JT Realmuto.....go get him.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Sad to say but that's the way it appears to me. Houston, Yanks and Red Sox are all significantly better than we are and that's not going to change anytime soon. If compete means in the division they have a chance. If compete means to win the World Series it ain't happening in the next 2-3 years.

The problem is "compete" means whatever any individual poster says it means, usually with the follow-on idea that all other posters who disagree are wrong.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

So I ask again, is there any Twins you wouldn't trade with him being the headliner?

Aren't we talking about Realmuto? What does it matter if people would trade Dozier or Reed or Odorizzi or whomever for Graterol?

[USAFChief]

 

The Twins have a 3.9% chance to win the Central. No, I would definitely not trade a top 20 prospect to chase those odds. And I'm guessing no GM in their right mind would either. 

 

Can you provide a similar example in the history of baseball where a team in the Twins current position has made a trade like that?

1. "3.9% chance" is not a fact. In fact, it's ludicrous to think someone can predict half a baseball season for multiple teams to anything close to that level of certainty. It's somebody's math formula, based almost entirely on assumptions and projections. I would agree the Twins are certainly underdogs to win the 2018 ALC.

 

2. "I would definitely not trade a top 20 prospect to chase those odds." That's not what you originally said.

 

3. Without bothering to look, I'll guess multiple GMs have made attempts to improve their roster while 6 games out of a division lead in Jun/Jul.

 

 

[alarp33]

 

NY Mets in 2015 hovered around .500 through the end of July. Remained within a couple games of division leader WAS. Traded for Yoenis Cespedes, the team got hot in August/September, and rode that momentum to the WS.

 

Not a terrible example, the Mets did have 25% playoff odds, more than 3x the Twins current odds. They were also much more set up to win once they got their in my opinion, based off their rotation. 

 

And of course Fulmer was the 98th ranked prospect entering that season, not top 20 like Lewis is. 

[alarp33]

 

1. "3.9% chance" is not a fact. In fact, it's ludicrous to think someone can predict half a baseball season for multiple teams to anything close to that level of certainty. It's somebody's math formula, based almost entirely on assumptions and projections. I would agree the Twins are certainly underdogs to win the 2018 ALC.

 

2. "I would definitely not trade a top 20 prospect to chase those odds." That's not what you originally said.

 

 

1) I mean fangraphs has them at 3.9%, that is a fact. Whether they actually make the playoffs? Who knows. Its certainly a long shot. 

 

2) I wrote "I would never even consider trading a top 20 prospect like Lewis to try and compete for a division title.".  are we splitting hairs here or what? Try being the key word as its a big uphill battle

 

[Vanimal46]

Not a terrible example, the Mets did have 25% playoff odds, more than 3x the Twins current odds. They were also much more set up to win once they got their in my opinion, based off their rotation.

 

And of course Fulmer was the 98th ranked prospect entering that season, not top 20 like Lewis is.

On this date in 2015 the Mets had a 10% chance to win the division. I don't know what they did differently in July to increase their odds to 20% considering they still hovered around .500.

 

The Twins pitching is good. The best we've seen in years frankly. They're set up for success too if they find a significant upgrade at the few positions they're able to.

 

Realmuto is obviously the best C option available right now. And would be noticably better than Garver/Castro/Wilson.

 

If they find another BP rental arm, a RH OF replacement for LaMarre, and a power bat to replace Morrison I think we'll be good for the stretch run.

[alarp33]

 

Curious, where would you spend the money next year?

Outfield looks set, Starting pitchers seem set, we have a bunch of Relief pitchers holding spots on the 40 man, Between Polanco and Gordon, we have the middle covered.

So that leaves 3B, 1B, and DH.

Hopefully Sano is 1B or DH, and Escobar is 3B.

Lewis, Rooker, Wade and Kirilloff are getting close and don't want them blocked by a long term contact.

 

It seems you are using "set" pretty loosely. Gibson, Berrios, Odorizzi, Romero and ?? Is certainly not a rotation I would consider "set".  

