Potential 2013 Twins draft pick: Kohl Stewart

[nicksaviking]

If he has a reasonable ETA of 2015, he just became my top choice (sans an Appel/Gray drop), as he could help out the next wave. 2017 is more reasonable though.

 

I agree. I still want him but no way should we be hoping for an ETA of 2015. Berrios was drafted a year before him and won't likely be up until 2015 under the best scenario, and among Berrios' high marks are his refined technique in contrast to his age and level. By all acounts, Stewart has more rough edges which almost always translates to longer development.

[Oxtung]

If he has a reasonable ETA of 2015, he just became my top choice (sans an Appel/Gray drop), as he could help out the next wave. 2017 is more reasonable though.

 

I really don't understand this line of thought. If the question is quicker to MLB vs. better talent (which is what you seem to be saying and others have hinted at as well), talent should always win out. Either way you're going to get 6 years of cheaper team control. Whether that talent is there from 2015-2020 or 2017-2022 isn't worth taking an inferior player, at least IMO.

[kab21]

The reason to not take Stewart isn't if he might not make the majors until 2017. The reason not to take Stewart is that he might not make it out of AA. He has some great upside but he also has significant downside.

[cmb0252]

The reason to not take Stewart isn't if he might not make the majors until 2017. The reason not to take Stewart is that he might not make it out of AA. He has some great upside but he also has significant downside.

 

Agreed.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

The reason to not take Stewart isn't if he might not make the majors until 2017. The reason not to take Stewart is that he might not make it out of AA. He has some great upside but he also has significant downside.

 

Manaea might not either.

[kab21]

Manaea might not either.

 

I'm not a Manaea fan right now. He's a college pitcher with the risk/upside of a HS'er. Unless he shows that he is healthy and throwing in the low/mid 90's then he isn't even a consideration at #4 imo.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

My feeling is that when Radcliff told Doogie there were seven guys, he was referring to Appel, Gray, Bryant, Stewart, Manaea, Frazier and Meadows. From what I've heard recently, they'll have Frazier on the board higher than Meadows.

 

That leaves Stewart, Manaea, and Frazier, most likely, and it would be hard to say any one of them is more or less risky than the others.

[cmb0252]

I'm not a Manaea fan right now. He's a college pitcher with the risk/upside of a HS'er. Unless he shows that he is healthy and throwing in the low/mid 90's then he isn't even a consideration at #4 imo.

 

He pitched well yesterday, albeit vs Alcorn State, in a 100 pitch/1ER performance. I have read about the quality of his stuff yet but he did have a 11/1 K/BB ratio. I definitely agree with you though that he feels like a HS prospect because of the risk/reward.

 

The Twins are just stuck at the worst place to be in the top of the draft, the pick after the consensus guys. Obviously things can change but right now mocks have Appel/Gray/Bryant going 1-2-3 with us grabbing a HSer or reaching for a college guy.

[diehardtwinsfan]

so in other words they should have sucked a bit more last year.

[Brodin4Calder]

so in other words they should have sucked a bit more last year.

 

Yep, they should of realized if were gonna be bad than lets get a really good draft pick. Imagine having Buxton, Sano, Meyer, Gibson and Appel or Gray all in our prospect group!

 

This reminds me of the Vikings in the 12' draft. We had Ponder as a QB with the 3rd overall pick. RG3 and Luck went 1 and 2 and we were stuck with a lineman. Just because we didnt lose 1 more game we dont have a franchise QB and have no shot at winning the SB until we do. Thats the difference in 1 draft spot. And we beat WSH that season, if we didnt we would of had the 2nd pick and would of drafted RG3. Instead we beat them and they have a frachise QB for the next 10+ years while we have to keep searching.

[30whales]

Yep, they should of realized if were gonna be bad than lets get a really good draft pick. Imagine having Buxton, Sano, Meyer, Gibson and Appel or Gray all in our prospect group!

 

This reminds me of the Vikings in the 12' draft. We had Ponder as a QB with the 3rd overall pick. RG3 and Luck went 1 and 2 and we were stuck with a lineman. Just because we didnt lose 1 more game we dont have a franchise QB and have no shot at winning the SB until we do. Thats the difference in 1 draft spot. And we beat WSH that season, if we didnt we would of had the 2nd pick and would of drafted RG3. Instead we beat them and they have a frachise QB for the next 10+ years while we have to keep searching.

 

I don't want to switch this over to a Vikings thread but I am just going to say that if the Vikings would have ended up with the #2 overall pick there is no way they would have drafted Robert Griffin III. They would have done exactly what St. Louis did and traded out of the spot.

[cmb0252]

From Christopher Crawford:

 

Stewart was sensational against Nolan Catholic in the 5A playoffs, pitching a complete-game shutout while giving up just two hits and striking out 14. The right-hander’s fastball was clocked in the mid 90s, and his devastating slider gave hitters trouble all afternoon.

 

“He’d be the No. 2 player on the board if I was running the show,” an NL East scout said. He’s got two 70 (on the 20-80 scouting scale) pitches in his heater and his slider, and I think the curve and change have gotten better. He’s not the prettiest mechanically but he’s got good rhythm and he knows how to pitch. That’s potential ace stuff, to me.”

