Helfand: “early June start appears out of picture”

[The Wise One]

 

Companies are ramping up production on test kits.

We were told that months ago. It hasn't happened yet. Give it time, the surge will be done. Even if there was a more than enough supply, there is the second phase of the test which is running it. What are the lab capacities, reagents, and actual people to man the machines and prepare the samples. Lab Techs have told me it takes 15 minutes to process a specimen. That time is for specimen prep and data entry and all things involved.  After you overcome that you will start to get the idiot factor in that a negative test means no social distancing as well as every bad behavior returning. More contact, more sickness, see NOLA. and Florida beaches. 

[The Wise One]

 

Take it FWIW. We’re all just guessing.

Sconnie is not guessing. 

[yarnivek1972]

Know what I’m not seeing in this “plan” for games in Arizona?

 

Any mention of minor league baseball.

 

There is no way they can conduct even an abbreviated MLB season without a feeder system of potential replacements available. And they can’t just be sitting around. They would have to be playing.

 

At the bare minimum, I think they would need to carry a 28-30 man MLB roster, possibly with 26 active for a particular game with the rest as a “taxi squad”.

Add to that probably 35-40 AA/AAA players on teams with 25 active for a game. I’m not even sure that would be enough players. Guys get hurt. A lot. Even with 70 guys available, an injury riddled team could find itself short staffed pretty quickly. Then what? Throw some guy into a pro baseball game that hasn’t played in 5 months?

 

Honestly, I think every team would need all affiliates playing. And there is no way that Arizona could host all those games.

[twinkies8791]

well trump thought we would be back to normal come Easter....  LOL

[yarnivek1972]

As for getting back to normal in general and with sports, I’m extremely optimistic about the antibody tests that Mayo rolled out this week. They will be able to identify people who were infected and never showed symptoms. These individuals would almost certainly be immune from reinfection for several months.

 

My personal belief is that when these tests are administered on a large scale, we will discover that there are a LOT more people who have been infected than is currently believed. There is plenty of reason to believe that there were undetected infections in the US as far back as January.

[Nine of twelve]

 

well trump thought we would be back to normal come Easter....  LOL

I would LOL except unfortunately it's not funny. 

[glunn]

 

Honestly, I think every team would need all affiliates playing. And there is no way that Arizona could host all those games.

So now they are talking about half the teams playing in Florida -- https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2886004-report-mlb-considering-realigning-into-florida-arizona-leagues-amid-covid-19?utm_source=cnn.com&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_medium=referral

 

[Tomj14]

 

I would LOL except unfortunately it's not funny. 

The country really has two choices, get everybody back to work (including sports) or completely kill the economy to a state where it is basically UN-recoverable.

Currently we have put tens of millions of people out of work, put a unknown number of business's out of business, caused quite of bit mental health issues, disrupted the food supply chain because farmers aren't going to plant crops to have them rot in the fields until they know it makes sense to plant crops; all while most of the models haven't been correct.

 

We are not seeing high amounts of infections from the workers that are still working in the grocery stores, big box stores and schools (nobody from the school my wife works at has gotten sick yet) plus the Roseland hospital in Chicago says about 30% of the people they are testing already have the antibody.

 

or we can wait for all the tests to come out hide out in our homes and cross our fingers that when this passes there are enough companies left to employ us, but in this case there probably won't be professional sports because nobody will be able to afford to go.

 

 

 

[yarnivek1972]

And still no one talking about minor leagues. I have a hard time believing that these guys are dumb. So, they have to know that a 30 man roster isn’t going to last some teams 4 weeks, let alone 4 months.

 

And of course there is the giant elephant in the room.

 

Let’s say they set all this up and they have 15 MLB teams each with 4 milb teams playing. They manage to find housing, catering, etc for everyone involved. Let’s say we’re talking about 3000 people in Arizona and Florida. All effectively quarantined for 4 months. Every thing is going smooth. Then one day, the truck driver who delivers food to one of the residences gets sick because he also delivers to a senior living center where there is an outbreak. But, of course, he didn’t know that because no one was sick yet. Now, this driver infected the receiving crew. They infect food preparers who infect players. How’s that going to play on the evening news?

[Tomj14]

On another note from an ESPN article - Some 72% of Americans polled said they would not attend if sporting events resumed without a vaccine for the coronavirus.

 

So that puts fans at sporting events some time in 2021 and possibly 2022, since the world population is about 7.8 billion and the US isn't getting the first 330 millions vaccines.

 

On another note, only about 24% of the US population got the H1N1 vaccine and about 12,500 people died in 2009.

[Tomj14]

 

 

And of course there is the giant elephant in the room.

