Christensen: Mauer Needs To Swing

[Kobs]

He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs.

 

I think you meant "he doesn't hit for power."

 

He hasn't once reached 60 XBHs in a season. Not even 2009. He's currently 5th on the team in XBHs. Never driven in 100 runs in a season, over 90 only once, despite hitting 3rd most of his career. Some of that you can chalk up to things outside his control...some of it you can chalk up to a passive approach and being perfectly content to slap the ball softly to left.

 

By all means, put your fingers in your ears and your hands over your eyes and sing "la la la" every time a legitimate criticism of Joe Mauer occurs if you wish. That doesn't mean there aren't legitimate criticisms of his approach to hitting, depsite the fact he gets on base a lot.

 

No, I meant that he doesn't hit home runs. High RBI numbers come from home runs, almost exclusively.

 

I don't see how that is outside his control.

[Guest USAFChief]

I don't see how that is outside his control.

 

I didn't say it was outside his control...that's the point. He could hit for more power--and knock in more runs--if he chose to alter his approach slightly. Or at least I think he could, and it would benefit the team more than a few extra walks and/or soft singles. I don't think anybody is suggesting he turn into Delmon Young at the plate.

 

BTW, I think it's a mistake to look at this through the prism of one PA in one game. It's one data point in a much larger issue.

[jokin]

BB% With Bases Empty

Mauer - %11.0

Willingham - %11.7

 

Both guys seem to be equally patient as batters when nobody is on.

 

BB% With Men on Base

Mauer - %17.0

Willingham - %13.6

 

When runners get on it appears that Willingham is able accept a few extra walks when he gets pitched around but seems to keep the same approach. Mauer's differential is so much greater that one must assume his approach at the plates changes and he becomes more passive.

Of course, with men on Willingham also strikes out 21% of the time and hits .272, whereas Mauer strikes out 14% and hits .335. Willingham is more aggressive and comes up with more XBH, to be sure, but he also makes more outs. I think we can all agree that making an out is a lot more damaging to a rally than walking to first, right?

 

I mean, clearly any time Mauer drew a walk it means he was thrown four balls. I'm sure he could chase more, strike out more, lower his average and maybe increase his power output, but why? Not everyone has to be that type of hitter. The Twins lineup already has guys like that, and there are lots of guys around the league with that approach. Few do what Mauer does as well as he does.

 

I'd argue that nobody does what he does as well. but no one has, as of yet answered the challenge that more often than not:

 

a team's best hitter-

with the game literally on the line-

who is clearly being pitched around-

who presents clearly higher probability of producing than his successor-at-bat-

will at least consider swinging at the obligatory 3-0 pitch if it's in the zone (as Luetge's pitch clearly was).

 

Mauer's career stats on 3-0 pitches:

 

PA- 205

BB- 201

BA- .500 (2-4) The last time he swung at a 3-0 pitch and put a BBIP was 2008. His career contact/BB rate on 3-0 is 2.9%.

 

 

There are 4MLB players with OBP over .400 from 2009-12 and their stats on 3-0:

 

 

Joey Votto OBP 426/PA 94/BA 750/SLG 1500/BB 86 Votto was 6-8 (9.3% contact/BB rate) when successfully swinging and putting BBIP

 

Miguel Cabrera OBP 416/PA 122/BA 500/SLG 1000/BB 116 Cabrera was 3-6 (5.2% contact/BB rate) when successfully swinging and putting BBIP.

 

Joe Mauer OBP 410/PA 92/BA 000/SLG 000/BB 92 Mauer was 0-0 (0% contact/BB rate).

 

Prince Fielder OBP 408/PA 163/BA 444/SLG 1444/BB 154 Fielder was 4/9 (5.8% contact/BB rate) when successfully swinging and putting BBIP.

[diehardtwinsfan]

speaking of RBI totals, just what has been the OBP of the #2 spot in the linup when Mauer is batting 3rd during Mauer's career? I wouldn't be surprised if it was under .250

[jharaldson]

I mean, clearly any time Mauer drew a walk it means he was thrown four balls. I'm sure he could chase more, strike out more, lower his average and maybe increase his power output, but why? Not everyone has to be that type of hitter. The Twins lineup already has guys like that, and there are lots of guys around the league with that approach. Few do what Mauer does as well as he does.

 

I agree that anytime he gets a walk he is thrown 4 balls but it is also highly likely that he was thrown a strike as well. Last night he was thrown 2 strikes he opted not swing at. Also, I think there is a miscommunication here. I am not asking Joe Mauer to change his approach to hitting, I am asking him to apply the same approach he does when the bases are empty. Maintain a good batting eye and a walk rate around %11-13 (there will obviously be situations he is pitched around when first is open). When strikes are thrown don't be afraid to swing at them.

 

Here are some more interesting stats:

 

Mauer's K% goes from %12.6 to %13.9 when men are on.

Mauer's BB% goes from %11 %17 when men are on.

Mauer's Balls in Play% goes from %76.4 to %69.1 when men are on.

Mauer's GB% goes from %52.6 to %58 when men are on which makes him more likely to GIDP.

