Front Page: A Stab at the Twins Postseason Roster 2.0

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I haven't looked at their roster, but are you saying they're exclusively RH as a team? Perez has been pretty dominant against lefties. I'd be fine letting him be on the roster for that Role so that Rodgers can take a late inning against the heart of their order. 

They have Gregorius, who hasn't been very good this season. Their only lefty worth mentioning is Gardner.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

They have Gregorius, who hasn't been very good this season. Their only lefty worth mentioning is Gardner.

Yeah, it's possible Gregorious (90 OPS+) is on the bench for them. They could do Torres at SS (130 OPS+), LeMahieu at 2B (136), Urshela at 3B (133), and then Encarnacion (131) and Voit (127) at 1B and DH, health permitting, of course.

Edited September 25, 2019 by spycake

[Thrylos]

Depends who they are playing.  If they are playing the Yankees with a bunch of LHSP, I would like to see LaMarre over Wade.  Wade cannot hit lefties, and all 3 of the rest of the OFs are left handed.  If they play the Astros Wade is fine, because even their pen is very RHP oriented.

[yarnivek1972]

Depends who they are playing. If they are playing the Yankees with a bunch of LHSP, I would like to see LaMarre over Wade. Wade cannot hit lefties, and all 3 of the rest of the OFs are left handed. If they play the Astros Wade is fine, because even their pen is very RHP oriented.

LaMarre was not acquired until after September 1. So, he’s the one guy we know for sure won’t be on the roster.

[insagt1]

I don't think LaMarre or Torreyes is eligible for post season. don;t you have to be on the 25 man roster on Sept 1? At least thats the way it has been for decades? If I'm wroing correct me. If injuries get us under that limit, then are they OK to add?

 

Astudillo will be on the roster. No way you keep a guy like that off. His value comes when you see what he did last night. We had no runs and we needed a guy who would put the bat on the ball.  We have Sano, who is a threat to go deep every AB..but he also can 'k' in that situation... wasting an out. The Turtle is our best weapon off the bench and can play almost anywhere. I believe he is a ton more valuable than Castro, but I know I'll get showered with manure for taking that position. Thats OK. We will see Wlllians in the ALDS.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Depends who they are playing.  If they are playing the Yankees with a bunch of LHSP, I would like to see LaMarre over Wade.  Wade cannot hit lefties, and all 3 of the rest of the OFs are left handed.  If they play the Astros Wade is fine, because even their pen is very RHP oriented.

Wade's minor league splits don't necessarily support that. 2018 is the only season in his minor league career so far that shows a platoon split by OPS.

 

He hasn't faced them much in MLB yet, but he's also only started 12 games in the majors too -- he hasn't faced much of anybody yet.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't think LaMarre or Torreyes is eligible for post season. don;t you have to be on the 25 man roster on Sept 1? At least thats the way it has been for decades? If I'm wroing correct me. If injuries get us under that limit, then are they OK to add?

Anyone on the 40-man roster as of midnight Aug. 31st is postseason eligible. But you can also petition to replace injured postseason eligible players with anyone who was in the org as of midnight August 31st -- so Torreyes could be added that way. (Not that I expect him to be!)

 

Graterol looks like the only real candidate for that injury replacement petition right now.

[yarnivek1972]

Anyone on the 40-man roster as of midnight Aug. 31st is postseason eligible. But you can also petition to replace injured postseason eligible players with anyone who was in the org as of midnight August 31st -- so Torreyes could be added that way. (Not that I expect him to be!)

 

Graterol looks like the only real candidate for that injury replacement petition right now.

Who would he replace? The only guys on the DL are Buxton and Poppen. Both are on the 60 day but haven’t been there anywhere close to 60 days. Gonsalves is still on the milb DL. Does that count?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Who would he replace? The only guys on the DL are Buxton and Poppen. Both are on the 60 day but haven’t been there anywhere close to 60 days. Gonsalves is still on the milb DL. Does that count?

MILB DL indeed counts. Nick Gordon would be the obvious choice for replacement. (I think Gonsalves was already activated off the minor league DL, per his MILB page.)