Let’s say they set all this up and they have 15 MLB teams each with 4 milb teams playing. They manage to find housing, catering, etc for everyone involved. Let’s say we’re talking about 3000 people in Arizona and Florida. All effectively quarantined for 4 months. Every thing is going smooth. Then one day, the truck driver who delivers food to one of the residences gets sick because he also delivers to a senior living center where there is an outbreak. But, of course, he didn’t know that because no one was sick yet. Now, this driver infected the receiving crew. They infect food preparers who infect players. How’s that going to play on the evening news?

isn't that is what happening everybody in every city across America right now to the health care workers, first responders, grocery store workers, big box workers and everybody else that leaves their house?

 

They need to tell the old and really the old people with underlying conditions and those with underlying conditions to take care of themselves and be vigilant and the rest of us that more than likely won't even get sick to get out in public and get themselves exposed to this virus and build antibodies.

 

[yarnivek1972]

On another note from an ESPN article - Some 72% of Americans polled said they would not attend if sporting events resumed without a vaccine for the coronavirus.

 

So that puts fans at sporting events some time in 2021 and possibly 2022, since the world population is about 7.8 billion and the US isn't getting the first 330 millions vaccines.

 

On another note, only about 24% of the US population got the H1N1 vaccine and about 12,500 people died in 2009.

The vaccine is being developed on American soil by American labs. Why wouldn’t Americans get it first?

[Tomj14]

 

The vaccine is being developed on American soil by American labs. Why wouldn’t Americans get it first?

OK, lets say the US gets the first 328 million vaccines, when do you think that is going to happen? At the earliest it will be after the 1st of 2021 and that would be an unprecedented, even revolutionary achievement.

and again in my comment above it the US is on lock down for the next 12 months there will be no coming back, and to be honest if the numbers stay the way they are, people are going to be out and about breaking all the rules by the end of the month.

 

 

[thuuuuney]

It really comes down to health. Manfred, along with other executives and big whigs in baseball, have proposed a number of alternatives for baseball this year but look at what other sports are doing. The NBA has a tremendous incentive to finish this year because of how much has already been played and Adam Silver's plan is to wait until things get better to announce the plan.

 

I know they're trying to give us hope and all of us want baseball back but not at the expense of putting lives in jeopardy. One of the proposals I really liked was centered around July 4th being opening day. One that that would bring a cool angle, "America's birthday with America's pastime," and two hopefully by then the U.S. will have done well enough to localize the contagion and hopefully give people a chance to go to the ballpark. A lot yet to be seen though.

[yarnivek1972]

OK, lets say the US gets the first 328 million vaccines, when do you think that is going to happen? At the earliest it will be after the 1st of 2021 and that would be an unprecedented, even revolutionary achievement.

and again in my comment above it the US is on lock down for the next 12 months there will be no coming back, and to be honest if the numbers stay the way they are, people are going to be out and about breaking all the rules by the end of the month.

Like I said above, lots of faith in the antibody testing. If there are already tens of millions of people that have been infected, it changes the landscape drastically. So the key is getting this test to as many as possible asap.

[Tomj14]

 

Like I said above, lots of faith in the antibody testing. If there are already tens of millions of people that have been infected, it changes the landscape drastically. So the key is getting this test to as many as possible asap.

I can agree with that, but we are months away from large scale testing, but on a small scare.

"Those seeking to be tested for the coronavirus line up outside Roseland Community Hospital. A phlebotomist working at Roseland Community Hospital said Thursday that 30% to 50% of patients tested for the coronavirus have antibodies while only around 10% to 20% of those tested have the active virus."

 

and that is enough for me to start getting back to normal.

[yarnivek1972]

I can agree with that, but we are months away from large scale testing, but on a small scare.

"Those seeking to be tested for the coronavirus line up outside Roseland Community Hospital. A phlebotomist working at Roseland Community Hospital said Thursday that 30% to 50% of patients tested for the coronavirus have antibodies while only around 10% to 20% of those tested have the active virus."

 

and that is enough for me to start getting back to normal.

I saw that article too. Problem is what that phlebotomist was talking about is antibodies in general. To be immune from COVID there needs to be COVID antibodies.

 

Mayo was one of the first labs to start those tests, earlier this week. Large scale testing will simply be a matter of acquiring needles and collection tubes. It’s a simple blood test with results available in minutes. But it needs to be at an accredited lab. I doubt that is going to be at a small suburban hospital at this point.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I saw that article too. Problem is what that phlebotomist was talking about is antibodies in general. To be immune from COVID there needs to be COVID antibodies.

 

Mayo was one of the first labs to start those tests, earlier this week. Large scale testing will simply be a matter of acquiring needles and collection tubes. It’s a simple blood test with results available in minutes. But it needs to be at an accredited lab. I doubt that is going to be at a small suburban hospital at this point.

But still, scale. 330 million people in the US alone to test... plus mutations, probably have to test several times per year.

[yarnivek1972]

But still, scale. 330 million people in the US alone to test... plus mutations, probably have to test several times per year.

