Miller: Escobar Could Be Gardy's 3rd Catcher

[Riverbrian]

The reason to carry a 3rd catcher should have nothing to do with a potential injury occurring during a game.

 

The reason to carry a catcher is if he is going to be included in the regular catching rotation. Mauer shouldn't catch >100 games this year. 72 last year. Do you want Doumit behind the plate for 60-100 games? He's awful at catching and butera is awful at hitting. Pick your poison. I think the board would unanimously pick Doumit and so would I but it really comes down to how many games Mauer catches.

 

That could be... I'm pretty sure I've read some quotes from Gardy where he specifically talked about needing the third catcher so Joe and Ryan could do some worry free DH'ing. Gardy specifically talked about the potential injury issue in those quotes... Not that I'm a big believer in any quotes because decisions and situations are always deeper than soundbites can provide.

 

As far as team context and what Gardy and TR want... Who knows... I'm sure there is a reason for everything.

 

The only thing I know is that very rarely does any other team carry 3 catchers. The Twins have been doing it... and the Tigers might do it this year with V-Mart manning the DH spot. The Mariners may be another team to watch with Jesus Montero doing DH work.

 

To me it just makes sense to experiment with Escobar. Hopefully he will never play back there because Mauer and Doumit stay healthy.

 

I'd rather have a better bench bat than a 3rd Catcher.

[edavis0308]

Not to beat the Butera thing into the ground, but it seems that last year the approach was reasonable:

1) Start the year without him

2) Call him up when Mauer is banged up (fulfilling the "just a phone call away" strategy) and

3) Keep him because, really, why the hell not? It's not like he was keeping a great pinch-hiter off the roster.

 

But this could be different. I'd love to see a real pinch-hitter added IF they can identify one or bring one in. I don't know if Colabello qualifies or not. Thome certainly would. Then, when Mauer gets banged up and needs to sit for a while, bring up Butera and send down Escobar.

 

Whoa whoa whoa, what happens in the case of a needed 7th middle infielder?

[70charger]

Whoa whoa whoa, what happens in the case of a needed 7th middle infielder?

 

Well, if Florimon's arm falls off, his batting average might go down slightly. Who says we need a 7th?

[cmathewson]

Mauer is healthier than he's been since 2009, and healthier at this stage of the season for "as long as I can remember" according to Joe. So there's less concern about him catching five times a week than in past years. Couple that with Gardy's stated desire to get a real bat on the bench, and this move makes perfect sense. The question, then, is who? My money is on Boggs, but Ramirez has a shot as well.

[Guest USAFChief]

Not to beat the Butera thing into the ground, but it seems that last year the approach was reasonable:

1) Start the year without him

2) Call him up when Mauer is banged up (fulfilling the "just a phone call away" strategy) and

3) Keep him because, really, why the hell not? It's not like he was keeping a great pinch-hiter off the roster.

 

But this could be different. I'd love to see a real pinch-hitter added IF they can identify one or bring one in. I don't know if Colabello qualifies or not. Thome certainly would. Then, when Mauer gets banged up and needs to sit for a while, bring up Butera and send down Escobar.

3) makes no sense whatsoever. Let's hope the team's management thinks things through deeper than "why the hell not?"

[Guest USAFChief]

The reason to carry a 3rd catcher should have nothing to do with a potential injury occurring during a game.

 

The reason to carry a catcher is if he is going to be included in the regular catching rotation. Mauer shouldn't catch >100 games this year. 72 last year. Do you want Doumit behind the plate for 60-100 games? He's awful at catching and butera is awful at hitting. Pick your poison. I think the board would unanimously pick Doumit and so would I but it really comes down to how many games Mauer catches.

If we've truly reached the point where the Twins enter a season expecting Mauer to be unable to catch more than 100 games, that's just more evidence Mauer should have been moved to a new permanent position years ago.

[cmathewson]

In fairness, they haven't carried 3 catchers for most of Gardy's tenure. That only started in 2009 after Mauer was activated late after coming back from injury. And even then, Morales was as much a (switch hitting) pinch hitter as he was the 3rd catcher. Next year, Pavano started requesting a personal catcher, then 2011 happened. 2012 Butera caught Liriano during his renaissance.