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Anyone on the 40-man roster as of midnight Aug. 31st is postseason eligible. But you can also petition to replace injured postseason eligible players with anyone who was in the org as of midnight August 31st -- so Torreyes could be added that way. (Not that I expect him to be!)

 

Graterol looks like the only real candidate for that injury replacement petition right now.

I thought he was added to the 40 man before midnight on Aug 31... 

[Mr. Brooks]

I posted in the other thread, but O'Rourke didn't fare well vs Gardner in 2015 (1 hit and two walks in 3 PAs).

 

And the alternative to not LOOGYing isn't to let them beat you -- I also noted that May and Duffey are about as effective (by wOBA) vs LHB this year as O'Rourke is for his MLB career. You can deploy May and Duffey (and of course Rogers) over those LHB spots, if you want, and get equal or perhaps better effectiveness than O'Rourke -- and they can even stay in to face more than 1 batter, or be useful in other game situations too.

 

Perez has been more effective than O'Rourke vs Gardner for sure -- only 2 hits and 1 HBP in 11 PA, with 3 K's. So he could be a LOOGY matchup option for him, if necessary, in addition to being capable of eating some innings in other situations. (Gregorious has 2 HR in 10 PA vs Perez, though -- maybe a matchup to avoid?)

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/batter_vs_pitcher.cgi?request=1&submitter=1&pitcher=perezma02&min_year_game=2012&max_year_game=2019&post=1&opp_id=NYY&bats=L&c1gtlt=gt&c2gtlt=gt&orderby=PA&orderby_dir=desc&orderby_second=Name&orderby_dir_second=asc

Those sample sizes are so tiny, that IMO, they mean nothing.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I thought he was added to the 40 man before midnight on Aug 31...

Nope. There was a whole big debate about that around here.

 

Basically, when you add someone to the 40-man, you either have to add them to your active MLB roster immediately or option them for at least 10 days. So we couldn't just add Graterol to the 40-man on August 31st (when the active roster limit was still 25) and recall him on Sep. 1st (unless he was recalled to replace an injured player). We could have added him to the 40-man on August 21st, though...

 

In any case, it's pretty easy to petition to replace someone, and the Twins now have two candidates who could easily be eligible for replacement (Gordon and Dyson).

[Otto von Ballpark]

Those sample sizes are so tiny, that IMO, they mean nothing.

Sure. But in the context of O'Rourke, you probably won't find any sample that suggests he deserves a MLB postseason roster spot over, say, Perez. That was my point, really.

[Mr. Brooks]

Sure. But in the context of O'Rourke, you probably won't find any sample that suggests he deserves a MLB postseason roster spot over, say, Perez. That was my point, really.

I completely agree, just don't think 3 PA sample sizes do anything to augment that opinion.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I completely agree, just don't think 3 PA sample sizes do anything to augment that opinion.

Well, when you're responding to someone who specifically says we need O'Rourke to face Gardner in the postseason instead of, say, Perez, I thought it was worth noting!

 

Of course, even if Gardner was 0-for-3 against O'Rourke, it wouldn't necessarily swing the case the other way either. I certainly won't be including those small samples among the central points in my thesis about Ryan O'Rourke, as I pursue a degree in loogyology, but I thought it was fair game for a message board discussion.

[yarnivek1972]

Nope. There was a whole big debate about that around here.

 

Basically, when you add someone to the 40-man, you either have to add them to your active MLB roster immediately or option them for at least 10 days. So we couldn't just add Graterol to the 40-man on August 31st (when the active roster limit was still 25) and recall him on Sep. 1st (unless he was recalled to replace an injured player). We could have added him to the 40-man on August 21st, though...

 

In any case, it's pretty easy to petition to replace someone, and the Twins now have two candidates who could easily be eligible for replacement (Gordon and Dyson).

Dyson is still on the active roster and there are no longer 10 days until game one of the ALDS.

[Mr. Brooks]

Dyson is still on the active roster and there are no longer 10 days until game one of the ALDS.

Can't he be placed on the IL retroactively to the date he last pitched? It's been more than 10 days since he last pitched.

[yarnivek1972]

Can't he be placed on the IL retroactively to the date he last pitched? It's been more than 10 days since he last pitched.

