25-man roster set

[Kwak]

LOL, the mythical legend of ol' Drew, working miracles with pitchers. Just seeing Drew behind that mask is enough to inspire confidence in any pitcher on the mound.

 

No, but seriously, do you have any data to back up this claim that Butera is some greek god at "working with pitchers"?

Because WAR takes both offense and defense (and baserunning) into account, and Butera is a negative WAR player.

 

I rate that right behind "pitch framing" for red herring of the off season.

[Mr. Brooks]

I'm not a hardcore stats geek. I have no idea how WAR is calculated, so I'm not even going to attempt to make any argument against it. I don't know which stats to look at to best analyze his defensive abilities alone, since a lot of the traditional stats like Assists, Put-outs, and errors are not really going to give much insight into a player's catching ability.

 

Most of what I have to say about Butera is what I have personally witnessed, and what I have heard people talk about. I personally saw him catch a lot over the last two years, and it seemed like most of the time our pitchers were very comfortable with him. There didn't seem to be many passed balls, not many guys stealing on him, not too much confusion between the pitcher and catcher. Based on my personal observations, purely in terms of defensive ability, I think Butera is a far better catcher than Doumit.

 

I know his bat sucks, and this was a very big issue in 2011 (when he caught nearly twice as many games as Mauer), but that was also a year where we only had 4 guys hit over .280 for the season, and two of those were Parmelee (21 games) and Dinkelman (23 games).

 

If you look at his stats from 2010 and 2012, where he was used as a backup and not as our main catcher, his defensive value seems to balance out his offensive struggles much better (as far as I can tell from the advanced stats. Again, don't fully understand them)

 

It seems like all our Italian guys may fall into the Punto role... great guys in a backup role, but inspiring fan outrage when put into a starting role.

 

I'm not saying I have a problem with him being in the organization, I think some might be misinterpreting my attitude about him.

I'm simply saying it's no big loss if a team were to claim him.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Butera was shown to be a negative value catcher at framing pitches.

 

Shush. Stop that. We all know Butera is teh bestest catcher in the whole wide world.

 

After all, something has to offset that historically bad bat.

 

(for the record, I'm not claiming Butera is a bad catcher... I actually think he's quite good... but it would take a legendary glove to offset his offensive deficiencies)

[IdahoPilgrim]

Wow! I should have known when I started this thread that it would turn into a "flame Butera" thread.

 

My bad.

[Mr. Brooks]

Wow! I should have known when I started this thread that it would turn into a "flame Butera" thread.

 

My bad.

 

For the record, I wasnt intending to "flame" Butera.

All I said was, why are we so concerned about losing him? And was then bombarded by people telling me how great he is, and how our organization couldn't handle losing a player like him.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Wow! I should have known when I started this thread that it would turn into a "flame Butera" thread.

 

My bad.

 

I'm not flaming Butera, I'm just acknowledging that overall, he's not a very good MLB player. He's just fine in AAA to be called up in a pinch but anything more than that, not so much.

 

If the rest of the team is good, I don't even mind him being the 25th man on the bench. I don't think it's a terribly smart move but I don't care about the 25th man much, period.

[IdahoPilgrim]

I'm not flaming Butera, I'm just acknowledging that overall, he's not a very good MLB player. He's just fine in AAA to be called up in a pinch but anything more than that, not so much.

 

If the rest of the team is good, I don't even mind him being the 25th man on the bench. I don't think it's a terribly smart move but I don't care about the 25th man much, period.

 

I wasn't referring specifically to you - yours just happened to be the last post when I got back tonight and revisited the thread.

 

I just still get surprised at the amount of passion people have about Butera, one way or another. It's is if he's a lightning rod that draws attention. Personally I don't think his presence on the roster (25-man or 40-man) or otherwise deserve the amount of space it often gets in these forums. Just my opinion.

[IdahoPilgrim]

For the record, I wasnt intending to "flame" Butera.

All I said was, why are we so concerned about losing him? And was then bombarded by people telling me how great he is, and how our organization couldn't handle losing a player like him.

 

If I was specifically responding to you, I would have quoted you like I do here. Relax! Enjoy life!

[old nurse]

I'm not the one making the claim that Butera is great at working with pitchers, why do I have to do the research? Typically the burden of proof is on the person making the claim.