 

I am not sure where all of this leads but I think the old debate of "Mauer's RBI totals suck" vs "Mauer's RISP numbers are awesome" is getting stale and there is probablly a middle ground. Some of it probablly is Gardy's use of sub-standard players in the 2 hole of the lineup but I think some of it is due to the fact that Joe swings the bat less in these situations as evidenced by his reduced ball in play numbers. If Joe keeps his same ball in play percentage that he does with the bases empty and maintains his good AVG/OPS numbers I bet his RBI totals would jump from the 60's to the 70's.

 

PS: Anyone know where I can get "Swings per AB" number with splits? Thanks!

[Nick Nelson]

Also, I think there is a miscommunication here. I am not asking Joe Mauer to change his approach to hitting, I am asking him to apply the same approach he does when the bases are empty.

 

He does. The difference is that when runners are on, pitchers are less likely to throw him strikes because – contrary to some of the things you're reading on this thread – he's a feared hitter that pitchers don't like facing in scoring opportunities, and he pretty much doesn't swing at balls. It baffles me that some people view his elevated walk rate with men on as a sign that he is not an imposing figure in the lineup.

[Kobs]

He could hit for more power--and knock in more runs--if he chose to alter his approach slightly. Or at least I think he could

 

Okay.

[Willihammer]

Leutge is a lefty.

 

Fine, preferably even to burn a lefty liike Leutge (sic) against a selective lefthander like Mauer in order to invoke a RHP. Again, either poison (Mauer or Willihammer) is potent, esp. in a late relief situation.

[Guest USAFChief]

He could hit for more power--and knock in more runs--if he chose to alter his approach slightly. Or at least I think he could

 

Okay.

 

Hey, I'm just agreeing with your post. You're the one who said it's not outside his control.

[Kobs]

He could hit for more power--and knock in more runs--if he chose to alter his approach slightly. Or at least I think he could

 

Okay.

 

Hey, I'm just agreeing with your post. You're the one who said it's not outside his control.

 

It's inside his control in that it's reflective of his ability. It's not an outside factor imposed upon him. I don't mean to imply that he could hit 30 home runs with a minor swing adjustment, Mr. Walters. If Mauer could hit more home runs or extra base hits, he would. I have no evidence for this, but I think he would like to hit more home runs, and I also think he knows what he is doing, because he seems to be pretty good.

[Guest USAFChief]

If Mauer could hit more home runs or extra base hits, he would.

 

Wait...so it IS outside his control? You seem confused.

[Kobs]

If Mauer could hit more home runs or extra base hits, he would.

 

Wait...so it IS outside his control? You seem confused.

 

No, FoxNews, I don't.

[twinsnorth49]

He could hit for more power--and knock in more runs--if he chose to alter his approach slightly. Or at least I think he could

 

Okay.

 

Hey, I'm just agreeing with your post. You're the one who said it's not outside his control.

 

It's inside his control in that it's reflective of his ability. It's not an outside factor imposed upon him. I don't mean to imply that he could hit 30 home runs with a minor swing adjustment, Mr. Walters. If Mauer could hit more home runs or extra base hits, he would. I have no evidence for this, but I think he would like to hit more home runs, and I also think he knows what he is doing, because he seems to be pretty good.

 

I have no idea wtf you're talking about but I'm not alone, you don't either.

[Guest USAFChief]

If Mauer could hit more home runs or extra base hits, he would.

 

Wait...so it IS outside his control? You seem confused.

 

No, FoxNews, I don't.

 

Two consecutive posts that resort to personal insults.

 

I'll take that as a concession.

[Kobs]

If Mauer could hit more home runs or extra base hits, he would.

 

Wait...so it IS outside his control? You seem confused.

 

No, FoxNews, I don't.

 

Two consecutive posts that resort to personal insults.

 

I'll take that as a concession.

 

I'll take that as an apology.

[B Richard]

I'm not saying the other point of view has no merit and I respect your assessment. I'm really just more incredulous that so many people (including Joe Christenson) are making one AB such a talking point and using that at bat to characterize Mauer. Actually what's worse is that it's not even that AB but seemingly only 1 or 2 pitches from that AB this is the source for their vitriol.

 

I believe good hitters go about their business the same way all the time, it's what makes them good hitters. To change your approach based on the situation is the very thing that will lead most guys to be lousy hitters, in fact that "approach" is a non-approach, it's a make it up as you go along philosophy. "Clutch" hitters are nothing more than good hitters at bat at the right time.

 

 

No. Hitters change their approach at the plate all the time based on situation, whether it's getting a ball to the outfield for a sac-fly, grounding out to the right side of the infield to advance the runner, or even doing something as simple as making their swing more compact with 2 strikes. What level did you stop playing ball?

 

I personally didn't mind Mauer staying within himself and having a positive AB, especially considering the pitches he was given.

[twinsnorth49]

No. Hitters change their approach at the plate all the time based on situation, whether it's getting a ball to the outfield for a sac-fly, grounding out to the right side of the infield to advance the runner, or even doing something as simple as making their swing more compact with 2 strikes. What level did you stop playing ball?

