Article: Twins Playoff Push A Truly Cohesive Effort

[SwainZag]

 

People comparing anyone to Trout....wow.....

 

2nd half numbers:

 

Lindor: .316/.377/.578   .955 OPS  3.4 fWAR

Donaldson: .274/.397/.613   1.010 OPS  3.0 fWAR

Trout: .296/.444/.551   .995 OPS   2.8 fWAR

 

In that context they are very, very good comparisons to Trout.

[Mike Sixel]

 

2nd half numbers:

 

Lindor: .316/.377/.578   .955 OPS  3.4 fWAR

Donaldson: .274/.397/.613   1.010 OPS  3.0 fWAR

Trout: .296/.444/.551   .995 OPS   2.8 fWAR

 

In that context they are very, very good comparisons to Trout.

 

someone literally posted up thread that next year Buxton could be better than Trout. Do people really think Buxton is going to be better than Trout?

[gunnarthor]

 

someone literally posted up thread that next year Buxton could be better than Trout. Do people really think Buxton is going to be better than Trout?

Yes. Yes I do. What of it?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yes. Yes I do. What of it?

 

I'll take that bet right now.

[dbminn]

 

Yes. Yes I do. What of it?

 

I like your optimism!

 

Trout has been a generational player and Buxton won't ever catch him in career stats.  But I believe Buxton has a chance to challenge Trout in WAR in any given year. The talent is there and he's two wins per year better than Trout in the field. The guy is 23 years old so he's certainly not a finished product. Why not be optimistic? 

[gunnarthor]

 

I like your optimism!

 

Trout has been a generational player and Buxton won't ever catch him in career stats.  But I believe Buxton has a chance to challenge Trout in WAR in any given year. The talent is there and he's two wins per year better than Trout in the field. The guy is 23 years old so he's certainly not a finished product. Why not be optimistic? 

They're closer than Mike thinks. In mid April, by bWAR, Buxton was a slight negative (I think he 'peaked' at -0.4).  Since then, he's risen all the way to 5.2 but considering he was a negative, he's been essentially (or at least close enough) to a 6 WAR player since that time. Trout on the season is at 6 WAR. Now, obviously, Trout missed nearly a month or his totals would be much higher and it's not really fair to ignore Buxton's horrid beginning or to assume that WAR calculations based on defense and baserunning are solid. (And fWAR is a completely different story). But, let's do that anyway.

 

Assuming some continued improvement - he's hitting .278/.340/.465 since April 21st and .325/.372/.589 since July 1st, it's not crazy to think he could, over a full season, have a puncher's chance of leading the league in WAR in any given season even if he's not as good as Trout.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

They're closer than Mike thinks. In mid April, by bWAR, Buxton was a slight negative (I think he 'peaked' at -0.4).  Since then, he's risen all the way to 5.2 but considering he was a negative, he's been essentially (or at least close enough) to a 6 WAR player since that time. Trout on the season is at 6 WAR. Now, obviously, Trout missed nearly a month or his totals would be much higher and it's not really fair to ignore Buxton's horrid beginning or to assume that WAR calculations based on defense and baserunning are solid. (And fWAR is a completely different story). But, let's do that anyway.

 

Assuming some continued improvement - he's hitting .278/.340/.465 since April 21st and .325/.372/.589 since July 1st, it's not crazy to think he could, over a full season, have a puncher's chance of leading the league in WAR in any given season even if he's not as good as Trout.

 

sure, there's a chance anyone can be better for 1 year, or 3 months, or whatever. But would you bet on it straight up?

 

Do people think anyone is likely to hit 325/372/589 over a year? Two players slugged that high all last year. Four had a BA that high all last year. Seven are SLG that high this year (giving credit to 2 just short of that). Four have a BA that high this year. He could easily be the best BSR in a given year, imo. 

 

I'll take the under.

 

Don't get me wrong, Buxton might be great even discounting his defense, but that seems unlikely. 

[jimmer]

When/if Buxton does 6 consecutive seasons of Troutiness, I'll believe he's as good or better. What make Trout great is being completely awesome since his rookie year when he won ROY and finished 2nd in MVP. Consider what Trout had already done at the age Buxton is now.

