best.

[snepp]

I think his FIP is somewhere in the low to mid 3.00s currently.

 

The xFIP in the low 4's is better to look at in his case, assuming we expect his home run rate to go back to normal at some point.

 

 

[/nitpick]

[snepp]

Fair enough.

 

Is this some Jedi mind-trick?

[DaveW]

The xFIP in the low 4's is better to look at in his case, assuming we expect his home run rate to go back to normal at some point.

 

 

[/nitpick]

 

If he hits his xFIP the rest of the season (which has its flaws for non strike out pitchers IMO) then he still ends up with under a 4.00 ERA on the season. Which is let's face it, what 95% of people thought was impossible when crying that this 2 year 10 mil deal was just about the worst thing since Super Aids.

 

One thing I will bring up, quality starts are far from a flawless stat, but when I look at guys at the back end of the rotation, I say that if they can get you 50-60% QS rate (the normal average year in year out is 52-55%) then I think you can be very happy with that. If your back end guy is giving you 6+ IP (thus not taxing the bullpen) and giving your team a good chance to win a game more often than not you are in a pretty good spot. The problem is though when your entire rotation is made up of back end type guys.

 

FYI Correia is 7 for 7 so far QS wise. Zero complaints thus far obviously.

[Guest USAFChief]

Is this some Jedi mind-trick? [ATTACH=CONFIG]3923[/ATTACH]

Yes. Quite impressive, actually.

[snepp]

FYI Correia is 7 for 7 so far QS wise. Zero complaints thus far obviously.

 

I didn't expect 14 total on the season, already halfway there.

[DaveW]

I didn't expect 14 total on the season, already halfway there.

 

I find it a bit annoying that baseball reference doesn't track these things. Especially for someone who is in several fantasy leagues that counts QS instead of "wins"

[gil4]

Tim McCarver said it: "Bob Gibson is the luckiest pitcher I ever saw. He always pitches when the other team doesn't score any runs."

 

Not a McCarver fan, but that quote is awesome.

[drjim]

It's been said but I hope we have about 30 more of these threads.

[snepp]

I find it a bit annoying that baseball reference doesn't track these things. Especially for someone who is in several fantasy leagues that counts QS instead of "wins"

 

B-ref doesn't have it? I count have sworn it was listed under one of those additional pitching views.

 

Maybe I'm thinking of ESPN.

[ThePuck]

Correia only has 5 starts, how could he have 7 QS?

[snepp]

5, 7, whatever.

[jorgenswest]

I didn't expect 14 total on the season, already halfway there.

 

There were 76 starters with more than 14 quality starts last year. Diamond And Correia were among 10 pitchers tied for 59th with 16.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

I usually lurk around this site, without posting too much, but I despised the Correia signing, because of the money paid, compared to other available free agent pitchers. I was even compelled to blog on the topic: Kevin Correia: Throwing Good Money After Bad? - Blogs - Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum

 

Correia makes sense as an innings-eater who can win ten games a season. He was 12-11 in 2009, 10-10 in 2010, and 12-11 in '11 and '12. Someone, earlier in this thread, mentioned that KC could be the RA Dickey of 2013. We can only hope. I would be thrilled to see him win 15, with Worley, Pelfrey, Diamond, and a long reliever reaching double digits in the win column.

 

Lest we forget, last year Scott Diamond won twelve games to lead the Twins staff--Jeff Gray and Sammy Deduno tied for second with six victories apiece. Yikes! I'm glad to be wrong about KC, so far.

 

BTW, this article is hilarious. I will be locking my doors tonight, because Correia might just go Jeff Gillooly on my kneecaps. Source: Kevin Correia is on his way to your house to beat you up - Twinkie Town

[ashbury]

Not a McCarver fan, but that quote is awesome.

 

I purposely gave the name of the speaker to incite. But notice the present-tense of his statement; he must have still been a player when he said it, indicating that he was not always decrepit and out of things to say.

[Guest USAFChief]

I purposely gave the name of the speaker to incite. But notice the present-tense of his statement; he must have still been a player when he said it, indicating that he was not always decrepit and out of things to say.

I'm probably in a small minority, but I like McCarver. He sometimes goes on and on, but he's really good at pointing things out about the game of baseball. Really good, IMO. I almost always learn something when he calls a game, and I happen to find most of his stories interesting and sometimes funny.

[jokin]

 

 

FYI Correia is 7 for 7 so far QS wise. Zero complaints thus far obviously.

 

Man From the Future FYI Bureau has apparently come to us as an Oracle to the vast, skeptical, doubting-Correia masses in Time-Present.

 

Bottom Line- We will simply not be making any complaints for at least 2 more starts. I'd appreciate if he can keep giving us the heads-ups on just how long this mirage will last.

[Beemo]

Also people need to stop with the Ramon Ortiz comps/call backs. Ortiz was coming off of two terrible years before the Twins signed him (5.47+ ERA) while Correria was coming off two mediocre/borderline #5 years (4.49 ERA combined)

 

With Correia there was always a decent chance he would preform good enough for a #5 and if not would be a mediorce/stop gap guy, Ortiz would have had to cut his ERA by a full run to even be considered a mediorce/stop gap option at best.

 

They're closer than you think. For 2006 and 2007, among qualified starters, Ramon Ortiz ranked 46th and 40th respectively in NL ERA. For 2011, Kevin Correia didn't quite have enough innings to qualify for the leaderboard, but if his 4.79 ERA would've ranked 46th. In 2012, he was 40th overall. That is actually a remarkable coincidence.

 

Ortiz's ERA+ in the two years prior to joining the Twins: 78.

Correia's ERA+ in the two years prior to joining the Twins: 83.