Article: How Do You Feel About This Year's Roster?

[Thrylos]

Phil Mackey has an interesting analysis over at ESPN 1500 and he is looking at about 80 wins based on RS and RA using sums of individual players' projections.

 

I started cranking some numbers differently looking in a few other things including sums of games with =< 2 runs allowed in 2012 for Pavano+Marquis+Liriano+Blackburn vs Worley+Correia+Pelfrey+Harden (the last 2 in 2011) and some RAR- and WAR- based stuff and I am probably more optimistic that Phil at this point. Before Spring training started I was thinking potentially 86 wins or so, now I think that potentially even a couple more. Harden's health will be what makes and breaks this club.

 

Another thing one needs to look at is how many different SS/2B combinations were used last season.... the more the worse in things like turning double plays, getting forced outs at second, covering second base etc. Looks that there is a commitment for Florimon and Dozier. If they stick with them and they perform, the infield D will be much better than 2012.

[Mr. Brooks]

Phil Mackey has an interesting analysis over at ESPN 1500 and he is looking at about 80 wins based on RS and RA using sums of individual players' projections.

 

I started cranking some numbers differently looking in a few other things including sums of games with =< 2 runs allowed in 2012 for Pavano+Marquis+Liriano+Blackburn vs Worley+Correia+Pelfrey+Harden (the last 2 in 2011) and some RAR- and WAR- based stuff and I am probably more optimistic that Phil at this point. Before Spring training started I was thinking potentially 86 wins or so, now I think that potentially even a couple more. Harden's health will be what makes and breaks this club.

 

Another thing one needs to look at is how many different SS/2B combinations were used last season.... the more the worse in things like turning double plays, getting forced outs at second, covering second base etc. Looks that there is a commitment for Florimon and Dozier. If they stick with them and they perform, the infield D will be much better than 2012.

 

Interesting.

[The Wise One]

No, I said BRAUN was the worst I had ever seen.

 

here's the quote 'though not as badly as Braun at 3B. Never seen a 3B worse than him on defense.'

 

Braun's career tz at 3B was -9. That should make Braun actually not the worse 3B you ever saw, just merely one of the poorer ones.

[Kobs]

They are going to need a lot of luck from the BABIP gods to be anything but putrid.

[ThePuck]

Braun's career tz at 3B was -9. That should make Braun actually not the worse 3B you ever saw, just merely one of the poorer ones.

 

He had a -42.5 UZR/150 at 3B in his rookie year. -32 runs saved. He had a revised zone rating (RZR) of .564. Think about those numbers a little bit.

 

Oh, and for those who care about fielding percentage...his started with an 8. Between 2002-2012, no regular regardless of position, posted a lower fielding percentage than Braun did in 2007.

 

Braun finished with a -32 DRS. If we shift from his 945 innings to DRS per 1,000 innings, then between 2002-2012, no regular, regardless of position, posted a lower DRS/1000 than Braun did in 2007.

 

Braun finished with a -28 UZR. If we shift to UZR per 1,000 innings, then between 2002-2012, three regulars posted a lower UZR/1000 than Braun did in 2007. One was Bernie Williams in 2004. One was Bernie Williams in 2005. And one was Brad Hawpe in 2008, trying to man the unusually large Coors Field outfield. Hawpe’s defensive numbers might have park-factor issues, and his UZR/1000 was just 1.4 runs worse than Braun’s.

 

Baseball-Reference.com lists the five worst fielding seasons since 1969:

 

1. Brad Hawpe (RF), Rockies, 2008: -41

2. Ryan Braun (3B), Brewers, 2007: -35

3. Jason Bay (LF), Pirates-Red Sox, 2008: -35

4. Dante Bichette (LF), Rockies, 1999: -34

5. Chris Gomez (SS), Padres, 1997: -33

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/13738/mark-reynolds-worst-defensive-year-ever

 

 

 

Yes, he's the worst regular 3B I've EVER seen play.

[The Wise One]

He had a -42.5 UZR/150 at 3B in his rookie year. -32 runs saved. He had a revised zone rating (RZR) of .564. Think about those numbers a little bit.

 

Oh, and for those who care about fielding percentage...his started with an 8. Between 2002-2012, no regular regardless of position, posted a lower fielding percentage than Braun did in 2007.

 

Braun finished with a -32 DRS. If we shift from his 945 innings to DRS per 1,000 innings, then between 2002-2012, no regular, regardless of position, posted a lower DRS/1000 than Braun did in 2007.