Ordinarily, yes. But, I’m not certain if that pertains to postseason eligibility. Pretty big miscalculation by Falvine if it does not.

[Mr. Brooks]

Ordinarily, yes. But, I’m not certain if that pertains to postseason eligibility. Pretty big miscalculation by Falvine if it does not.

I'm not sure it matters either way. They can use Gordon's spot if they decide to add Graterol.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Ordinarily, yes. But, I’m not certain if that pertains to postseason eligibility. Pretty big miscalculation by Falvine if it does not.

I think retroactive is fine. You just can't call up a minor leaguer and make their IL stint retroactive (like Poppen, he was on the minor league IL for awhile but that time doesn't count toward his MLB 60 days).

[yarnivek1972]

So, if Kepler is a no go for the ALDS (a possibility that certainly can’t be ignored), how does that change things?

 

I still think 12 pitchers is a must with Pineda out and Gibson and Perez ineffective to the point that both may not make the playoff roster.

 

I still go with these starters, in this order:

 

Odorizzi

Dobnak

Berrios

Smeltzer

 

Although, I might be inclined to start someone else (maybe Graterol or Littell or May) in game 4 and bring in Smeltzer to start the second inning. Not that I expect more than 2-3 out of Smeltzer anyway. Smeltzer would be available in the pen for game one and Dobnak in game 5.

 

Relievers are

 

Rogers

Duffey

Romo

May

Littell

Stashak

Graterol

Perez

 

Position players

 

 

Castro

Garver

Astudillo

Cron

Arraez

Schoop

Sano

Polanco

Cruz

Rosario

Cave

Gonzalez

Miller

 

 

Of course, there is no real back up shortstop. Could go with Torreyes over Miller but I don’t think I would as that would leave the team without a legitimate CFer. I think keeping Torreyes in the dugout to be activated in case of injury should suffice. Without Kepler, I think they absolutely need Miller. IMO, it’s a toss up between Wade and Cave for the starting CF job. I give the nod to Cave based on having more experience and also his power might play well in Yankee Stadium.

 

Lineup vs RHP

 

2b Arraez

ss Polanco

dh Cruz

rf Rosario

3b Sano

c Garver

lf Gonzalez

1b Astudillo

cf Cave

 

vs LHP

 

c Garver

ss Polanco

dh Cruz

3b Sano

rf Rosario

1b Cron

2b Schoop

lf Gonzalez

cf Cave

Edited September 26, 2019 by yarnivek1972

[Aerodeliria]

 

Yep. I don't want any lefty facing the Yankees but if I have to choose between Smeltzer and Perez, I choose Smeltzer every time.

Hear, hear! Smeltzer throws strikes and Perez falls behind hitters.

[Aerodeliria]

I wouldn't discount Gregorious based upon how he has been hitting this season as a whole. He made mincemeat of Twins pitching this year again.

 

Gregorius, who went 8 for 10 with 10 RBIs in his two starts (against the Twins), hit an RBI double to ignite a four-run second. Mike Tauchman added a two-run triple before the inning was over. Gregorius tacked on a two-run triple in the fourth and finished with three hits, one day after going 5 for 5 with seven RBIs (from a NY online news site).

 

Make the determination based simply on who are the best pitchers available.

[Aerodeliria]

 

So, if Kepler is a no go for the ALDS (a possibility that certainly can’t be ignored), how does that change things?

I still think 12 pitchers is a must with Pineda out and Gibson and Perez ineffective to the point that both may not make the playoff roster.

I still go with these starters, in this order:

Odorizzi
Dobnak
Berrios
Smeltzer

Although, I might be inclined to start someone else (maybe Graterol or Littell or May) in game 4 and bring in Smeltzer to start the second inning. Not that I expect more than 2-3 out of Smeltzer anyway. Smeltzer would be available in the pen for game one and Dobnak in game 5.

