Notebook: Pineda Struggles, Power Bats Break Out

[Dman]

 

I was able to find a spray chart on Kepler from 2019 which was his best year.   Obviously a pull hitter but there was definitely color all over the field.   Can't find the 2020 one.  Anyone know how it looks?

 

I can't believe my eyes on those spray charts.  I haven't seen him hit anything to the left side all spring.  Even when I watched games last year granted I don't watch all of them or every single play but I don't remember him getting a hit the other way only home runs to right field and the occasional hit to right.  Maybe my memory is bad.  Is there a chart for balls hit that includes outs. Something feels off here to me.

[Dman]

 

There is a spray chart for hits in the upper-right corner of his Statcast page:

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/max-kepler-596146?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

If that is the spray chart then I am just going to shut up.  Is there something that shows the spray chart for outs as well?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If that is the spray chart then I am just going to shut up.  Is there something that shows the spray chart for outs as well?

Fangraphs has those, but the 2020 data isn't loading for some reason. You can still view previous years:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/max-kepler/12144/spray-charts?position=OF&type=battedball&pid2=12144&ss1=2018&se1=2018&ss2=2019&se2=2019&cht1=battedball&cht2=battedball&vs1=ALL&vs2=ALL

[Dman]

 

Fangraphs has those, but the 2020 data isn't loading for some reason. You can still view previous years:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/max-kepler/12144/spray-charts?position=OF&type=battedball&pid2=12144&ss1=2018&se1=2018&ss2=2019&se2=2019&cht1=battedball&cht2=battedball&vs1=ALL&vs2=ALL

 

Thank you!  Well at least I don't think I am crazy.  The 2019 spray chart shows a ton of ground outs between first and second and when you look at flyball outs it is interesting that at least in 2019 they are fairly evenly distributed which doesn't fit my narrative. The hits or line drives, especially home runs are skewed to right as well.  Like you said there is no 2020 and 2019 was his best year especially HR wise 2018 is fairly similar as well just not as many HR's.

 

OK so I can see I am over-reacting some but not completely off base either.  He is hitting balls to the right side approximately 2/3 to 3/4 of the time it is the groundballs though that are skewing that as he hits those to the right 80 to 90 percent of the time.  The fly balls are fairly evenly distributed which boggles my mind but the data proves my assumptions wrong there. 

 

I still think there is more he could do approach wise but what do I know.  Obviously the Twins have a strategy they believe in and are going to stick to it.  It just burns me to see Max hit the ball on the ground to the right so much and become an easy out.  Teams are shifting him for a reason though especially in the infield as he hits almost nothing on the ground to the left. I still think there might be value in trying to go oppo to at least move the shift some, but maybe it is over the fence or bust and they don't care about those easy roll over outs.

[jkcarew]

 

I can't believe my eyes on those spray charts.  I haven't seen him hit anything to the left side all spring.  Even when I watched games last year granted I don't watch all of them or every single play but I don't remember him getting a hit the other way only home runs to right field and the occasional hit to right.  Maybe my memory is bad.  Is there a chart for balls hit that includes outs. Something feels off here to me.

Every time Max hits the ball to the left of center, it’s a miss-hit, an accident. It happens, but it’s usually something accidentally sliced (which can work), or a pitch he was late on and hits lazily in the air. At this point it just is what it is, because it’s the same every year. The ball has to go over the fence at a very healthy rate when he hits it, or his value will be very limited.

[jkcarew]

But, spin rate?

 

What am I missing here? Has it been scientifically proven that a spin rate exceeding X cannot be achieved without a foreign substance...or more than Y standard deviations from the mean is impossible? Exactly what is X and Y then? Or is the league at such a loss for ways to improve balls-in-play, that they’ve simply outlawing really really good pitches?

 

There’s a person monitoring a laptop in the press-box and wired to the umpire. And we add to the lexicon of the game: in addition to “Ball two, outside!”, we can add “Ball two, unfair!”

[arby58]

 

Well, better send Kepler down. That’s what happens when you don’t perform lights-out in a handful of Spring Training ABs.

2 for 33 at bats is an awfully big handful.

