Mackey: Low Risk or Not, Twins are Taking a Philosophical Gamble

[Alex]

 

My major irritation is with those who use the Correia move (and the narrative around it) as some sort of litmus of the Twins overall plan going forward. That we should remain hopeless about the present and the future until the Twins make a group-think approved big splash (or avoid overpaying for mediocre back-end pitching). There's an undercurrent throughout this thread (and in other long threads) that the Twins don't know what they are doing and that somehow this is a perfectly legitimate and popular assessment. We all have plenty of questions about the Twins FO--if anything, this offseason gives me hope for the future even if it makes me shrug my shoulders at the present.

 

The Correia move is the cherry (or something else) on top. The Twins made more interesting FA moves last year that clearly improved the team and managed to do so while cutting their budget. Willingham, Doumit, and Carroll were all solid to good signings.

 

However, they were filled with equally puzzling "scout" type moves, especially related but not limited to pitchers: Marquis, Gray, Dozier, Slama (?). The lone success was Burton. To add, their rhetoric around pitcher evaluation is equally puzzling and doesn't strengthen confidence. Whether or not this is a ploy, it's tough to tell, but they don't exactly have a staff that shows it is. Finally, there's the way they've handled injuries (Pavano, Baker).

 

Considering their current status at the major league level I don't think the Twins have really done anything to disprove this narrative -- a narrative that is the sum total of all of these things and for which Correia's signing (not even him as much as the contract) becomes a lightning rod for it.

[Nick Nelson]

That we should remain hopeless about the present and the future until the Twins make a group-think approved big splash (or avoid overpaying for mediocre back-end pitching).

There's a pretty big gap between signing Kevin Correia and a "big splash." You're overstating people's expectations. And while I'm certainly willing to admit that some of the pitchers who signed for more than Correia will be mediocre back-end pitchers, not all will. I'd like to think the Twins' evaluators could put together an educated guess. That is their job, right?

 

There's an undercurrent throughout this thread (and in other long threads) that the Twins don't know what they are doing and that somehow this is a perfectly legitimate and popular assessment. We all have plenty of questions about the Twins FO--if anything, this offseason gives me hope for the future even if it makes me shrug my shoulders at the present.

It's not that I think they don't know what they're doing. I'm sure they have a plan in place. But the fact that their plan causes a hardcore fans like yourself to "shrug (your) shoulders at the present" is beyond disappointing and an insult to guys like Mauer and Morneau if they go out and put together big years.

[jokin]

There's plenty positive to focus on about this offseason if one chooses too. I think most people would give the Twins positive marks for the offseason moves in total.

 

Most would give positive marks to the Span and Revere trades. I certainly would. But because they dealt away a couple quality players for some good prospects they get a free pass on the rest of the offseason? What else have they done this winter to give you the impression that they even give a damn? For the most pitching-desperate team in baseball, with $25 million in supposedly available payroll, to come away from the FA market with Correia, Pelfrey and Harden is shameful.

 

Nick, this is a post where I am in full agreement with you, don't forget, in addition to the $25M, they also were freed up from their commitment to Span, so, they had well over $30M to build for the future- and build some enthusiasm and hope for the present- cynically choosing not to do so....this from a team that promised us the days of being unable to compete with the big-market teams was over.

 

BTW, there's a "boy in the plastic bubble" just above you, apparently lightheaded from the rarefied air pumping through his very own homer dome. Pseudo, I enjoy conversing with you, but this time you've gone 2 compressed oxygen tanks of "positivity" too far.

[ThePuck]

The Correia move is the cherry (or something else) on top. The Twins made more interesting FA moves last year that clearly improved the team and managed to do so while cutting their budget. Willingham, Doumit, and Carroll were all solid to good signings.

