Rosenthal: Gardy's Job Prospects

[Mr. Brooks]

If you say so...I'm glad those convince you. My point was he'll have less opps with RISP batting 2nd. What stats show that isn't true?

 

It depends on whether you want more RBI's for Joe, or if you want more RBI's for the team.

Sure, Mauer's RBI chances could go down slightly (while you are right that he'll get less RBI chances in the 1st inning, you also have to remember he'll get an extra PA every 9 games or so), but if it allows the team as a whole to get more RBI, isn't that what is more important?

[ThePuck]

It depends on whether you want more RBI's for Joe, or if you want more RBI's for the team.

Sure, Mauer's RBI chances could go down slightly (while you are right that he'll get less RBI chances in the 1st inning, you also have to remember he'll get an extra PA every 9 games or so), but if it allows the team as a whole to get more RBI, isn't that what is more important?

 

If people believe giving the hitter who does best with RISP less opportunities with RISP will make the team score more runs, than yes it's best if he bats 2nd. I'm not anywhere near convinced that's true...especiallywith the way Gardy likes to use his #2 hitter.

[Kwak]

Hooray, let's give our best hitter with RISP LESS opportunities w/RISP!...

 

I have to disagree! I had decided not to post my thought on the Who should bat #2 thread--but here is the gist of my point: After the first inning the Twins often build a threat when the bottom of the order finally gets "their base", and up comes the #2 hitter, some slap-and-dash, infield-hit specialist. The OF is brought in very shallow because this guy has zero-power, making it highly unlikely that a runner on 2nd scores. The infield hit isn't of more value than a BB. I would sure rather have Mauer batting with the big guns on deck, than the Casilla's, Castino's, Revere's or Jamie Carroll batting with Mauer on deck.

[ThePuck]

well, I'm most definitely in the minority, I must be mistaken...

[jokin]

Update from the other Mauer 2-hole thread:

 

Originally Posted by Physics Guy

I was listening to Peliserro on 1500 this morning and he said that Gardy is planning on hitting Mauer #2. If true, we have some progress folks.

 

Goin's computer must have spit- not coughed.

Gardy blinked. I'll take that as progress.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

Why change managers? When the larger perspective of baseball gets lost in routine, and everything gets stale. Is there a better example than this inane discussion regarding whether Joe should bat 2nd or 3rd? It's like this is the only perspective we can default into, as we critique Gardy, is his lineup. He's stale, and we are too. I want do discuss something new. A new manager, and a new strategy, will give life to everyone, especially those who find their names in the lineup card.

[Kobs]

Managers are not a significant influence on the team. Gardy is thought of as a good manager because the team won the division several times. It has nothing to do with anything specifically attributable to him. When the players were good, they won. When they weren't, they lost. There is no common thumbprint on the team over the past dozen years. No discernible emphasis aside from Anderson's pitching-on-the-cheap no walks strategy.

[glunn]

I spent a lot of time deleting posts from this thread this morning. I realize that it is tempting for users to try to police a thread when it is going in a bad direction. Unfortunately this often leads to feuding that clogs the thread with additional non-baseball drama.

 

Please report problem posts and refrain from trying to educate the poster, unless you are willing to be VERY respectful in your comments.

[jokin]

from the story a Mauer quote

"Whether I'm hitting third or second, I don't know. I don't have the answer right now. I don't need to figure it out."

That does not hint at "I am for it"

 

As fpr a Carew/Mauer comparison. Carew was a singles hitter. Mauer has shown more power and more patience in drawing more walks. Not at all the same kind of hitter.

 

VERY Respectful and educational post to replace deleted post. These were the Mauer quotes that you didn't cite that did hint at Mauer's support of trying the 2-hole:

 

Gardy wouldn't really ask a three-time batting champion, who has basically been entrenched as the Twins' No. 3 hitter for the past decade, to take perfectly hittable pitches just so Hicks can have a few cracks at stealing second.

 

Would he?

"I take a lot of pitches, anyway," Mauer says.

