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Anibal looking for 6/90

Willihammer

By Willihammer
in Minnesota Twins Talk

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gunnarthor MVP

gunnarthor

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

I really want Sanchez so I'd do it but no one is ever going to be dumb enough to make me a GM. If Sanchez breaks down like Santana did, it'll be a horrible deal.

Twins Twerp Draft Eligible

Twins Twerp

Provisional Member
Posted
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Haha, 6 years. You lost me at and TR at multiple years. I could see going 3-4 years for a pitcher in free agency, but six is stupid. I don't think anyone, except a hometown hero who plays a premium position and is a sure fire hall of famer, is worth 6 years. Especially with the frequency of Tommy John surgeries nowadays.

kab21 FCL Twins

kab21

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

I think Anibal is going to be the 2nd highest paid pitcher this offseason. I have him pegged at around CJ Wilson's contract last year (5/75) so this isn't surprising. And I had already crossed him off my wishlist.

Brock Beauchamp GOAT

Brock Beauchamp

Site Manager
Posted
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I think Anibal is going to be the 2nd highest paid pitcher this offseason. I have him pegged at around CJ Wilson's contract last year (5/75) so this isn't surprising. And I had already crossed him off my wishlist.

 

Yep, I had pretty much crossed him off. He hasn't proven enough in the AL to warrant even five years, in my opinion. At least Wilson had years under his belt of pitching half his games in Arlington and against American League offenses.

John Bonnes MVP

John Bonnes

Site Manager
Posted
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I feel a little bad about our estimate in the Handbook right now, which is quite a bit lower. But the reason it was lower is interesting, especially given this report...

 

It's because the initial writeup of him was done at the end of August. And at that point, his time with the Tigers was a big question mark. He really struggled early with them, his numbers were down, and initially we wondered if he wouldn't need to sign a "make good" deal to show he was healthy or could pitch in the AL. Then he finished strong, seemingly answered those questions and became everyone's darling. We revised our estimate when the season was over, but it still weighed down the number a little bit.

 

I just think it's interesting that a small number of starts - just eight - can change the paradigm or story, and suddenly the guy is guaranteed tens of millions of more dollars. Teams really are fishing in the dark on a lot of this stuff.

sorney College Ball

sorney

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
I feel a little bad about our estimate in the Handbook right now, which is quite a bit lower. But the reason it was lower is interesting, especially given this report...

 

It's because the initial writeup of him was done at the end of August. And at that point, his time with the Tigers was a big question mark. He really struggled early with them, his numbers were down, and initially we wondered if he wouldn't need to sign a "make good" deal to show he was healthy or could pitch in the AL. Then he finished strong, seemingly answered those questions and became everyone's darling. We revised our estimate when the season was over, but it still weighed down the number a little bit.

 

I just think it's interesting that a small number of starts - just eight - can change the paradigm or story, and suddenly the guy is guaranteed tens of millions of more dollars. Teams really are fishing in the dark on a lot of this stuff.

 

 

This probably shows why quality pitchers are such a scarce commodity....8 starts and GM's are drooling over themselves.

iastfan112 College Ball

iastfan112

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Worth mention it's what he's looking for, not necessarily what he'll get, Edwin Jackson wanted a multiyear deal last year and no one sprang for that. I see teams shying away from offering that many years with his injury history. The 15 million per year wouldn't surprise me at all but I see a 4 year deal as much more likely, perhaps an option for a 5th year.

minn55441 Draft Eligible

minn55441

Provisional Member
Posted
Posted

I guess he wanted to start his opening negotiation price a little on the high side. I can't imagine a team offering even close to that in years or dollars.

kab21 FCL Twins

kab21

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
This probably shows why quality pitchers are such a scarce commodity....8 starts and GM's are drooling over themselves.

 

I think the reverse is true. Some were pointing to his early struggles as a reason that he wouldn't be successful. Both are small sample size. The fact is that he's been good (not great) and he hasn't missed a start in 3.5 yrs. He's also the youngest FA pitcher available this offseason. the only argument that people really have is this AL/NL thing and I think people completely blow that out of proportion.

Thrylos St Paul Saints

Thrylos

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
the only argument that people really have is this AL/NL thing and I think people completely blow that out of proportion.

 

ok. Any evidence to suggest that NL pitchers can be as successful in the AL?

I can throw over a slew for the other way. Mater of fact, when I am trying to evaluate NL performance for SPs and try to translate it to AL performance, I start with a factor of about 1.2 for most metrics...

beckmt FCL Twins

beckmt

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

If he gets 6 years for 90 this market is out of whack. 3 - 4 years is the max I would pay for a pitcher that rates to be a #2 or #3 starter. It may be that $15 mil a year may be standard.

kab21 FCL Twins

kab21

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
the only argument that people really have is this AL/NL thing and I think people completely blow that out of proportion.

 

ok. Any evidence to suggest that NL pitchers can be as successful in the AL?

I can throw over a slew for the other way. Mater of fact, when I am trying to evaluate NL performance for SPs and try to translate it to AL performance, I start with a factor of about 1.2 for most metrics...