 

However, they were filled with equally puzzling "scout" type moves, especially related but not limited to pitchers: Marquis, Gray, Dozier, Slama (?). The lone success was Burton. To add, their rhetoric around pitcher evaluation is equally puzzling and doesn't strengthen confidence. Finally, there's the way they've handled injuries (Pavano, Baker). Whether or not this is a ploy, it's tough to tell, but considering their current status at the major league level I don't think the Twins haven't really done anything to disprove this narrative -- the narrative is the sum total of all of these things.

 

Those FA signings were nice. Predictable, but nice. Willingham replaced Cuddy, Doumit replaced Kubel. They weren't building onto what we have, they were filling departures. And yes, they cut payroll....which I'd give they credit for if they used those savings to continue to build a contender instead of pocketing it. So, I mean, I can't give them credit on the payroll cutting part of the equation

[DaveW]

Knowing what contracts and trades have happened thus far in MLB, I would really like to hear one of the "Derp the Twins have screwed the pooch this off-season again!" folks lay out a plan on how they would turn this team from a 95 loss team to a 92 win team this off-season (without giving up the future)

 

I'm all ears. (Keep in mind that it's highly unlikely that a guy like Dan Haren would have signed here over Washigton for the same contract (for very obvious reasons) so if you are going to include a guy like him in the plan, make sure you take on some extra dollars)

 

At the end of the day, the only way the Twins compete is if they get some HUGE contributions from young players like Hicks, Gibson, Dozier and Plouffe. And if Mauer/Morneau/Willingham can all stay healthy and mash. Replacing a guy like Correia with Myers isn't going to be the difference between a 90 loss year and a 90 win year FYI.

 

FWIW: I'd still like to see the Twins bring in Marcum. At least then you have a pitching staff that if a few things break right could end up around league average.

[Alex]

Knowing what contracts and trades have happened thus far in MLB, I would really like to hear one of the "Derp the Twins have screwed the pooch this off-season again!" folks lay out a plan on how they would turn this team from a 95 loss team to a 92 win team this off-season (without giving up the future)

 

.

 

No one is saying they could have turned this into a 92 win season. That's just as tiring a counter argument. However, they haven't even really improved them to the point of them hoping to be competitive.

[TheLeviathan]

Knowing what contracts and trades have happened thus far in MLB, I would really like to hear one of the "Derp the Twins have screwed the pooch this off-season again!" folks lay out a plan on how they would turn this team from a 95 loss team to a 92 win team this off-season (without giving up the future

 

Not sure anyone is suggesting that. But I'd love Marcum for at least the chance that he'd have a great season and be traded at the deadline for more future ammo. It beats the inevitable "Getting Willingham back from an injury is just like making a trade!" that we'll be doing on Aug. 1.

 

In all seriousness, even if you can't improve to a playoff level, putting that 30M into talent gives the team many, many more options both in the immediate future and the near future. And given what will be done with the money otherwise, I don't think that's much to ask.

[Alex]

Those FA signings were nice. Predictable, but nice. Willingham replaced Cuddy, Doumit replaced Kubel. They weren't building onto what we have, they were filling departures. And yes, they cut payroll....which I'd give they credit for if they used those savings to continue to build a contender instead of pocketing it. So, I mean, I can't give them credit on the payroll cutting part of the equation

 

My point in cutting payroll is that these players clearly improved the lineup top down and they did it for good value. Doumit and Willingham were net gains over those two, both of whom thought Target Field should play like the Dome. Doumit turned out to be less of a replacement for Kubel than a replacement for many a Drew Butera game and allowing the Twins a back-up catcher who didn't kill them at the plate.

 

I agree with the payroll issue, as well, but my point was that this didn't cost them a lot. This offseason, by comparison, they haven't really made improvements at all.

[ThePuck]

My point in cutting payroll is that these players clearly improved the lineup top down and they did it for good value. Doumit and Willingham were net gains over those two, both of whom thought Target Field should play like the Dome. Doumit turned out to be less of a replacement for Kubel than a replacement for many a Drew Butera game and allowing the Twins a back-up catcher who didn't kill them at the plate.

