Correia's KC start backlash

[Oxtung]

Do you think this had more to do with Correia's inability to pitch passed the seventh inning or due to that we was lifted for a pinch hitter?

 

This reminds me of the Mackey article that suggest the same, but fails to mention that Correia pitched exactly six innings or more 16 times. The fact that Correia was pitching in the national league has more to do with why he didn't pitch late into games than say his lack of ability.

 

Correia coming out for the 8th made sense; it's only in hindsight and our former unbridled hate of Correia that second-guessing seems legitimate.

 

Statistics say that AL pitchers don't pitch any further into games than NL pitchers on average. Starters in each league go 5.x innings in an average start (can't remember the exact decimal). That certainly implies that NL pitchers get pinch hit for not because they're a liability at the plate but rather because they're a liability on the mound. While this certainly isn't definitive re:Correia it is very suggestive.

[jay]

just to be clear, you know that wasn't MY argument, right? :-)

 

Oh yes, just piling on..

[B Richard]

Question(s): Let's say Correia got through the 8th inning without giving up a run. As the game goes into the 9th, do you trot him back out there? Is it dependent upon pitch count? The game is 1-0 and you have a solid closer. Do you put Correia out for the 9th inning of his shutout? Do you consider his historical K/9 numbers or lengthy track record?

[Alex]

Statistics say that AL pitchers don't pitch any further into games than NL pitchers on average. Starters in each league go 5.x innings in an average start (can't remember the exact decimal). That certainly implies that NL pitchers get pinch hit for not because they're a liability at the plate but rather because they're a liability on the mound. While this certainly isn't definitive re:Correia it is very suggestive.

 

I was actually going to point this out. If Correia finished the 7th in an NL game with no runs and the pitch count, they leave him in, too. So, in this instance, I think that there is no real good answer. The fact that he didn't pitch beyond 7 innings is probably telling, but it's tough to pull a guy that's given up no runs AND his stuff looks like it's working (in his case, getting a ton of ground balls).

[jay]

Question(s): Let's say Correia got through the 8th inning without giving up a run. As the game goes into the 9th, do you trot him back out there? Is it dependent upon pitch count? The game is 1-0 and you have a solid closer. Do you put Correia out for the 9th inning of his shutout? Do you consider his historical K/9 numbers or lengthy track record?

 

Good question. I think you'd put him back out there if the pitch count was reasonable for a chance to finish the game. The key is that you'd have your closer warming and ready in case the plan goes awry. It illustrates the point many are making that Burton should have been ready to go.

[snepp]

This I a great post. People were so pissed off about the Correia signing that they hope he fails. They are like Limbaugh hoping Obama fails. The guy pitched a great game and had a crummy 8th. Should he have been out there? I think so. If his pitch count is in the mid 90's, possibly not. But in that situation, if it is any other pitcher, you would have agreed with the decision. Every quality start from Correia is another slap in the face of people like ThePuck.

 

Strawman, obliterated.

 

 

 

Bonnes, can we add, "egregious and/or inflammatory strawmen" to the list of TD no-no's?

[TheLeviathan]

It was a one run game. The margin for error is zero. You don't "trust" anyone to get through that and tough it out. The moment he falters, you make the call to the pen.

 

Yeah but that was HIS run. Gardy said so. God that quote disgusts me more each time I think about it.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm not a Gardy fan by any means, but he's stuck between a rock and a hardplace for this one. If you bring in Burton to start the 8th and he blows it, the same people are screaming about why KC was taken out. I tend to agree that Burton and Perk should have been warming up to keep KC on a short leash, but I'm not so certain that the naysayers wouldn't have been out regardless.

[glunn]

Strawman, obliterated.

 

 

 

Bonnes, can we add, "egregious and/or inflammatory strawmen" to the list of TD no-no's?

 

I deleted the post because of the personal attack at the end, and the inflammatory tone throughout, but will leave the quote here as a caution to those who might post in this manner.

[ThePuck]

'Every quality start from Correia is another slap in the face of people like ThePuck.'

 

'Finally, if Burton had blow it in the 8th, ThePuck would be ranting about "80 pitches" and "this is a veteran who we're paying big money to" and "Fire Gardy". Some people just wanna watch the world burn. '

 

These are, apparently, NOT unprovoked personal attacks on me...they're okay.