 

Yeah I remember your adjustments. it was something like subtract 1.5 K/9 and add 1 BB/9. There should be an adjustment but these numbers are completely ridiculous. NL pitchers don't become pumpkins when they move over to the AL and AL pitchers don't become aces when they do it.

Guest USAFChief

Guest USAFChief

Guests
Posted
Posted

The difference between pitching in the AL and pitching in the NL is the designated hitter.

 

One out of roughly every 9 hitters is different. Instead of pitching to a pitcher, you're pitching to an actual hitter. In some cases, a very good hitter. (It's not actually 1 of every 9, since sometimes the pitcher is pinch hit for in the NL, making the difference a little less that 1 in 9.)

 

If you look at history, it works out to something around 0.25 of ERA, although the gap has been trending down for a while now.

 

It's a factor, but not that much of one. And in any case, since we're talking about different run environments in the different leagues, how a pitcher compares to the other pitchers in his own league is way more important than how he compares to pitchers in the other league.

 

On average, every pitcher will give up more runs in the AL than if he were in the NL. It doesn't matter, since you're only trying to beat the teams in your own league for a playoff spot, and their pitchers will be pitching against mostly AL teams as well. What matters is how a pitcher compares to the pitchers in his own league.

 

Add a quarter of a run to a guys ERA if he's coming over from the NL as some sort of "close enough WAG", and then decide what that's worth.

iastfan112 College Ball

iastfan112

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Without researching it, the number seems like it'd be higher than .25 runs. But I don't think it's enough to make or break a guy like Sanchez. League doesn't matter; the guy is simply not worth that kind of money.

 

15 million per year isn't that outrageous, he's been roughly 4 win player for the past 3 years and is under the age of 30 so aging isn't a huge factor. However, I don't see 6 years happening f non ace, much less a guy with Sanchez's injury history.

kab21 FCL Twins

kab21

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Without researching it, the number seems like it'd be higher than .25 runs. But I don't think it's enough to make or break a guy like Sanchez. League doesn't matter; the guy is simply not worth that kind of money.

 

The main takeaway assuming you are talking about the overall dollars due to 6 years. In the best case he'll earn the contract but most likely he'll disappoint.

johnnydakota Draft Eligible

johnnydakota

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

you remembering to factor in salary inflation?and remember we are paying blackburn 5.5 not to pitch?but totaly agree that its the lenght of the contract maybe needs to be 4 years with vesting for year 5 and 6? but signing sanchez and trading for shields is a great start to building a rotation if you ask me

Guest USAFChief

Guest USAFChief

Guests
Posted
Posted
Without researching it, the number seems like it'd be higher than .25 runs. But I don't think it's enough to make or break a guy like Sanchez. League doesn't matter; the guy is simply not worth that kind of money.

 

"Worth it" is sort of in the eye of the beholder. It's likely few, if any, FA pitchers will end up actually worth the money, particularly those on the higher end of the ability scale.

 

If "worth that kind of money" is the criteria, then we all need to accept the fact the Twins aren't going to sign anything outside of low risk, low reward scrap heap lotto tickets.

 

I doubt Sanchez is going to get 6 years guaranteed, but if that's the price, either compete in that arena or quit pretending you're interested in exploring all options to improve your rotation. Sanchez would likely be the opening day starter for the Twins in 2013. That's the very definition of improving your rotation.

Brock Beauchamp GOAT

Brock Beauchamp

Site Manager
Posted
Posted
Without researching it, the number seems like it'd be higher than .25 runs. But I don't think it's enough to make or break a guy like Sanchez. League doesn't matter; the guy is simply not worth that kind of money.

 

"Worth it" is sort of in the eye of the beholder. It's likely few, if any, FA pitchers will end up actually worth the money, particularly those on the higher end of the ability scale.

 

If "worth that kind of money" is the criteria, then we all need to accept the fact the Twins aren't going to sign anything outside of low risk, low reward scrap heap lotto tickets.

 

I doubt Sanchez is going to get 6 years guaranteed, but if that's the price, either compete in that arena or quit pretending you're interested in exploring all options to improve your rotation. Sanchez would likely be the opening day starter for the Twins in 2013. That's the very definition of improving your rotation.

 

I guess it wouldn't hurt to throw out a 4/$52m offer but it probably wouldn't get you far.

 

Anything over 4/$60m does too much long term damage to payroll. It doesn't make sense for the Twins to be playing in that arena.

Seth Stohs GOAT

Seth Stohs

Site Manager
Posted
Posted

Anibal Sanchez is the guy I've had a free agent man-crush on for the entire season. As John pointed out, when we put this together, we thought 4 years, $44 million was a good number. I'd be very comfortable with that. Also, he is one of the young free agents, so I would have no problem going to 5 years with him. I'd throw him a 5 year, $55-60 million offer. Dude is terrific. I'd MUCH rather have him than Greinke over the next five years.

kab21 FCL Twins

kab21

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

I guess it wouldn't hurt to throw out a 4/$52m offer but it probably wouldn't get you far.

 

Anything over 4/$60m does too much long term damage to payroll. It doesn't make sense for the Twins to be playing in that arena.

 

If the Twins do that then I'll have to read more about 'how the Twins were interested...'

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