 

I agree with the payroll issue, as well, but my point was that this didn't cost them a lot. This offseason, by comparison, they haven't really made improvements at all.

 

I understood what you were saying, I'm just saying, for me, I only give credit for the savings if that money is put back into the payroll. I mean, yeah, from a bottom line financial look, sure...but as a fan, taking that money and putting it in their pockets...

 

In other words, I wasn't really meaning to take a shot at you...just saying how I looked at it.

 

As far as Doumit's role. I believe when he was signed, the point was to replace Kubel. When the doctors came out and said Morny needs to cut down in the field for awhile to avoid concussion symptoms coming back, the plan changed since that made Mauer needing to play 1B more (as the best option to do so)

[DaveW]

No one is saying they could have turned this into a 92 win season. That's just as tiring a counter argument. However, they haven't even really improved them to the point of them hoping to be competitive.

 

If you don't have a team that you can build that can conceivably win 90-92 games, then what is the point of spending a bunch of improving them to be a 78-84 win team best case scenario? If Hicks/Gibson/etc come out and look good, then you take a run at things! You don't just waste money on 2-3 year contracts at this point for the sake of trying to compete if everything goes right. I agree that they should have signed some more one year contracts, and I still think they should go after guys like Marcum/Saunders/Kelly Johnson on such deals.

 

If anything, I give Ryan credit for realizing this is most likely a rebuilding year, instead of going out and trying to just make a bunch of bad signings (Correia excluded- but even his contract isn't that bad relatively)

 

Best case scenario is guys like Hendriks/Worley/Diamond/Gibson/Pelfrey/Parmelee/Hicks/Morneau/Plouffe/Dozier etc all preform well out of the gate, THEN you can go out and try to add some more pieces if necessary.

[DaveW]

Not sure anyone is suggesting that. But I'd love Marcum for at least the chance that he'd have a great season and be traded at the deadline for more future ammo. It beats the inevitable "Getting Willingham back from an injury is just like making a trade!" that we'll be doing on Aug. 1.

 

In all seriousness, even if you can't improve to a playoff level, putting that 30M into talent gives the team many, many more options both in the immediate future and the near future. And given what will be done with the money otherwise, I don't think that's much to ask.

 

I'm not sure signing a guy with the sole idea of "Well if he does well we will trade him!" is a really sound baseball idea (maybe I am wrong) but at the end of the day, most deadline deals over the past few years haven't been including any real stud packages of prospects, and Marcum even at his best won't command such a return IMO

 

Don't get me wrong, I still think they should sign Marcum, as I have been stating for months, but if you are doing it in hopes of dealing him at the deadline, I think you are at that point better off using that money to pump into scouting, international signings etc. If you want to sign him in order to stablize the rotation and "go for it" then I am 110% in.

 

I look at the contracts signed this off-season and I don't see a ton where I am like "damn the Twins really missed out on that!" Also, I think the Span and Revere trades netted them some of the best talent in the trade market this off-season (besides the Bauer trade- I really, really, wish they would have gone after a Bauer or Johnson)

[ThePuck]

If you don't have a team that you can build that can conceivably win 90-92 games, then what is the point of spending a bunch of improving them to be a 78-84 win team best case scenario? If Hicks/Gibson/etc come out and look good, then you take a run at things! You don't just waste money on 2-3 year contracts at this point for the sake of trying to compete if everything goes right. I agree that they should have signed some more one year contracts, and I still think they should go after guys like Marcum/Saunders/Kelly Johnson on such deals.

 

If anything, I give Ryan credit for realizing this is most likely a rebuilding year, instead of going out and trying to just make a bunch of bad signings (Correia excluded- but even his contract isn't that bad relatively)

 

Best case scenario is guys like Hendriks/Worley/Diamond/Gibson/Pelfrey/Parmelee/Hicks/Morneau/Plouffe/Dozier etc all preform well out of the gate, THEN you can go out and try to add some more pieces if necessary.

