Byron Buxton and the Trout timeline

[ThePuck]

First off many of us did "rage" about Arcia being called up. However, it was completely different circumstances than Hicks. Arcia was killing it at AAA, and was only supposed to be up for a couple of days, before going back to AAA. Instead his injury replacement stint has lasted much longer than expected and suddenly he is OPSing .892 which is tops on the team. Do I still wish we could earn that extra year of control? Yes. I think Oz will slump at some point and get sent down. Each step of his journey (other than his original 2 day injury replacement) has been logical.

 

On the other hand nothing about the 'Aaron Hicks is our opening day starter' scenario seemed that logical. The only thing he had going for him was his Spring Training numbers.

 

Put the two together and I think that's why there is a difference between the "extra year" fervor.

 

You're missing the point, but that's fine.

[jokin]

LEN3 stated this evening, citing Tom Kelly, the old curmudgeon himself, not one to throw idle compliments about, who said that Byron Buxton is the fastest player he's ever seen. When asked to qualify, that characterization included faster than Revere, Guzman and Wilson. Confirms what Sickels recently had to say about Buxton's Plate-to-First speed being "unreal".

[Oxtung]

Of course Buxton at 19(?) still hasn't grown into his body yet and will be putting on weight before he reaches the majors. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain his current speed once he adds 30 pounds.

[jokin]

Of course Buxton at 19(?) still hasn't grown into his body yet and will be putting on weight before he reaches the majors. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain his current speed once he adds 30 pounds.

 

He'll be 19.5 on the same day as the Midwest All-Star game in June.

 

Good point, his frame will definitely fill out nicely. Given all the skills in his tool box, I'll be more than happy to trade some of that raw speed for even more raw power.

[Pius Jefferson]

LEN3 stated this evening, citing Tom Kelly, the old curmudgeon himself, not one to throw idle compliments about, who said that Byron Buxton is the fastest player he's ever seen. When asked to qualify, that characterization included faster than Revere, Guzman and Wilson. Confirms what Sickels recently had to say about Buxton's Plate-to-First speed being "unreal".

 

I heard the TK interview on 1500 when he said Buxton was the fastest player he's seen. To be honest I was hoping for more of a baseball compliment from TK.

[jokin]

Sickels is a believer, but is tempered enough to be willing to wait another month or so for a promotion to Fort Myers. Sounds like he is pleased with the Twins coaching staff in the adjustments they've made to his power swing, but that Buxton still has some work to do with pitch selection and bat speed. I am still very optimistic that he can get an extended call-up in 2014 and ready to go in 2015.

 

Excerpt Prospect Report: Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins - Minor League Ball :

 

 

"I knew he was fast, with at least 70-speed, but he still took me by surprise. In the first inning, he hit a routine ground ball to the third baseman. It was a normal play, the third baseman made a normal scoop and made a normal, on-time, on target throw to first base. Buxton beat the throw for a single; I literally said "holy ****" out loud. There are reports that he's been timed at 3.70 down the first base line and I completely believe it. He's almost as fast as Cincinnati Reds prospect Billy Hamilton."

 

 

Money quote:

 

"There is a lot of speculation about when the Twins should move Buxton up to High-A. Based on what I saw Wednesday, he still has a few things to learn in the Midwest League. The Twins usually don't rush their prospects, and I don't see the harm in leaving him in Cedar Rapids for another month or so.

 

Overall, although it wasn't one of his best games, I came away from the Quad Cities very impressed with Buxton. He's the real deal and clearly one of the best prospects in the game. I was a bit cautious with his ranking on my initial Top 150 Prospects for 2013 back in March, ranking him 37th. I'd jump him up at least 25 spots right now and probably more, into the Top 10. As other players graduate off the list, Buxton will likely be in the Top Five."

 

 

[jokin]

Buxton does not have the best features of both Upton brother. Justin has 70-80 power and he had it as a rookie. I agree though that Buxton is a more complete player than BJ.

 

Peter Gammons agrees with me, Buxton is the next big thing:

 

Per Twitter https://twitter.com/pgammo:

 

"Byron Buxton is half Justin Upton/BJ Upton, Half amazing." The Twins are on the clock as baseball's next hot team..."

 

I think that makes Buxton 1.5 times as good as the other prospects?

 

Let's get this moving forward to the next wave, already.

[kab21]

I think buxton is the next big thing also but he doesn't have Justin Upton power. he isn't going to fill out like Justin Upton.

[cmathewson]

It's too early to tell how much power he develops. His power score jumped about 20 over the last offseason, when he put on 20 pounds of muscle. He'll continue to grow over the next three years.