 

As much as I'd love to see Buxton become Trouty, I won't hold my breath.

Edited September 19, 2017 by jimmer

[DocBauer]

Excellent article, really sums up how this whole team has improved, not just a few guys.

 

I've been especially impressed with Joe Mauer's gradual climb back to the level of superstar. After the concussions and other physical problems, who among us predicted that Mauer would be anything more than an average player in 2017? Not me, that's for sure. Yet he quickly established himself as a top fielding first baseman, and then got even better. We carped about how often he hit two-hoppers to second, how his bat seemed a little late on too many pitches. Then around mid-season, Mauer's bat started to come around. He started squaring up more balls, driving them hard to left, to center, and even pulling some balls with authority.

 

Last night's absolutely tattooed grand salami was not a fluke. It was a culminating statement from a former superstar catcher. He is now rising to superstar status as a first baseman. He now can bash pitches in all directions, and his defense is at the very highest level for that position. He has his eye back, his swing is back, and he appears to be pulling balls to right field with more power. Best of all, knowing Joe Mauer's history, there is no reason to think that he will suddenly develop some odd flaw in his swing. His approach at the plate has been incredibly consistent throughout his career. Joe Mauer is back.

After reason this, my mind suddenly flashed to Keith Hernandez.

[DocBauer]

Back on track...and late to posting...i love this post. And I've been on my soapbox all season about rolling with the kids on this team and giving them time. Once again, coming in to the season, Sano and Rosario were the most tenured of the youngsters and they had less than 800 ML AB!

 

What's the old line? There are lies, damned lies, and statistics. You look hard enough and you can make stats say almost anything you want, pro or con. Is this a perfect team? No. Is there need and room to add a couple quality pieces? Absolutely. But this article underscores development, a team effort, further hope going forward, and the fact that some guys are not as bad, or having as bad a season as perhaps was perceived.

 

Perspective people.

 

Further development, adding another few pieces...I'd say 3...and this could very well be a 90 win team next season.

[DocBauer]

A comment on Kepler:

 

He's having a solid season. He has all the ability in the world. He runs well but lags behind Buxton and Rosario in pure speed. But I wouldn't be surprised if he becomes the best overall hitter of the three.

 

I know hitting LH has been an issue. But I believe he will come around there. He has a great stroke, solid discipline, and his hands just look so good.

 

One thing we can't forget is he practically skipped AAA, and despite his athletic gifts, he had a big hill to climb initially playing ball in Germany as a youth.

 

I would honestly expect a breakout season in 2018 similar to Rosario this year.

[gunnarthor]

 

 

sure, there's a chance anyone can be better for 1 year, or 3 months, or whatever. But would you bet on it straight up?

 

Do people think anyone is likely to hit 325/372/589 over a year? Two players slugged that high all last year. Four had a BA that high all last year. Seven are SLG that high this year (giving credit to 2 just short of that). Four have a BA that high this year. He could easily be the best BSR in a given year, imo. 

 

I'll take the under.

 

Don't get me wrong, Buxton might be great even discounting his defense, but that seems unlikely. 

In any given year, I'd probably take the field over Trout but not a specific player over him. So, clearly, no. But in Arod's peak you still had guys like Boone, Giambi and Suzuki who could claim to have been better in seasons. I see no reason to think that Buxton's peak is 100 OPS+ as a hitter. I think he can move into the group of 10 or so players who have a realistic shot, year in, year out, of being better than Trout.

[Mike Sixel]

 

In any given year, I'd probably take the field over Trout but not a specific player over him. So, clearly, no. But in Arod's peak you still had guys like Boone, Giambi and Suzuki who could claim to have been better in seasons. I see no reason to think that Buxton's peak is 100 OPS+ as a hitter. I think he can move into the group of 10 or so players who have a realistic shot, year in, year out, of being better than Trout.

 

Let's hope so!

[drjim]

Yes. Yes I do. What of it?

2018 is a year early. Take the bet in 2019.