 

Other than the rotation, I would certainly look at bringing in a 3rd baseman (Gordon trade bait?) and moving Escobar to 2b. I like the idea of gambling on Josh Donaldson for 2-3 years because I think they need another RH bat. I'd certainly try to improve the bullpen (who's next years closer?). A 1st base/DH type is a need, with Sano filling the other.  

 

Lots of areas the team can improve that doesn't require trading Lewis and Kiriloff

[alarp33]

 

On this date in 2015 the Mets had a 10% chance to win the division. I don't know what they did differently in July to increase their odds to 20% considering they still hovered around .500.

The Twins pitching is good. The best we've seen in years frankly. They're set up for success too if they find a significant upgrade at the few positions they're able to.

Realmuto is obviously the best C option available right now. And would be noticably better than Garver/Castro/Wilson.

If they find another BP rental arm, a RH OF replacement for LaMarre, and a power bat to replace Morrison I think we'll be good for the stretch run.

 

Right but the Mets didn't trade for Cespedes now, which is what people are advocating the Twins do with Realmuto. 

 

The Twins pitching is much better than it was in previous years, that's not really relevant though. The Starters are 19th in xFIP, 17th in FIP, 14th in ERA, 14th in WAR. Those numbers don't scream, look out American League. The mets respectively in 2015 were; 4,6,3,5 in those categories. 

[tvagle]

If we're playing Let's Make a Deal...lets think about what else Miami might like in a deal...

 

How much of a prospect discount would the Marlins give for taking on Prado ($21M), S.Castro($18M) or "Holy Phil Hughes" Wei-Yin Chin($47M+)?

[Mike Sixel]

Adding a few mediocre free agents next off season isn't going to move the needle. This team lacks difference makers. Not a washed up player like Donaldson.

 

I started this thread in December, since then Realmuto has put up more war than any Twin not named Eddie or Eduardo.

 

I understand being conservative with rentals, but waiting for a bunch of minor league players more than two years away? If you are doing that, you aren't betting on Sano and Buxton at all.

[alarp33]

 

Adding a few mediocre free agents next off season isn't going to move the needle. This team lacks difference makers. Not a washed up player like Donaldson.

I started this thread in December, since then Realmuto has put up more war than any Twin not named Eddie or Eduardo.

I understand being conservative with rentals, but waiting for a bunch of minor league players more than two years away? If you are doing that, you aren't betting on Sano and Buxton at all.

 

So in your opinion the only way for the Twins to ever compete is trading for Realmuto now? That seems to be what you are saying. You have provided absolutely no analysis on how they should complete this trade (Kepler + Garver? Lol), what they should do about competing next year, why they are completing it now (as they sit under .500 and 6 games back in Central).  

 

How many wins do you think Realmuto is worth to this team? Realistically what does he add from now through end of September, 2-3 wins? THAT is your solution for fixing this mess?

 

BTW, Donaldson hit .270/..385/.559 last year with a 146 OPS+ and had a 4.9 WAR. But yes, my only solution was to sign a "mediocre" player like him (whos been hurt this year, making him gettable on a shorter term deal)

 

EDIT: I've NEVER said they should wait for prospects like Lewis to arrive before they try to compete. I have said I would wait to see what they have in Buxton and Sano before going all in on a trade, since right now they have nothing with either of them and are a long ways from contention

[tvagle]

 

It seems you are using "set" pretty loosely. Gibson, Berrios, Odorizzi, Romero and ?? Is certainly not a rotation I would consider "set".  

In Twins terms having a 5th starter choice of Gonslaves, Mejia, Pineda seems pretty set considering past rotations

 

Not doing something at catcher is a waste of this season's opportunity (Cleveland being reachable)

Sure you could wait and try for Castro part II (Grandal or any other FA) in the winter...I'd prefer 2.5 years of Realmuto thank you very much

[Mike Sixel]

So in your opinion the only way for the Twins to ever compete is trading for Realmuto now? That seems to be what you are saying. You have provided absolutely no analysis on how they should complete this trade (Kepler + Garver? Lol), what they should do about competing next year, why they are completing it now (as they sit under .500 and 6 games back in Central).