[Brock Beauchamp]

'Every quality start from Correia is another slap in the face of people like ThePuck.'

 

'Finally, if Burton had blow it in the 8th, ThePuck would be ranting about "80 pitches" and "this is a veteran who we're paying big money to" and "Fire Gardy". Some people just wanna watch the world burn. '

 

These are, apparently, NOT unprovoked personal attacks on me...they're okay.

 

I'll show you a personal attack, you mealy-mouthed little--

 

Hey look, squirrel!

 

*runs off*

[Riverbrian]

We should prepare ourselves because it won't be the last time that Gardy stays with someone too long.

 

There will also be moments where Gardy pulls someone to quick. There will also be moments where it all works out great.

 

Tampa Bay Fans should also prepare themselves for moments where Joe Maddon stays with a pitcher too long.

 

Same thing for Seattle Fans... Boston Fans... Dodger Fans and Ft. Myers Miracle Fans.

 

This kinda stuff happens a lot... Too often to get worked up over every time it happens.

 

As for the argument that has been made that Kevin Correia isn't good enough to pitch the 8th(average pitcher, low strikeout, pitch to contact, Terrible stats from years past, whatever phrase was used for the sentiment)... Can I ask... Why simply focus on the 8th??? Wouldn't the same argument hold true for the 7th??? I notice no one is complaining about Correia coming out to pitch the 7th. It's hard to believe that hindsight isn't a major component of this discussion.

 

Bottom line... He cruised thru 7... 5 hits... 84 Pitches. Why would any manager assume that he has someone pitching better in the bullpen at that point? Past stats or performance has nothing to do with what is happening on the day in question. If he's dealing... Let him deal.

 

If you have to pull him because you don't trust him because of past stats. Cut him right now because you wouldn't trust him in the 1st or 4th inning either. Trust apparently isn't a problem between Gardy and Correia right now... It does seem to be the issue of some posters on TD. (please don't take that personally anyone).

 

I would question any manager who is cocky enough to take out a pitcher who is under pitch count and cruising and still assume he has someone better in the pen. If that's the case... Our Bullpen Rocks. We should have no problems with the pen from here on out because we have better arms in pen than guys who are throwing a 5 hitter thru 7.

 

Gardy should have had someone warmed. The Twins hitters should have laid off the low slider from Santana and Correia should have started the 8th.

[ashbury]

Why simply focus on the 8th??? Wouldn't the same argument hold true for the 7th??? I notice no one is complaining about Correia coming out to pitch the 7th. It's hard to believe that hindsight isn't a major component of this discussion.

 

It's a fair question but I think there is a big difference. If you have constructed your bullpen, as a lot of teams do, to have a setup man and a closer who are markedly better than the rest of the options, then in a one-run game having your starter finish 7 instead of 6 is a big deal.

 

But that raises the question, is Burton as your setup man that good? And that's where Gardy may have specific information that trumps my analysis: if he and his coach don't think he's in midseason form yet, or is nursing an unpublicized injury, or any of various other reasons, then maybe Perkins is the only option who is clearly better than a starter who has put up 7 innings. So that's an argument in favor of what Gardy did.

 

I'll turn the Our Bullpen Rocks argument on its head, though, and say that if we *don't* have two pitching options better than a guy with Correia's track record, to pitch the 8th and 9th in specifically a 1-0 game, maybe Our Bullpen Sucks.

 

You can manage by looking at the statistics, but what most statistics can't convey is the additional information that in *this* game Correia has pitched 7 innings in unusually good form. Maybe someone has performed a Bayesian kind of analysis and concluded that no, pitching results in the next inning are more like a Markov process and thus memory-less, but I don't remember it. If your pitching coach and your own eye don't tell you that he's starting to physically wear down today, then that also argues in favor of the manager's chosen strategy, that a reliever would not be an improvement.

