ESPN: Twins Optimal Year Of Contention is 2016

[LaBombo]

. Fix the damn rotation to an about average rotation and you've got a contender in the AL central at least. .

 

I think that single bizarre sentence defines the incoherence of the homerific clan on this board better than any other slice of crazy I've read.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm optimistic about that, no doubt. My point is that it isn't so lopsided as Brock was making it out. Bear in mind that the production we got from Koskie/Hunter also came with excellent defense at valuable positions. Morneau is a 1B and Mauer is a part-time catcher now, so to me it's close. I may lean Morneau/Mauer, but I think it's closer than people remember.

 

Except that you said "best case" scenario. A best case scenario is that Hicks and Parmelee put up the Koskie/Hunter production while Plouffe covers Mientkiewicz's production. Not likely but not impossible, either. Hunter only had an OPS+ of 102 in 2001.

 

The 2001 Twins didn't have anyone who could put up anything close to a 140 OPS+ season. If Mauer stays healthy, he's close to a lock to do it. If Morneau rebounds at all, he should easily clear 120 OPS+ (he posted a 113 OPS+ in 2012, IIRC) and could approach 130 or better with a solid season. The 2001 Twins didn't have a Willingham or Doumit on the roster, either.

 

Again, I'm not arguing the payroll point at all, merely the timeline. If things break right for the Twins, they'll be competitive in 2013 or 2014, not 2016.

[TheLeviathan]

Except that you said "best case" scenario. A best case scenario is that Hicks and Parmelee put up the Koskie/Hunter production. Not likely but not impossible, either. Hunter only had an OPS+ of 102 in 2001.

 

C'mon. If you want to interpret things that way then you might as well cite MVP Butera blowing A.J. out of the water too by 2015. Your point continues to be that the Twins in 2015 have a much better core to build around and my point is that core is unlikely to so overly outproduce 2001 that the comparison is pretty meaningful. The problem with your argument is that you believe two guys can carry an offense. At this point we have blackholes all over this club that aren't getting filled anytime soon. There is no one on the horizon that is even going to give this team Guzman until probably late 2014. Which means 2015 is a far more reasonable target as those guys are rookies. So 2015 breaking through as a near 90 win team with a bunch of rookies feels pretty best-case to me. People are counting far, far too many chickens before they've hatched.

 

Most of the group we expect to be helping us long term won't even arrive until 2014 at best. Expecting us to have a fairly deep club (like 2001) composed of rookies in 2015 that pushes for the playoffs is a scenario I like to believe can happen, but feels pretty damn rosey to me.

[TheLeviathan]

I think if Ryan adds to the payroll it will be by extending players he trades for rather than signings through FA. If enough of our prospects work out, I am hopeful of him trading away some of it for a couple of solid regulars that a team that is looking to rebuild wants to dump. Examples this year might be Annibal Sanchez, Wandy Rodriguez, Blanton, Dempster ... I think TR would be more willing to sign one of those guys if he's already traded for him and had a chance to see him with the team for part of a season. Keep in mind I said "hopeful" he might do this, not that I expect it.

 

When has Ryan ever shown a penchant for making big trades like that for established, veteran players? Again, that's part of the issue here. We've had a long track record for Ryan and it shows him as being supremely gun shy and reliant upon strong organizational development. I'm skeptical about this break in character just like others that have been suggested in this thread. Which is why I'm skeptical about payroll going forward.

[Brock Beauchamp]

C'mon. If you want to interpret things that way then you might as well cite MVP Butera blowing A.J. out of the water too by 2015. Your point continues to be that the Twins in 2015 have a much better core to build around and my point is that core is unlikely to so overly outproduce 2001 that the comparison is pretty meaningful. The problem with your argument is that you believe two guys can carry an offense. At this point we have blackholes all over this club that aren't getting filled anytime soon. There is no one on the horizon that is even going to give this team Guzman until probably late 2014. Which means 2015 is a far more reasonable target as those guys are rookies. So 2015 breaking through as a near 90 win team with a bunch of rookies feels pretty best-case to me. People are counting far, far too many chickens before they've hatched.

