Mackey: Sano Could Hold His Own in the Majors Right Now

[East Coast Twin]

Interesting read on Miguel Sano. Doug Mientkiewicz claims Sano could hold his own at the major league level already at the age of 19.

 

"I don't think Terry (Ryan) can say he's major league hitting ready, but you know what? You wouldn't see his best numbers, but he could hit some homers for you right now, there's no doubt about it. He could hold his own in the big league level right now (at the plate)."

 

"Miggy's been playing so much better at third base. ... He's made more plays than I expected... He looks a lot more comfortable, even from spring training than he does compared to now."

 

He likes to get his glove low to the ground to start with, and that's where he's losing his first-step quickness. We've backed him up a little bit. He's got really good hands, and he's got a cannon for an arm."

 

Sano 'could hold his own' in majors right nows

[Aaron Cross]

They need to do whatever possible to keep him at 3B. One more season of Plouffe is about all I can handle.

[Badsmerf]

They need to do whatever possible to keep him at 3B. One more season of Plouffe is about all I can handle.

A league average defensive 3b that has an OPS of about 800 so far. Terrible.

[Aaron Cross]

He's awful.

[ThePuck]

A league average defensive 3b that has an OPS of about 800 so far. Terrible.

 

Do you believe he's league average 3B defensively?

 

Last year, there were 18 3B who played 800 innings or more...Plouffe ranked dead last for UZR/150. He was 16th out of 18 in defensive runs saved...

 

and he hasn't started off well this season.

[DK]

It looks like Sano may be ready by next year. They need to move him up the latter soon. That is great news for Twins fans. If Hicks can straighten out his game and Arcia can handle the pressure of the big league the Twins could become an exiting team to watch. If two or three of the young pitchers can make the leap to the bigs, then the Twins could be in the hunt next year.

[Seth Stohs]

I think it's important that he stay at 3B if at all possible, and if it means he's in the minor leagues can extra half-season, I'm completely good with that.

 

That said, I wouldn't be shocked if he gets a September call-up, as he does have to be added to the 40 man roster following the season.

[Thrylos]

That said, I wouldn't be shocked if he gets a September call-up, as he does have to be added to the 40 man roster following the season.

 

Same with Meyer, btw; The issue is 40-man space and the Twins would need to clear by several trades to bring some of the deserving minor leaguers up. If they hold to the likes of Morneau, Willingham, Carroll, Butera, Wood, Thielbar, Pelfrey, Correia etc, I just don't see this happening.

[Guest USAFChief]

It's a long season yet, but I'd be pretty surprised if we saw Sano in the big leagues in 2013. Also, Plouffe hasn't been great, but he's been anything but "awful" so far.

[kab21]

Holding his own does not equal correct development (even if only hitting is considered).

 

It is encouraging that all the right things are being said about Sano though. I'm a little concerned that Sano (buxton) mania might go crazy during the next couple of months though.

 

I have less of a problem with Plouffe at 3B than any option in the current MI but if Sano improved a lot defensively then I would have no problem shuffling Plouffe out to the OF.

[Mike Sixel]

Plouffe could go to first, if Parmalee isn't good....

[Brock Beauchamp]

Do you believe he's league average 3B defensively?

 

Last year, there were 18 3B who played 800 innings or more...Plouffe ranked dead last for UZR/150. He was 16th out of 18 in defensive runs saved...

 

and he hasn't started off well this season.

 

He hasn't started off well at third but it seems to me that he has looked better.

 

Plouffe had ~125 games at 3B prior to 2012. All I want at this point is steady improvement. If he can stick at SS for most of his minor league career, he should be adequate at the hot corner once he gets a full season under his belt.

 

Also, UZR/150 ppppbbbbbtttt. Bad metric.

[Mike Sixel]

I agree with Brock, like always....

[ThePuck]

He hasn't started off well at third but it seems to me that he has looked better.

 

Plouffe had ~125 games at 3B prior to 2012. All I want at this point is steady improvement. If he can stick at SS for most of his minor league career, he should be adequate at the hot corner once he gets a full season under his belt.

 

Also, UZR/150 ppppbbbbbtttt. Bad metric.

 

he doesn't pass the eye test either...he's not, at present, an average 3B defender...he's below average....which was exactly my point. Saying he has an OPS close to .800 while also saying he's an average defender is false. Yes, his OPS is close to .800 right now, but it's early. It was in the mid-.700s last year. If one is gonna praise Plouffe, a more honest way to go about it would be something like: 'I like Home Runs. He can hit home runs, so I can deal with all his other shortcomings.'

