Article: Big Splash Coming in Twins Territory

[Kelly Vance]

I remember Mark Twain's remark about stats.  "There are lies, damnable lies and statistics."

 

I don't care so much about OPS for a longball hitter. I really don't. I do care about slugging percentage as a show of getting extra base hits (homers). and I care about RBIs coming from the 3-4-5 slots. OPS means more to me for a table setter hitting 1 or 2, or for a guy like Grossman, who gets lots of BBs. One of the criticisms of Mauer was his willingness to take walks when a double would have better served. Well, he is in good company. Ted Williams was that way too. And I don't mind strikeouts from 3-4-5, so long as they are not a 33 percent surety. Are you listening Miggie?

 

I think for this year I would go for a couple rent-a-homer guys. Donaldson is a risk, sure. But his upside is 30-40 HRs and that translates into RBIs. He is what we thought we were getting with LoMo.He will miss some games, but we have Ehire and maybe someone else will emerge as a super utility. Subs have to play sometime. So I think the FO takes the chance.  

 

 Being RH heavy in power hitters is not so bad. Other teams are that way.  We can weave Keps and Eddie into that lineup RH/LH/RH/LH and lessen the problems with that. But before I went after Nelson, I'd look for a lefty slugger with a team first attitude.  

 

Don't want Murphy. He had a nice run but we have guys we need to give a shot. I would move Polanco to 2B and get a good fielding SS. I don't see Gordon beating out Jorge. 

 

So add me to the Donaldson bandwagon. He starts at 3b and Sano moves over with Austin in a DH/1b role. Not ideal, but workable because Kiri and Rooker are waiting to contribute, hopefully soon.  

 

I leave the OF alone. I don't trade Buck and Sano. They are still young and their high ceilings make patience the smarter approach. 

 

What we need are pitchers that can hold the other team to 3 or fewer runs consistently. That translates into wins. 

[howieramone2]

Any 2 of those 4 would be fine with me. We need to add 2 bombers. At this point in time we can't gamble Sano will become the player we hoped he would.

[Doomtints]

 

I remember Mark Twain's remark about stats.  "There are lies, damnable lies and statistics."

 

I don't care so much about OPS for a longball hitter. I really don't. I do care about slugging percentage as a show of getting extra base hits (homers). and I care about RBIs coming from the 3-4-5 slots. OPS means more to me for a table setter hitting 1 or 2, or for a guy like Grossman, who gets lots of BBs.

 

The problem with OPS is that it counts the single event twice (once in OBP, once in SLG). For your purposes, you don't want that inaccuracy. Use OBP instead of OPS.

 

For power guys it matters less. For them, using OPS is fine.

 

In Mauer's MVP season, if you account for the fact that singles are double-counted and remove them from either calculation, his OPS drops quite a bit. But when you look at Killebrew's MVP season and account for the singles the same way his OPS doesn't change nearly as much.

Edited November 18, 2018 by Doomtints

[ashbury]

 

The problem with OPS is that it counts the single event twice (once in OBP, once in SLG). For your purposes, you don't want that inaccuracy. Use OBP instead of OPS.

 

For power guys it matters less. For them, using OPS is fine.

 

In Mauer's MVP season, if you account for the fact that singles are double-counted and remove them from either calculation, his OPS drops quite a bit. But when you look at Killebrew's MVP season and account for the singles the same way his OPS doesn't change nearly as much.

A debate on metrics, which this invites, belongs in a new thread rather than in this one about player acquisition possibilities.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Given the FO's apparent aversion to age there is little chance of them signing these players or trading for Santana

they did re-sign Matt Belisle

[DrNeau]

Donaldson to DH on 2-yr deal.

 

Austin 1B

Sano 3B

[VATwinsFan]

I've been a Twins fan since the mid-60s.  For me this is the most unsettling and unpredictable off-season ever.  The team is a mess and I have no idea know how the whiz kids are going to fix it (Sano and Buxton coming around would certainly help, but that's on them, not the front office).

 

It will be fascinating to see how it all plays out.

[Kelly Vance]

 

The problem with OPS is that it counts the single event twice (once in OBP, once in SLG). For your purposes, you don't want that inaccuracy. Use OBP instead of OPS.

 

For power guys it matters less. For them, using OPS is fine.

 

In Mauer's MVP season, if you account for the fact that singles are double-counted and remove them from either calculation, his OPS drops quite a bit. But when you look at Killebrew's MVP season and account for the singles the same way his OPS doesn't change nearly as much.

Yeah, I agree. That is what I was trying to say. Maybe we should start a new comparison for boomers.  Compare RBI against Ks. 

 

But as to the subject, we need a heavy hitter or two. I like Cutch, but we have 4 outfielders. I like Donaldson as a 3-4-5-slot hitter.  Iglesias or someone like that would help a lot too. Why not move Miggie over and retool the left side?  Austin to DH. 

Edited November 19, 2018 by Kelly Vance

[old nurse]

 

they did re-sign Matt Belisle

Relievers are different than position players on the aging curve.

[caninatl04]

The problem with OPS is that it counts the single event twice (once in OBP, once in SLG). For your purposes, you don't want that inaccuracy. Use OBP instead of OPS.

 

For power guys it matters less. For them, using OPS is fine.

 

In Mauer's MVP season, if you account for the fact that singles are double-counted and remove them from either calculation, his OPS drops quite a bit. But when you look at Killebrew's MVP season and account for the singles the same way his OPS doesn't change nearly as much.

Your intuition is backed up by statistics. It turns out that the single measure that is most highly correlated with wins looks like

 

OBP + 1/2 ISP.

 

If one thinks about "weights", a walk is worth about 0.9, a single = 1, a double = 1.4, a triple = 1.7 and a HR is worth 2.

 

I know it seems strange at first. What would one rather have: one HR (worth 2) or 2 singles (also worth 2)?

 

But its what the stats say!