 

Everything we've read from Gardy this offseason has been he wants more pop off the bench. He knows that Butera isn't doing him any good when the team is down 4-1 going into the 6th every day.

 

Two words: Corky Miller, who was the FOURTH catcher on the team (counting LeCroy), who pushed Restovich off the roster for good. Gardy has gradually abandoned the desire for so many catchers since that year, when we had like two pinch hits all year or something. But this is a new attitude for him. It's refreshing that he's maybe not as set in his ways as we thought.

[Willihammer]

Toushay about the 2005 team

 

since that year, when we had like two pinch hits all year or something..

 

This comment sort of opened up a can of worms for me. I started looking into what meager pinch hitting statistics are easily available and it appears that pinch hitting is, generally speaking, pretty small peanuts. Exceedingly small, and actually detrimental in some cases.

 

This is a good but old BP article on the topic:

 

Considering only pinch hitting situations in which the player being replaced is not a pitcher, our worst fears appear to be confirmed. In 2005, the average player being replaced hit .250/.315/.392, and the average pinch hitter had season stats of .257/.322/.402. So, on the surface, managers are bringing in superior hitters to help the offense. However, the pinch hitters averaged just .224/.306/.328 in these situations, which is significantly worse than the season averages of the players they were replacing.

 

and further on, this:

 

The remaining 9025 pinch hit chances have been broken into those that created a platoon advantage (i.e., a switch hitter or lefty replacing a righty when facing a RHP, or vice versa), and the rest. Let's first look at the moves designed to create a platoon advantage, which accounts for 78% of these chances. On average, the model predicts a modest improvement of 19 points in wOBA for the pinch hitter, compared with the player he is replacing. Again, this is less than what one would expect if ignoring the "pinch hitting penalty," but it still amounts to an extra run being created every 60 or so times that such a move is made.

 

1 run per 60 PAs on average - when replacing a lefty with a righty, or vice versa.

 

To put that in perspective, the Twins averaged 70 PH ABs since 2010 (unfortunately ESPN's PH tracker doesn't track walks and PAs). Call it 100 PH PAs on average. Assume Gardy is doing a LHB-RHB or RHB-LHB swap 90% of the time (which would be difficult to do if he is replacing a switch-hitter, eg. Florimon), and you have around 1.8 runs gained in those situations.

 

Further on, the BP author writes that in the 20% (10% in AL) of PH appearances where a PH replaces a same-handed hitter, the PHer can be expecte to perform worse than the player he's replacing around a third of the time (after accounting for the PH penalty). But, there's still a small gain overall.

 

So, based on this, we're looking at something like 2 whole runs over the course of a hundred PH PAs in a year, as an estimate. An argument could definitely be made that there about a hundred ways to better use that 25th roster spot besides carrying a Colabello or even a Thome.

[jokin]

Toushay about the 2005 team

 

 

 

This comment sort of opened up a can of worms for me. I started looking into what meager pinch hitting statistics are easily available and it appears that pinch hitting is, generally speaking, pretty small peanuts. Exceedingly small, and actually detrimental in some cases.

 

This is a good but old BP article on the topic:

 

 

 

and further on, this:

 

 

 

1 run per 60 PAs on average - when replacing a lefty with a righty, or vice versa.

 

To put that in perspective, the Twins averaged 70 PH ABs since 2010 (unfortunately ESPN's PH tracker doesn't track walks and PAs). Call it 100 PH PAs on average. Assume Gardy is doing a LHB-RHB or RHB-LHB swap 90% of the time (which would be difficult to do if he is replacing a switch-hitter, eg. Florimon), and you have around 1.8 runs gained in those situations.

 

Further on, the BP author writes that in the 20% (10% in AL) of PH appearances where a PH replaces a same-handed hitter, the PHer can be expecte to perform worse than the player he's replacing around a third of the time (after accounting for the PH penalty). But, there's still a small gain overall.

 

So, based on this, we're looking at something like 2 whole runs over the course of a hundred PH PAs in a year, as an estimate. An argument could definitely be made that there about a hundred ways to better use that 25th roster spot besides carrying a Colabello or even a Thome.

 

(scratches chin)....Pondering using Thome in the 9th inning with the bases loaded or Butera....

[Thrylos]

So..... why again did the Twins offer arbitration to Butera and doubled his salary, instead of signing him to a MiLB contact (which is what he deserves?)