 

How about to give the fans reason for optimism...to put a product somewhat worthy of the fans...to at least TRY and fulfill your promises...and it's not like those players signed aren't assets as well..

 

Why does it have to be between title contender and dregs of the AL?

[twinsnorth49]

Best case scenario is guys like Hendriks/Worley/Diamond/Gibson/Pelfrey/Parmelee/Hicks/Morneau/Plouffe/Dozier etc all preform well out of the gate, THEN you can go out and try to add some more pieces if necessary.

 

But they won't, haven't you been listening?

[TheLeviathan]

I'm not sure signing a guy with the sole idea of "Well if he does well we will trade him!" is a really sound baseball idea (maybe I am wrong) but at the end of the day, most deadline deals over the past few years haven't been including any real stud packages of prospects, and Marcum even at his best won't command such a return IMO

 

Like I said, at the very least it gives us that. Potentially adding him gives us more upside than that. I would've taken Baker over Pelfrey. How about Haren on a one year shot? Brandon McCarthy over Correia? How about a year or two for Drew? Dave, there were plenty of ways to eat up some of that cash that will now be pocketed that would add talent to this team without crippling the future.

[jokin]

Knowing what contracts and trades have happened thus far in MLB, I would really like to hear one of the "Derp the Twins have screwed the pooch this off-season again!" folks lay out a plan on how they would turn this team from a 95 loss team to a 92 win team this off-season (without giving up the future)

 

I'm all ears. (Keep in mind that it's highly unlikely that a guy like Dan Haren would have signed here over Washigton for the same contract (for very obvious reasons) so if you are going to include a guy like him in the plan, make sure you take on some extra dollars)

 

At the end of the day, the only way the Twins compete is if they get some HUGE contributions from young players like Hicks, Gibson, Dozier and Plouffe. And if Mauer/Morneau/Willingham can all stay healthy and mash. Replacing a guy like Correia with Myers isn't going to be the difference between a 90 loss year and a 90 win year FYI.

 

FWIW: I'd still like to see the Twins bring in Marcum. At least then you have a pitching staff that if a few things break right could end up around league average.

 

Absolutely. It's the obvious move, the right move, the affordable move (even with an overbid to get him), which is why they won't do it.

 

I don't think anyone is under any illusions that the Twins can make a worst-to-first run like in 1990. An aggressive attempt to get Shields in trade w/ an extension, plus a 2nd tier signee like Marcum should have been doable and would have produced an-above average rotation and still left room to get some MI help with a $100M payroll. This would have meant no Meyer, but still would have left the door open for acquiring Worley and May. This would have been more than enough elixir to provide the true "hope" and "positivity" that the homers are falsely claiming has been achieved this offseason

[Ultima Ratio]

How about to give the fans reason for optimism...to put a product somewhat worthy of the fans...to at least TRY and fulfill your promises...and it's not like those players signed aren't assets as well..

 

Why does it have to be between title contender and dregs of the AL?

 

Agreed. With the money available they certainly could have fielded a team that was capable of staying within 10 games through August. And with luck and injuries in the division, who knows. As is, this team will almost necessarily suck again this year, and that is not what was promised.

[ThePuck]

Like I said, at the very least it gives us that. Potentially adding him gives us more upside than that. I would've taken Baker over Pelfrey. How about Haren on a one year shot? Brandon McCarthy over Correia? How about a year or two for Drew? Dave, there were plenty of ways to eat up some of that cash that will now be pocketed that would add talent to this team without crippling the future.

 

I don't understand how adding players that would add 20-25M to payroll for the next three years would cripple this team with the amount of payroll coming off in the next two years...

[TheLeviathan]

I don't understand how adding players that would add 20-25M to payroll for the next three years would cripple this team with the amount of payroll coming off in the next two years...

 

Nor do I.

[ThePuck]

Nor do I.

 

Yet people keep using it in their argument...