 

Finally, since I'm at it, I meant to add in my earlier post about 1-0 games being unique, that they are different from similar games in two contrasting ways. If it's a shutout but is 3-0 instead of 1-0, then you have a lot more latitude to give your starter the chance to complete the shutout. If instead we are talking about 1-run games, a 3-2 or even 2-1 game is different in that your starter has done at least something to merit his removal when you give him the bad news, whereas the 1-0 variant means you are really the bad guy for taking him out. Being in a 1-0 game definitely is the harder of both worlds, for the manager. (And then there's the 0-0 games - remember Tom Kelly's quote after leaving Morris in for one more inning, "hey, it's only the 7th game of the World Series". )

[jokin]

 

But that raises the question, is Burton as your setup man that good? And that's where Gardy may have specific information that trumps my analysis: if he and his coach don't think he's in midseason form yet, or is nursing an unpublicized injury, or any of various other reasons, then maybe Perkins is the only option who is clearly better than a starter who has put up 7 innings. So that's an argument in favor of what Gardy did.

 

I'll turn the Our Bullpen Rocks argument on its head, though, and say that if we *don't* have two pitching options better than a guy with Correia's track record, to pitch the 8th and 9th in specifically a 1-0 game, maybe Our Bullpen Sucks.

 

 

This. I thought it was obvious that the Braintrust was trying desperately NOT to warm Burton up if they could possibly help it.

[Riverbrian]

It's a fair question but I think there is a big difference. If you have constructed your bullpen, as a lot of teams do, to have a setup man and a closer who are markedly better than the rest of the options, then in a one-run game having your starter finish 7 instead of 6 is a big deal.

 

OK but only if I'm assured by everybody... That if the Royals would have scored 3 in the 7th instead of the 8th.

 

They wouldn't have tossed out the argument that Correia has only gone 7 innings 3 times. Correia is a pitch to contact guy who doesn't strike anyone out. How can you leave a mediocre pitcher out there in 1-0 game when you have Roenicke or Duensing or Burton in the pen.

[Riverbrian]

 

I'll turn the Our Bullpen Rocks argument on its head, though, and say that if we *don't* have two pitching options better than a guy with Correia's track record, to pitch the 8th and 9th in specifically a 1-0 game, maybe Our Bullpen Sucks.

 

You can manage by looking at the statistics, but what most statistics can't convey is the additional information that in *this* game Correia has pitched 7 innings in unusually good form.

 

Your entire post was fantastic. Sorry I had to delete a bunch of it.

 

*this* game. That's my point. Past stats should mean nothing to a manager if a guy is getting it done in *this* game.

 

Jeez... He's been pitching great right now but he didn't pitch well against the Reds in 2012. It has nothing to do with him tonight.

 

I understand set up man and Closer but as a manager. If I got a guy pitching like Correia was. No way I'm gonna assume that my set up guy is better *tonight*. Especially when he is under pitch count.

[ashbury]

OK but only if I'm assured by everybody... That if the Royals would have scored 3 in the 7th instead of the 8th. They wouldn't have tossed out the argument that Correia has only gone 7 innings 3 times.

 

Probably "everybody" should send you private messages instead of posting, to assure you.

 

Just to be clear, I'm in the "send him out to start the 8th but with a one-baserunner leash" camp, not "don't send him out at all". So, running the clock back to the 7th, I don't think I have Burton warming up, but maybe Fien (did Gardy?). Correia did get the first two guys out, then gave up the single to Hosmer. Dangerous but non-Allstar Francoeur coming up to bat, and Hosmer's not a bad runner. I think I roll the dice with Correia to get the third out. If Francoeur reaches, whether or not Hosmer scores, I go to Fien, planning for Burton in the 8th and Perk in the 9th. So then, in your scenario... if Correia actually gives up 3 runs, I am griping about not having the bullpen come in, same as now. My argument in this scenario isn't so much that Correia's gone 7 only 3 times, but it's a 1-0 game up to that point, things are just different when it's 1-0, yadda yadda.

[snepp]

Just to be clear, I'm in the "send him out to start the 8th but with a one-baserunner leash" camp, not "don't send him out at all".

 

I think that's the most populous camp.

 

 

 

Conformer.

 

 

 

 

 

j/k

[Willihammer]

If instead we are talking about 1-run games, 3-2 or even 2-1 game is different in that your starter has done at least something to merit his removal when you give him the bad news, whereas the 1-0 variant means you are really the bad guy for taking him out.

