Article: Samuel Deduno keeps throwing curves

[jokin]

As I clicked on the article, I said to myself, "I wonder how long it will take to find a comment declaring that Sammy is doing well because he escaped the harmful effects of Andy and Gardy."

 

Bingo. Second comment.

 

Great detective work, Sherlock. Of course, the fact that I said nothing of the sort doesn't stop Your Stalking-ness get from getting the point of my post entirely wrong.

 

Before you find the need to break out the magnifying glass again, let me re-clarify my statement for you. I said nothing whatsover about Deduno "escaping the effects of Gardy and Ryan", what I did say was that the offseason emergence of Deduno has created a quandry for the braintrust in how, and in what role, if any, to bring Deduno back onto the American League roster. I hope that helps...

[Mr. Brooks]

Does he have any minor league options left? That probably might make a big difference. If he is out of options, they might opt to have him start in AAA, since he won't have to be exposed to waivers until he gets put on the 40.

 

If he does have options left, I think it'd be much more likely that they find a way to get him on the 40 so he can at least start the season with the Twins. We won't have diamond for a couple weeks of the season at least, let the other two D's have a couple starts, see how things go

 

I believe he is out of options.

It looks like he spent time at both the MLB and MiLB in '10, '11, and '12, which I would assume to mean his option years have all been used.

[Mr. Brooks]

Great detective work, Sherlock. Of course, the fact that I said nothing of the sort doesn't stop Your Stalking-ness get from getting the point of my post entirely wrong.

 

Before you find the need to break out the magnifying glass again, let me re-clarify my statement for you. I said nothing about Deduno "escaping the effects of Gardy and Ryan", what I did say was that the offseason emergence of Deduno has created a quandry for the braintrust in how, and in what role to, if any, to bring Deduno back onto the American League roster. I hope that helps...

 

I dont think he was talking about you.

I'm pretty sure he was referring to the 2nd comment in this thread following the article (yours was the first), which he states in his post.

[jokin]

I dont think he was talking about you.

I'm pretty sure he was referring to the 2nd comment in this thread following the article (yours was the first), which he states in his post.

 

Mebbe, but since my post was labeled as "#2", and given the birdwatcher's recent proclivity for seeking bigger game, it leads me to believe that it was me who he had in his sights, but perhaps you are right... I'm sure BW will soon be back for further Twins-party-line enlightenment.

[LimestoneBaggy]

Small sample size? WBC-like exhibition competition? Other detractions?

 

All probably valid comments, but people are excited because they want to hold on to something good this offseason for pitching. And as to Jim C's comments, I hope Joe would know to call the old number 2, he rolled over one .

[Otto von Ballpark]

Have you seen Roenicke pitch or are you just going by his spring training stats? He threw 88 innings in Colorado last year with a 3.25 ERA. Statistically speaking, Roenicke is not Jeff Gray. I haven't actually seen him pitch yet, so maybe last year was a fluke. His K rate was down last year, but at least he had a history of higher numbers.

 

Reliever ERA isn't terribly useful. By that measure, Alex Burnett really turned a corner last year -- but his K rate dropped dangerously low, and his walk rate only dropped slightly.

 

I admit Roenicke does not look as useless as Jeff Gray, that was a slight exaggeration on my part, but he's 30 years old (like Gray was last year) and his K rate has been dropping steadily the past few seasons: from 9 K/9 when he hit the majors in 2009, dropping by about one each year, to 5.5 K/9 last year. All the while his walk rate has remained fairly high. As such, he's been waived by his teams each of the past two years. I haven't seen him pitch, but his spring training stats this year seem in line with these trends.

 

His upside now is almost certainly something like Burnett last year (decent ERA with middling peripherals out of the pen), rather than Burton or Fien. Not only is that of little value to the Twins in 2013, it isn't likely to provide even marginal value beyond that (either in 2014+ performance or trade).

 

If Deduno continues his hot hand in spring training, I'd much rather see him open with the big club, if just for entertainment value. I doubt the Twins would miss Roenicke.

[cmathewson]

One thing I've been wondering about: How does Pitch F/X determine whether it's the curve or the change? I know Jim Kaat was confused, because they both have good downward movement and come in the low 80s. He was only able to say for sure after they did a freeze frame on the grip, showing the change-up grip. The change moves slightly into righties and the curve moves slightly away from righties. Otherwise, movement and speed are comparable. I'm thinking if he's fooling Jim Kaat, he's probably fooling Pitch FX as well.

[Parker Hageman]

How does Pitch F/X determine whether it's the curve or the change? I know Jim Kaat was confused, because they both have good downward movement and come in the low 80s.

 

Pitch FX has the ability to catalogue pitches based on spin and movement. While thrown at similar speeds, curves have more horizontal run than a change (which typically run the opposite direction).

 

If you look at Deduno's game charts, you can see the distinct difference in the break of the curve (purple triangles) versus his change (red):

 

Now, there's definitely going to be some miscategorization, as you can see, there is some blending of his "cutter" (which is likely just his fastball since he has only one grip) and some blending of his change with his fastball.