Not for antibodies. The test will be able to detect the level of antibodies. From that, doctors will be able to determine approximately when one was infected and roughly how long their immunity will last. A period that is typically 6-8 months.

 

Also, they are using patients with high levels of antibodies to harvest plasma to use as a treatment for critically ill patients. It’s an old technique. So far with success, but it also is early in trials.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Not for antibodies. The test will be able to detect the level of antibodies. From that, doctors will be able to determine approximately when one was infected and roughly how long their immunity will last. A period that is typically 6-8 months.

 

Also, they are using patients with high levels of antibodies to harvest plasma to use as a treatment for critically ill patients. It’s an old technique. So far with success, but it also is early in trials.

ok, so you still need to build scale to 500 million to 660 million tests per year in the US...

[Tomj14]

 

I saw that article too. Problem is what that phlebotomist was talking about is antibodies in general. To be immune from COVID there needs to be COVID antibodies.

Mayo was one of the first labs to start those tests, earlier this week. Large scale testing will simply be a matter of acquiring needles and collection tubes. It’s a simple blood test with results available in minutes. But it needs to be at an accredited lab. I doubt that is going to be at a small suburban hospital at this point.

Honest question, at what percentage of the population already having he antibodies are you OK with going back to normal? and if that percentage comes back too low how are we going figure out how to get that percentage higher if everybody is hiding out at home or doing everything they can to not get it?

 

Because lets be honest the vaccine on a large scale is still quite a few months out.

 

Also as Sconnie said you need way more than 1 test per person, because lets say they test 50 million and the number is too low you are going to have to test them again, since most or some percentage of people show no signs.

 

That is the catch 22, wait until the economy is dead or push forward and have a small percentage die.

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Honest question, at what percentage of the population already having he antibodies are you OK with going back to normal? and if that percentage comes back too low how are we going figure out how to get that percentage higher if everybody is hiding out at home or doing everything they can to not get it?

 

Because lets be honest the vaccine on a large scale is still quite a few months out.

 

Also as Sconnie said you need way more than 1 test per person, because lets say they test 50 million and the number is too low you are going to have to test them again, since most or some percentage of people show no signs.

 

That is the catch 22, wait until the economy is dead or push forward and have a small percentage die.

the economy doesn’t have to die to sequester in place, however there will be significant government deficits (debt) and rampant inflation to prop up consumers, businesses and banks with combinations of monetary and fiscal stimulus. Injecting liquidity into banks via printed money and Treasuries (monetary policy via the Fed impacting inflation) and Government backed loans/bailouts/cash payments to businesses and consumers (fiscal policy impacting deficits) will put strain on our debt repayment and inflation.

 

As long as the Fed doesn’t try to inflate away the deficit, the USD and US Treasuries will continue to be the safe haven assets throughout the global economy as they have been for 50 years because it’s a global pandemic and every economy in the world is going through the same thing we are. The US Treasury will have no trouble selling TBills to institutional, consumer and governmental investors because the global economy is tanking, and there’s nothing safer.

 

https://reddit.app.link/cdO8oncsB5

[yarnivek1972]

Honest question, at what percentage of the population already having he antibodies are you OK with going back to normal? and if that percentage comes back too low how are we going figure out how to get that percentage higher if everybody is hiding out at home or doing everything they can to not get it?

 

Because lets be honest the vaccine on a large scale is still quite a few months out.

 

Also as Sconnie said you need way more than 1 test per person, because lets say they test 50 million and the number is too low you are going to have to test them again, since most or some percentage of people show no signs.

 

That is the catch 22, wait until the economy is dead or push forward and have a small percentage die.

It’s not so much a raw percentage, but a high enough percentage that can’t work at home.

 

I think I remember seeing that Dr Faucci said about 70% would be sufficient for “herd immunity”. I doubt we have that level yet. My personal guess is roughly 25% now. But even that’s going to vary. More densely populated areas are going to show higher rates. That’s a given.

 

Personally, I’d feel pretty safe at 40%. But I’m young and reasonably healthy. Older and people who aren’t healthy would still need to take extreme precautions.

[Mr. Brooks]

Honest question, at what percentage of the population already having he antibodies are you OK with going back to normal? and if that percentage comes back too low how are we going figure out how to get that percentage higher if everybody is hiding out at home or doing everything they can to not get it?

 

Because lets be honest the vaccine on a large scale is still quite a few months out.

 

Also as Sconnie said you need way more than 1 test per person, because lets say they test 50 million and the number is too low you are going to have to test them again, since most or some percentage of people show no signs.

 

That is the catch 22, wait until the economy is dead or push forward and have a small percentage die.

A one time 50% wealth tax on the richest 1% of the population would be enough for every single American adult to survive without working for 24 months (at roughly $44k per year). And every single one of those 1% of Americans taxed would still have more money than they should ever need to spend (average of $10M each).