[Nick Nelson]

So..... why again did the Twins offer arbitration to Butera and doubled his salary, instead of signing him to a MiLB contact (which is what he deserves?)

 

The better question is: why do you care so much about $200k? It's nothing.

[Thrylos]

The better question is: why do you care so much about $200k? It's nothing.

 

If it's nothing. I'll tell you where to wire it

 

It is more that the $ (which, yes, in the MLB realm is nothing, on one hand, but it is everything on the other, if you are one of those players who are stuck at AAA and bypassed for others as far as promotions go. And if you don't believe me, just ask some of them...) It is the 40-man roster spot and it is the statement as well...

[The Wise One]

If it's nothing. I'll tell you where to wire it

 

It is more that the $ (which, yes, in the MLB realm is nothing, on one hand, but it is everything on the other, if you are one of those players who are stuck at AAA and bypassed for others as far as promotions go. And if you don't believe me, just ask some of them...) It is the 40-man roster spot and it is the statement as well...

 

Enlighten me. Did the Twins lose someone important from the demotions from the 40 man roster this winter? Was there a decent catcher in Rochester last year?. Was ther somebody who killed the league in hitting that did not make it up?

$200000 out of 120 million dollar budget is nothing especially considering the 40 million not yet spent. At least somebody got the exra nickel.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The better question is: why do you care so much about $200k? It's nothing.

 

Particularly in a season where the Twins payroll is maddeningly low.

[jokin]

Particularly in a season where the Twins payroll is maddeningly low.

 

Not to put words in Thrlos's mouth, the 200k is not the point. The other side of this argument is ignoring the fact that there were options to upgrade their depth at the position and if they wanted to keep Butera, they weren't competing with ANYONE, they easily could have offered him a minor league contract and if by some very strange happenstance that someone actually wanted him, SO WHAT!. It's time to start sending a clear message around the organization that a career performance 5 shades below mediocrity no longer merits a raise and a guaranteed valuable roster spot.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

This is a terrible idea and I really don't like it. There's no way Escobar would ever get the practice needed to play there and I don't really want him to anyway. Catching is not as simple as throwing on a bunch of pads and sitting behind home plate. It's the most difficult fielding position for a variety of reasons. Just roll with Mauer and Doumit with Butera/Herrmann on speed dial in Rochester, please. When Gardy opens his mouth, I'd prefer not to listen.

[snepp]

So..... why again did the Twins offer arbitration to Butera and doubled his salary, instead of signing him to a MiLB contact (which is what he deserves?)

 

Would you risk losing such a valuable property on the open market? I think not.

[Mr. Brooks]

This is a terrible idea and I really don't like it. There's no way Escobar would ever get the practice needed to play there and I don't really want him to anyway. Catching is not as simple as throwing on a bunch of pads and sitting behind home plate. It's the most difficult fielding position for a variety of reasons. Just roll with Mauer and Doumit with Butera/Herrmann on speed dial in Rochester, please. When Gardy opens his mouth, I'd prefer not to listen.

They are not going to put him the catching rotation. They want him as an emergency catcher in case Gardy's irrational fear of losing the DH for a few innings ever comes to fruition.

[kab21]

That could be... I'm pretty sure I've read some quotes from Gardy where he specifically talked about needing the third catcher so Joe and Ryan could do some worry free DH'ing. Gardy specifically talked about the potential injury issue in those quotes... Not that I'm a big believer in any quotes because decisions and situations are always deeper than soundbites can provide.

 

As far as team context and what Gardy and TR want... Who knows... I'm sure there is a reason for everything.

 

The only thing I know is that very rarely does any other team carry 3 catchers. The Twins have been doing it... and the Tigers might do it this year with V-Mart manning the DH spot. The Mariners may be another team to watch with Jesus Montero doing DH work.

 

To me it just makes sense to experiment with Escobar. Hopefully he will never play back there because Mauer and Doumit stay healthy.

 

I'd rather have a better bench bat than a 3rd Catcher.

 

We're not talking about Gardy's reason for carrying a 3rd catcher. I am certain that Gardy has publicly said that he needed a 3rd catcher because of the DH/C thing. We're talking about actual baseball reasons.