 

In terms of Kaat not recognizing his pitches, even the most advanced baseball people will have troubles deciphering pitches from time to time, especially with guys they are not following constantly.

[ThePuck]

As I clicked on the article, I said to myself, "I wonder how long it will take to find a comment declaring that Sammy is doing well because he escaped the harmful effects of Andy and Gardy."

 

Bingo. Second comment.

 

Funny, cause once I saw that post I wondered how long it would take for you to complain about it....

[Halsey Hall]

With TK hitting groundballs to about a dozen pitchers this morning in the usual drills, Deduno created the biggest stir. He fielded, threw to 2nd, on to 1st, double play. He let out a yell and jumped with his arms out, just like the photo in the WBC. The players and all the fans got a huge laugh out of that! TK hit 2 more grounders and stopped. He said something like; Ok, still laughing, good one Sammy. You disrupted my rythum. It was funny!

[bl4ckduck]

Great article, possibly one of your best, Parker. But then, some of the best writing in the world happens after Midnight.

 

Good analogy in your closing sentence. The highwire is always the best event at the circus, and since the present Twins pitching rotation qualifies for the side show, if not the freak parade, Deduno is bound to give the ringmasters, Ryan and Gardy, fits, if they are forced to fete him as their #1 Attraction.

 

I made an account just to say this was a great read and really helpful to put the Deduno hype in perspective.

[h2oface]

Great detective work, Sherlock. Of course, the fact that I said nothing of the sort doesn't stop Your Stalking-ness get from getting the point of my post entirely wrong.

 

Before you find the need to break out the magnifying glass again, let me re-clarify my statement for you. I said nothing whatsover about Deduno "escaping the effects of Gardy and Ryan", what I did say was that the offseason emergence of Deduno has created a quandry for the braintrust in how, and in what role, if any, to bring Deduno back onto the American League roster. I hope that helps...

 

Pretty sure he was doggin' me this time. I don't take things personally, even if someone tries to make it that way. A comment is a comment, and it stands on its own, regardless whether it gets picked apart and tried to be made something it wasn't. When accessing articles through the forum....... the likes and share button appear, and the actual poster is #1 it seems. In that way, your first comment actually has a #2 attached to it. When accessing the article from the front page, none of that is there. It is inconsistent that way.

[h2oface]

I guess that means Drew Butera has finally turned the corner.

He's hitting .333 this spring.

We could surprise some people this year, having two good defensive catchers who can both hit well over .300.

 

Yeah........ well, if you think that is even remotely in the same discussion as this one, more power to you. Your new snark should fit right in here....... with some.

[cmathewson]

If you think the WBC games are mere exhibitions, you're not paying attention. Teams are full of all-star major leaguers. It was much higher and more intense competition than any spring training game.

[Mr. Brooks]

Yeah........ well, if you think that is even remotely in the same discussion as this one, more power to you. Your new snark should fit right in here....... with some.

 

Is sample size meaningless or not? You can't just apply it to players you like or don't like. It either matters or it doesnt.

Deduno is a 29 year old with a track record, Butera is a 29 year old with a track record. Why does your statement, "improvement starts somewhere" apply to one but not the other?

Could it just be that you like one player and dont like the other one?

[glunn]

I am issuing a moderator caution on this thread. Let's try to be a bit more respectful here.

[jorgenswest]

Is sample size meaningless or not? You can't just apply it to players you like or don't like. It either matters or it doesnt.

Deduno is a 29 year old with a track record, Butera is a 29 year old with a track record. Why does your statement, "improvement starts somewhere" apply to one but not the other?

Could it just be that you like one player and dont like the other one?

 

Sample size and reliability of statistics relates to the data. The sample is the data without the context of watching the performance.

 

Hopefully the Twins employ coaches and scouts that can learn and assess a great deal from watching players practice and perform in a handful of games.

 

It can not be the data that informs the Twins whether a player has improved. Whether or not Deduno or Butera have improved rests in the assessment if the Twins management observing the approach and looking for specific areas of growth. Improvement can not be measured by data. Spring data should never be cited in the support of an improvement shown by a player. The sample is to small.

[gil4]

Is sample size meaningless or not? You can't just apply it to players you like or don't like. It either matters or it doesnt.

Deduno is a 29 year old with a track record, Butera is a 29 year old with a track record. Why does your statement, "improvement starts somewhere" apply to one but not the other?

Could it just be that you like one player and dont like the other one?

 

Pitchers are more likely to take a big leap forward that isn't predicted by the numbers. A new grip on a pitch, learning to avoid throwing a certain pitch, controlling the stuff that's there, or finally feeling healthy after dealing with injuries can all show up as unexpected leaps forward.

[Kwak]

Batters can change grips too--AJ attributed his HR increase to a change in his grip and in his swing. Deduno may "improve" by a relaxation of the rigidity of Twins philosophy of "manage by pitchcount" and its concommittant bashing of pitchers who "walk too many" or "throw too many pitches", and simply focus on runs allowed.