Cubs sign Chatwood - 3/38m

[gunnarthor]

Not a bad deal for the Cubs. Hopefully this gets the hot stove going.

[drjim]

I agree, really good deal for the Cubs.

[Tom Froemming]

They'd better have a plan to fix this:

 

Worst K:BB Ratios 2016-17 (min 300 IP)

Martin Perez 1.57

Tyler Chatwood 1.61

Kyle Gibson 1.96

Wade Miley 1.96

Luis Perdomo 2.02

[Twins33]

I would have liked that deal for the Twins. His walks are definitely a concern, but the rest of his away numbers suggest that Coors crushed him...even though he's a mostly GB guy.

 

I guess we'll see what happens with those stats.

[Danchat]

$13M a year is a bit much for a guy who just finished a 4.94 FIP season with 4.7 BB/9. Getting out of Colorado should help but I still think they're overpaying.

[laloesch]

 

Not a bad deal for the Cubs. Hopefully this gets the hot stove going.

 

I would imagine a flurry of deals once Ohtani signs or verbally commits.

[nicksaviking]

 

They'd better have a plan to fix this:

 

Worst K:BB Ratios 2016-17 (min 300 IP)

Martin Perez 1.57

Tyler Chatwood 1.61

Kyle Gibson 1.96

Wade Miley 1.96

Luis Perdomo 2.02

 

All of those pitchers have one thing in common, they're sinkerballers. Their repertoire is going to always put them near the bottom of any kind of strikeout category. Like Kyle Gibson, the sinker is Chatwood's worst pitch, probably mandated by his similarly old school club due to the fact that conventional wisdom says you need to keep the ball on the ground in Colorado.

 

Outside of Coors Field, with his really good velocity, good cutter and good curve, I'd bet a club that gets him to reduce his sinker usage has a good shot at making a real pitcher out of him.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Yeah all of those pitchers have one thing in common, they're sinkerballers. Their repertoire is going to always put them near the bottom of any kind of strikeout category. Like Kyle Gibson, the sinker is Chatwood's worst pitch, probably mandated by his similarly old school club due to the fact that conventional wisdom says you need to keep the ball on the ground in Colorado.

 

Outside of Coors Field, with his really good velocity, good cutter and good curve, I'd bet a club that gets him to reduce his sinker usage has a good shot at making a real pitcher out of him.

I'm much more freaked out about his walks than anything else. His 11.3 BB% is the highest among those 67 pitchers to have logged 300 innings in the past two years. Miley is second at 9.9%. Clearly the Cubs think they can fix him, it'll be interesting to see how it works out.

[USAFChief]

It's a lot to pay for "we think we can fix this."

 

If nothing else, it goes to show the cost of FA starting pitching.  

[Mike Sixel]

This is the one I wanted the Twins to get. No worries, someday they will fix the pitching.....

[jimmer]

This is the one I wanted the Twins to get. No worries, someday they will fix the pitching.....

me too.

 

And the price is nice when one considers his away numbers and the cost of FA pitching in today's game.

[Thrylos]

 

This is the one I wanted the Twins to get.

 

He is worse than Gibson.  Career: 4.58 FIP, 4.31 ERA, 1.485 WHIP, 6.1 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 and 90% of it in the National League.  And max 158 IP in a season.

 

No. Thank. You. 

[Thrylos]

 

 

 the price is nice when one considers his away numbers

 

3.31 ERA, 1.335 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, 1.5 K/BB   Career away numbers.  In the NL.  Can strike maybe pitchers out and cannot find the zone.

 

Those are really not good numbers, other than his ERA.   They are just a notch better than Pelfrey's career numbers with the Mets:  4.36 ERA, 1.458 WHIP, 5.1 K/9, 1.6 K/BB.   So you are getting a slightly better Pelfrey.

[drjim]

Certainly makes the Gibson tender look like that much more of a no brainer, not that there was ever any doubt.

