Article: Adalberto Mejia: High Floor or More?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think the point is that nearly all their pitchers are no better than number 4 types......other than Berrios and Santana. I think that was the point....

 

I'd guess Mejia sits in that 4/5 AAAA range most of his career. That's a valuable asset, just not a game changing asset.

But isn't that the case with most systems? It's not as if even the best system has 3-4 #1/2 projectable pitchers in the pipeline.

 

The Twins are certainly lacking can't-miss, top-end talent but there are intriguing names that might end up mid-rotation or better in the future: Enlow, Thorpe, Romero primarily. Gonsalves could also peak higher than most of us expect. Never underestimate a crafty lefty with decent stuff.

[Mike Sixel]

But isn't that the case with most systems? It's not as if even the best system has 3-4 #1/2 projectable pitchers in the pipeline.

 

The Twins are certainly lacking can't-miss, top-end talent but there are intriguing names that might end up mid-rotation or better in the future: Enlow, Thorpe, Romero primarily.

I was not passing judgement,I was answering a question. Worse for this team, and this is a judgement, one of the good pitchers is in his mid 30s....

[Doomtints]

Mejia will never be a good pitcher with his walk rate. If he fixes that, sure, but it's a longstanding problem and it isn't likely to change. 

 

With a good defense he can be a #3, but most likely he is a #5 with maybe a couple of peak years as a #4.

 

The Twins signed a #3 but he won't hit the field until 2019 -- Michael Pineda* -- so Mejia is slotting in where he should be for the long term. The Twins have yet to address the short term middle of the rotation.

 

*Pineda is not a real solution to anything as he will only play one year with the team.

Edited February 6, 2018 by Doomtints

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Mejia will never be a good pitcher with his walk rate. If he fixes that, sure, but it's a longstanding problem and it isn't likely to change. 

 

With a good defense he can be a #3, but most likely he is a #5 with maybe a couple of peak years as a #4.

 

The Twins signed a #3 but he won't hit the field until 2019 -- Michael Pineda* -- so Mejia is slotting in where he should be for the long term. The Twins have yet to address the short term middle of the rotation.

 

*Pineda is not a real solution to anything as he will only play one year with the team.

Mejia's walk rate is troublesome but not outlandish (4.0/9 in 2017). Contrast that with a pretty solid rookie year K rate (7.8/9) and it's not hard to see him becoming a productive MLB pitcher, certainly better than a #5 in the rotation.

 

If he moves both stats in the correct direction half a point, his peripherals suddenly look rather solid. He's not *that* far off the mark.

 

I understand people being somewhat tepid on Mejia but I don't think he's getting a fair shake a lot of the time. He's coming off a quite solid rookie campaign with peripherals that weren't embarrassing (his peripherals look downright promising compared to Berrios' rookie year). Sure, he has stuff to work on but I'm not ready to relegate him to a #5 starting pitcher quite yet.

[ashbury]

With a good defense he can be a #3

Too bad the two guys he passes up in the pecking order don't get the same benefit.

[Doomtints]

 

Too bad the two guys he passes up in the pecking order don't get the same benefit.

 

The defensive play Santana got was a bit different from the defensive play some of the other guys got. You gotta be a great guy in the clubhouse to really get peak effort from guys ... that's just reality/human nature.

[ashbury]

The defensive play Santana got was a bit different from the defensive play some of the other guys got.

That's gotta be Small Sample Size.

 

Otherwise, you're arguing that, say, Buxton gets an initial read on a long fly ball, says "I might be able to reach that", then thinks twice and says, "nah, that one's on Gibby".

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I think Odorizzi kicks Mejia back to Rochester (hey, somebody had to do it).

 

I would like to see Mejia pitch into the 8th inning a few times in AAA to show he has the stamina to even get through the 4th or 5th in the bigs. He seems to unravel pretty quickly. I wonder if spin rates remain steady or if they drop off with fatigue or who his swinging strikes were collected from or if he can maintain his release point deep into a game, or, name your question. Lots of great data in this article and still lots of important questions surrounding him. Mejia is a good player to have, just not ready to trust him with a rotation spot. Maybe a spot start against a favorable matchup.