 

I'm not saying this is the right thing to do. Simply pointing out that there are far more than just the two options of tank the economy or sacrifice lives moving ahead.

 

And that one time tax would have very little negative impact on the economy, as that wealth is almost entirely hoarded, not spent.

[Tomj14]

I understand math is hard, but you think the top 1% has enough money to pay close to 200 million adults 88k over two years and that is only have of their wealth?

[glunn]

 

I understand math is hard, but you think the top 1% has enough money to pay close to 200 million adults 88k over two years and that is only have of their wealth?

I think that there is enough data on wikipedia to take a crack at the math. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_inequality_in_the_United_States

 

 

[old nurse]

 

It’s not so much a raw percentage, but a high enough percentage that can’t work at home.

I think I remember seeing that Dr Faucci said about 70% would be sufficient for “herd immunity”. I doubt we have that level yet. My personal guess is roughly 25% now. But even that’s going to vary. More densely populated areas are going to show higher rates. That’s a given.

Personally, I’d feel pretty safe at 40%. But I’m young and reasonably healthy. Older and people who aren’t healthy would still need to take extreme precautions.

If there were 25% with some form of active immunity that would mean there were about 80 million people infected. Given the number of deaths so far that would make the virus only 1/4 as deadly as an influenza.  That is not the case.

[Tomj14]

I think that there is enough data on wikipedia to take a crack at the math. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_inequality_in_the_United_States

[rdehring]

 

OK, lets say the US gets the first 328 million vaccines, when do you think that is going to happen? At the earliest it will be after the 1st of 2021 and that would be an unprecedented, even revolutionary achievement.

and again in my comment above it the US is on lock down for the next 12 months there will be no coming back, and to be honest if the numbers stay the way they are, people are going to be out and about breaking all the rules by the end of the month.

I listened to the CEO of Johnson & Johnson in CNBC a few weeks ago. He stated that they had a vaccine (and several backups) that would be ready for clinical testing by September at the latest. He said they would have results by the end of the year, at the latest. The vaccine will be available beginning in Quarter 1 of 2020. They plan on manufacturing 1 billion doses with manufacturing beginning before the end of testing. Although he didn't say how long it would be before the 1 billion doses would be ready, I recall he indicated it would be readily available by the second quarter of 2021. He also stated they are spending $1 billion researching and developing this vaccine and it would be sold on a not for profit basis. I also remember CNBC's Joe Kenan stating something to the effect that this CEO isn't someone to make statements he wasn't confident were accurate, ie, he isn't a B.S. artist.   

 

As for us being locked down. My wife and I haven't left our home for anything other than picking up groceries (we order on line and they bring to the car) since about March 10. I fully expect that our governor will be getting many industries/jobs opened up between now and May 4. I also expect us older folks (we are in our late 70's, but healthy) are going to remain in jail well beyond May 4.  Personally, I am ok with that, provided the rest of the economy gets moving. I will say, however, that having a Twins game every night would make my sentence a hell of a lot better. Hopefully, they can figure out how to do that in another 60 days or so. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I listened to the CEO of Johnson & Johnson in CNBC a few weeks ago. He stated that they had a vaccine (and several backups) that would be ready for clinical testing by September at the latest. He said they would have results by the end of the year, at the latest. The vaccine will be available beginning in Quarter 1 of 2020. They plan on manufacturing 1 billion doses with manufacturing beginning before the end of testing. Although he didn't say how long it would be before the 1 billion doses would be ready, I recall he indicated it would be readily available by the second quarter of 2021. He also stated they are spending $1 billion researching and developing this vaccine and it would be sold on a not for profit basis. I also remember CNBC's Joe Kenan stating something to the effect that this CEO isn't someone to make statements he wasn't confident were accurate, ie, he isn't a B.S. artist.

 

As for us being locked down. My wife and I haven't left our home for anything other than picking up groceries (we order on line and they bring to the car) since about March 10. I fully expect that our governor will be getting many industries/jobs opened up between now and May 4. I also expect us older folks (we are in our late 70's, but healthy) are going to remain in jail well beyond May 4. Personally, I am ok with that, provided the rest of the economy gets moving. I will say, however, that having a Twins game every night would make my sentence a hell of a lot better. Hopefully, they can figure out how to do that in another 60 days or so.

he said there would be limited availability in q1-q2 2021 maybe 100m doses and scaling up to a billion doses end of q4 2021.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/cnbc-transcript-johnson-johnson-ceo-alex-gorsky-speaks-with-cnbcs-squawk-box-today.html

 

There are 1.1 m doctors, 2.9 m nurses and 42 m senior citizens, so there’s half of the first wave already and we haven’t even touched fire firefighters, EMTs and the factory workers and truck drivers who make and deliver the critical PPE and vaccines that we’re relying on.... that won’t start human trials until September.