[Mike Sixel]

It's almost like you are ignoring he pitched in Denver.....

[Thrylos]

 

It's almost like you are ignoring he pitched in Denver.....

 

The days that Denver was the worst stadium in the majors for HRs are over.

 

Data here.

[kab21]

 

It's almost like you are ignoring he pitched in Denver.....

It is almost like you ignored advanced away stats.

6 K/9 - 4 BB/9 - 4.20 FIP - 4.40 xFIP

 

Chatwood is a guy that you take a flyer on instead of giving a 3 year contract in the hopes that he can continue to beat his advanced stats for away games. Exactly the type of contract that should be avoided imo. I am rather lukewarm on Gibson for next year but I will take him 10/10 times on a cheap one year deal.

Or I will take Ervin 100/100 times instead of dumping him for alright but not good prospects because he might fall off due to age next season. And there is a large thread (and new ones every year) that want Ervin traded because his numbers are unsustainable.

[Mike Sixel]

Ervin is not available to add....

[Mike Sixel]

The days that Denver was the worst stadium in the majors for HRs are over.

 

Data here.

I never mentioned home runs. Not sure how that is important

[Thrylos]

 

I never mentioned home runs. Not sure how that is important

 

That was the reason that Denver was thought of as a horrible place to pitch.  Allegedly

[jimmer]

I never mentioned home runs. Not sure how that is important

exactly, though this year his FIP was quite larger than his xFIP (which normalizes for HR). The OF in Coors Field is huge too.

[kab21]

 

Ervin is not available to add....

No, but people have specifically mentioned subtracting him.

 

The point remains though. Chatwood has awful advanced stats.

But perhaps Chatwood's advanced stats look awesome when broken down to away games during the day with catchers wearing sunglasses and facing American born hitters that were signed out of HS.

[Mike Sixel]

That was the reason that Denver was thought of as a horrible place to pitch. Allegedly

It dramatically decreases the effect of spin. Chatwood will be less expensive than the remaining good options.... Leaving room for relief help.

[Mike Sixel]

No, but people have specifically mentioned subtracting him.

 

The point remains though. Chatwood has awful advanced stats.

 

But perhaps Chatwood's advanced stats look awesome when broken down to away games during the day with catchers wearing sunglasses and facing American born hitters that were signed out of HS.

Who is left that is better, and cheap enough that they will also sign relief help?

[kab21]

 

Who is left that is better, and cheap enough that they will also sign relief help?

I continue to look elsewhere or sign nobody if the only other option is Chatwood on a 3/38 contract. I simply do not give this level of player 3/38. Especially as one of the first pitchers of the offseason to sign.

[jimmer]

Who is left that is better, and cheap enough that they will also sign relief help?

yup, 3/38 is nothing for a FA signing nowadays. Of course,in Twins land, we think thats a big signing.

[drjim]

Law in his chat today:

 

Steve: I know you’ll probably have a write-up on it but what are you’re initial thoughts on Chatwood to the Cubs?

Keith Law: That’s WAY more money than I thought he’d get. I had him as a potential bargain (heh) because getting him out of Denver might help him rediscover his curveball.

[jimmer]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-the-cubs-might-see-in-tyler-chatwood/

[Mike Sixel]

Law in his chat today:

 

Steve: I know you’ll probably have a write-up on it but what are you’re initial thoughts on Chatwood to the Cubs?

Keith Law: That’s WAY more money than I thought he’d get. I had him as a potential bargain (heh) because getting him out of Denver might help him rediscover his curveball.

He's being paid as one WAR a year guy.... That would be about what I expected. There aren't many pitchers even available. All of them will get paid.

[drjim]

 

He's being paid as one WAR a year guy.... That would be about what I expected. There aren't many pitchers even available. All of them will get paid.

 

I think the AAV is perfectly fine, but a little surprised on the years as I dig in a little bit more.

 

I think I would rather take a one year flyer on some of the veteran arms out there (Tillman, Jimenez, etc).