 

Most of the group we expect to be helping us long term won't even arrive until 2014 at best. Expecting us to have a fairly deep club (like 2001) composed of rookies in 2015 that pushes for the playoffs is a scenario I like to believe can happen, but feels pretty damn rosey to me.

 

No, two guys can't carry an offense. Thankfully, the Twins have four veterans who can post an OPS between 110-140+ (the 2001 squad had four of those guys, period). They have enigmas in Plouffe and Parmelee. They have guys who can help in 2013 in Hicks and Arcia. They have a couple of wildcards in Gibson and Hendriks. Again, you said "best case". The best case is that 3-4 of those guys click in 2013 and the Twins post an 80+ win season. Likely, no. Possible, absolutely.

 

The 2001 team only won 85 games. The team had a lot of potential but the on-field product was just a little north of mediocre.

[twinsnorth49]

Cute, I don't deny this group is a minority, but it's a vocal one. And it's one of the most obnoxious things about sports - that fan that believes that if you're down 19-1 with two outs in the ninth and you aren't doing the "we're still going to win this one!" dance you somehow are disqualified from fandom.

 

Sometimes being a fan means being passionate about your disappointment too. I'm excited about the team's future, but I'm very skeptical about their willingness to go outside the organization for meaningful help.

 

 

Well there's exhibit A on your penchant for exaggeration, I'm not saying that. I think it's the contrary, you, however rightfully so you might be, are very skeptical about Ryan changing his past patterns on bringing in outside players, but if someone chooses to have a more wait and see attitude they are relentlessly mocked for being a homer fanboy with no concept of reality. That's just as offensive.

 

I've expressed lots of disappointment in some of the things Ryan and the team has done or not done, I just don't get too caught up in being disappointed about things he hasn't done 2 or 3 years from now.

[ThePuck]

So how many years in a row did the payroll go up? 1999it was 16.4 million, had a dip after Hunter and Santana were gone, and proceded to go up until the 2011 season. So thus the team has not always cut payroll. So using your line that if a team has acted in a certain way, you would expect them to act the same way. After 2008, they attempted to add talent in Joe Crede, Orlando Cabrerra. Payroll went up. Next year they resigned Pavano

 

Years payroll went down from previous years since '99: '00, '04, '08, '12, '13. (Source: USA Today's Salaries Databases for MLB).

 

Right now, when accounting for standard inflation, we're at '07 payroll. Of course, players payrolls haven't gone up by standard inflation rates...

 

Just giving information.

[old nurse]

The 1999 example is poor because they would have been hard-pressed to spend less on a team in 2000 without fielding less than 25 men on the roster. Ditto for the following few years, when virtually the entire team were still indentured servants.

You totally missed wise guy's point. The claim that the payroll is going down is what the Twins have always done is as full of holes as can be. As Ryan built the team. The payroll grew. That is fact.

Players indentured servants? Then, as now, the minimum salary and the ability to make more through arbitration makes the thought of a player being indentured rather funny. The indentured servant Delmon Young made over 18 million dollars before getting the opportunity for "fair market value". Personally I think they all should be free agents after 4 years but only able to sign one year contracts.

[old nurse]

Years payroll went down from previous years since '99: '00, '04, '08, '12, '13. (Source: USA Today's Salaries Databases for MLB).

 

Right now, when accounting for standard inflation, we're at '07 payroll. Of course, players payrolls haven't gone up by standard inflation rates...

 

Just giving information.

If you were associating baseball salaries to what is happening in the real world shouldn't you be comparing baseball salary increase to the general rate of growth for other jobs in this economy?

[ThePuck]

If you were associating baseball salaries to what is happening in the real world shouldn't you be comparing baseball salary increase to the general rate of growth for other jobs in this economy?

 

I was talking about the spending power of 71M ('07 Twins payroll) now equates to the spending power of just under 80M today (current Twins salary of '13) on just standard US inflation.

 

If you wanna look at the difference in MLB pay. MLB minimumm in 2007 was 380K, to 480K in '12. MLB average pay went from $2,824,751 in '07, to 3,213,479.

