Vegas odds of landing Cole, Strasburg, Bumgarner & Rendon

[John Bonnes]

Just got this email with these odds courtesy of BetOnline.com. Twins are not on the board for these big three....

 

Gerrit Cole Game 1 2020

Los Angeles Angels                   2/1      

New York Yankees                    3/1      

Houston Astros                         7/2

Los Angeles Dodgers                5/1      

Philadelphia Phillies                   15/2

San Diego Padres                     15/2    

 

Stephen Strasburg Game 1 2020

Washington Nationals                5/4      

New York Yankees                    3/1      

Boston Red Sox                        5/1      

Los Angeles Angels                   7/1      

Philadelphia Phillies                   7/1      

San Diego Padres                     10/1    

 

Madison Bumgarner Game 1 2020

Atlanta Braves                           3/2

San Francisco Giants                2/1      

New York Mets                          4/1      

Philadelphia Phillies                   4/1      

New York Yankees                    10/1    

Houston Astros                         12/1

 

Anthony Rendon Game 1 2020

Washington Nationals                3/2      

New York Mets                          5/2      

New York Yankees                    5/1

Texas Rangers                          5/1      

Chicago White Sox                    7/1      

Los Angles Angels                    9/1      

Philadelphia Phillies                   9/1      

Arizona Diamondbacks             12/1

[John Bonnes]

I think mostly what this drives home to me is that even though there is a LOT of starting pitching talent on the free agent market, there are also a lot of interested teams. 

[nicksaviking]

Interesting the disparity between the three pitchers. The Angels surely are #1 for Cole due to hometown geography and their historical willingness to give out big contracts while the Dodgers are likely ONLY on the list due to hometown geography because the Dodgers can't be found on the other two pitchers' lists.

 

The Red Sox need pitching and are a traditional big spender but they only make one of the lists? I suppose they're currently paying the price for taking on these kinds of contracts in years past and may need to take a step back before they go that route again. Still, why Strasburg but not the other two?

 

Meanwhile, the more thrifty (relatively speaking) Braves and Mets find themselves only on Bumgarner's list, which is understandable because he's a clear step down from the other two. However, they find themselves at the TOP of his list ahead of the big spenders. I suppose Atalanta has hometown pull with him being from NC and all, but the Mets?! That rotation is already loaded!

 

I'm not casting doubt on any of this, I'm sure there's some good behind the scenes steam to all of it and I can't wait until us rubes start catching wind of these rumors.

 

 

[Riverbrian]

The Red Sox have basically said that they are going to reduce payroll to get below the luxury tax and this isn't going to be easy for them to accomplish. 

 

Rumors already being floated that they have Mookie Betts on the trade block. 

 

This should lower the odds of Red Sox and Strasburg significantly. 

[Squirrel]

 

I think mostly what this drives home to me is that even though there is a LOT of starting pitching talent on the free agent market, there are also a lot of interested teams. 

Wait ... where are the Twins in those odds?

[USAFChief]

 

I think mostly what this drives home to me is that even though there is a LOT of starting pitching talent on the free agent market, there are also a lot of interested teams. 

There is?

 

 

[Vanimal46]

There is?

There's one clear ace, one that's "available" but not really available, one that could bounce back to be an ace again, and one where you have to squint and hope he could be an ace... Yeah, not a lot to work with.

[Twodogs]

I think that there a quite a few lower tier starting pitchers out there on the market, a la Jake Odorizzi, types.  Very good pitchers but usually only go 5 maybe 6 innings.  I think these teams like the Yankees etc.... all see that yeah a bullpen can do a lot for you, but if you have pitchers that can consistently go 7 innings or sometimes more without the help of the bullpen then that team has a better chance of winning the big one.  You just can't ever be sure what you are going to get out of your bullpen, Chapman gave up a bomb to lose in the playoffs, but if the starter is straight up "dealing" then you just leave him in there such as Strasburg in game 6 pitching into the 9th.  I mean almost all relievers are at one point a failed starter, so you really never know when they will implode or not be able to find the strike zone and they are especially vulnerable when they have to pitch 2 - 3 days in a row.  So if you can keep your best relievers only pitching once per 3 game series they will be much better too.  So I think these pitchers that can go 7 and sometimes 8 innings are going to be worth even more money than in the past.  I just feel like there is going to be a huge gap between the Coles and Strasburgs and guys like Odorizzi.  Odorizzi looks great when he goes out there but he just doesn't seem to last very long which ends up hamstringing the team he is on.  Especially when it comes to a 7 game series.

 

JMO