Rockies Mega-deal

[cmoss84]

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

Let's say the Rockies want to regroup. Let's say they have to choose between Story and Arenado. Let's also say the Rockies value premium pitching prospects, and catching prospects that can play multiple positions, with power. Blackmon gets traded elsewhere in this scenerio. 

 

According to this site, trading Graterol, Balazovic, Larnach and Jeffers would be an overpay to receive Arenado and Gray. Maybe that overpay allows Colorado to pay $5-10 million of Arenado's salary/year, which essentially pays for Gray's contract. 

 

I know this is highly unlikely to happen. I know Arenado has an opt-out after 2 years. Would you make this trade, to go all in the next 2 years?

 

*my apologies with the link-it was something like Twins would give 88 points and would receive 65 points. 

[Mr. Brooks]

I'd rather take on the full salaries and give up less prospect capital.

[old nurse]

You forgot to include Rosario

[Mike Sixel]

I actually think that is an over pay by the Twins. I would still consider it, but I'm thinking swap out Jeffers for Rortverdt as a starter.....And, I'd really want to move that opt out out another 2 years somehow.....

[cmoss84]

 

I'd rather take on the full salaries and give up less prospect capital.

This thought crossed my mind as well-but ultimately decided this is the only way the Rockies take the deal, and it would also allow money for a RP (like Betances).

[Otto von Ballpark]

Graterol is a bit iffy as a lead piece in a blockbuster, because he's such a wild card as far as starting/relief right now. And piling up 4 good prospects is always an iffier proposition than 1-2 better prospects -- if the Rockies don't share your valuation of 1 of the 4, it can kind of torpedo the whole thing.

 

Another issue, from the Rockies side, is that they're built to win right now. You may not be able to tell by their record, but they are. In addition to Arenado and Gray, there's Story, Blackmon, Marquez, and Oberg. Making the team worse in 2020-2021 could make them better in 2022+, but it also likely squanders a lot of value from that group. Unless they go full rebuild and trade everyone like the White Sox a few years ago -- but in that case, they probably target higher upside prospects than Larnach and Jeffers (guys like Moncada, Kopech, Jimenez, and Giolito).

[cmoss84]

 

I actually think that is an over pay by the Twins. I would still consider it, but I'm thinking swap out Jeffers for Rortverdt as a starter.....And, I'd really want to move that opt out out another 2 years somehow.....

I might have just dreamed this, but I swear I read somewhere that he has something in his contract that allows a trade-off of an extension/wiping away the opt-out. I am probably wrong though. 

The key is to get him to waive his no-trade clause. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Overpay by Twins.  Trade Rortverdt instead of Jeffers and add Rosario and Gordan and  Jax and Celistino.  

[twinkiesfan11]

I wouldn't want to give up both Graterol and Balazovic. Agree on taking on more salary to reduce prospect cost if that's an option. Adding Arenado and Gray would be huge though and if the Rockies are actually open to this Falvine should be all over it. 

[Cody Pirkl]

I say no to this only because I think there are less reckless ways to go "all in". despite our offensive showing in round 1 of the playoffs, our offense should still be built to slug with the best of teams. Arenado is a guy to dream about but to give up so much to acquire him makes me wonder if the negative effect it would have on the future may outweigh the positive effect it has on the present.

 

I do like Jon Gray, but lets be clear, he's also not the ace that pushes our rotation over the edge of being one of the best in the league. He could be tinkered with and maybe take that next step, but just last year he was left off the playoff roster for the Rockies. This year he would have been our 3rd most valuable starting pitcher by a slim margin only because Pineda missed the end of the season. We would get better on offense and pitching, but are there better ways to do it?

 

Even leaving the offense as is and acquiring a pitcher like Syndergaard or Sale likely cost less in the way of prospects. I'd argue moving up an entire tier in starting pitcher would be a better move than acquiring a fantastic 3rd baseman and 2nd tier at best starter in terms of pure value it would add to this team.

[cmoss84]

 

I say no to this only because I think there are less reckless ways to go "all in". despite our offensive showing in round 1 of the playoffs, our offense should still be built to slug with the best of teams. Arenado is a guy to dream about but to give up so much to acquire him makes me wonder if the negative effect it would have on the future may outweigh the positive effect it has on the present.

 

I do like Jon Gray, but lets be clear, he's also not the ace that pushes our rotation over the edge of being one of the best in the league. He could be tinkered with and maybe take that next step, but just last year he was left off the playoff roster for the Rockies. This year he would have been our 3rd most valuable starting pitcher by a slim margin only because Pineda missed the end of the season. We would get better on offense and pitching, but are there better ways to do it?

 

Even leaving the offense as is and acquiring a pitcher like Syndergaard or Sale likely cost less in the way of prospects. I'd argue moving up an entire tier in starting pitcher would be a better move than acquiring a fantastic 3rd baseman and 2nd tier at best starter in terms of pure value it would add to this team.

I would say we get a lot better on defense as well. Gold glove 3B puts less pressure on rest of IF...

 

As mentioned in other threads, whether or not Thor is even available is the question since Mets are contending. Sale is interesting. 

[Cody Pirkl]

 

I would say we get a lot better on defense as well. Gold glove 3B puts less pressure on rest of IF...

 

As mentioned in other threads, whether or not Thor is even available is the question since Mets are contending. Sale is interesting. 

We would but we could also do that by switching Sano to 1B and signing even a decent fielding 3B. We'll still have significant issues with infield defense with Arraez at 2B who's an average defender at best and Polanco at SS who can be a huge issue at times. No doubt Arenado would make a positive impact on defense but I'd just argue that the front office may not think that's the best way to address the problem when there are other alternatives. If they were worried about gold glove-esque defense and were willing to take on some money for it, they'd likely sign Donaldson for example. 

 

In terms of whether Thor is available, that was just one example. I think we could make him available for less than the package of 4 of our top 10 prospects. Sale has a similar situation to Arenado in terms of rich contract and still (hopefully) able to perform at a high level. I think an arm is better than a 3B in that case for the structure of our team right now.

[drivlikejehu]

The problem with the Rockies is that they're bad but don't realize it. They have no rotation depth and so giving up a starter really doesn't work unless they are waving the white flag, and they don't seem prepared to do that, certainly not pre-season. 

[The Wise One]

The GM had a statement that his team could contend this year. There is nothing in that deal for this year. They do not have to dump salary so it is not imperative to make a trade. July might be a different story. There is always the pesky no trade contract.

[pierre75275]

I think I would rather have Story than Arrendo

[cmoss84]

 

I think I would rather have Story than Arrendo

 

I think the Rockies would as well-that's why Arenado is "available" (which I still do not buy). 

[Steve Lein]

 

I think I would rather have Story than Arrendo

 

I was gonna say the same thing. 

 

Back when there was talk of trading for Tulowitzki, I was saying I'd rather go after Story, hah.

[jhoffman]

Ppierre is correct, I'd rather do whatever it takes to get the Rockies to give up Story and Gray so that we could move Polanco to 2b and use Arraez as a trade chip.