Article: Seth's 2013 Top 30 Twins Prospects

[Seth Stohs]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1324-Seth-s-2013-Top-30-Twins-Prospects

[righty8383]

Pretty well done. 3-8 could pretty much be pulled out of a hat and it would be hard to argue. I disagree with a few in the 17-25 range. I think Polanco, malotakis, Tonkin and Roberts should be ahead of Herrmann and Hermsen. I don't think Hernandez should be on the list at all.

[lightfoot789]

Watch for Josh Burris to be a sleeper this year in Low A and Matt Tomshaw to be a sleeper in Ft. Myer & New Brittan. MY SLEEPERS

Nice list though

[Oldgoat_MN]

I have some questions, too.

None of them is as interesting as the time & effort you've put into this.

This is awesome.

Thank you Seth.

[Seth Stohs]

Pretty well done. 3-8 could pretty much be pulled out of a hat and it would be hard to argue. I disagree with a few in the 17-25 range. I think Polanco, malotakis, Tonkin and Roberts should be ahead of Herrmann and Hermsen. I don't think Hernandez should be on the list at all.

 

I won't disagree with you too much, but at some point, we do have to credit Hermsen for pitching very, very well. The strikeouts are low, but he is young for the level and put up great numbers. Will he be a Brandon Webb-like success in the big leagues. Who knows? I mean, he's only ranked in the mid-teens, so that doesn't shout out top of the rotation, but there are guys who are solid back of the rotation guys for several years and make a lot of money. I don't know that many work as hard as Hermsen does, and his control and changes of speed and movement are, if nothing else, intriguing.

 

I see Herrmann as taking over that 3rd catcher job mid-season. He can play many positions. He may not hit for very high average, but he does put together quality at bats, takes some walks and hits some doubles. Again, in the late teens, the upside for someone in AA or higher is role player.

 

As for Hernandez, I hear that a lot, but again, he's a lefty who hits 91, mixes speed and has multiple pitches there's some value there, be it spot starter or bullpen specialist down the road. He's so young.

[Seth Stohs]

Watch for Josh Burris to be a sleeper this year in Low A and Matt Tomshaw to be a sleeper in Ft. Myer & New Brittan. MY SLEEPERS

Nice list though

 

I don't know how much of a 'sleeper' Burris is. People around here talk about him a lot, and if I did the list out to 40, he would likely be in that 31-40 range, if only because of his curveball. Still not sure what his role will be, starting or relieving, and there are control issues, but like his ability to get strikeouts. I'm comfortable with where I have him, and if he continues to strikeout that many and becomes a starter, he'll move up quickly.

 

I really like Tomshaw. I have a ton of respect for guys that have to 'pitch' and yet succeed. He tops out at about 86 mph on the right day, but he has great character and toughness and six decent pitches. He's definitely the kind of guy you want to root for!

[Seth Stohs]

I have some questions, too.

None of them is as interesting as the time & effort you've put into this.

This is awesome.

Thank you Seth.

 

First of all, thank you for the kind words and the support. It is appreciated.

Second, it is a ton of work, but I love this stuff. I love talking about the prospects, they deserve recognition. I love the minor league process. I fully appreciate how good a player has to be to make it to A ball, much less AA, AAA or even just to get a cup of coffee in the big leagues.

So, please, feel free to ask any questions you like.

[ericchri]

What happens if Benson rebounds back into form, Roberts continues getting on base a ton, and Walker learns how to not strike out so much as they rise through the levels? We have so many outfield prospects, most with pretty high upside. Realistically all won't make it, but even so it's hard to imagine we won't find 3 really good ones out of that bunch to roam our outfield for years.

 

As was mentioned previously, after those first couple, there's a mash of guys that all have a ton of potential that we just need to see how things shake out. I like Arcia at #3. I like that there's so much debate over who should be #3. I love the potential for Rosario as a 2B (if he sticks there he's in the debate for #3). This will be such an interesting year to watch the minors. I suppose that could be said every year, but we have so many intriguing prospects right now. I can barely wait to see how these guys do this year.

 

The guys I probably most want to see this year are the middle infielders. Rosario, Santana, Polanco, Goodrum, Michael. If a couple of those guys really start looking good (yes Rosario probably does already, if his defense is up to snuff), we have a great prospect at pretty much every position excepting maybe catcher depending on how you view Herrmann.

 

Thanks for this Seth! I really appreciate the time you (and others as well) put in to let the rest of us know more about the guys on the farm. It makes riding out the bad years a little more bearable.

[cmathewson]

Nice list. I'd switch out Santana and Polanco. But, otherwise, not a lot to argue with here. Good job.