 

There are far too many variables to suggest that pitcher ERA is an accurate reflection of a catchers ability.

You can do the research to further your claims about Butera. You are the one claiming he doesn't belong on a major league roster. If you want to claim Hermann would be better at playing 40 games a year than Butera than it is on you to provide other than being better at batting that Hermann would be a better catcher.

My responses are not so much as support for Butera as it is the notion that Hermann is anywhere near ready is not a good idea.

[DaveW]

Oh, yay, arguments using solely WAR as the only stat/criteria used. What could possibly be wrong with that logic.

 

Also as far as Butera vs Burnett goes, at least Butera fills in at a position the Twins are currently very very shallow in, I have hopes for hermanamnamnamnamnanan as well but he isn't ready and continues to need every day at bats, if Doumit/Mauer goes down for a few days having Butera on the roster isn't going to kill anyone, on the opposite side of things, if there is one thing the Twins do have an abudnace over (other then high upside CF) is relief arms who may be capable. Burnett had his chance, and honestly, within 3 months would have been ridiculously far down on the Twins depth chart regardless.

[Mr. Brooks]

You can do the research to further your claims about Butera. You are the one claiming he doesn't belong on a major league roster. If you want to claim Hermann would be better at playing 40 games a year than Butera than it is on you to provide other than being better at batting that Hermann would be a better catcher.

My responses are not so much as support for Butera as it is the notion that Hermann is anywhere near ready is not a good idea.

 

I made neither claim.

 

I said that it's no big loss if someone were to claim him, NEVER said he didn't belong.

I said Hermann could come up in an emergency, and not be any worse, never said he was better right now.

[Mr. Brooks]

Oh, yay, arguments using solely WAR as the only stat/criteria used. What could possibly be wrong with that logic.

 

Also as far as Butera vs Burnett goes, at least Butera fills in at a position the Twins are currently very very shallow in, I have hopes for hermanamnamnamnamnanan as well but he isn't ready and continues to need every day at bats, if Doumit/Mauer goes down for a few days having Butera on the roster isn't going to kill anyone, on the opposite side of things, if there is one thing the Twins do have an abudnace over (other then high upside CF) is relief arms who may be capable. Burnett had his chance, and honestly, within 3 months would have been ridiculously far down on the Twins depth chart regardless.

 

I agree with all of that.

Losing Burnett is no big loss, but neither would be losing Butera.

That is all I said, some people are making that statement out to be more than it is.

 

And Butera is never coming up "for a few days". Once he comes up, he stays. That is not speculation, there is evidence of that.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Wait I missed something, did Butera make the 25 man roster? This thread has hit 3 pages of angst about a catcher who will be making 750k in AAA. I'll be really surprised if he's offered arbitration this offseason as his salary will likely double, and quite frankly I don't get the fascination with Herman, nor is he ready. I'm fine with Drew in AAA, and I doubt Burnet will be an org regret. He put up some sick numbers in the minors a few years back and never did anything since (including in AAA). The guy I think this org will regret is when Slama leaves as a minor league FA and ends up with a team like Tampa Bay.

[IdahoPilgrim]

The guy I think this org will regret is when Slama leaves as a minor league FA and ends up with a team like Tampa Bay.

 

At the risk of taking this thread into an entirely different hot-button issue, why do you think they will regret losing Slama? I know he has had great minor league numbers, but he was mostly ineffective in the two major league stints he had, and he did absolutely nothing this spring to show it would be any different the next time. If I had to choose which was the most likely scenario between

A) Slama becomes a free agent, goes somewhere else, and becomes a staple of a major league bullpen, and

Slama becomes a free agent, goes somewhere else, and never successfully makes the transition to the big leagues and ends his career as a (very successful) minor league pitcher,

 

I'd have to put my money on B.

[jokin]

 

Also as far as Butera vs Burnett goes, at least Butera fills in at a position the Twins are currently very very shallow in...

 

Not to resume rubbing salt in old wounds from past battles, but you called for my banning (and other colorful adjectives, as well), when I pointed out this very thing, ie, the Twins extreme lack of quality depth at the position and seeming indifference at improving the situation at a level at least one step above the likes of Eric Fryer. To reiterate, Mauer is going to need a new position at some point and Doumit won't be around much longer, they have to do something better than the current, status quo (lack of) depth chart.