 

I personally didn't mind Mauer staying within himself and having a positive AB, especially considering the pitches he was given.

 

That's not changing you're approach, it's executing a given plan. In any of those scenarios you still don't go flailing away at bad pitches. And, I'm not sure what level you played ball until but the level I played used three outs, if Mauer changed his approach to any of the above suggestions we

wouldn't be talking about this, the game would have ended.

[Riverbrian]

This will do absolutely no good... But... I want to point out that Joe hits in the 3 hole because the manager writes his name in the 3 slot when he makes out the lineup card.

 

His approach and results seem to suggest that the 2 hole is a better fit but I think it's important to point out that Joe doesn't make out the lineup. The manager does. Taking that out on Joe is a little unreasonable.

 

Now if Joe was moved to the two... Revere would be moved to the 9. If Ben is hitting in the nine... Joe will still have the same two hitters in front of him... Just switched around and it will be just like he's hitting in the 3 hole again after the 1st inning.

 

In the end... Mauer will bat when he bats. Sometimes In big moments and sometimes in routine moments.

 

So I guess when you sort it all out. The prototypcial 3 hole hitter argument is a load of crap. When the game is tied or you are down with two outs in the 9th.

 

Your job is NOT TO MAKE THE LAST OUT. Job done!!! Plus one for Joe.

 

It was Willingham who made THE LAST OUT. Where's the article or thread asking why Willingham wasn't more patient instead of going up there hacking at two pitches before ending the Twins half of the inning. Couldn't Josh have changed his approach since a walk would have plated the go ahead run. A single would have been better obviously.

 

My statement about Willingham was ridiculous but it fits this general theme of this thread.

[B Richard]

That's not changing you're approach, it's executing a given plan. In any of those scenarios you still don't go flailing away at bad pitches. And, I'm not sure what level you played ball until but the level I played used three outs, if Mauer changed his approach to any of the above suggestions we

wouldn't be talking about this, the game would have ended.

 

 

What you try to do with your AB is your approach; good hitters still adjust their approach with 2 strikes. This is merely semantics, though. I do agree with you on Mauer in this situation, but by all means please continue pontificating for your phantom dissenters.

[Riverbrian]

What you try to do with your AB is your approach; good hitters still adjust their approach with 2 strikes. This is merely semantics, though. I do agree with you on Mauer in this situation, but by all means please continue pontificating for your phantom dissenters.

 

I just want to quote you... Just to see how many blue rectangles will pile up until it explodes. Ratio's original quoted post in the center is starting to look like... I don't know... Something long and skinny.

 

How bout... Manute Bol... That'll work.

[twinstalker]

What's up with Joe C.? He followed that lame one up with one on five pitchers on their way to help that basically illustrated entirely too clearly that the Twins have nothing to be waiting for, at least compared to other teams. I actually wonder whether Dave St. Peter wrote it.

[jokin]

Leutge is a lefty.

 

Fine, preferably even to burn a lefty liike Leutge (sic) against a selective lefthander like Mauer in order to invoke a RHP. Again, either poison (Mauer or Willihammer) is potent, esp. in a late relief situation.

 

I'd say the Mariners won this chess game of poison-picking and the Twins were out-thought on the percentages when all they needed was a single:

 

Willingham

BA: .258

BA v RHP: .269

BA w/ RISP: .295

BA w/ RISP/2out: .229

 

Mauer

BA: .319

BA v LHP: .308

BA w/ RISP: .353

BA w/ RISP/2out: .413

Luetge

OBA v L: .169

OBA w/ RISP: .258

OBA w/ RISP/2out: .167

 

Wilhelmsen

OBA v R: .175

OBA w/ RISP: .175

OBA w/ RISP/2out: .167

[Brock Beauchamp]

PLEASE EDIT YOUR OWN EMBEDDED QUOTES. IF YOU DO NOT, WE WILL BE FORCED TO REMOVE THE PLUG-IN AND RETURN TO THE OLD SYSTEM OF ONE QUOTE PER POST.

 

It only takes a few seconds to edit down your quotes, guys. Please do so in the future.

[Brock Beauchamp]

He does. The difference is that when runners are on, pitchers are less likely to throw him strikes because – contrary to some of the things you're reading on this thread – he's a feared hitter that pitchers don't like facing in scoring opportunities, and he pretty much doesn't swing at balls. It baffles me that some people view his elevated walk rate with men on as a sign that he is not an imposing figure in the lineup.

 

Albert Pujols walks around 90% more often with RISP than he does with the bases empty.

 

Joey Votto walks nearly 50% more often with RISP than he does with the bases empty.

 

Joe Mauer walks around 55% more often with RISP than he does with the bases empty.

 

Prince Fielder walks around 70% more often with RISP than he does with the bases empty.

 

Did it occur to anyone that people who are good at taking walks tend to walk more with RISP? This "phenomena" is certainly not unique to one Mr. Joseph Mauer. Pitchers don't like giving up game-winning or go-ahead hits to the best hitters in any given lineup.