[mnfanforlife]

OK, I LOVE Vargas at #12...that's gutsy. I had people telling me he was not top-20.

 

But, why can't we expect Jorge Polanco to hit well as he advances?? Just your opinion?

 

Zachary Jones is NOT in your top-30?? Whoa...he is gonna impress you this year. You'll be like, "what was I thinking dissing Jones?" In my opinion, Jones is better than your 25-30.

[mnfanforlife]

Ortiz does not belong in the top-30. I mean, you didn't include Tyler Duffey, Josmil Pinto, DJ Baxendale, AJ Achter, Zach Jones, Corey Williams, etc. But DID include Ortiz? Ortiz probably won't ever make it out of AA, but he's a top-30 guy for you?

[mnfanforlife]

One more thing..I dont see how A. Salcedo can be ranked ahead of ANY other pitcher in the system...production matters to me.

[kab21]

The big surprise is Niko at #27. I've been questioning why some are so high on him because his season wasn't really that good. An awesome month followed by 2 bad ones. I would still rank him higher because of his tools but I'm pretty concerned that he's missing the hit tool.

 

I'm interested in the reasoning behind the Polanco comments. He's one of my favorite sleepers right now but I'm trying to stay reserved until he gets to full season ball.

 

Here's the interesting thing for Twins lists this year: RP'ers

Seth's list - it seems that the first two made it based on them having a chance to start

Bard - 20

Melatokis - 22

Tonkin - 24

 

Sickel's list

Melatokis - 12

Bard - 13

Chargois - 17

Jones - 18

Tonkin - 19

Williams - 23

#23 was the final ranking

 

Obviously they value RP'ers differently and I side more with Seth but I am finding it very difficult to rank the RP'ers this year.

[Steve Lein]

The only quibble I have is Nate Roberts (Probably because he's been a favorite of mine since drafted). I know he's "old," but he's solid-average across the board on tools and how they play in games right now, which is a lot more than can be said about several guys in front of him. If he doesn't skip up to AA to start this year, I think the Twins are doing yet another prospect a disservice 'ala Anthony Slama.

 

My hope is that one of the Middle Infielders (Santana, Michael, Goodrum, Polanco) takes a big step forward this year, as we all know the Twins need one of them too...

[nicksaviking]

Just wondering if Chris Colabello is too old to be considered a prospect or if he just doesn't quite make the top 30 because of his attributes. His winter numbers are inspiring.

[Steve Lein]

OK, I LOVE Vargas at #12...that's gutsy. I had people telling me he was not top-20.

 

Vargas is weird. Seems people either see some David Ortiz in him and believe in his power, or they can't get past his inability to catch-up to good fastballs. The 2nd point being the more important one to me considering he's only played low-A ball to this point. The pitching is only going to get better.

[Shane Wahl]

I am proud to say that my list matches Seth's pretty well. He knows way more than I do.

 

Though I am much more "meh" on Hermsen at the moment.

[Shane Wahl]

And, yes, ec, this is the year of the middle infielder for me too. I wrote something awhile ago about the "Slim Shady" effect in the Twins system and wondering if the real SS will stand up. I like that it could be a guy called "Niko."

[gunnarthor]

Good list. Obviously people might quibble with it a bit - I think May is too low - but when I look at Twins lists now, what I'm really happy with is the depth. This group looks a lot better than the lists we had a few years back which had Valencia, Morales, Swarzak and Hughes. We now have some really intriguing names outside the top 10 that could really develop - Harrison, Bard - as well as some near ML ready depth in guys like Hernandez and Benson. And a lot of bullpen arms.

[Mike Sixel]

Thanks for the update Seth. A good read, with nice upside in the prospects.

[righty8383]

One more thing..I dont see how A. Salcedo can be ranked ahead of ANY other pitcher in the system...production matters to me.

 

I was agreeing with your points until this one. I'm not all that high on him but his ranking seems right to me. He may be higher if he hadn't suffered injuries last year and only pithced 30 innings. Before last year he WAS quite productive.

 

I'm sure you weren't trying to come off this way, but sometimes when you talk about prospects you have this "what have you done for me lately" (good or bad) type attitute.. Which is the LAST way one should asses a prospect. Not trying to rip you becuase I like reading your thoughts. Just saying...

[roger]

Good list Seth. Like everyone else, I would probably move a few guys around a bit. But your list is as good as anyones. I would probably have included one or two of the GCL pitchers in a top 30. The only problem is, which one or two of the ten who were awesome last year?

 

Bonnie checked my facebook account this morning and saw it is a bit cold on the border, eh? Was 79 here in Palm Desert yesterday. Will be here thru mid February.