[kab21]

At this point I'm not certain anyone has ever seen Justin Upton before. I'm not knocking buxton's power at all. it's a bit of an unknown but if Buxton fills out like JUp then he's not a CF'er.

[cmathewson]

No we haven't seen one of the best players in the NL. We just watch Twins games and scratch ourselves. Justin Upton has 70 power. That's in the elite category. I don't have the scout's scores of between 30 and 50 depending on the scout. I'd give him a 50. He's 19 and could fill put another 20 pounds on his frame. So it is possible he gets to 65-70 power. If I were a betting man, I would bet on at least 60. I doubt he'll end up in Upton land, but he could.

[kab21]

No we haven't seen one of the best players in the NL. We just watch Twins games and scratch ourselves. Justin Upton has 70 power. That's in the elite category. I don't have the scout's scores of between 30 and 50 depending on the scout. I'd give him a 50. He's 19 and could fill put another 20 pounds on his frame. So it is possible he gets to 65-70 power. If I were a betting man, I would bet on at least 60. I doubt he'll end up in Upton land, but he could.

 

Poor attempt at sarcasm.

 

My complaint in this thread is that people (including national writers) are trying to compare Buxton's potential power to JUp's. It is clearly imo a step (or two) below that. It doesn't matter if Buxton puts on another 20 lbs. JUp is still more athletic than MCab but that's the body type that he's developing. He's becoming massive and he hits massive HR's.

 

Sano has JUp power and possibly more but Buxton does not. This is not a slam on Buxton. He's probably a top 5 prospect at this point and has a chance at being a perennial AS and MVP candidate. This is a reality check though.

[Turd Furgeson]

I agree with kab21 here. Justin Upton was the Bryce Harper of a few years ago, to a bit of a lesser extent but he was around the level of a prospect before he was drafted. The guy had tremendous raw power in his first year as a prospect.

 

People don't talk about Buxton like that. He has about as much power as B.J., maybe slightly more, but he should hit for a lot better average than B.J.. If he had Justin Upton raw power, we'd be talking about the next Griffey.

[jokin]

I agree with kab21 here. Justin Upton was the Bryce Harper of a few years ago, to a bit of a lesser extent but he was around the level of a prospect before he was drafted. The guy had tremendous raw power in his first year as a prospect.

 

People don't talk about Buxton like that. He has about as much power as B.J., maybe slightly more, but he should hit for a lot better average than B.J.. If he had Justin Upton raw power, we'd be talking about the next Griffey.

 

Let's wait until Buxton fills out his frame before we put the "final word" on him. He will put on at least 20 pounds in the next few years, that's virtually certain. He most likely won't hit HRs like Griffey or JUP, but I think he's got excellent prospects for multiple 30/30 seasons and even a possible career year of 40/40. Regardless, I'll be thrilled if Buxton demonstrates just some of the power potential of those other two. Remember Puckett when he first came up, a singles hitter who ended up with a HOF career in the #3 slot with a tremendous batting slash of .318/.360/.477/.837. Buxton is obviously a far bigger and superior athlete. There's no reason to argue against him having huge potential to eclipse Puckett's line.

To put it in perspective to JUP, his career slash is .278/.359/.483/.842. Buxton doesn't appear to be a "hacker" like Puckett. Buck's OBP should end up being higher with much better plate discipline and his BA and SLG will be supported by his blazing speed. A career OPS above .850 and approaching .900 are lofty goals worth aspiring to.

[cmathewson]

Let's wait until Buxton fills out his frame before we put the "final word" on him. He will put on at least 20 pounds in the next few years, that's virtually certain. He most likely won't hit HRs like Griffey or JUP, but I think he's got excellent prospects for multiple 30/30 seasons and even a possible career year of 40/40. Regardless, I'll be thrilled if Buxton demonstrates just some of the power potential of those other two. Remember Puckett when he first came up, a singles hitter who ended up with a HOF career in the #3 slot with a tremendous batting slash of .318/.360/.477/.837. Buxton is obviously a far bigger and superior athlete. There's no reason to argue against him having huge potential to eclipse Puckett's line.

To put it in perspective to JUP, his career slash is .278/.359/.483/.842. Buxton doesn't appear to be a "hacker" like Puckett. Buck's OBP should end up being higher with much better plate discipline and his BA and SLG will be supported by his blazing speed. A career OPS above .850 and approaching .900 are lofty goals worth aspiring to.

 

This. Also, I looked back at JUP's scouting reports for when he was Buxton's age. The phrase I saw often was "power potential". I think sometimes people retroactively scout players. Yeah he's huge now. He wasn't that huge then. He did have the one thing Buxon is known for, though--bat speed. It's too early to say that Buxton won't get as big or strong as JUP. How likely is it? I'd give it less than 50%.