 

How many wins do you think Realmuto is worth to this team? Realistically what does he add from now through end of September, 2-3 wins? THAT is your solution for fixing this mess?

 

BTW, Donaldson hit .270/..385/.559 last year with a 146 OPS+ and had a 4.9 WAR. But yes, my only solution was to sign a "mediocre" player like him (whos been hurt this year, making him gettable on a shorter term deal)

I have to lay out my entire plan in this thread? I don't agree. Not did I say it was the only way, not one time. Feel free to disagree, but do so on points I've actually made, please.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

On this date in 2015 the Mets had a 10% chance to win the division. I don't know what they did differently in July to increase their odds to 20% considering they still hovered around .500.

The other poster quoted total playoff odds, including wild card.

[alarp33]

 

I have to lay out my entire plan in this thread? I don't agree. Not did I say it was the only way, not one time. Feel free to disagree, but do so on points I've actually made, please.

 

You are not offering up anything except that Realmuto is good and would help the Twins. No one is disagreeing with that. The entire discussion is why should a team in the Twins current position make a trade like this where they'd very likely have to part with their top 2 prospects. What is your reasoning for completing a blockbuster trade like that now. Because you think this team can compete with the Astros, Yankees and Sox this year? Because they would certainly catch the Indians? I'm just asking why the urgency

[alarp33]

 

In Twins terms having a 5th starter choice of Gonslaves, Mejia, Pineda seems pretty set considering past rotations

 

Not doing something at catcher is a waste of this season's opportunity (Cleveland being reachable)

Sure you could wait and try for Castro part II (Grandal or any other FA) in the winter...I'd prefer 2.5 years of Realmuto thank you very much

 

Because the Twins rotations have stunk for 7 years they should just be happy that maybe Gonsalves, Mejia or Pineda are warm bodies? Woof

 

I feel like I'm watching a different team than others in this thread when I see stuff like "this seasons opportunity" thrown in about a team who is currently trailing a rebuilding Tigers team and sits 5 games under .500 

[Mike Sixel]

You are not offering up anything except that Realmuto is good and would help the Twins. No one is disagreeing with that. The entire discussion is why should a team in the Twins current position make a trade like this where they'd very likely have to part with their top 2 prospects. What is your reasoning for completing a blockbuster trade like that now. Because you think this team can compete with the Astros, Yankees and Sox this year? Because they would certainly catch the Indians? I'm just asking why the urgency

It's literally a thread about Realmuto.... So yes, I'm talking about that in this thread. Not the other things I'd do. That would be in a different thread.

 

My reasoning has been laid out, he's controlled for two years beyond this one, he plays a position they can't fill from within anytime soon, and he's a great player. Feel free to disagree, I'm cool with that.

 

As for competing with those three? It's going to be really hard. They are young, and great, and are willing to go for it. But I don't think this team should give up on the next two years.

[Vanimal46]

Because the Twins rotations have stunk for 7 years they should just be happy that maybe Gonsalves, Mejia or Pineda are warm bodies? Woof

 

I feel like I'm watching a different team than others in this thread when I see stuff like "this seasons opportunity" thrown in about a team who is currently trailing a rebuilding Tigers team and sits 5 games under .500

They feel like a different team every day... In fairness, I see how terrible Cleveland's bullpen is with their subpar lineup and ask why we want to hand them the division title right now.

[alarp33]

 

As for competing with those three? It's going to be really hard. They are young, and great, and are willing to go for it. But I don't think this team should give up on the next two years.

 

I think there's a vast difference between giving up on the next 2 years, and not trading for Realmuto now.