 

Braun finished with a -28 UZR. If we shift to UZR per 1,000 innings, then between 2002-2012, three regulars posted a lower UZR/1000 than Braun did in 2007. One was Bernie Williams in 2004. One was Bernie Williams in 2005. And one was Brad Hawpe in 2008, trying to man the unusually large Coors Field outfield. Hawpe’s defensive numbers might have park-factor issues, and his UZR/1000 was just 1.4 runs worse than Braun’s.

 

Yes, he's the worst regular 3B I've EVER seen play.

 

Steve Braun played in the 1970's. If Braun had that bad of UZR in 2007 it was because 59 year olds shouldn't be playing 3b.

[ThePuck]

Steve Braun played in the 1970's. If Braun had that bad of UZR in 2007 it was because 59 year olds shouldn't be playing 3b.

 

Steve Braun?

[TheLeviathan]

Back to the original question - queasy. Like when you pull up to Taco Bell and you're starving and you just can't wait to dig in. And then after you digest the reality of that appetizing meal.....

 

Well, I think we all know how that ends. That's my analogy, but I am salivating for the meal, even knowing the reality.

[PseudoSABR]

Back to the original question - queasy. Like when you pull up to Taco Bell and you're starving and you just can't wait to dig in. And then after you digest the reality of that appetizing meal.....

 

Well, I think we all know how that ends. That's my analogy, but I am salivating for the meal, even knowing the reality.

How drunk am I, in this analogy?

[cmathewson]

Braun's career tz at 3B was -9. That should make Braun actually not the worse 3B you ever saw, just merely one of the poorer ones.

 

We've had three worse 3Bs in Twins unis in the last decade: Tony Batista, Mike Lamb and Brian Buscher.

[jokin]

Steve Braun?

 

He's not called the wise one for nuthin...

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

How do I feel? One negative (or at best, a flyer) and one positive:

 

The Negative: Ron Gardenhire went on record early this spring, asking for "more pop off the bench." Gardenhire: I want more pop off the bench | StarTribune.com

 

Answer: Wilkin Ramirez, with 37 mlb at-bats--11 in 2009, and 26 in 2012. Do those numbers project confidence in the pinch? Or is TR rolling the dice by gambling on a 10 year minor league veteran who has enjoyed a sip of coffee in the majors?

 

The positive: I think the defense up the middle will improve, if Dozier and Florimon can bring their magic north. I like what I hear/see/read about Hicks' glove and arm, even more than his bat, plate discipline, and running game. I see other ticks of improvement from Mauer--and, hold on--Plouffe.

 

The offense will produce. The pitching HAS to support 10-15 more wins over last year's debacle. I think we'll have a reasonable shot at .500 ball, with intangibles making the difference between .450 (73 wins) and .550 (89 wins). The former is far more likely--the latter will require career years from three or four key leaders, and solid production from most everyone else. Hope Springs Eternal.

[TheLeviathan]

How drunk am I, in this analogy?

 

Significantly. I would suggest keeping a similar stupor for the next, oh, 160-some-odd games as well. It'll help with the digestion.

[The Wise One]

Uh Puck. Ryan Braun may be worse than Steve Braun. I don't know why I would think you would would have watched Steve Braun play.

[The Wise One]

In discussing Twin's players and bad 3b players Steve fit the bill. Sorry you appear to know a little less about the Twins than I thought.

[ThePuck]

In discussing Twin's players and bad 3b players Steve fit the bill. Sorry you appear to know a little less about the Twins than I thought.

 

Who are you talking to?

[ThePuck]

Uh Puck. Ryan Braun may be worse than Steve Braun. I don't know why I would think you would would have watched Steve Braun play.

 

You knew who I meant...but it was funny

[ashbury]

Harden's health will be what makes and breaks this club.

 

If this is true, I think as GM I would have spent more on somebody else and not staked all hopes on a rehab candidate more likely to "break" than "make".

 

However I doubt anything ever comes down to something as simple as that, except for a very elite player in his prime.

[The Wise One]

You knew who I meant...but it was funny

This is a Twins board, thought you were talking about the Twins, Being you didn't get Steve Braun right away I figure you know a little less about the Twins than I thought. And no I didn't even think of Ryan Braun. When discussing bad Twins third basemen Braun came to my mind. Why do you think they moved him to lf?