 

I know there are people who don't like UZR/150 or UZR or whatever...that's fine..I also provided Defensive Runs Saved.

[Brock Beauchamp]

he doesn't pass the eye test either...he's not, at present, an average 3B defender...he's below average.

 

I know there are people who don't like UZR/150 or UZR or whatever...that's fine..I also provided Defensive Runs Saved.

 

There's a huge difference between UZR, which is a fine metric when dealing with 1+ seasons, and UZR/150, which is complete and utter crap.

 

UZR is widely believed to be completely unreliable at anything less than a full season's worth of play, yet UZR/150 takes partial seasons of UZR and extrapolates the data into a "full season".

 

It's not hard to see why people think the metric is crap (and rightfully so). There isn't a defensive metric out there that the creator will stand behind when using it for partial seasons. 800 innings is... What? 60% of a season?

 

Anyway, back on topic... Is Plouffe average or below average right now? I don't know. The Twins have played all of 14 games on the season. He's made some incredibly stupid plays and he's also made some pretty damned fine ones. I'll hold off judgment until the mercury goes above 40 and the Twins get through more than two weeks of play.

[ThePuck]

There's a huge difference between UZR, which is a fine metric when dealing with 1+ seasons, and UZR/150, which is complete and utter crap.

 

UZR is widely believed to be completely unreliable at anything less than a full season's worth of play, yet UZR/150 takes partial seasons of UZR and extrapolates the data into a "full season".

 

It's not hard to see why people think the metric is crap (and rightfully so). There isn't a defensive metric out there that the creator will stand behind when using it for partial seasons. 800 innings is... What? 60% of a season?

 

Anyway, back on topic... Is Plouffe average or below average right now? I don't know. The Twins have played all of 14 games on the season. He's made some incredibly stupid plays and he's also made some pretty damned fine ones. I'll hold off judgment until the mercury goes above 40 and the Twins get through more than two weeks of play.

 

I understand the argument against UZR/150...again, I provided DRS too. And, again, he doesn't pass the eye test. You wanna say you can't judge whether he is or isn't average or not, that's fine. Where was that statement to badsmerf when he said Plouffe was an average defender at 3B? What evidence is there to suggest THAT. Certainly nothing from last year...and if we can't use this year...then what says he's an average defender?

[Brock Beauchamp]

I understand the argument against UZR/150...again, I provided DRS too.

 

My main point being that all defensive metrics are pretty sketchy at the number of innings we're talking about here.

 

I'm not claiming Plouffe has been good at third (I don't believe he has), but I'm also wary of any defensive metric that says he's worse than Miguel Cabrera in a partial season.

[cmathewson]

Do you believe he's league average 3B defensively?

 

Last year, there were 18 3B who played 800 innings or more...Plouffe ranked dead last for UZR/150. He was 16th out of 18 in defensive runs saved...

 

and he hasn't started off well this season.

 

Last year was his first year of playing the position as a regular. In the interview, Mint basically said what I want to say here: Namely, it takes time to transition from short to third. And it takes practice. What's true of Sano is true of Plouffe. He is still learning the position. But he's much better this year than last. He had a chance to play exclusively at third this spring, and the extra work shows. He's no Beltre, but he's no Cabrera either.

 

Besides, you can't draw many strong conclusions from a UZR/150 sample of roughly a half a season.

 

He's improved. My eyes tell me he's about league average defensively. And he's above average offensively. He's not the third baseman of the future. But for the present, he can hold the position for a couple of years until Sano is ready. Let's not rush Sano. Let's make sure he's ready when he comes up. We don't want him merely holding his own. We want him to dominate.

[ThePuck]

My main point being that all defensive metrics are pretty sketchy at the number of innings we're talking about here.

 

I'm not claiming Plouffe has been good at third (I don't believe he has), but I'm also wary of any defensive metric that says he's worse than Miguel Cabrera in a partial season.

 

I edited and added info...please re-read.

[ThePuck]

Last year was his first year of playing the position as a regular. In the interview, Mint basically said what I want to say here: Namely, it takes time to transition from short to third. And it takes practice. What's true of Sano is true of Plouffe. He is still learning the position. But he's much better this year than last. He had a chance to play exclusively at third this spring, and the extra work shows. He's no Beltre, but he's no Cabrera either.

 

Besides, you can't draw many strong conclusions from a UZR/150 sample of roughly a half a season.

 

He's improved. My eyes tell me he's about league average defensively. And he's above average offensively. He's not the third baseman of the future. But for the present, he can hold the position for a couple of years until Sano is ready. Let's not rush Sano. Let's make sure he's ready when he comes up. We don't want him merely holding his own. We want him to dominate.