[Dantes929]

 

Fangraphs has those, but the 2020 data isn't loading for some reason. You can still view previous years:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/max-kepler/12144/spray-charts?position=OF&type=battedball&pid2=12144&ss1=2018&se1=2018&ss2=2019&se2=2019&cht1=battedball&cht2=battedball&vs1=ALL&vs2=ALL

Thats what I was looking at in the first place.  Good to know it wasn't loading for you also.

 

Thank you!  Well at least I don't think I am crazy.  The 2019 spray chart shows a ton of ground outs between first and second and when you look at flyball outs it is interesting that at least in 2019 they are fairly evenly distributed which doesn't fit my narrative. The hits or line drives, especially home runs are skewed to right as well.  Like you said there is no 2020 and 2019 was his best year especially HR wise 2018 is fairly similar as well just not as many HR's.

 

OK so I can see I am over-reacting some but not completely off base either.  He is hitting balls to the right side approximately 2/3 to 3/4 of the time it is the groundballs though that are skewing that as he hits those to the right 80 to 90 percent of the time.  The fly balls are fairly evenly distributed which boggles my mind but the data proves my assumptions wrong there. 

 

I still think there is more he could do approach wise but what do I know.  Obviously the Twins have a strategy they believe in and are going to stick to it.  It just burns me to see Max hit the ball on the ground to the right so much and become an easy out.  Teams are shifting him for a reason though especially in the infield as he hits almost nothing on the ground to the left. I still think there might be value in trying to go oppo to at least move the shift some, but maybe it is over the fence or bust and they don't care about those easy roll over outs.

I also thought the spray charts would be more obvious but I still go with the eye test and like Jkcarew's explanation since it does dovetail with mine.    Back in the day Josh Willingham's spray chart probably looked similar from one year to the next but one year I was impressed with his balance and how he was striding toward the pitcher and the next year I was disgusted with how he looked like he was trying to pull every pitch.   Nothing wrong with being a pull hitter.   Trying to pull as well as swinging too hard is different.   I compare it to my golf swing.   When I try to hit it 250 I hit it 220.   When I try to hit it 210 with good balance and tempo it often goes 250.   Like Kepler, too often its the former rather than the latter.

[prouster]

 

Ortiez used to complain about the Twins wanting him to go the opposite way but that training might very well have been a big boost to his career.

David Ortiz made 10 All-Star teams, won 7 Silver Slugger awards, and hit over 500 career home runs. I think did just fine murdering baseballs to the right side of the field. I'd go so far as to say the Twins were on the brink of ruining him with their insistence on "going the other way."

[Dantes929]

 

David Ortiz made 10 All-Star teams, won 7 Silver Slugger awards, and hit over 500 career home runs. I think did just fine murdering baseballs to the right side of the field. I'd go so far as to say the Twins were on the brink of ruining him with their insistence on "going the other way."

He was a good hitter for the Twins and at the time I thought they gave up on him too soon though of course I didn't expect  him to be the hitter he became..   I did some analysis several years ago that showed his spray chart was very similar with Boston to what it was with the Twins.   Of course a guy like him shouldn't be TRYING to go the other way but he went with the pitch really well and whose to say his training with the Twins didn't help his career though I know he was critical at the time also.    I think it just as likely that if he started with Boston and they just said we want you hitting homeruns to right field that he would not have ended up the hitter he was.  .   He murdered the ball to all fields but as I have pointed out he was a natural pull hitter.    He always had great balance and you rarely saw him stepping in the bucket or wildly overswinging.   That is different that what Kepler has been doing.    Here is Ortiz spray chart.    Like I said, he went with the pitch quite well but with a natural pull swing.   https://www.fangraphs.com/players/david-ortiz/745/spray-charts?position=DH&type=battedball&pid2=745&ss1=2012&se1=2016&ss2=2016&se2=2016&cht1=hangtime&cht2=battedball&vs1=ALL&vs2=ALL

[prouster]