[old nurse]

Knowing what contracts and trades have happened thus far in MLB, I would really like to hear one of the "Derp the Twins have screwed the pooch this off-season again!" folks lay out a plan on how they would turn this team from a 95 loss team to a 92 win team this off-season (without giving up the future)

 

I'm all ears. (Keep in mind that it's highly unlikely that a guy like Dan Haren would have signed here over Washigton for the same contract (for very obvious reasons) so if you are going to include a guy like him in the plan, make sure you take on some extra dollars)

 

At the end of the day, the only way the Twins compete is if they get some HUGE contributions from young players like Hicks, Gibson, Dozier and Plouffe. And if Mauer/Morneau/Willingham can all stay healthy and mash. Replacing a guy like Correia with Myers isn't going to be the difference between a 90 loss year and a 90 win year FYI.

 

FWIW: I'd still like to see the Twins bring in Marcum. At least then you have a pitching staff that if a few things break right could end up around league average.

 

I would have been real interested in knowing how much it would take to overpay a mid level talent free agent to go to a last place team two years running. Willingham and the others came to a team that had won the division two years before. There was no reason to think a pitching staff could implode twice..

[jokin]

Best case scenario is guys like Hendriks/Worley/Diamond/Gibson/Pelfrey/Parmelee/Hicks/Morneau/Plouffe/Dozier etc all preform well out of the gate, THEN you can go out and try to add some more pieces if necessary.

 

 

But they won't, haven't you been listening?

 

Gibson, Pelfrey and Hicks quite possibly won't even be on the 25-man out of the gate. Worley probably will, but is coming off of September elbow surgery, so his initial level of effectiveness is in some doubt. Would a breakout opening to the season with the rest of this list cause the Twins to go out and acquire more pieces and jeopardize the "plan" for the future? Unlikely. I dion't think anyone's saying "they won't" have a chance to play above expectations, but the FO hasn't exactly done the things needed to have another option beside the "best-case scenario" to be even incrementally better than last year.

[twinsnorth49]

Yet people keep using it in their argument...

 

I've read every post in this thread, I didn't read a single one that made this arguement.

[jokin]

Yet people keep using it in their argument...

 

.....And at first, kept attacking those who stayed steadfast in their prediction that they were going into slo-mo payroll immolation, promises notwithstanding.

[TheLeviathan]

I would have been real interested in knowing how much it would take to overpay a mid level talent free agent to go to a last place team two years running. Willingham and the others came to a team that had won the division two years before. There was no reason to think a pitching staff could implode twice..

 

So not adding talent and being content with that.....somehow changes that trend? Please explain.

[ThePuck]

I've read every post in this thread, I didn't read a single one that made this arguement.

 

This argument has been all over this site...not just this thread.

[Mark_RM]

Hopefully in 6 years 3 top-5 draft picks makes all of our angst somewhat worthwhile...

Trying to grasp at some positive straws after rereading the Mackey article.

[jokin]

Hopefully in 6 years 3 top-5 draft picks makes all of our angst somewhat worthwhile...

Trying to grasp at some positive straws after rereading the Mackey article.

 

That's a long, long grasp for positivity straws ....2019? The days of 5000 angst-ridden remaining fans in the stands would be upon us way before then...

[beckmt]

Does anyone think that having Swarzak on this team will make a difference. The change will come when the lightweights are gone(read 2014). Gardinhire already knows that if the young players do not start with the big team if they have decent spring trainings, that this season is lost

[old nurse]

An aggressive attempt to get Shields in trade w/ an extension, n and still left room to get some MI help with a $100M payroll. This would have meant no Meyer, but still would have left the door open for acquiring Worley and May. This would have been more than enough elixir to provide the true "hope" and "positivity" that the homers are falsely claiming has been achieved this offseason

 

Denard Span for Shields? Compared to what KC gave up. Get a reality check.

What middle infielder who could hit had any sort of range left that was available on the free agent market this year? Go ahead and be snide and tell me who I missed.

[old nurse]

Yet people keep using it in their argument...

 

That argument was used lst year and the year before. Your statement does explain a lot