[ericchri]

Of course Buxton at 19(?) still hasn't grown into his body yet and will be putting on weight before he reaches the majors. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain his current speed once he adds 30 pounds.

 

Have you ever looked at Olympic sprinters? Those guys are ripped. It's about putting on the right kind of muscle and using it properly. If he does nothing but add weight, sure, he might slow a hair, but if he puts in the work properly, that added muscle could actually make him faster. Granted a baseball player's training regimen is not going to be optimized to increasing his speed at the expense of other factors, but filling out is certainly not any guarantee that he'll slow down. That usually happens with time and years passing.

[Siehbiscuit]

I disagree with those that don't think that Buxton will be a power threat. Ken Griffey Jr is easily my favorite player ever and I watched 100's of his games. He was considered a 5 tool guy just like Buxton, but his weakest tool as a "kid" was his power tool which was about a 40-50 projection. He had the perfect swing to generate backspin and loft on the ball that it carried and he became that power hitter as he gained (a lot) weight. Buxton won't always be a "cut" 195-200lb kid. As he fills out his "man" frame and matures there is know doubt he can be a 40 homer guy. Ken Griffey Jr only hit 16HR's as a rookie, then 22, then 27, before he started hitting for great power.

 

Buxton will fill out and be a major run producer, not just a table setter, by his third season in the big leagues.

[kab21]

Absolutely nobody has said that buxton won't be a power threat. The problem I have in this thread is that people are now talking about Buxton as a 30 or even 40 HR hitter. This would put him well beyond Harper's status as a prospect.

 

I did see Justin Upton as a 20 yr old. he had massive power then and it has increased since then.

[Turd Furgeson]

This. Also, I looked back at JUP's scouting reports for when he was Buxton's age. The phrase I saw often was "power potential". I think sometimes people retroactively scout players. Yeah he's huge now. He wasn't that huge then. He did have the one thing Buxon is known for, though--bat speed. It's too early to say that Buxton won't get as big or strong as JUP. How likely is it? I'd give it less than 50%.

 

Power potential is essentially, raw power. If anything, I would say that Upton has underperformed on his power potential/raw power a tad in the pros. Aside from this season, so far anyway.

 

It's not just about being big. As much or more of it has to do with swing mechanics. From what I've seen, Buxton's swing is a bit more on an even plane, through the zone and you're not going to generate a lot of power with a line drive swing like that unless you have Pujols power.

[jokin]

Absolutely nobody has said that buxton won't be a power threat. The problem I have in this thread is that people are now talking about Buxton as a 30 or even 40 HR hitter. This would put him well beyond Harper's status as a prospect.

 

I did see Justin Upton as a 20 yr old. he had massive power then and it has increased since then.

 

I don't think there was anyone alive in 1984 that said Puckett's skinny and stubby body had a chance to hit 30 HRs. Puckett was 24 when he got the early season call-up from AAA. O HRs in 84 and 4 HRs in 85...before he hit 31 in 86 as his body got much stronger.

 

BTW, Puckett jumped from Cal League A ball in 83, to AAA for 21 games in 84, to starting in CF for the Twins in the first month of the season. I hope we see parallel fast track movement from Buck.

[jokin]

Power potential is essentially, raw power. If anything, I would say that Upton has underperformed on his power potential/raw power a tad in the pros. Aside from this season, so far anyway.

 

It's not just about being big. As much or more of it has to do with swing mechanics. From what I've seen, Buxton's swing is a bit more on an even plane, through the zone and you're not going to generate a lot of power with a line drive swing like that unless you have Pujols power.

 

Hank Aaron would beg to differ. (Not saying Buxton is the next Aaron! Just that Aaron was a line drive hitter).

 

Hank Aaron: 6'0" 180#s

Albert Pujols: 6'3" 230#s

Byron Buxton: 6'2# ???#s

[Shane Wahl]

LEN3 stated this evening, citing Tom Kelly, the old curmudgeon himself, not one to throw idle compliments about, who said that Byron Buxton is the fastest player he's ever seen. When asked to qualify, that characterization included faster than Revere, Guzman and Wilson. Confirms what Sickels recently had to say about Buxton's Plate-to-First speed being "unreal".

 

I posted a video of Buxton's triple in the Buxton thread. He gets to third in 11 seconds. It's crazy.

[Turd Furgeson]

So what's the argument now? You guys are throwing out Hall of Famers to draw your comparisons from. No one is saying that Buxton has no shot of ever hitting 30 home runs. To say he has BJ Upton power is to say mid 20 home run power, with the potential to touch 30. If you are saying he has Justin Upton power, that is someone who sits at 30 home runs with the potential to touch 40. There's quite a difference there.