[Mr. Brooks]

At the risk of taking this thread into an entirely different hot-button issue, why do you think they will regret losing Slama? I know he has had great minor league numbers, but he was mostly ineffective in the two major league stints he had, and he did absolutely nothing this spring to show it would be any different the next time. If I had to choose which was the most likely scenario between

A) Slama becomes a free agent, goes somewhere else, and becomes a staple of a major league bullpen, and

Slama becomes a free agent, goes somewhere else, and never successfully makes the transition to the big leagues and ends his career as a (very successful) minor league pitcher,

 

I'd have to put my money on B.

 

Slama has a grand total of 7 MLB innings pitched. That is far too small of a sample size to glean anything from.

[Guest USAFChief]

Don't want to get too caught up in this argument, but just thought I'd point something out: using WAR to define a catcher's value is even more problematic for catchers than it is for other position players. fWAR, for example, uses UZR defensive metrics. The problem? There is no UZR data for catchers. Basically, they've just decided it's too hard to rate a catcher, and they use only stolen base data and passed ball data to arrive at a catcher's defensive "worth" rather than trying to use pbp data. If you're familiar at all with me, you know I consider UZR (and by extension, WAR) to be basically useless, but that's not my point here. Even if you love WAR, it would seem to me it's dangerous in the extreme to put much stock in the numbers for catchers.

[Mr. Brooks]

Don't want to get too caught up in this argument, but just thought I'd point something out: using WAR to define a catcher's value is even more problematic for catchers than it is for other position players. fWAR, for example, uses UZR defensive metrics. The problem? There is no UZR data for catchers. Basically, they've just decided it's too hard to rate a catcher, and they use only stolen base data and passed ball data to arrive at a catcher's defensive "worth" rather than trying to use pbp data. If you're familiar at all with me, you know I consider UZR (and by extension, WAR) to be basically useless, but that's not my point here. Even if you love WAR, it would seem to me it's dangerous in the extreme to put much stock in the numbers for catchers.

 

I agree.

Catcher defense is tough to put a value on.

However, the 2 primary areas that defensive WAR looks at for catcher, as you point out, are baserunning and passed balls, which are Butera's biggest strengths.

Based on that, IMO, WAR gives Butera the benefit of the doubt. If anything, his actual value is even less than his WAR would suggest.

[Guest USAFChief]

I agree.

Catcher defense is tough to put a value on.

However, the 2 primary areas that defensive WAR looks at for catcher, as you point out, are baserunning and passed balls, which are Butera's biggest strengths.

Based on that, IMO, WAR gives Butera the benefit of the doubt. If anything, his actual value is even less than his WAR would suggest.

Hadn't thought of that, and that's a good point. BTW, in case there's any doubt about my position on this, Butera on the roster as a 3rd catcher makes me want to poke my eyes out.

[jokin]

I agree.

Catcher defense is tough to put a value on.

However, the 2 primary areas that defensive WAR looks at for catcher, as you point out, are baserunning and passed balls, which are Butera's biggest strengths.

Based on that, IMO, WAR gives Butera the benefit of the doubt. If anything, his actual value is even less than his WAR would suggest.

 

Even given the murky nature of WAR for catchers, Butera had a terrible CS rate (23%), virtually the same as Doumit's (21%), but significantly better than Mauer's (14%).

 

In passed balls, Butera had 4 in 292 innings, Doumit 2 in 492 and Mauer 1 in 628.

 

Time for the mythologists to begin the spinning of Butera's alleged defensive prowess, I can't see how WAR gives Butera the benefit of the doubt, at least for 2012, anyway.

[cmathewson]

Both Burnett and Butera are below replacement level. I wouldn't be surprised if Butera is traded when they need to make room on the 40 man for Deduno. I say that because it doesn't make sense to DFA him if someone will give us something for him. And, according to Rosenthal, several teams have expressed interest.

 

I don't think the Twins have depth problems at the position. Hermann is a solid option as a third catcher/spare outfielder/bench bat. The only reason they sent him out early was to get him more at bats. Fryer is probably better than Rivera was last year. And Rohlfing has shown comparable versatility to Hermann. We're talking about maybe 120 PAs over the course of a season. That's not going to be the difference maker in any season.