[ThePuck]

This is a Twins board, thought you were talking about the Twins, Being you didn't get Steve Braun right away I figure you know a little less about the Twins than I thought. And no I didn't even think of Ryan Braun. When discussing bad Twins third basemen Braun came to my mind. Why do you think they moved him to lf?

 

The original discussion I was having about defense with MrBrooks wasn't specific to the Twins. I was talking about how bad Plouffe was at 3B, but I said he isn't as bad as Braun was. You misread it.

 

As to why I asked 'Steve Braun?' I wasn't at a loss as to who he was, I wondering why in God's name you brought him up since it wasn't him I was talking about...you know, since I wasn't being specific to Twins 3Bs but 3Bs in general. I guess since you didn't think of Ryan Braun when I said Braun was the worst 3B I ever saw, you know less about baseball than one would have thought...

 

 

Oh, and of course, no one talks about anyone but Twins in here.

[Kwak]

As I recall Harmon played 3B for 1 year--I'm guessing was likely the worst regular (for the year) 3B the Twins ever had.

[LastOnePicked]

There seem to be some very positive, competitive players on the team. I enjoyed Mike Bernadino's stories about Ramirez and Escobar, and Darin Mastroianni is quickly becoming my favorite Gladdenesque player. Was also very pleased to see Pressly win a spot here. Of course, pulling for Hicks in a big way. I've got plenty of guys to cheer for -- I hope that Gardy will let them show a little spit, fire and even chrome.

[Steve Penz]

I feel they will take last but this will be an improved year. This is just from the hip...offense and defense. And, i am including call ups and shifts that I believe will happen due to trades. Lf..same. Cf..same def and better offense. Rf worse defense but better offense. 3b..better defense and better offense due to improved discipline. Ss..same. 2b.. Better offense and same defense. 1b same defense and improved offense. Catcher..same.

 

Pitching is a wild card.

 

I dont feel they will be as bad to start as last yeat.

 

74 wins...last place.

[Guest USAFChief]

"(Rich) Harden's health will be what makes and breaks this club." This is a bit, right?

[beckmt]

My number of Twins wins is 72, and I may be optimistic. I is hard to expect that KC and Cleveland will be as bad as last year. Chicago will probably be worse, but the Tigers will be better, all in all 72 games or so against competition that will be better. AL West will be worse, but AL East will be better than last year as both Toronto, Tampa Bay and Boston have better records. Hope I'm wrong, but we shall see. At least the Twins should be more watchable than last year as we probably see 5-6 more talented minor league prospects by the end of the year.

[jun]

I don't think Hendriks is ready though, he just does not have major league stuff.

[Mr. Brooks]

67-95.

[stringer bell]

I'll put the wins at 72-75. Cleveland and KC will be better, Chicago could be better and Detroit also figures to be improved. That said, the Twins should have some karma going their way. I posted in another thread that improvement in some areas will make 2013 a successful season. There are five new regulars and if three establish themselves as major league regulars, that will be good. If Diamond and two others establish themselves as starting pitchers, that will meet expectations. If the Twins benefit from the last year of Morneau's contract, that would also be a success. The middle of the order will make the Twins more potent and new pitchers will improve the staff. How many that will be around in two years is the open question.

[Dave T]

How do you figure our defense will be better?

 

Hicks is great, but Hicks/Parmellee isn't an improvement over Span/Revere. Our middle IF is still bad. Our 3B is still bad.

No doubt Revere is a better RF than Parmelee. I was thinking of our defense up the middle. Last April's starting shortstop was Carroll, who wore down when playing every day. I think Florimon has more range than Carroll, and Dozier has been impressive at 2B. There have only been a handful of games televised, including tonight's game, but the middle infield has looked great.

[Mr. Brooks]

No doubt Revere is a better RF than Parmelee. I was thinking of our defense up the middle. Last April's starting shortstop was Carroll, who wore down when playing every day. I think Florimon has more range than Carroll, and Dozier has been impressive at 2B. There have only been a handful of games televised, including tonight's game, but the middle infield has looked great.

 

Among AL players who played at least 300 innings at SS last year, Carroll ranked 7th, with a 6.0 UZR/150, Florimon ranked 15th, with a negative 8.9 UZR/150, which was worse than Brian Dozier.

 

All we keep hearing about is how good of a defender Florimon CAN BE, but so far we havent seen it.