 

 

Nothing has been decided, but Gardenhire and Mauer have had that discussion about how to solve the riddle at the top of the Twins' lineup.

 

 

I think whether I hit second or third, it's not a set-in-stone thing."

 

 

 

 

"I think the type of hitter I am, if I get an opportunity to drive runs in, I'm going to try to," Mauer says. "That's kind of how it's been ever since I got here. Obviously, we have to find a formula that gives us the best chance to win.

 

 

As for Carew-Mauer, I never said they were the same kind of hitter. I said that other than bunting, there wasn't really anything that Mauer couldn't do that Carew did. As far as similarities, they both are high contact, high in-control, go with the pitch, hitters. As I stated by quoting Mauer's numbers, Mauer's OPS indicates the qualitative differences in their game with respect to power, his numbers obviously qualify him to bat 2nd as long-term studies indicate that the team's best hitter should be in the 2-spot, not the 3-spot. Regarding BB%, Carew had an 11.03% BB rate in the last 12 years of his career, a marked change from his early years, compared to Mauer's career 12.2% rate, so the patience factor isn't really that far off. And in Carew's last 12 years, his BB/K ratio was around 1.30 versus Mauer's career rate of 1.17. In addition, of Carew's 3053 hits, 78.7% were singles. Mauer's singles/total hits rate is 71.6%.

 

The part of Beradino's article that would please AL East managers and the other enlightened 21st Century managers is this, and is a positive development if the Twins are finally seeing the light and catching on:

 

For his career, Mauer has 327 plate appearances as a No. 2 hitter, covering 73 starts. His OBP as a No. 2 hitter hitter is 35 points lower than his .408 standard over 916 games in the No. 3 slot. However, Mauer's slugging percentage is 49 points higher when hitting second, which gives him a combined OPS that is 14 points higher (.885 to .871) when hitting second.

[glunn]

Thanks, jokin. Much better.

[jokin]

Thanks, jokin. Much better.

 

No problem, my snark calibrator was on the fritz this morning:)

[The Wise One]

VERY Respectful and educational post to replace deleted post. These were the Mauer quotes that you didn't cite that did hint at Mauer's support of trying the 2-hole:

 

As for Carew-Mauer, I never said they were the same kind of hitter. I said that other than bunting, there wasn't really anything that Mauer couldn't do that Carew did. As far as similarities, they both are high contact, high in-control, go with the pitch, hitters. As I stated by quoting Mauer's numbers, Mauer's OPS indicates the qualitative differences in their game with respect to power, his numbers obviously qualify him to bat 2nd as long-term studies indicate that the team's best hitter should be in the 2-spot, not the 3-spot. Regarding BB%, Carew had an 11.03% BB rate in the last 12 years of his career, a marked change from his early years, compared to Mauer's career 12.2% rate, so the patience factor isn't really that far off. And in Carew's last 12 years, his BB/K ratio was around 1.30 versus Mauer's career rate of 1.17. In addition, of Carew's 3053 hits, 78.7% were singles. Mauer's singles/total hits rate is 71.6%.

 

The part of Beradino's article that would please AL East managers and the other enlightened 21st Century managers is this, and is a positive development if the Twins are finally seeing the light and catching on:

 

So if his obp goes down in the 2 spot, isn't that the oposite of what you want? If his slugging percent goes up, isn't that what you want out of the three spot?

 

Carew was a leadoff hitter. So any comparison between the two is sort of useless as a 2 versus three slot argument for Mauer. Carew could steal a base, too.

[jokin]

So if his obp goes down in the 2 spot, isn't that the oposite of what you want? If his slugging percent goes up, isn't that what you want out of the three spot?

 

Carew was a leadoff hitter. So any comparison between the two is sort of useless as a 2 versus three slot argument for Mauer. Carew could steal a base, too.