 

IN light of GArdy's postgame quotes, this really seems to be the crux of the issue, which is a shame. By asking Correia to get that strikeout of Gordon, he not only setup his team to blow their lead, but he transferred the blame onto Correia instead risking that he take any blame in the event that Burton or someone more qualified to get a strikeout in that spot were to fail.

[ashbury]

*this* game. That's my point. Past stats should mean nothing to a manager if a guy is getting it done in *this* game.

 

Thanks for the compliment. As for this particular point, I would not go as far as you do to say ignore past stats in this situation; a game like Strat-o-Matic can do a convincing job of giving you a game scoresheet that is hard to distinguish from a real-life one, just from season-long stats and a set of dice. Things we don't thoroughly understand we lump together as "random chance", and if someone else (like a baseball manager) believes he has additional insight but it blows up on him anyway, it *may* be correct to crow that I could have told him better just by looking at the stats - we know that experts in any field may believe things that aren't actually true. But, the comment you highlighted is my acknowledgement that there remains a very human factor in the game, and also that Gardy may have information that is not only not available to me, but might actually be pertinent. I say that a little humorously, but also with plenty of humility, to go along with a less-humble view that it's still best in the long run to rely on past performance rather than hunches and loyalty and short-run results.

[ashbury]

IN light of GArdy's postgame quotes, this really seems to be the crux of the issue, which is a shame. By asking Correia to get that strikeout of Gordon, he not only setup his team to blow their lead, but he transferred the blame onto Correia instead risking that he take any blame in the event that Burton or someone more qualified to get a strikeout in that spot were to fail.

 

I've been dancing around this for several posts in this thread, and came to realize a few of them ago that I'm basically accusing Gardy of cowardice. I don't like that, and it would not be something I could say to his face, so I don't know how to reconcile that.

[Riverbrian]

Would anyone have walked Gordon intentionally? I think I would have. Escobar is a tough turn but you take the lefty Gordon out of play.

[ashbury]

Conformer.

 

You all are just comforming to me.

[jokin]

You all are just comforming to me.

 

http://thinkceo.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/idea.jpg?w=630

[Willihammer]

I've been dancing around this for several posts in this thread, and came to realize a few of them ago that I'm basically accusing Gardy of cowardice. I don't like that, and it would not be something I could say to his face, so I don't know how to reconcile that.

I would call it weariness. I'm sure after 12 years of dealing with the same reporters after every game, it might have a subconscious effect on your managerial style. After yesterday's game, the reporters had nothing. The players blew that game, not the manager.*

 

*But the manager might have saved that game too.

[snepp]

You all are just comforming to me.

 

Would that make you a conformerer?

[ashbury]

Would that make you a conformerer?

 

[ashbury]

I would call it weariness.

 

Much better. Not, "you took the cowardly path in that game, Ron." Just, "you look tired, Ron." That's what I'll say when I shake his hand.

[glunn]

'Every quality start from Correia is another slap in the face of people like ThePuck.'

 

'Finally, if Burton had blow it in the 8th, ThePuck would be ranting about "80 pitches" and "this is a veteran who we're paying big money to" and "Fire Gardy". Some people just wanna watch the world burn. '

 

These are, apparently, NOT unprovoked personal attacks on me...they're okay.

 

They are NOT OK, and the posters have been warned, and I know that I deleted one of these already. But two wrongs don't make a right and people need to report this stuff to the moderators, NOT escalate the childish feuding or there will be consequences. This is a baseball discussion site, not the Jerry Springer show, and we all want the Twins to do well. Let's pull together and debate as passionately as people feel like debating, but without the personal attacks.

[Twins Twerp]

Hey puck...didnt mean to affend you...still pissed about my bracket. Just wanted to state that the tone of the website has become extremely twin negative and im not sure why. I have hypothesized with my friends and we have decided the website is not viewed by the people who are general fans. When you obsess about something everyday you tend to view it negatively ie: your job. My counter argument is that I do a certain thing everyday and still enjoy it evertime. I will let everyone else be the judge on why the tone tends to be negative on every move the organization makes. (I know I will get 100 responses about back to back poopy seasons so spare me that response please, my brother)