[Mr. Brooks]

Both Burnett and Butera are below replacement level. I wouldn't be surprised if Butera is traded when they need to make room on the 40 man for Deduno. I say that because it doesn't make sense to DFA him if someone will give us something for him. And, according to Rosenthal, several teams have expressed interest.

 

I don't think the Twins have depth problems at the position. Hermann is a solid option as a third catcher/spare outfielder/bench bat. The only reason they sent him out early was to get him more at bats. Fryer is probably better than Rivera was last year. And Rohlfing has shown comparable versatility to Hermann. We're talking about maybe 120 PAs over the course of a season. That's not going to be the difference maker in any season.

 

Not to nitpick, but Burnett is exactly at replacement level (fangraphs) or slightly above (BBR).

[jokin]

 

I don't think the Twins have depth problems at the position. Hermann is a solid option as a third catcher/spare outfielder/bench bat. The only reason they sent him out early was to get him more at bats. Fryer is probably better than Rivera was last year. And Rohlfing has shown comparable versatility to Hermann. We're talking about maybe 120 PAs over the course of a season. That's not going to be the difference maker in any season.

 

"Solid"? I gotta think the Twins are banking on Herrmann to have a breakthrough season, get plenty of AAA experience, and in the process, look less lost than he did last September and this spring before they move him up again. He certainly won't make any improvements rotting on the bench at the major league level.

[Kwak]

I wouldn't be surprised to read later this season that Doumit is traded and Butera has been promoted to the alternate Catcher for the Twins.

[Mr. Brooks]

I wouldn't be surprised to read later this season that Doumit is traded and Butera has been promoted to the alternate Catcher for the Twins.

 

Who would be?

[The Wise One]

Gawd. Three pages on Burnett and mostly Butera. Some people must need the regular season to start. The alternative idea could get one banned

[The Wise One]

"Solid"? I gotta think the Twins are banking on Herrmann to have a breakthrough season, get plenty of AAA experience, and in the process, look less lost than he did last September and this spring before they move him up again. He certainly won't make any improvements rotting on the bench at the major league level.

 

I think someone earlier was shredded for passing an opinion on Hermann based on the last year's performance in the majors.

Leviathan must like you.

[jokin]

I think someone earlier was shredded for passing an opinion on Hermann based on the last year's performance in the majors.

Leviathan must like you.

 

So you're arguing the opposite?- that Hermann is "solidly" ready to contribute at the major league level? If true, please cite your evidence that this is, in fact the case.

[diehardtwinsfan]

At the risk of taking this thread into an entirely different hot-button issue, why do you think they will regret losing Slama? I know he has had great minor league numbers, but he was mostly ineffective in the two major league stints he had, and he did absolutely nothing this spring to show it would be any different the next time. If I had to choose which was the most likely scenario between

A) Slama becomes a free agent, goes somewhere else, and becomes a staple of a major league bullpen, and

Slama becomes a free agent, goes somewhere else, and never successfully makes the transition to the big leagues and ends his career as a (very successful) minor league pitcher,

 

I'd have to put my money on B.

 

Slama had 4 2/3 innings in 2010 and 2 1/3 inning in 2011. Are you seriously basing your conclusion on a grand total of 7 innings over 2 seasons? Given the state of the bullpen the last two years and the state of the Twins org during that same time frame, Slama should have been given every opportuntity to earn a spot, especially over the likes of Jeff Gray. I'm not going to pretend that he's the next Joe Nathan or anything like that, but the one thing he has done is put up gaudy stats at every stop, and has had no problems getting strike outs, only to get crapped on by this organization.

 

He's one of the few people in the high minors that has a chance to be a good late inning reliever. Why he has not gotten an extended trial, especially by a terrible team is beyond me.

[jokin]

 

He's one of the few people in the high minors that has a chance to be a good late inning reliever. Why he has not gotten an extended trial, especially by a terrible team is beyond me.

 

I hold no illusions about Slama's possibilites for success (there is certainly only one way to find out!), but I do know that the Twins fall in love with characteristics that certain guys possess- like Burnett and Gray- and keep forcing the issue in the face of all the evidence- until they finally admit defeat. It's now gotten to the point that if Slama were to be successful on a sustained call-up, it would mean even more embarrassment for the organization that is on record belittling his minor league performance.