 

So, if you had a team of 25 getting paid league average in 2007, you'd sit at 70.6M. If you had a team of 25 getting paid league average in 2012, you'd have just over 80M. We were over that 80M last year, but we're under that this year so far.

 

Since league average pay has gone up every year since 2007 (on an average of 77K a year), we're looking at league average for 2013 at about 82M. We're at just under 80M. That means we've dropped below our 2007 spending since the Twins were paying their team slightly above league average in '07 and and are now paying below even 2012 league average.

[old nurse]

I was talking about

.

"Right now, when accounting for standard inflation, we're at '07 payroll. Of course, players payrolls haven't gone up by standard inflation rates..."

 

Nice change of what you originally said. The second comment in this thread of comments/retorts still stands true.

[ThePuck]

"Right now, when accounting for standard inflation, we're at '07 payroll. Of course, players payrolls haven't gone up by standard inflation rates..."

 

Nice change of what you originally said. The second comment in this thread of comments/retorts still stands true.

 

what are you talking about? I didn't change anything.

 

I originally wrote:

 

'Right now, when accounting for standard inflation, we're at '07 payroll. Of course, players payrolls haven't gone up by standard inflation rates...'

 

 

'I was talking about the spending power of 71M ('07 Twins payroll) now equates to the spending power of just under 80M today (current Twins salary of '13) on just standard US inflation.'

 

Same thing..worded differently

[FrodaddyG]

what are you talking about? I didn't change anything.

 

I originally wrote:

 

'Right now, when accounting for standard inflation, we're at '07 payroll. Of course, players payrolls haven't gone up by standard inflation rates...'

 

 

'I was talking about the spending power of 71M ('07 Twins payroll) now equates to the spending power of just under 80M today (current Twins salary of '13) on just standard US inflation.'

 

Same thing..worded differently

Don't bother. He'll just eventually feign outrage and claim personal insult. Standard operating procedure.

[Ultima Ratio]

I think that single bizarre sentence defines the incoherence of the homerific clan on this board better than any other slice of crazy I've read.

 

The fact that you think I'm a homer shows that your are illiterate on this board. Second, I'll stand by what I said and ask you to point out the crazy. The rotation was virtually dead last in every meaningful category last year. The Al central is one -- if not thee -- least competitive divisions in baseball. An average rotation, like those in the late 2000s, instantly makes this team much better and competitive in the central. So crazy.

[LaBombo]

The fact that you think I'm a homer shows that your are illiterate on this board. Second, I'll stand by what I said and ask you to point out the crazy. The rotation was virtually dead last in every meaningful category last year. The Al central is one -- if not thee -- least competitive divisions in baseball. An average rotation, like those in the late 2000s, instantly makes this team much better and competitive in the central. So crazy.

 

Self-administered homer test: Where would Scott Diamond slot into the Tigers rotation? If you think that the guy many people figure to be our best pitcher in 2013 (unless Worley is healthy all year) would manage to make even the 5th spot in the Tigers' rotation, you are officially a homer.

 

If not, you're admitting that the Tigers rotation is going to be a hell of a lot better than ours, whether we improve to average or not. The Tigers were 3rd in the AL in ERA last year without full seasons from Sanchez or Fister. Their 5th starter, Smyly, had an ERA under 4, and it was the sustainable kind, not the Diamond kind.

 

So we're not going to be competitive with their pitching. How about offense? They scored only 25 more runs than the Twins last year, so it's a virtual dead heat in 2013, right? Yeah, well, no. The Tigers replaced one of the worst outfielders in baseball with one of the best. They got almost nothing from their DH spot last year, and are getting VMart back to fill that void. Avila has a good chance to return to All Star form. Do you think the Tigers' offense will be better, or worse?

 

The Twins traded away their third-best hitter and his most capable replacement. The manager is hoping that a kid with fewer than 500 AB's above A ball will win the CF job out of spring training. They finished 5th lowest in AL runs scored despite career years from Willingham and Doumit, who will be 34 and 32 respectively when the season starts. So our offense is going to be better than the Tigers' how exactly?