He was a good hitter for the Twins and at the time I thought they gave up on him too soon though of course I didn't expect him to be the hitter he became.. I did some analysis several years ago that showed his spray chart was very similar with Boston to what it was with the Twins. Of course a guy like him shouldn't be TRYING to go the other way but he went with the pitch really well and whose to say his training with the Twins didn't help his career though I know he was critical at the time also. I think it just as likely that if he started with Boston and they just said we want you hitting homeruns to right field that he would not have ended up the hitter he was. . He murdered the ball to all fields but as I have pointed out he was a natural pull hitter. He always had great balance and you rarely saw him stepping in the bucket or wildly overswinging. That is different that what Kepler has been doing. Here is Ortiz spray chart. Like I said, he went with the pitch quite well but with a natural pull swing. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/david-ortiz/745/spray-charts?position=DH&type=battedball&pid2=745&ss1=2012&se1=2016&ss2=2016&se2=2016&cht1=hangtime&cht2=battedball&vs1=ALL&vs2=ALL

What’s the difference between a natural pull hitter who goes with the pitch and a guy who just pulls the ball a lot? That strikes me as a distinction without a difference.

 

I don’t want to derail the thread, but all of Ortiz’s star years came in Boston. Maybe they got lucky, but the Twins philosophy in those years was infamously centered around slapping the ball to the other field. If he stayed with the Twins, I feel pretty safe assuming he would not have had the decorated career he did. I just can’t imagine suggesting a guy who homered 500 times should have changed anything about his approach. If that’s not good enough, then what is?

[Dantes929]

 

What’s the difference between a natural pull hitter who goes with the pitch and a guy who just pulls the ball a lot? That strikes me as a distinction without a difference.

I don’t want to derail the thread, but all of Ortiz’s star years came in Boston. Maybe they got lucky, but the Twins philosophy in those years was infamously centered around slapping the ball to the other field. If he stayed with the Twins, I feel pretty safe assuming he would not have had the decorated career he did. I just can’t imagine suggesting a guy who homered 500 times should have changed anything about his approach. If that’s not good enough, then what is?

I think I explained it in many ways in prior posts.    There is a big distinction between being a pull hitter and being a hitter that tries to pull the ball.   Morneau talks about it a lot also.    He said he knew he was on when he he hit pitches middle in to right field but the pitches on the outer corner to left of center.  He knew he was too pull happy when those outside pitches constantly got him out.  I never suggested Ortiz should have changed his approach in Boston.  Like you said he was a HOF hitter there.   We know his development years were with the Twins and that he was HOF with Boston.   We don't know if his training with Minnesota helped him develop as a hitter or if it held him back.   We don't know what he would have been if his first half dozen years were with Boston and we don't know what he would have done with MN if he stayed with them.    I thought he was a good hitter with MN but every time it seemed he was getting on a good streak he got hurt.    I think that as much as anything had to do with why they let him go.   If he had stayed healthy and they don't try to save money maybe he ends up being HOF with Mn.     https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/04/04/former-twins-still-regrets-releasing-david-ortiz/x9aJz1CgCePxODxQqnZH4I/story.html

[prouster]

I think I explained it in many ways in prior posts. There is a big distinction between being a pull hitter and being a hitter that tries to pull the ball. Morneau talks about it a lot also. He said he knew he was on when he he hit pitches middle in to right field but the pitches on the outer corner to left of center. He knew he was too pull happy when those outside pitches constantly got him out. I never suggested Ortiz should have changed his approach in Boston. Like you said he was a HOF hitter there. We know his development years were with the Twins and that he was HOF with Boston. We don't know if his training with Minnesota helped him develop as a hitter or if it held him back. We don't know what he would have been if his first half dozen years were with Boston and we don't know what he would have done with MN if he stayed with them. I thought he was a good hitter with MN but every time it seemed he was getting on a good streak he got hurt. I think that as much as anything had to do with why they let him go. If he had stayed healthy and they don't try to save money maybe he ends up being HOF with Mn. https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/04/04/former-twins-still-regrets-releasing-david-ortiz/x9aJz1CgCePxODxQqnZH4I/story.html

I guess I don’t get what you’re arguing. David Ortiz may have benefited from going the other way more often, but he didn’t need to change anything because he was a natural pull hitter who went with the ball and had HOF level offensive output, but we also don’t know what might have gone differently if he stayed in Minnesota? There doesn’t exactly appear to be a point here so much as an acknowledgement that we can’t know what didn’t happen.