[Mr. Brooks]

I think Odorizzi kicks Mejia back to Rochester (hey, somebody had to do it).

 

I would like to see Mejia pitch into the 8th inning a few times in AAA to show he has the stamina to even get through the 4th or 5th in the bigs. He seems to unravel pretty quickly. I wonder if spin rates remain steady or if they drop off with fatigue or who his swinging strikes were collected from or if he can maintain his release point deep into a game, or, name your question. Lots of great data in this article and still lots of important questions surrounding him. Mejia is a good player to have, just not ready to trust him with a rotation spot. Maybe a spot start against a favorable matchup.

Not that I disagree that Mejia needs to be able to go deeper in games, but so does Odorizzi. Odorizzi averaged 1 more out per start than Mejia did last year.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I think Odorizzi kicks Mejia back to Rochester (hey, somebody had to do it).

I would like to see Mejia pitch into the 8th inning a few times in AAA to show he has the stamina to even get through the 4th or 5th in the bigs. He seems to unravel pretty quickly. I wonder if spin rates remain steady or if they drop off with fatigue or who his swinging strikes were collected from or if he can maintain his release point deep into a game, or, name your question. Lots of great data in this article and still lots of important questions surrounding him. Mejia is a good player to have, just not ready to trust him with a rotation spot. Maybe a spot start against a favorable matchup.

 

With Santana on the DL, I think Mejia will get a shot in the rotation personally. I'm fine with that. There's some pretty unrealistic expectations on this forum if we think that what we saw of Mejia in his rookie year is what we get, and I'd probably say the same again regardless of how he does in 2018. Baring injury, he should improve.

 

He may not ever be a #1, but if he puts up anything even remotely close to his minor league career rate, then he's pitching like a 2/3 type. His career walk rate is around 2 in the minors. His K rate is a bit lower than I'd like, though from here it looks as though there was something going in in AA (injury I'm guessing but I'm just spitballing based on the number of innings pitched) that likely affected it, as he's been up over 8 per 9 in just about all of his other stops, which included a stint in the PCL (note his major league K rate is already in line with his minor league career numbers). 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

Not that I disagree that Mejia needs to be able to go deeper in games, but so does Odorizzi. Odorizzi averaged 1 more out per start than Mejia did last year.

If only we had additional data on Odorizzi besides his 2017 season

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

With Santana on the DL, I think Mejia will get a shot in the rotation personally. I'm fine with that. There's some pretty unrealistic expectations on this forum if we think that what we saw of Mejia in his rookie year is what we get, and I'd probably say the same again regardless of how he does in 2018. Baring injury, he should improve.

 

He may not ever be a #1, but if he puts up anything even remotely close to his minor league career rate, then he's pitching like a 2/3 type. His career walk rate is around 2 in the minors. His K rate is a bit lower than I'd like, though from here it looks as though there was something going in in AA (injury I'm guessing but I'm just spitballing based on the number of innings pitched) that likely affected it, as he's been up over 8 per 9 in just about all of his other stops, which included a stint in the PCL (note his major league K rate is already in line with his minor league career numbers). 

You could be right. I went back to look at Mejia's lines, and he wasn't as bad as I remember, especially in June and July last year he was pretty good. My impression is of Mejia's later starts, always running into trouble and Molitor getting itchy already by the 2nd or 3rd inning. 

 

..still a #5-6 starter, imo, but maybe worth a start or two early when Santana is rehabbing

Edited February 19, 2018 by Hosken Bombo Disco

[Mr. Brooks]

If only we had additional data on Odorizzi besides his 2017 season

The post I was responding to was discussing 2017 performance.

[Mr. Brooks]

I think Mejia will be better than some people think.

Of course a rookie pitcher is going to show some flaws. All in all, I think 2017 was a promising first step towards a career as a solid 4th starter.