 

The Tigers improved an above-AL-average offense and have one of the top rotations in all of baseball. The Twins have weakened one of the worst offenses in the AL and Terry Ryan's "pretty darn good" pitcher chase netted us Kevin Correia, who lost his spot in the Pirates rotation. If you think a league-average rotation will make the Twins competitive with the Tigers, you're either a huge homer or you're seeing things completely differently. Which is it?

[lightfoot789]

Look at the Rangers rotation and Offense and Look at the Angels rotation and offense in 2012 - The A's won the West. Not in your wildest dreams would you have thought that. But it happened. That's why you play the games. Things on paper sometimes get shreaded. We probably won't win the Central, but we may surprise alot of folks with some quality wins. Games are about match ups and your #1 might frequently meet an oppoisng teams #4 or #5. Let's pray that happens. Match ups

[TheLeviathan]

Well there's exhibit A on your penchant for exaggeration, I'm not saying that.

 

Never said you did. I wasn't talking about you when I said it, which was pretty clear. I'm not mocking anyone's optimism for a few years from now. I'm mocking the use of "baseless" to over-the-top belittle a point of view.

[TheLeviathan]

The 2001 team only won 85 games. The team had a lot of potential but the on-field product was just a little north of mediocre.

 

Brock, I get where you're caught up on best-case scenario, that was probably not the right phrasing. In any case, given the direction this team is heading it is perfectly reasonable to think we have a few more years of losing. Unless you're working under a different time-table of prospect development than me, 2015 is likely to be rookie seasons for many of our key young prospects. Given that 3 years from now is hard to predict about a catcher and a dizzy first-baseman, I just see the next few years as very much 1999-2001 with 2001 being 2016 in this case. Maybe that time-table gets bumped sooner, but I think that's a lot of unhatched chicken counting personally.

[Ultima Ratio]

Self-administered homer test: Where would Scott Diamond slot into the Tigers rotation? If you think that the guy many people figure to be our best pitcher in 2013 (unless Worley is healthy all year) would manage to make even the 5th spot in the Tigers' rotation, you are officially a homer.

 

If not, you're admitting that the Tigers rotation is going to be a hell of a lot better than ours, whether we improve to average or not. The Tigers were 3rd in the AL in ERA last year without full seasons from Sanchez or Fister. Their 5th starter, Smyly, had an ERA under 4, and it was the sustainable kind, not the Diamond kind.

 

So we're not going to be competitive with their pitching. How about offense? They scored only 25 more runs than the Twins last year, so it's a virtual dead heat in 2013, right? Yeah, well, no. The Tigers replaced one of the worst outfielders in baseball with one of the best. They got almost nothing from their DH spot last year, and are getting VMart back to fill that void. Avila has a good chance to return to All Star form. Do you think the Tigers' offense will be better, or worse?

 

The Twins traded away their third-best hitter and his most capable replacement. The manager is hoping that a kid with fewer than 500 AB's above A ball will win the CF job out of spring training. They finished 5th lowest in AL runs scored despite career years from Willingham and Doumit, who will be 34 and 32 respectively when the season starts. So our offense is going to be better than the Tigers' how exactly?

 

The Tigers improved an above-AL-average offense and have one of the top rotations in all of baseball. The Twins have weakened one of the worst offenses in the AL and Terry Ryan's "pretty darn good" pitcher chase netted us Kevin Correia, who lost his spot in the Pirates rotation. If you think a league-average rotation will make the Twins competitive with the Tigers, you're either a huge homer or you're seeing things completely differently. Which is it?

 

You've skillfully maneuvered me into a corner. I am the biggest homer, ever.

 

I've said up and down on the these boards how we should have given Correia a third year, that we should save the money on top-tier FA pitching and pocket it. That we'll actually be better in the long run by significantly reducing payroll, that Escobar, Mastro, and Carroll will be great up the middle, that I trust Terry Ryan's decisions and his refreshingly honest and candid interaction with fans, and that anyone who disagrees with me is a cynical boob.

 

"We're gonna win Twins, we're gonna..." -- head in the sky, skipping and singing into the burned orange sunset.