 

Really? Beg to differ. Carew's career batting slots:

 

Leadoff: 370 games

2-Hole: 1149 games

3-spot: 679 games

[jokin]

So if his obp goes down in the 2 spot, isn't that the oposite of what you want? If his slugging percent goes up, isn't that what you want out of the three spot?

 

Carew was a leadoff hitter. So any comparison between the two is sort of useless as a 2 versus three slot argument for Mauer. Carew could steal a base, too.

 

 

This is 20th Century thinking and until now, representative of Gardy-thought. The entire AL East and many, many other managers are now placing high OPS players, combining some superior combination of OBP and SLG in the 2-hole, as the data is showing that SPEED, bunting ability and general "getting after it" situational scrappiness in the second slot is an inferior strategy.

[LaBombo]

So if his obp goes down in the 2 spot, isn't that the oposite of what you want? If his slugging percent goes up, isn't that what you want out of the three spot?

 

In addition to jokin's comments, I would add that even if you set aside what 'type' of hitter a player is, the fact of the matter is that Gardenhire has a loooong history of wasting outs by usually placing one of the lineup's worst hitters in the two spot. So the argument isn't as much 'Mauer 2nd vs. Mauer 3rd', it's 'Mauer 2nd vs. crap hitter 2nd'. And the answer is 'Mauer 2nd'.

[Kwak]

In addition to jokin's comments, I would add that even if you set aside what 'type' of hitter a player is, the fact of the matter is that Gardenhire has a loooong history of wasting outs by usually placing one of the lineup's worst hitter in the two spot. So the argument isn't as much 'Mauer 2nd vs. Mauer 3rd', it's 'Mauer 2nd vs. crap hitter 2nd'. And the answer is 'Mauer 2nd'.

 

Speaking of wasting outs and Gardenhire his incessant use of SF bunts fits that to a "T".

[The Wise One]

So if his obp goes down in the 2 spot, isn't that the oposite of what you want? If his slugging percent goes up, isn't that what you want out of the three spot?

 

Carew was a leadoff hitter. So any comparison between the two is sort of useless as a 2 versus three slot argument for Mauer. Carew could steal a base, too.

 

I believe the unenlightened Cardinals and Giants have wone more World Series lately than have the enlightend AL East. The AL East has not had a stranglehold on going to the World Series. If making the playoffs is good enough then there is no need to discuss how Gardenhire manages, only that he never has the players. Specifically the pitchers. Timely hitting and pitching got the Giants and the Cards what they got.

[cmathewson]

I believe the unenlightened Cardinals and Giants have wone more World Series lately than have the enlightend AL East. The AL East has not had a stranglehold on going to the World Series. If making the playoffs is good enough then there is no need to discuss how Gardenhire manages, only that he never has the players. Specifically the pitchers. Timely hitting and pitching got the Giants and the Cards what they got.

 

Not to burst your bubble, but the Angels, Rangers and A's all use the best OBP guys at the top of the order. Since you can't really count on timely hitting, you have to play the odds. The odds say, put the best OBP guys at the top of the order. If you need to put a play on, those are the guys who are best at doing it. But you only need to put a play on in the #2 hole at most half the time. The other half, you need the guy who will get on base.

[jokin]

I believe the unenlightened Cardinals and Giants have wone more World Series lately than have the enlightend AL East. The AL East has not had a stranglehold on going to the World Series. If making the playoffs is good enough then there is no need to discuss how Gardenhire manages, only that he never has the players. Specifically the pitchers. Timely hitting and pitching got the Giants and the Cards what they got.

 

St Louis Cardinals team performance at the #2 slot:

 

2012: 299/369/466/835

 

There is an obvious difference between the two leagues at the bottom of the order, so the comparisons can not be deemed equivalent. And of course, you veered the argument off the tracks, that was not the point being made, higher potential efficiencies in run production was the point.

 

Additionally, the "quest for OPS", by adjusting the better overall hitters ordinally higher in the batting order is most certainly not the magic bullet that guarantees World Series success. Because of the expense and risk and time involved in assembling scarce pitching talent, it is a much less expensive way of incrementally improving chances in the interim of W-L success.