[mnfanforlife]

Just wondering if Chris Colabello is too old to be considered a prospect or if he just doesn't quite make the top 30 because of his attributes. His winter numbers are inspiring.

 

Dang right. I have him at #20. dont care how old he is...he PRODUCES!

[mnfanforlife]

Vargas is weird. Seems people either see some David Ortiz in him and believe in his power, or they can't get past his inability to catch-up to good fastballs. The 2nd point being the more important one to me considering he's only played low-A ball to this point. The pitching is only going to get better.

 

Well he is already 22, but he projected to OUT-HOMER Sano if he had played the full season. Can't see how he isn't going to be successful moving to A+ with other MLB-caliber hitters in Rosario and Sano.

[mnfanforlife]

I was agreeing with your points until this one. I'm not all that high on him but his ranking seems right to me. He may be higher if he hadn't suffered injuries last year and only pithced 30 innings. Before last year he WAS quite productive.

 

I'm sure you weren't trying to come off this way, but sometimes when you talk about prospects you have this "what have you done for me lately" (good or bad) type attitute.. Which is the LAST way one should asses a prospect. Not trying to rip you becuase I like reading your thoughts. Just saying...

 

Cool, I see why we should not give up on anyone. But can we at least drop him from our list until he produces, then immediately put him in an appropriate spot?

[Seth Stohs]

What happens if Benson rebounds back into form, Roberts continues getting on base a ton, and Walker learns how to not strike out so much as they rise through the levels? We have so many outfield prospects, most with pretty high upside. Realistically all won't make it, but even so it's hard to imagine we won't find 3 really good ones out of that bunch to roam our outfield for years.

 

Sounds like a pretty good scenario to me... With any prospect list or minor league system, some of the prospects make it, many don't . Having more good prospects increases the likelihood that more make it.

[Seth Stohs]

OK, I LOVE Vargas at #12...that's gutsy. I had people telling me he was not top-20.

 

But, why can't we expect Jorge Polanco to hit well as he advances?? Just your opinion?

 

Zachary Jones is NOT in your top-30?? Whoa...he is gonna impress you this year. You'll be like, "what was I thinking dissing Jones?" In my opinion, Jones is better than your 25-30.

 

Regarding Polanco, and well, every prospect, it is just my opinion. ET stats are always interesting. He could move up a lot on this list if he hits in the Midwest League.

 

Regarding Jones, I really like him. I think that if he gains some control, he could move up. I have always admitted that I tend to rank relievers lower than starters. Reasoning? Because a #3 or #4 starter is going to potentially work 170-200 innings. A top 7th inning reliever is going to pitch 65-70 innings a year. Also, why would I rank Jones ahead of Chargois? If the Twins drafted Chargois in the 2nd round and Jones in the 4th round, do we have enough information yet to put Jones ahead? I really, really like Jones and his 100 mph fastball, but let's see how he does in 2013.

[Seth Stohs]

Ortiz does not belong in the top-30. I mean, you didn't include Tyler Duffey, Josmil Pinto, DJ Baxendale, AJ Achter, Zach Jones, Corey Williams, etc. But DID include Ortiz? Ortiz probably won't ever make it out of AA, but he's a top-30 guy for you?

 

Obviously any prospect ranking is going to be an individual thing, so I encourage people to do their Top 30s as well. I like Ortiz. I think he can hit well. I think he gets lost behind some of the bigger prospects, but I think he is quite talented. How he fits into the future of the Twins doesn't affect my ranking. He's behind quite a few other OF prospects, so who knwos what will happen.

 

Let's see how Duffey and Baxendale do when they make the move to the starter role in 2013. Hopefully they're terrific. Achter had a tremendous season as a 24 year old in Beloit and Ft. Myers, and we'll see how he does as he moves forward. Corey Williams has good stuff, but if performance is what you look at, he didn't exactly have a strong year in Beloit.

[Seth Stohs]

One more thing..I dont see how A. Salcedo can be ranked ahead of ANY other pitcher in the system...production matters to me.

 

Well, he was a clear Top 10-12 prospect coming into the year, so after a year full of injury, I don't think I should have dropped him as far as I did. He's got a chance to be good, but I'm alarmed more that he didn't have surgery in 2012 than if he would have.

[Seth Stohs]

Just wondering if Chris Colabello is too old to be considered a prospect or if he just doesn't quite make the top 30 because of his attributes. His winter numbers are inspiring.

 

He is considered a "prospect" by my definition, which is basically "eligible for Rookie of the Year in the big leagues." But age is certainly a factor in prospect rankings, and he isn't close to the Top 30 for me, but that doesn't mean he can't come up and be a solid bench bat for a couple of years. I'd love to see that!