[gunnarthor]

Well, he certainly wouldn't be the worst #4 pick we could manage. I guess I'm growing on him over Manaea.

[Oxtung]

How much does velocity typically increase between HS and the majors as prospects mature? I'm sure to a large extent it is dependent on the prospect but I'm just wondering if he is hitting 94 right now what is the expectation 5 years from now when he is 23?

[drjim]

How much does velocity typically increase between HS and the majors as prospects mature? I'm sure to a large extent it is dependent on the prospect but I'm just wondering if he is hitting 94 right now what is the expectation 5 years from now when he is 23?

 

Doesn't necessarily go up. One of the inherent risks of prep pitchers.

[nicksaviking]

Doesn't necessarily go up. One of the inherent risks of prep pitchers.

 

Of course one criticism is his unorthodoxed technique. Refining a technique could also help add velocity. Of course it's possilbe it could decrease it too.

 

He's in my top 4 though. If he's also in the Twins top 4, I'm not going to be as butt hurt as I would have been two weeks ago assuming they miss out on Gray, Appel and Bryant.

[Siehbiscuit]

Manaea to me is Liriano 2.0! He can be dominant for stretches (see Cape Cod), but can also be very inconsistent (most of this season). The Twins need to go either "all in" on the upside of a HS kid (any position) or take the best bat available, regardless of position. More and more I am liking Stewart. The best way to acquire ace-caliber talent is via the draft. Last year we had the opportunity with Appel, Gausman, etc....but Buxton is showing he was the right choice. Between Frazier and Stewart this year, I go Stewart. He will play baseball guaranteed.

 

Regarding Stewart's signability issues... there won't be much leverage. I follow CFB recruiting A LOT and he is a top 20 QB, but definitely not a top 5 or 10 guy at QB. We aren't talking about a Joe Mauer-type football talent here. Obviously, Manziel is there for now, but so is Army All-American Matt Davis from the 2012 class. In fact, Stewart wasn't even the highest regarded QB prospect in A&M's 2013 class. A kid named Kenny Hill was. Stewart will play baseball and will sign, hopefully with the Twins at #4.

[kab21]

How much does velocity typically increase between HS and the majors as prospects mature? I'm sure to a large extent it is dependent on the prospect but I'm just wondering if he is hitting 94 right now what is the expectation 5 years from now when he is 23?

 

Usually you don't see a big increase although it's different for everyone. yes, there are some that fill out and add strength/velocity but for the most part there doesn't seem to be a big increase. Pitchers work on adding movement. For example the Twins turn everyone into a sinkerballer. In addition the more demanding schedule cancels out any added strength.

[Badsmerf]

Velocity is difficult to predict increasing. We all hoped Deolis Guerra would start sitting in the 90's after the Santana trade as had been advertised. He came to the Twins at age 19 in high A. We had scouting reports of low 90's FB, but when he got here we heard mid to high 80's FB. He never added that velocity we were all hoping for. That is just an example of a guy that didn't add velocity, I'm sure there are plenty others that did when their body matured. I've read a few different articles about how velocity is generated. It is pretty interesting if you are a physics or math geek like me. So much of it is determined by genetics and how your body is built.

[cmb0252]

How much does velocity typically increase between HS and the majors as prospects mature? I'm sure to a large extent it is dependent on the prospect but I'm just wondering if he is hitting 94 right now what is the expectation 5 years from now when he is 23?

 

Everyone above has done a pretty good job answering this question.

 

In regards to Stewart there is a good chance he will gain at least a tick or two to his velocity. Stewart already has a 65 grade fastball with a good down hill plane but there is definitely room for more. He has ideal size at 6'3" with some room to add muscle at 190 lbs. His delivery isn't ideal, like most HS pitchers, but it isn't bad. Working with a professional pitching coach should work wonders smoothing out his delivery. Quitting football and focusing his athletic ability solely on baseball will also help his development.

[cmb0252]

From Jim Callis' chat today:

 

 

• How tough of a sign would Kohl Stewart be for the Twins?
  

Jim Callis: He'll go high enough to sign. He may want to play QB at Texas A&M, but he won't displace Johnny Manziel.

• 
  Is Stewart worthy of a top 5 pick or is he just the best HS arm in a weak draft?
  

Jim Callis: Both.

 

• Is there a chance Houston surprises everyone and goes with RHP,Kohl Stewart #1 overall for like $5mill or C,Reese McGuire for $4mill. To save money for other draft picks.
  

Jim Callis: Don't believe either Stewart or McGuire is in Houston's mix for the No. 1 choice.

[fairweather]

I think it will be hard for the Twins to screw up this draft but I'd stay away from Mcguire and Stewart if I were them. I was in the future the other day and things don't work out for those 2.

[nicksaviking]

I think it will be hard for the Twins to screw up this draft but I'd stay away from Mcguire and Stewart if I were them. I was in the future the other day and things don't work out for those 2.

 

I know but that's because you alterd the timeline when you and Biff put all your money on the 2018 Twins and became rich. I had to go back to 1955 to undo the mess you made when you created the alternate 2013. Fortunately Stewart turns out OK now. McGuire is still a mess though and often takes a facefull of manuer.

[InfraRen]

Poor Reese. I may not want him on the Twins, but I wish manure-facials on no one.