 

I don't think its hyperbole to say this franchises entire short term fortune relies upon Sano and Buxton being very good to star level players. IF both of them are busts, where does this team sit next year WITH Realmuto? I think the answer is nowhere near the level of the Yankees, Red Sox, Astros, Indians, etc. Which is why I see absolutely no reason to even be considering a trade like this as we sit here today 

[tvagle]

 

Because the Twins rotations have stunk for 7 years they should just be happy that maybe Gonsalves, Mejia or Pineda are warm bodies? Woof

 

I feel like I'm watching a different team than others in this thread when I see stuff like "this seasons opportunity" thrown in about a team who is currently trailing a rebuilding Tigers team and sits 5 games under .500 

 

For perspective...Gonsalves, Mejia or Pineda are Lucifer-like on the warm body scale compared to recent rotation options (Albers,Correia,Darnell.Deduno,Diamond...) that was my point...been awhile since 1-4 have been serviceable heading into a season

 

Without a "season of opportunity" Twins and Vikings fans would be in the same boat

 

Woof - the sound a point makes going over head

[dbminn]

 

So in your opinion the only way for the Twins to ever compete is trading for Realmuto now? That seems to be what you are saying. You have provided absolutely no analysis on how they should complete this trade (Kepler + Garver? Lol), what they should do about competing next year, why they are completing it now (as they sit under .500 and 6 games back in Central).  

 

How many wins do you think Realmuto is worth to this team? Realistically what does he add from now through end of September, 2-3 wins? THAT is your solution for fixing this mess?

 

BTW, Donaldson hit .270/..385/.559 last year with a 146 OPS+ and had a 4.9 WAR. But yes, my only solution was to sign a "mediocre" player like him (whos been hurt this year, making him gettable on a shorter term deal)

 

EDIT: I've NEVER said they should wait for prospects like Lewis to arrive before they try to compete. I have said I would wait to see what they have in Buxton and Sano before going all in on a trade, since right now they have nothing with either of them and are a long ways from contention

 

Realmuto is ranked as the best C in baseball by Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Reference and Fangraphs. It will take a lot to get him. I had estimated (based on other's valuations) Gordon, Gonsalves, Rooker and/or maybe Rortvedt. Some have thought Lewis might have to be the headliner. Everyone's entitled to their opinion whether this is too much to trade. I might do it because:

 

2-3 wins is a pretty big deal for a single player in a half year. And with Realmuto, the Twins would get two more years beyond 2018.The only other positions where that kind of impact could be had on the current roster are DH and CF. Which leads to the last bold item:

 

Buxton and Sano have both shown they can be impact players. They need health/conditioning and reps. The "mess" doesn't get cleaned up without at least one of them returning to form. I think that will happen. Add in Polanco, and this team is very competitive moving forward. 

 

Elite catchers under control don't come around very often. I'd make the Marlins an offer.  

[Mike Sixel]

I'm willing to bet that neither is a bust. And that one is great, and one is good, over the next two years. Others want to wait and see. It's a different approach, nothing more or less than that.

 

This team has spent decades waiting, and then not acting on the present.

[alarp33]

 

I'm willing to bet that neither is a bust. And that one is great, and one is good, over the next two years. Others want to wait and see. It's a different approach, nothing more or less than that.

This team has spent decades waiting, and then not acting on the present.

 

I've been as big of Buxton/Sano supporter as anyone, and I would bet on both of them as well. I'm just unwilling to bet with Lewis/Kiriloff at this point that this team is set to be GOOD next year (and I'm all but counting out the 2018 team)

[Mike Sixel]

I've been as big of Buxton/Sano supporter as anyone, and I would bet on both of them as well. I'm just unwilling to bet with Lewis/Kiriloff at this point that this team is set to be GOOD next year (and I'm all but counting out the 2018 team)

If they are out next year, they should be dealing anyone not locked up past that point.

 

I guess that's the difference, I'm not starting from the same place as you.

[alarp33]

 

If they are out next year, they should be dealing anyone not locked up past that point.