[LaBombo]

You've skillfully maneuvered me into a corner. I am the biggest homer, ever.

 

I've said up and down on the these boards how we should have given Correia a third year, that we should save the money on top-tier FA pitching and pocket it. That we'll actually be better in the long run by significantly reducing payroll, that Escobar, Mastro, and Carroll will be great up the middle, that I trust Terry Ryan's decisions and his refreshingly honest and candid interaction with fans, and that anyone who disagrees with me is a cynical boob.

 

"We're gonna win Twins, we're gonna..." -- head in the sky, skipping and singing into the burned orange sunset.

 

I take it by your sarcasm that you are either unwilling or unable to explain your very optimistic assessment that a league-average rotation would make the Twins contenders in the division.

[Ultima Ratio]

I take it by your sarcasm that you are either unwilling or unable to explain your utterly absurd notion that a league-average rotation would make the Twins contenders in the division.

 

Why would I want to debate someone whose chosen to avoid the context of my post in response to another post supporting the notion that the Twins ought to have gotten some top-tier pitching and will be kicking themselves if they are somewhere around .500 and other teams, even the divined Tigers, have injuries which may make the Twins competitive. If your intent was serious debate you would have looked at the spirit/thrust of my comment and the post I was responding to -- it was that the Twins should have done more, and in such a typically weak division (yes, there are other teams beside the Tigers whom the Twins get to play) and with a much improved rotation and core players producing at a hight level -- that it's possible to be competitive. I'm well aware that the Tigers are currently a great deal better than the Twins. Let me try now. Are you saying that unless the Twins get Five Aces they can't be competitive? [[insert gratuitous snipe about pessimistic dolts]]

 

If you wanted to have an honest and serious debate you might say: well, it was wrong to put your position into a false dilemma between being the biggest homer or completely ignorant. I'd say the rotation would have to be ranked _____ to be competitive.

 

Let's see if you can manage that.

[AlwaysinModeration]

This thread was alternately interesting and painful.

 

Along the lines of the original question...if the Twins optimal contention year will be 2016 (which seems reasonable to me, when most of the considerable talent they have in the farm will be contributing in the bigs)...here is my question:

 

Given the players currently in the system today, which starting lineup and rotation would win the most games in 2013? Ignore the minors progressions and service time. Would Meyer and Berrios be in the starting lineup? Would Rosario be the starting 2B? Would Buxton out produce Hicks or Benson or Mastro?

[LaBombo]

There is no context in which your claim that the Twins could contend for the division title with no more than an average rotation is credible. If you felt I was wrong to attempt to evaluate your motivation for making that claim, sorry. Doesn't change the fact that the Twins are much further from relevance than you either realize or are portraying them as. They're clearly not planning on going anywhere this year, at the very least.

 

On the other hand, I'm not so sure that they really have to wait until 2016. If players like Sano are really going to be special, they should be good enough to help in the majors by 2015. If they're not, I don't know if they'll make up a special enough nucleus to build a contender around. Mauer's continued ability to play catcher, all by itself, makes projecting that far ahead pretty hazy, imo.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Brock, I get where you're caught up on best-case scenario, that was probably not the right phrasing. In any case, given the direction this team is heading it is perfectly reasonable to think we have a few more years of losing. Unless you're working under a different time-table of prospect development than me, 2015 is likely to be rookie seasons for many of our key young prospects. Given that 3 years from now is hard to predict about a catcher and a dizzy first-baseman, I just see the next few years as very much 1999-2001 with 2001 being 2016 in this case. Maybe that time-table gets bumped sooner, but I think that's a lot of unhatched chicken counting personally.

 

I don't disagree with any of that. The team can be better earlier but it will require some luck and/or money.

[Nick Nelson]

I take it by your sarcasm that you are either unwilling or unable to explain your very optimistic assessment that a league-average rotation would make the Twins contenders in the division.

Things don't always work out for a team that looks great on paper at the beginning of a season. The Marlins and Red Sox are fine recent examples. And the Twins have been contenders in the AL Central with mediocre rotations as recently as 3-4 years ago. There was nothing absurdly homerish about what he said. I guess I'm missing the post where he stated the Twins would suddenly become division favorites with an average pitching staff.