Relievers are

Rogers
Duffey
Romo
May
Littell
Stashak
Graterol
Perez

Position players


Castro
Garver
Astudillo
Cron
Arraez
Schoop
Sano
Polanco
Cruz
Rosario
Cave
Gonzalez
Miller


Of course, there is no real back up shortstop. Could go with Torreyes over Miller but I don’t think I would as that would leave the team without a legitimate CFer. I think keeping Torreyes in the dugout to be activated in case of injury should suffice. Without Kepler, I think they absolutely need Miller. IMO, it’s a toss up between Wade and Cave for the starting CF job. I give the nod to Cave based on having more experience and also his power might play well in Yankee Stadium.

Lineup vs RHP

2b Arraez
ss Polanco
dh Cruz
rf Rosario
3b Sano
c Garver
lf Gonzalez
1b Astudillo
cf Cave

vs LHP

c Garver
ss Polanco
dh Cruz
3b Sano
rf Rosario
1b Cron
2b Schoop
lf Gonzalez
cf Cave

I agree-almost. I want Arraez's bat in the lineup no matter who is pitching because he can get walks. Schoop comes in as a pinch hitter or if we think his "D" is better than Arraez's, he comes in late to protect the lead.

[Aerodeliria]

I really hope we are not thinking three-man rotation because I think that doesn't bode very well for Berrios the second time around, so I am hoping it is Berrios, Dobnak (just because I want the 'control' pitcher sandwiched), Odorizzi and then the bullpen game.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I really hope we are not thinking three-man rotation because I think that doesn't bode very well for Berrios the second time around, so I am hoping it is Berrios, Dobnak (just because I want the 'control' pitcher sandwiched), Odorizzi and then the bullpen game.

People keep lining these things up right now and I think that's unnecessary and wrong.

 

If the Twins win game one with Berrios, throw a bullpen game in two.

 

If the Twins lose game one with Berrios, send Odorizzi to the mound for two.

 

Don't put yourself in the position to head back to Minnesota with the series at 0-2 just because you spaced out your best pitchers.

 

In a vacuum, I'd *absolutely* throw the bullpen game in two and four. It makes the most sense. But if it increases the odds of going down 0-2, I do whatever I can to prevent that from happening.

[yarnivek1972]

People keep lining these things up right now and I think that's unnecessary and wrong.

 

If the Twins win game one with Berrios, throw a bullpen game in two.

 

If the Twins lose game one with Berrios, send Odorizzi to the mound for two.

 

Don't put yourself in the position to head back to Minnesota with the series at 0-2 just because you spaced out your best pitchers.

 

In a vacuum, I'd *absolutely* throw the bullpen game in two and four. It makes the most sense. But if it increases the odds of going down 0-2, I do whatever I can to prevent that from happening.

As of right now, Odorizzi is scheduled to pitch Sunday. So, if he doesn’t pitch again until game 2, that’s 6 days between starts. If it isn’t until Game 3, that would be 8. I think Odorizzi is more likely to start game one on normal rest and Berrios will likely throw a simulated game to stay on his routine and start game 3. There’s a reason why starters are usually set days in advance. They do certain things on each day leading up to prepare. Messing with that needlessly IMO is a bad idea. And also not necessary IMO. I don’t think a bullpen game gives the Twins less of a chance to win than Berrios or Odorizzi. We’re not talking about Dysdale and Koufax here.

[FlauerPauer]

Whatever they decide to do, I think it comes down to Wade vs. Cave and Astudillo vs. Miller. 

 

Regardless of what they decide, the Twins just can't get swept. That would be heartbreaking.

[Otto von Ballpark]

As of right now, Odorizzi is scheduled to pitch Sunday. So, if he doesn’t pitch again until game 2, that’s 6 days between starts. If it isn’t until Game 3, that would be 8. I think Odorizzi is more likely to start game one on normal rest and Berrios will likely throw a simulated game to stay on his routine and start game 3. There’s a reason why starters are usually set days in advance. They do certain things on each day leading up to prepare. Messing with that needlessly IMO is a bad idea. And also not necessary IMO. I don’t think a bullpen game gives the Twins less of a chance to win than Berrios or Odorizzi. We’re not talking about Dysdale and Koufax here.

I think most every starter will be on extra rest to begin the postseason, just like they are after the all star break. Routine is nice, but they can adjust to this particular circumstance without too much difficulty.