Final spots on the roster

[jorgenswest]

I realize I am only adding to the likely irrelevant discussion about who is on the opening day roster. A roster that will likely be different by two weeks into the season.

 

I start with these assumptions.

 

- All teams will carry at least 11 pitchers.

- All teams will carry a starter at every position as well as a backup catcher, middle infielder and outfielder. That is 11 position players.

 

22 players and the following options for the three spots.

 

- 12th pitcher

- 13th pitcher

- third catcher

- sixth infielder

- fifth outfielder

- bench bat only

 

The Twins poor starters will drive the need for the 12 pitcher.

 

Conceding the 12th pitcher, that leaves Wilkin Ramirez (or Brandon Boggs), Drew Butera and Eduardo Escobar (or Pedro Florimon) fighting for the two spots.

 

The case for Ramirez. I start assuming Mastroianni is the 4th OF. Ramirez doesn't play CF well enough. I think he can help this year in a platoon with Parmelee against left handed pitching. Ramirez was once a fair prospect. He is still relatively young. It might be a good match for him. Whoever he starts either Parmelee, Doumit, Morneau or Mauer will be on the bench and available to pinch hit.

 

The case for Butera. His defense is significantly better than Doumit's. He would be an asset to the young pitching staff. He would really be the back up catcher while Doumit fits in a role similar to Thome's

 

The case for Escobar. From a position stand point, it is hard to see a role and playing time for a second utility player. However, he has a good glove and is the youngest of the options. If Plouffe is not 100%, it may be necessary to keep a second utility infielder. Otherwise, it is hard to imagine a role. Is Florimon's glove clearly better than Escobar's? If not, he should be included in this discussion.

 

I think Ramirez in a platoon role and Butera's glove can contribute more to the team than carrying both Florimon and Escobar. I have more hope for Escobar long term. If his glove is on par with Florimon, I would send Florimon down.

 

 

... and then someone will get nicked up in the first week of the season and the platooning in RF will have to end when the Twins need to bring up that extra infielder.

 

This is not my attempt to predict what the Twins will do. Rather it is to start a discussion about what the Twins should do.

 

12th pitcher, platoon RF, backup catcher or additional utility infielder? Pick three.

[Physics Guy]

What I think I would like to happen (non-Pitchers):

Mauer, Morneau, Dozier, Florimon, Plouffe, Willigham, Hicks, Parmelee, Doumit, Carroll,Mastroianni, Ramirez, Colabello

 

Every position would have a competent backup and this would give Gardy more pop on the bench. Escobar gets to play every day and Butera is available in AAA if we need another C. I think with Swarzak and Diamond on DL, there is room to add the last two.

 

What I think Twins will do:

Mauer, Morneau, Dozier, Florimon, Plouffe, Willigham, Hicks, Parmelee, Doumit, Carroll, Mastroianni, Escobar, Ramirez

[Danchat]

I could see the Twins carrying 13 pitchers like they did last season. However, I would like to see the Twins have Mastroianni as the backup OF and Wilkin Ramirez as a backup bat. He has won me over in spring training. The Twins will carry Butera. I think he sucks but he'll be on the team. I want Carrol as the utility and Escobar can develop at AAA and come when the injury flurries start. So... 12th pitcher, C Butera, OF Ramirez

[greengoblinrulz]

dont even think its a discussion......its Butera & Escobar. Drew's spot on this team is as secure as Joe Mauer's & now that he's gotten a hit or 2 this spring, he's may start challenging Doumit for more time behing the plate as Ryan DH's. Escobar has been compared to Nick Punto by gardy.....nuff said (I actually like Nicky tho).

Pitching wise....injuries have opened it up a tad but for how long. With Diamond back on 12th of April, Swarzak not far behind & Wood iffy now....that's 3 on the DL who will put someone on the roster we may not have thought.

IMO, DeVries & Hendriks are 4/5 sealed & delivered. 7th reliever is up to Tyler Robertson to join Josh Roenicke & Ryan Pressley in a very iffy bullpen in the middle.

[jorgenswest]

Both are very poor options at catcher. Do you want the league bottom bat or the league bottom glove? Is it possible that the advantage Doumit clearly has in the four plate appearances he gets as the starting catcher is all given back on defense?

 

While Doumit could start on nearly anyone's fantasy team, Butera's defense might give the Twins a better chance to win.

[IdahoPilgrim]

I'm having difficulty seeing Ramirez make the team - you just don't need five outfielders. I think they'll use the 13th batter spot on a third catcher, and I'm guessing they'll go with 6 infielders, as Florimon/Escobar/Dozier/Carroll will all trade off and see time in the middle infield (especially if they are going to intentionally limit Carroll's plate appearances as some are suggesting).

[jorgenswest]

It only makes sense to have an extra corner outfielder in a platoon. Otherwise, there isn't enough playing time. Looking at Parmelee's splits over the last two years in the minors and majors, a platoon should be considered.

