Article: Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher

[Nick Nelson]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1486-Position-Analysis-Starting-Pitcher

[cmathewson]

I wouldn't put Diamond's or Deduno's injuries in the same class with Baker's torn UCL or Pavano's bruised labrum. In the case of Diamond, we're talking bout a two-week stay on the DL, tops. Deduno should have a shorter layoff. By May, they'll both be 100%. You could not say that about Baker or Pavano last year.

[glunn]

Great article.

 

I am very hopeful that Worley, Correia and Pelfrey will be an upgrade compared with what Liriano, Baker and Pavano produced last year.

 

In 2012, Liriano had a BB/9 of 5 and an ERA of 5.31 in 100 IP. Baker was injured all season. Pavano had an ERA of 6.00 in 63 innings. This is not a high bar to exceed.

 

Also, it seems to me that the loss of the defense of Span and Revere will be largely offset by the presence of Hicks.

 

Finally, I think that it is at least possible that Blackburn will produce at a higher level than either Pavano or Liriano produced last year.

[mako83]

It these hold there Eras to around four we could break 70wins and give someone some trouble. I dont think anyone here can flame out as bad as marquis and blackburn did. Still believe Devries and Deduno are as mad as the rest of us about correria signing.

[tjsyam921]

Even if these guys don't produce a lot better than the group they're replacing. At least they're trying a different group this time.

[Han Joelo]

Scary that I'm asking this, but is there any word on how Blackburn looks this spring? Or is he hurt? I'm just surprised he hasn't been heard from at all.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Scary that I'm asking this, but is there any word on how Blackburn looks this spring? Or is he hurt? I'm just surprised he hasn't been heard from at all.

 

[video=youtube;1SUzcDUERLo]

[CDog]

Scary that I'm asking this, but is there any word on how Blackburn looks this spring? Or is he hurt? I'm just surprised he hasn't been heard from at all.

 

Injured. (I think coming off yet another surgery...)

[jay]

It's kinda weird when the five guys "lined up to step in" would be a better rotation than the five that are currently IN the rotation.

[70charger]

It's kinda weird when the five guys "lined up to step in" would be a better rotation than the five that are currently IN the rotation.

 

Save for Worley, I was kind of thinking the same thing. I'd love to see Hendriks figure it out, De Vries continue his (to me inexplicable) streak of solid pitching, Pelfrey recover in record time, and Correia actually be serviceable, but realistically guys like Gibson, Harden, and Diamond are probably just better.

 

Then again, that's a good problem to have. Talent pushing upwards from Rochester (regardless of how marginal some may think that talent is) is something we didn't have any of last year.

 

And in any case, improving on Marquis and Blackburn, as well as fringe-starter Liriano, hopelessly injured Pavano, and lost-season Baker really isn't that difficult. The "production" from our 2012 projected starting lineup was historically bad. We won't be good in 2013, but we won't be worse.

[70charger]

Actually, just out of curiosity, I did some back of the envelope math on our 5 projected starters going in to 2012: Liriano, Baker, Pavano, Blackburn, and Marquis.

 

In terms of expectations for an average starting 5 rotation, you'd be looking at something like a 4.50 ERA over 800-ish innings. (Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong - I didn't look up the averages.)

 

Our starting 5 gave us a 6.52 ERA over 296 innings.

 

This includes Baker, which may not be fair, but I know a lot of us were counting on him going into that year. Has there been a rotation that bad in recent memory? Where does it rank all-time?

[ashbury]

It these hold there Eras to around four we could break 70wins and give someone some trouble.

 

Who does a 75-win team give trouble to, except the GM and manager?

[TheLeviathan]

I think Nick's most apt comment was about this staff's floor. Yes, there are glimmers of hope. But my god, reading what we have at our disposal all in one place really reinforces how tenuous this groups hold is on being any better than last year. This could get really, really rough.

[Dave T]

Nah, don't look at it that way. This could be really, really rough in April. We'll be fine once the real starters show up.

[Ultima Ratio]

Doable goal for the starting rotation is to have a sub 5 ERA. That gets us into 70 wins area. A doable goal for most years should be a sub 4.5 ERA from the rotation, which helps get into the 80 wins area and a good pitching staff should aim for a sub 4 ERA (for the good to elite rotations) which helps get you into the 90 wins area (potentially-- of course on all these wins by an average or better offense).

 

Therefore, I'm just hoping for a sub 5 ERA from the rotation and a sub 4 ERA from the pen -- which could get us in 70s and maybe up to 80 wins area. I think the offense is capable of averaging 4.5 runs/game (was 4.33 in 2012), so as long as the pitching and defense allow runs against of sub 4.5 (runs allowed per game in 2012 was 5.14), we are playing .500 baseball (this is the pythagorean W/L stat right?) This is my hope, but will aim for 75 wins as an attainable goal.

[ashbury]

With a rotation of Worley, Worely, Wroely, Vance, and Vanimal, names I have seen bandied about here and elsewhere, the Twins have a chance of having pretty good starting pitching.

[Thegrin]

A .500 record is something to wish for in 2013. It means the rotation has some stability. It means the top of the order provides some runs. It means the middle infield fields the ball. It means the relief pitchers provide some relief. It means some fun for 2013 and some hope for 2014. I am so ready for this season to start.

[fairweather]

What the heck? Why not pretend these guys are better while we still can?

[TheLeviathan]

What the heck? Why not pretend these guys are better while we still can?

 

Even on paper it takes some real mental gymnastics to achieve optimism.