I guess that's the difference, I'm not starting from the same place as you.

 

Yes, that's where I am at. There is no need to make a decision either way right now. But the way I am expecting things to go, my moves would be to deal Dozier, Lynn, Rodney, etc. in month. But I do NOT think this changes the outlook for next year. I am still optimistic the ship can be righted. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

You are not offering up anything except that Realmuto is good and would help the Twins. No one is disagreeing with that. The entire discussion is why should a team in the Twins current position make a trade like this where they'd very likely have to part with their top 2 prospects. What is your reasoning for completing a blockbuster trade like that now. Because you think this team can compete with the Astros, Yankees and Sox this year? Because they would certainly catch the Indians? I'm just asking why the urgency

 

Is their window open the next two years (even after this what is likely a lost season)? 

 

If the answer is yes, then that's the justification. We have no one in the high minors that can step in, and Garver is clearly backup material at the moment. There's no decent FA catcher either, so we have to deal with this same problem in 2019 and probably 2020, both of which are years where Realmuto would be under team control. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Realmuto is ranked as the best C in baseball by Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Reference and Fangraphs. It will take a lot to get him. I had estimated (based on other's valuations) Gordon, Gonsalves, Rooker and/or maybe Rortvedt. Some have thought Lewis might have to be the headliner. Everyone's entitled to their opinion whether this is too much to trade. I might do it because

I appreciate your research. I dug it up again because I was curious:

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/30185-article-three-potential-catcher-upgrades-on-the-trade-market/?p=755853

 

I think you may have made a mistake: Gonsalves and Gordon were both 50 FV in the 2018 Fangraphs preseason list. Using the values at the link you posted, that would only be $34 mil value, not $50 mil. (Gordon was listed at 55 FV last year, but downgraded this year, which I guess is also an example of how hard it is to peg values on these guys.)

 

And I don't think you can just add another 45-50 FV prospect to make up the difference either, or you will really be promoting quantity over quality. 50 FV prospects aren't that rare -- across the Fangraphs preseason lists, there were 97 this year. (Plus 42 more at 55 or better.) Virtually every team in baseball could match the package you proposed for the Twins, at almost any time. What would incentivize the Marlins to accept it right now?

 

Additionally, the leader in 50 FV prospects? The Marlins, with 7. They probably need additional 50 FV prospects less than any other team in baseball. (Especially one like Gordon, who was also listed as "low variance" meaning he has a higher floor rather than a higher ceiling.)

[Vanimal46]

Yes, that's where I am at. There is no need to make a decision either way right now. But the way I am expecting things to go, my moves would be to deal Dozier, Lynn, Rodney, etc. in month. But I do NOT think this changes the outlook for next year. I am still optimistic the ship can be righted.

Rental prices have been suppressed the last couple of years. Are they better off getting some C level prospects for these players? Or better off keeping them and trying to win as many games as possible?

 

I lean towards the latter because the farm is littered with C level prospects.

[alarp33]

 

Is their window open the next two years (even after this what is likely a lost season)? 

 

If the answer is yes, then that's the justification. We have no one in the high minors that can step in, and Garver is clearly backup material at the moment. There's no decent FA catcher either, so we have to deal with this same problem in 2019 and probably 2020, both of which are years where Realmuto would be under team control. 

 

My answer is firmly.. MAYBE. Like I've said, if Buxton and Sano stink, no I don't think it's open the next two years. If Buxton and Sano figure it out, then yes I think its open. Which is why I would not consider a trade today for Realmuto. 

[alarp33]

 

Rental prices have been suppressed the last couple of years. Are they better off getting some C level prospects for these players? Or better off keeping them and trying to win as many games as possible?

I lean towards the latter because the farm is littered with C level prospects.

 

If they are 8+ games out? I think they'd be better off trading those guys, calling up Gordon to play 2nd. They wouldn't get a top 50 prospect for any of those guys, but they could get some nice lottery tickets. Probably improve their draft slot as well.