[stringer bell]

Escobar will go north, no question. That will give the Twins 5 players for three spots (2B, SS, 3B). Mauer, Doumit, Morneau, Willingham, Hicks, Parmelee, and Mastro brings us to 12 position players. The 13th player looks to me to be between Ramirez and Butera. Ramirez has done well, but (sadly) so has Drew. Clement hasn't hit that well, and really is only a first baseman. Butera is on the 40-man and Ramirez and Clement are not.

[spideyo]

Did anybody in the AL carry only 11 pitchers all year last year? It seems to me that 12 is the current norm, and much of the last two years the Twins have actually carried 13. I could be wrong though.

 

I think the bench will at least start off as Butera, Mastroianni, Escobar, Carroll. Plouffe is a little dinged up, Dozier hasn't played a regular season game at 2b, and Florimon still has to prove he deserves that starting job. Gardy is going to want options. Butera has actually hit well in the few games he's played in camp, and has a track record of working very well with our pitchers. Wouldn't be surprised to see him be Deduno's personal catcher.

 

Once Diamond and Swarzak are healthy, it wouldn't surprise me to see the Twins push to get down to 11 pitchers, so that they can keep Carroll and Escobar up, but still bring up either Ramirez or Colabello for some more punch. Unless they can run a 5-man bench though, the only reason we'll see a 5th OF up here is if Parmelee struggles in the field

[PseudoSABR]

.. Wilkin Ramirez, Brandon Boggs and Jeff Clement remain in contention for Minnesota's final roster spot.

AP.

[IdahoPilgrim]

If the theme of the season is to see what our youngsters can do, why would we platoon Parmelee? Don't we need to see if he can handle playing every day, against both lefties and righties? He's going to be our replacement for Morneau at 1st (assuming Morneau is traded or not re-signed); let's find out now if he can handle it. They tried to platoon him last year, and that didn't work out well.

[Twinsoholic]

I am sure that the Twins will carry 12 pitchers to start the season, so the 13 position players are likely not to include Butera. Here is my position player roster prediction:

 

C: Mauer

C: Doumit

1B: Morneau

2B: Dozier

3B: Plouffe

SS: Florimon

LF: Willingham

CF: Hicks

RF: Parmalee

UI: Carroll

UI: Escobar

OF: Mastriani

OF: Ramirez

 

If you keep Butera, then you have the same bench as last year. Gardy claims to want, rightly so, more power off of the bench. Ramirez provides that; plus, he can fill in as a DH some for Doumit as well as being a pinch-hitter and occasional starter for Parmalee against a tough left-handed starter.

 

If the Twins keep Butera, then they are sacrificing offensive potential for a guy who should be sitting on the bench if Mauer is going to be playing as much as he hopes.

[Willihammer]

I know it won't happen but I'd like to see them carry a 13th pitcher, Hernandez probably. So Gardy can micro manage the bullpen or just get his starters out before they face a lineup for a 3rd or 4th time if the situation gets critical. I feel like there's a lot of runs that could be saved that way. Plus if you look at pinch hitting, unless you're talking about Jim Thome, guys suffer a severe penalty. Someone who OPS's in the 800s as a starter will, in a PH role, OPS at or in some cases below the guys they are batting for. Look at the batting avg. and AB/HR stats for the last 3 years: 2012 MLB Team Batting Stats - Major League Baseball - ESPN

 

Then again, the Twins had a winning record last year when Butera started, so maybe that is the way to go.

[Top Gun]

It's so sad that Twins daily don't offer a fantasy baseball league.

[Mr. Brooks]

Both are very poor options at catcher. Do you want the league bottom bat or the league bottom glove? Is it possible that the advantage Doumit clearly has in the four plate appearances he gets as the starting catcher is all given back on defense?

 

While Doumit could start on nearly anyone's fantasy team, Butera's defense might give the Twins a better chance to win.

 

Considering Doumit was worth 9.6 wins above replacement during his time in Pittsburgh (I'm only counting his time in the NL because we are discussing his value as a C, not as a DH, correct?) over 7 seassons (avg 1.4 WAR/season), while Butera has a negative WAR during his time with the Twins, I'd say it is pretty clear that Doumit's bat more than overcomes Butera's defensive superiority.

 

There is simply no defense that is good enough to overcome a sub .500 OPS bat, at any position, on any team. And the minor leagues and retirement lines are full of gold glove caliber defenders who never learned how to hit. If that type of bat could be overcome by stellar defense, all those guys would be rich.

 

And, no Doumit would not make a good fantasy starter. In fact he wouldnt even be drafted in a typical 10 team mixed league, much less be starting for anyone. If Doumit is starting on your fantasy team, you are in big trouble.

[beckmt]

I also think Butera should start in Rochester. Probably will not however, but will see. Depends if Gardy gets his bench bat, which I feel the Twins need. Ramirez will be needed, as Parmalee will need platoon help against tough lefties. All these posters who are banking on Parmalee could be very disappointed. I am hoping for better, but do not think that he will fill the role, especially against lefties. My best guess is the Twins offer Morneau an extension by June and Parmalee will join Benson on his way out of the organization.