 

My eyes don't tell me he's average defensively at 3B. I watch a lot of baseball outside of the Twins and he's below average defensively. He may improve to be an average defender at 3B, he may not. One would have thought after years of playing shortstop he might do THAT well too. Certainly had enough practice. Didn't work out there.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I edited and added info...please re-read.

 

And that's fair enough. Ultimately, I think Plouffe will end up as an average defender at third but right now, I wouldn't label him as such.

 

And really, "average defender" might be his ceiling. Hard to say.

[kab21]

It really doesn't matter what defensive metric you use if you are using less than a season of data.

 

I actually find UZR/150 to be the best but I combine multiple seasons of data but it evens out the playing time when comparing against other players.

[ThePuck]

So, what metric or stat can we use to talk about whether or not he's an average defender at 3B or not? They're all discounted, even though they all say he's well below average.

 

So it's just the eye test? Matter of opinion then...nothing more? I wanna know.

[cmathewson]

My eyes don't tell me he's average defensively at 3B. I watch a lot of baseball outside of the Twins and he's below average defensively. He may improve to be an average defender at 3B, he may not. One would have thought after years of playing shortstop he might do THAT well too. Certainly had enough practice. Didn't work out there.

 

Fair enough. It's early. Not even a whole season of games. But he's got work to do. He doesn't have the softest hands. That's for sure. But he's pretty quick for a third baseman.

 

One thing Sano has (according to both Mint and Molly) is soft hands. His problem is not catching the ball. It's getting to it and throwing it. He's got a rocket arm, which sometimes missfires. And he's really thick in the legs, so his first step is relatively slow. I'm not sure that will ever improve. But I hope he can be quick enough to stay there.

[Willihammer]

Sometimes I think Plouffe couldn't field a sharp ground ball if it hit him in the ear and dropped dead on the ground. And if he did field that ball, there would be the usual 25% chance he makes Justin jump off 1B to catch his throw. But for whatever reason, Plouffe seems to excel at fielding bunts. If this is actually the case, then its only a matter of time before teams figure out that they need to start bunting to 1B instead.

[ThePuck]

Fair enough. It's early. Not even a whole season of games. But he's got work to do. He doesn't have the softest hands. That's for sure. But he's pretty quick for a third baseman.

 

One thing Sano has (according to both Mint and Molly) is soft hands. His problem is not catching the ball. It's getting to it and throwing it. He's got a rocket arm, which sometimes missfires. And he's really thick in the legs, so his first step is relatively slow. I'm not sure that will ever improve. But I hope he can be quick enough to stay there.

 

I think I read that Sano gets too low with his glove to start and that causes him to lose range that way.

[kab21]

So, what metric or stat can we use to talk about whether or not he's an average defender at 3B or not? They're all discounted, even though they all say he's well below average.

 

So it's just the eye test? Matter of opinion then...nothing more? I wanna know.

 

I actually agree with you that Plouffe is not currently an average defender although I think he can be a merely below average but tolerable defender with a decent to pretty good bat.

 

I find it ironic that Plouffe's defense is being used as a reason to move him yet the alternative is Sano. I have no illusions of him being an average defender and merely hope that he wouldn't be one of the worst 3Bman in the majors if he does stick there.

[ThePuck]

I find it ironic that Plouffe's defense is being used as a reason to move...

 

I'm not doing that...I'm just saying his defense stinks at 3B, unfortunately. Hoping he gets better soon.

[beckmt]

Give Sano some time. I will be happy if he make New Britian at midyear.

[cmathewson]

Sometimes I think Plouffe couldn't field a sharp ground ball if it hit him in the ear and dropped dead on the ground. And if he did field that ball, there would be the usual 25% chance he makes Justin jump off 1B to catch his throw. But for whatever reason, Plouffe seems to excel at fielding bunts. If this is actually the case, then its only a matter of time before teams figure out that they need to start bunting to 1B instead.

 

Are you thinking of the Pujols grounder? I'm not sure Superman could have caught that one cleanly. I give him credit for getting in front of that missal and redirecting it to Florimon, who got the out.

 

Plouffe made a couple of errors in the Angels series. Otherwise, he's been steady. He has not cut off as many balls as I would like in the hole. But he has cut off a few sure doubles down the line. I think he's playing closer to the line because Florimon is so good in the hole. He's also played the bunt well.

 

It's not a bad team if the only thing we can complain about is Plouffe. How's that rotation doing again?