[ThePuck]

Things don't always work out for a team that looks great on paper at the beginning of a season. The Marlins and Red Sox are fine recent examples. And the Twins have been contenders in the AL Central with mediocre rotations as recently as 3-4 years ago. There was nothing absurdly homerish about what he said. I guess I'm missing the post where he stated the Twins would suddenly become division favorites with an average pitching staff.

 

2009 is an example...but they also had a strong defensive team, and a strong offensive team. We don't have either of those now.

[LaBombo]

I guess I'm missing the post where he stated the Twins would suddenly become division favorites with an average pitching staff.

 

He didn't, and I didn't say he did. Instead, he said this: "Fix the damn rotation to an about average rotation and you've got a contender in the AL central at least." He's had every opportunity to provide a non-plane crash scenario where that happens. Nothing so far.

 

As for the rest, your memory might be a tiny bit off. The Twins had the 5th best rotation ERA in the AL in 2010. They were in fact below average in 2009, but they also scored the 4th most runs in the AL, a feat that seems extremely unlikely to be duplicated or approached this year after finishing 10th in that category in 2012 and trading away Span and Revere. So no valid comp from either of those to 2013.

 

In any case, I think the Tigers of 2013 are looking stronger than any divisional opponent from those two seasons. They replaced their worst everyday player with the 3rd highest 2012 AL outfield WAR. They get VMart back to DH after posting the 3rd-worst DH OPS in the American League last year. They have 4 of the 15 highest 2012 WAR scores on their roster, and if Avila is back to 2011 form, it could easily be 5. They'll have a full season of Sanchez. Fister is healthy and was terrific in the second half last year, as was Scherzer.

 

If there's a reason not to see the Tigers as pretty clear favorites to repeat as division champs, I'm missing it. And if there is, I'm betting it's not that the Twins upgraded their rotation to "average".

[Nick Nelson]

Yes, I agree that the Tigers are favorites on paper. That means no one in the division should try? The Twins should just submit and say, "Well, maybe in three years we'll have a better team than you"? What kind of attitude is that?

 

People were saying the same things about the Tigers last year when they signed Prince. They ended up winning 88 games and barely taking the division, despite having a Triple Crown MVP. I hate to invoke such a hackneyed phrase, but the game ain't played on paper.

[Ultima Ratio]

Originally Posted by

Nick Nelson

I guess I'm missing the post where he stated the Twins would suddenly become division favorites with an average pitching staff.

LaBombo

He didn't, and I didn't say he did

 

Then why do you keep arguing as if I did:

 

LaBombo

If there's a reason not to see the Tigers as pretty clear favorites to repeat as division champs, I'm missing it. And if there is, I'm betting it's not that the Twins upgraded their rotation to "average".

 

Even after you admit that I've never claimed the Twins will be favorites if they had upgraded to an average rotation, you turn right around and act as though I am saying that.

 

I now understand why you think I'm a homer, you insist that I'm saying something that I'm not, even after you've agreed that I'm not saying it.

 

This is the reason for my sarcastic response to you. You won't and can't get it right. What good would come from arguing with someone like this? What good has it done?

[DelawareTwinsFan]

We can't contend for a championship until the core group is close to their prime years. Interesting and fun is one thing but ultimately, Sano, Rosario, Meyer, May, Gibson, Nate Roberts, Levi Micheal, and Arcia will reach their potential around 2016-17 while being serviceable in 2015. They will need to push a few like Buxton and Berrios ahead of their timetable to get them all to peak similarly. Parmalee and Arcia will get there around 2014 or 2015 joining Mauer and possibly guys like Dozier and Plouffe (if they reach their ceiling) to form a potentially potent core that might get them into contention once again. Without pitchers other than Diamond could quickly derail that revival. Also, they ought to scour the college ranks for middle of the rotation arms for this years draft hopefully spending only 2-3 years in the minors.

 

To actually contend for an AL Central championship, I believe the Twins will always have a chance.