 

Imo it makes no sense to work Escobar back there. Regardless of how many times he catches bullpen sessions he will be completely awful at the basics of catching. it would be 1000x better to lose the DH and use a PH'er or two if the starting catcher got injured.

 

Actually I guess it makes sense. It can ease Gardy's mind enough that he won't be as likely to carry a 3rd catcher on the roster even he never uses him behind the plate.

 

The downside of course is that it further strengthens the two futility IF portion of the bench. Escobar hits better than butera but there are halfway competent backup options usually available. For example I'm not sure Escobar (or Florimon) will hit much better than Olivo and he was signed as a MiLB FA.

[CDog]

Not to beat the Butera thing into the ground,

 

and

3) Keep him because, really, why the hell not?

 

Hmmm...it seems like there must be more reason than that. Almost as if the lineup (or the positions played) may have changed or something...... Haha.

[CDog]

This is a terrible idea and I really don't like it. There's no way Escobar would ever get the practice needed to play there and I don't really want him to anyway. Catching is not as simple as throwing on a bunch of pads and sitting behind home plate. It's the most difficult fielding position for a variety of reasons. Just roll with Mauer and Doumit with Butera/Herrmann on speed dial in Rochester, please. When Gardy opens his mouth, I'd prefer not to listen.

 

Everything I've seen implies that Escobar would only be used there from the time of the loss of Mauer and Doumit in a game and the arrival of Butera/Hermann from Rochester. So the terrible idea is essentially exactly the idea you're thinking is the good one.

 

Not to mention, it's not like this is teaching the catcher position to someon who has never done it. He was the White Sox emergency catcher last year from what everyone has said (although he never actually played...which I think would be the hope and plan here, too).

[Guest USAFChief]

Hmmm...it seems like there must be more reason than that. Almost as if the lineup (or the positions played) may have changed or something...... Haha.

So Mauer's knee prevented him from catching...for the rest of the season? Morneau never came back from the DL? Pray tell, what was the compelling reason Butera had to be on the roster for the last 5 months of the season?

[CDog]

So Mauer's knee prevented him from catching...for the rest of the season? Morneau never came back from the DL? Pray tell, what was the compelling reason Butera had to be on the roster for the last 5 months of the season?

 

Already have. A lot of times (hence the "Haha" in the post you quoted). Once again, though, Morneau came back from the DL playing a different position than he had before going on. And in at least one of the times I mentioned this "compelling reason" I explicitly stated that it wasn't necessarily a reason I agreed with, only one that seems likely to have been the driving factor for those that actually make the decisions.

[Riverbrian]

We're not talking about Gardy's reason for carrying a 3rd catcher. I am certain that Gardy has publicly said that he needed a 3rd catcher because of the DH/C thing. We're talking about actual baseball reasons.

 

Imo it makes no sense to work Escobar back there. Regardless of how many times he catches bullpen sessions he will be completely awful at the basics of catching. it would be 1000x better to lose the DH and use a PH'er or two if the starting catcher got injured.

 

Actually I guess it makes sense. It can ease Gardy's mind enough that he won't be as likely to carry a 3rd catcher on the roster even he never uses him behind the plate.

 

The downside of course is that it further strengthens the two futility IF portion of the bench. Escobar hits better than butera but there are halfway competent backup options usually available. For example I'm not sure Escobar (or Florimon) will hit much better than Olivo and he was signed as a MiLB FA.

 

I agree with you 100 percent on the first two paragraphs... I will just add... That if Escobar is labeled as the Emergency Catcher... He would only play in an emergency... He would never start.

 

Paragraph three is exactly my reasoning for the organization training emergency catcher options in the minors over the years. Gardy seems concerned about it... I'm not... but Gardy seems to be concerned. This is a Gardy issue alone and since it's been a Gardy issue for quite some time... The Club should have been working toward this all along on the farm.

 

Paragraph 4... Yeah... I agree but I think we are gonna end up with a couple utility IF backups... At least Escobar could kill two birds with one stone and keep the 2013 Twins from rostering two utility IF's and a 3rd catcher and that could open up a spot for Colabello or Thome.

 

BTW... I wish I knew how to break up quotes into sections when replying to them. Most of you guys are so much more skilled than I.