 

Certainly, the element of luck (getting hot and "timely" at the right time) greatly helped the Twins in 1987, the Cards in 2011 and the Giants in 2012. Most importantly, pitching still is (at least) 70% of the game, witness the Giants success in 2010- with their league best K%, ERA and OBA and nearly best WHIP- and going back to their "timely" luck in 2012- they sported a near-league-best SP BABIP, helping to defy their Pythagorean projection which was only 88-74 (and Rod Carew was not a leadoff hitter for the vast majority of his career.)

[Aaron Cross]

And give him less opportunities to drive in runs when he is our best hitter with RISP?

Because he's such a great rbi guy, right? Flares to the left fielder who's playing shallow generally don't score a runner from 2nd base. All they do is pad his batting average with RISP.

[Aaron Cross]

How did he mishandle Santana? Start him in game one of every series? Pull him after 5 innings on short rest when Santana told him he was out of gas?

 

Also, Balfour was replaced by Rincon. Had Balfour stayed in it would have been his first outing of three innings that season. Is that something you want to start doing in the playoffs? And Rincon had been lights out all year. This is the ultimate hindsight whine.

 

I would expect 8 innings or more out of my ace in an elimination game. I don't care if he only had three days rest. All that goes out the window in the postseason. That's what an ace does. Seems to me a couple guys named Viola and Morris did pretty good on three days rest in some pretty big postseason games.

[Aaron Cross]

I challenge the concept that a division title is ever meaningless. And I indicated I was not happy with his playoff record, although I think "abysmal playoff futility of historic proportions" is the kind of rhetoric that detracts from your argument rather than supplements it. It led me to disregard the rest of your post.

Few if any managers have a worse playoff record. "Historic proportions" is an accurate description.

[10PagesOfClearBlueSky]

I would expect 8 innings or more out of my ace in an elimination game. I don't care if he only had three days rest. All that goes out the window in the postseason. That's what an ace does. Seems to me a couple guys named Viola and Morris did pretty good on three days rest in some pretty big postseason games.

 

Viola and Morris.... Boy, how much do you think we'd have to pay to get them signed up for 2013?

[Aaron Cross]

Viola had a pretty amazing run in 1987 and 1988.

[10PagesOfClearBlueSky]

Viola had a pretty amazing run in 1987 and 1988.

 

 

God.... I would gladly pay out of my own pocket for some '87 Sweet Music right now.

[Aaron Cross]

It's a shame the way Viola's Twins career ended. Wish he could have been a Twin for life. Then again, you can't hardly argue with getting Tapani and Aguilera in that trade.

[cmathewson]

It's a shame the way Viola's Twins career ended. Wish he could have been a Twin for life. Then again, you can't hardly argue with getting Tapani and Aguilera in that trade.

 

Not to mention Tim Drummond and Jack Savage. JK

[Aaron Cross]

Don't forget David West and his World Series ERA of "infinity"!

[CDog]

Speaking of wasting outs and Gardenhire his incessant use of SF bunts fits that to a "T".

 

Interesting that the incessant use of SF bunts has landed the Twins in the bottom third for Sacrifice Hits since Gardenhire became manager, only being above the bottom third twice for a season (and never in the top half) and this despite being in the top third for OBP and 2nd in Singles over this stretch. I think instead of "incessant" you meant "rare."

 

I also wonder why so many people can find the one thing they're looking for in a quote ("OMG, he said 'bunt'!!!") and ignore the multiple times it's come up in the media where Gardenhire has had to explain to a newer player that sac-bunting early in the game wasn't what "we" do here (almost certain it was written about Orlando Hudson and Nishioka very shortly after their respective arrivals...I'll go out on a limb there have been plenty of other times that weren't reported).

 

Carry on.

[ashbury]

Don't forget David West and his World Series ERA of "infinity"!

 

I had just forgotten, particularly the Braves' fans chant of "briiiing... in David West", and now you go and remind me.