 

There's a lot more that goes into home run power then how big the guy is. Does he undercut the ball, does he create a lot of torque and backspin? Bat speed. Does he generate power with his legs? I mean, there's a more as well.

 

It's a question of probability. Could Buxton sustain 30 home run seasons? I suppose there is an outside chance of that but based on what he's shown thus far, it's not likely. That's all I'm saying.

[jokin]

So what's the argument now? You guys are throwing out Hall of Famers to draw your comparisons from. No one is saying that Buxton has no shot of ever hitting 30 home runs. To say he has BJ Upton power is to say mid 20 home run power, with the potential to touch 30. If you are saying he has Justin Upton power, that is someone who sits at 30 home runs with the potential to touch 40. There's quite a difference there.

 

There's a lot more that goes into home run power then how big the guy is. Does he undercut the ball, does he create a lot of torque and backspin? Bat speed. Does he generate power with his legs? I mean, there's a more as well.

 

It's a question of probability. Could Buxton sustain 30 home run seasons? I suppose there is an outside chance of that but based on what he's shown thus far, it's not likely. That's all I'm saying.

 

 

 

That's so true...... except that someone just recently posted:

 

The problem I have in this thread is that people are now talking about Buxton as a 30... HR hitter...

 

I get the mechanical points in your second paragraph. Uber-talented, but young, raw players learn and adapt and tend to incorporate some of those finer mechancal underpinnings into their games as they mature.

 

I don't think anyone on this board has said that Buxton currently possesses JUP power. Many national experts see a potential ceiling to his career arc that could possibly contain "some" JUP characteristics. You've pointed out that at this point he swings more on a level plane. But his power rating has recently been upgraded, as have other phenoms as they continue to compile experience and their bodies mature. Examples were given. By all reports, Buxton is as athletic as many of the greats, and his body is still sinewy raw- but no one has said that he has already hit peak physical maturity, no more assessments will need to be changed and that he should be classified as an all-time great. It's all about potential at this point. And some of us on TD, as well as the national experts, have pointed out that line drive hitters can still have power components in their games. That's all I'm saying.

[kab21]

I don't think there was anyone alive in 1984 that said Puckett's skinny and stubby body had a chance to hit 30 HRs. Puckett was 24 when he got the early season call-up from AAA. O HRs in 84 and 4 HRs in 85...before he hit 31 in 86 as his body got much stronger.

 

BTW, Puckett jumped from Cal League A ball in 83, to AAA for 21 games in 84, to starting in CF for the Twins in the first month of the season. I hope we see parallel fast track movement from Buck.

 

you still aren't getting it. Puckett might have hit 30+ HR once in his career but that doesn't mean that his power tool compares to a player that I consider to be top ten in the MLB in raw power. JUp is a beast. Sano's raw power compares to Upton's and potentially is even better. Buxton's raw power does not and potentially does not.

[jokin]

you still aren't getting it. Puckett might have hit 30+ HR once in his career but that doesn't mean that his power tool compares to a player that I consider to be top ten in the MLB in raw power. JUp is a beast. Sano's raw power compares to Upton's and potentially is even better. Buxton's raw power does not and potentially does not.

 

I have been getting it. I have only claimed that Buxton has a power potential higher than his current rating....

 

Oh by the way....I think our boy is going to soon earn a new nickname....after his 9th inning, game-winning Grand Slam tonight (8th HR of the season)....How does "Big-Time Buxton" grab you?

[30whales]

I have been getting it. I have only claimed that Buxton has a power potential higher than his current rating....

 

Oh by the way....I think our boy is going to soon earn a new nickname....after his 9th inning, game-winning Grand Slam tonight (8th HR of the season)....How does "Big-Time Buxton" grab you?

 

It would be pretty cool if someone got their hands on a video of that. The video of him hitting that triple was impressive!

[jokin]

It would be pretty cool if someone got their hands on a video of that. The video of him hitting that triple was impressive!

 

That triple was big-time- someone else on TD said it clocked out at 11 seconds? Crazy! I have a feeling Jimminy Crikket will have a link before long. Going to see the Kernels this weekend. I can't remember a time since the early 80s when it was a more exciting time for the Twins farm system.

[30whales]

That triple was big-time- someone else on TD said it clocked out at 11 seconds? Crazy! I have a feeling Jimminy Crikket will have a link before long. Going to see the Kernels this weekend. I can't remember a time since the early 80s when it was a more exciting time for the Twins farm system.

 

I am jealous. I wish I could go see some of these minor league teams but too far!

[30whales]

Here it is!

[video=youtube_share;ESFtlpmPxT4]