[Mr. Brooks]

I agree with you 100 percent on the first two paragraphs... I will just add... That if Escobar is labeled as the Emergency Catcher... He would only play in an emergency... He would never start.

 

Paragraph three is exactly my reasoning for the organization training emergency catcher options in the minors over the years. Gardy seems concerned about it... I'm not... but Gardy seems to be concerned. This is a Gardy issue alone and since it's been a Gardy issue for quite some time... The Club should have been working toward this all along on the farm.

 

Paragraph 4... Yeah... I agree but I think we are gonna end up with a couple utility IF backups... At least Escobar could kill two birds with one stone and keep the 2013 Twins from rostering two utility IF's and a 3rd catcher and that could open up a spot for Colabello or Thome.

 

BTW... I wish I knew how to break up quotes into sections when replying to them. Most of you guys are so much more skilled than I.

 

I understand your reasoning regarding Gardy's peace of mind, but I think any time these kids are practicing/learning in the minors could be better spent on about a thousand more important things than emergency catching.

For example:

How not to try to score from 2nd base on an infield single in the playoffs. (I'm looking at you Nick Punto)

[kab21]

I agree with you 100 percent on the first two paragraphs... I will just add... That if Escobar is labeled as the Emergency Catcher... He would only play in an emergency... He would never start.

 

So we are looking at the possibility that both Mauer and Doumit are going to get injured in the same game? And this is why legitimate prospects (making an MLB roster) should divert time away from improving their core skills?

[Riverbrian]

So we are looking at the possibility that both Mauer and Doumit are going to get injured in the same game? And this is why legitimate prospects (making an MLB roster) should divert time away from improving their core skills?

 

Technically... Just one has to get hurt while the other is DH. That seems to be the issue that costs us a roster spot.

 

I'm just the messenger with a weird message.

 

In a nutshell... I'm just saying the conversation should have happened at some point.

 

TR: Gardy... You need 3 catchers?

 

RG: Yes I do. If Joe is going to DH to get his bat in the lineup everyday... If the catcher gets hurt... I need a third catcher like Drew or I have to give up the DH spot and a game may be on the line.

 

TR: You feel strongly about this? Isn't batting Drew Butera kinda like giving up the DH spot.

 

RG: I do feel strongly about this... I'm trying to win games here.

 

TR: I wonder if it makes more sense to get a player or two ready going forward for emergency fill in for a game instead of spending a roster spot? Planning for it... if youmfeel strongly about it... The emergency catcher would only have to play in an emergency. A replacement can be brought up the next day. We are talking about a couple of innings in case of injury... Right?

 

RG: I suppose. I know that riverbrian would agree with this.

 

TR: Riverbrian is a good guy... But I don't think riverbrian would agree with the need to plan for this at all. I think he would say that your need for this type of insurance is crazy.

 

RG: yeah but he knows that I feel strongly about this so... To get that roster spot back... Riverbrian would see it as a sensible compromise.

 

TR: I'll get a list together of players with some catcher experience and we can start the process there. Maybe by 2010... Some of those guys will be in the majors and be that kind of option for you.

 

RG: Thanks Terry... Sounds like a plan... BTW... I talked with Bill Smith earlier today... I think he's going to do a great job in your role. He was talking about building for power... Moving into target field and than changing to a speed game. He's got his eye on this Japanese SS.

[FrodaddyG]

Technically... Just one has to get hurt while the other is DH. That seems to be the issue that costs us a roster spot.

No. Because as was previously stated, the second your catcher goes down, the one DHing shifts behind the plate and you give up the DH for the game without a second thought. Having a pitcher hit or pinch hitting for the spot a couple times is far preferable to hoping an "emergency catcher" doesn't hugely **** up the rest of the game behind the plate.

[Rosterman]

Well, Mauer is the catcher.

Doumit is designated hitter.

We need a bench DH - Thome or someone

We need a second catcher, wait, we got one if someone else can DH.

 

Willingham and Morneau were both originally catchers.

[Riverbrian]

I agree with you... I wouldn't spend a second of time worrying about it.

 

I'd give up the DH spot and finish the game with pinch hitters or pitchers hitting and send for the AAA guy in the morning.

 

There is no argument from me on this issue... We are in complete agreement.

 

but... Since Gardy seems to think differently.