[jorgenswest]

Considering Doumit was worth 9.6 wins above replacement during his time in Pittsburgh (I'm only counting his time in the NL because we are discussing his value as a C, not as a DH, correct?) over 7 seassons (avg 1.4 WAR/season), while Butera has a negative WAR during his time with the Twins, I'd say it is pretty clear that Doumit's bat more than overcomes Butera's defensive superiority.

 

There is simply no defense that is good enough to overcome a sub .500 OPS bat, at any position, on any team. And the minor leagues and retirement lines are full of gold glove caliber defenders who never learned how to hit. If that type of bat could be overcome by stellar defense, all those guys would be rich.

 

And, no Doumit would not make a good fantasy starter. In fact he wouldnt even be drafted in a typical 10 team mixed league, much less be starting for anyone. If Doumit is starting on your fantasy team, you are in big trouble.

 

That WAR value does not factor in the studies since 2008 on Pitch f/x and pitch framing. Since 2011 several studies looking have shown Doumit to be a significant liability at catcher. Mike Fasts original study is linked below. Though the Twins and several on this board disregard the study and the several since, it shows that any offensive value he brings to the plate is negated by his inability to frame pitches.

 

Baseball Prospectus | Spinning Yarn: Removing the Mask Encore Presentation

[spideyo]

Ok, here's a question: If you are bringing a guy in solely to be a bench bat, why Ramirez over Colabello? Neither are on the 40 man currently, so you would have to kick someone off to make room for them.

 

If you ran into an injury situation, or a "guy is sucking and needs to get his head on straight in rochester" situation (which given our recent history will both probably happen frequently and simultaneously), you are stuck in a situation with Ramirez where you would need to pass him through waivers, whereas with Colabello you've got three full years you could be shuttling him back and forth no problem.

[Kwak]

There will be 13 pitchers--none of the starters can be "deemed reliable", nor have they been "stretched-out" (as they should have been) due to the excessive number of pitchers in ST that needed "evaluation" and the overall disappointing results from the expected rotation. If there aren't any "injuries" in the IF, it will be Butera as the 25th man. After all his ST has been solid and he was tendered a raise through arbitration. Drew is "in tight".

[Mr. Brooks]

That WAR value does not factor in the studies since 2008 on Pitch f/x and pitch framing. Since 2011 several studies looking have shown Doumit to be a significant liability at catcher. Mike Fasts original study is linked below. Though the Twins and several on this board disregard the study and the several since, it shows that any offensive value he brings to the plate is negated by his inability to frame pitches.

 

Baseball Prospectus | Spinning Yarn: Removing the Mask Encore Presentation

 

You mean the same study that also gives Butera a negative value at framing pitches?

[Mr. Brooks]

Ok, here's a question: If you are bringing a guy in solely to be a bench bat, why Ramirez over Colabello? Neither are on the 40 man currently, so you would have to kick someone off to make room for them.

 

If you ran into an injury situation, or a "guy is sucking and needs to get his head on straight in rochester" situation (which given our recent history will both probably happen frequently and simultaneously), you are stuck in a situation with Ramirez where you would need to pass him through waivers, whereas with Colabello you've got three full years you could be shuttling him back and forth no problem.

 

1)Because Ramirez probably has a better bat than Colabello.

Ramirez put up a higher OPS at AA, in stints as a 21yo, 22yo, 24yo and 26yo than Colabello did at AA as a 28 yo.

 

2)I could be wrong, but i'm pretty sure Ramirez has an option year remaining.

 

3)Even if he doesnt, they are both fringe MLB'ers, I doubt the risk of losing either of them is much of a concern when considering who to bring north.

[Oldgoat_MN]

The idea that Gardy will platoon Parmalee and someone else has little basis in history. Cuddyer crushed lefties while Kubel crushed righties. Cuddyer ALWAYS started if he was healthy, even though his stats against righties were quite poor. I just don't see it happening unless there has been a huge shift in how Gardy thinks. (OK, perhaps it was more about how Gardy's faith in Cuddy than anything else. IDK)

 

There will be significantly more games against NL opponents (that's this year, right?). We all have to get used to the idea that pitchers will sometimes wander up to the plate with a bat. Losing the DH for a part of one game, in the event of an injury to a catcher, would not be the end of the world. Nonetheless, I expect Butera to come north.

[Dilligaf69]

Looks like Butera is down to AAA and Ramirez is the 5th OF....Down to 2 or 3 spots in the bullpen.

[CDog]

dont even think its a discussion......its Butera & Escobar. Drew's spot on this team is as secure as Joe Mauer's & now that he's gotten a hit or 2 this spring, he's may start challenging Doumit for more time behing the plate

 

I suppose they haven't announced Mauer getting optioned yet because of his bigger contract. Probably the right thing to do. So does that make Escobar the backup or are they going to get someone else up there to backup Doumit?