Christensen: Mauer Needs To Swing

[pipers44]

I will admit I am not a stats geek, but I do know that stats never tell the whole story. So, Brock or anyone else, explain to me why he doesn't drive more runs in. He has never driven in more than 96 in his career. My take is that he typically slaps a single to left which does not result in the runner at second scoring very often. He also does not look to be aggressive enough when the count is in his favor.

[Nick Nelson]

There are a lot of different factors with Mauer. As a catcher, he doesn't play as much as a lot of high-RBI 1B/OF sluggers because he needs more days off and gets hurt more. He's frequently had very, very bad hitters directly in front of him (the No. 2 spot has been an embarrassment for the Twins many times in the past decade). He doesn't hit a lot of home runs, which are a major source of RBI for many hitters.

 

Even with all this, Mauer has usually been good for 85-95 RBI in his healthy seasons, and he'll probably finish in that same window this year. Perfectly respectable, especially when you're also getting on base at a .400 clip in front of true sluggers like Willingham and Morneau.

 

There's just no way you can argue that a guy who hits .350 with RISP has been ineffective in those situations.

[jharaldson]

There's just no way you can argue that a guy who hits .350 with RISP has been ineffective in those situations.

 

I don't think most people are saying "ineffective", they are more saying why hasn't he been effective as it seems he should be. Here is an counter example to your stats above.

 

BB% With Bases Empty

Mauer - %11.0

Willingham - %11.7

 

Both guys seem to be equally patient as batters when nobody is on.

 

BB% With Men on Base

Mauer - %17.0

Willingham - %13.6

 

When runners get on it appears that Willingham is able accept a few extra walks when he gets pitched around but seems to keep the same approach. Mauer's differential is so much greater that one must assume his approach at the plates changes and he becomes more passive.

[diehardtwinsfan]

this conversation is getting ridiculous in a hurry. If Mauer suddenly changed his approach, his RISP numbers would likey drop and his RBIs would drop as well. I'm not sure what people expect out of guys, but to simply get a hit in 35% of your at bats is considered pretty good, and in Mauer's case, that's what he is doing when there are runners in scoring position.

[Ultima Ratio]

There's just no way you can argue that a guy who hits .350 with RISP has been ineffective in those situations.

 

I don't think most people are saying "ineffective", they are more saying why hasn't he been effective as it seems he should be. Here is an counter example to your stats above.

 

BB% With Bases Empty

Mauer - %11.0

Willingham - %11.7

 

Both guys seem to be equally patient as batters when nobody is on.

 

BB% With Men on Base

Mauer - %17.0

Willingham - %13.6

 

When runners get on it appears that Willingham is able accept a few extra walks when he gets pitched around but seems to keep the same approach. Mauer's differential is so much greater that one must assume his approach at the plates changes and he becomes more passive.

 

Or, that pitchers are more careful with Mauer when runners are on in front of him. There's really no stat for what you guys are really searching for... it's going to have to be an extrapolation of some sort.

[Loosey]

Tell me if I am wrong in this analysis of Mauer's game: He isn't going to try and do something he can't or wouldn't normally do. For example in this at bat. There was a pitch that was close but not what he wanted to hit or was looking for. Instead of trying to be a hero and then tapping a roller back to the pitcher or 2nd baseman he was patient and waited for his pitch which never came and yet he got on base to extend the inning (if any other player in baseball were to do this it would celebrated as a good at bat). When he waits for his pitch he is basically waiting for the pitcher to make a mistake. And when the pitcher makes a mistake he is pretty damn good at taking advantage of it. 1 out of 3 times he gets a base hit. If he were to change his game he would become something he isn't and probably would become a worse hitter. I'll take the .330 hitter with the .400+ OBP over the hitter with the .260 average and 30 HR's. Besides, the Twins already have that guy you wish Mauer was and he was the batter right after Joe who ended the game with a swing.

[Loosey]

There's just no way you can argue that a guy who hits .350 with RISP has been ineffective in those situations.

 

I don't think most people are saying "ineffective", they are more saying why hasn't he been effective as it seems he should be. Here is an counter example to your stats above.

 

BB% With Bases Empty

Mauer - %11.0

Willingham - %11.7

 

Both guys seem to be equally patient as batters when nobody is on.

 

BB% With Men on Base

Mauer - %17.0

Willingham - %13.6

 

When runners get on it appears that Willingham is able accept a few extra walks when he gets pitched around but seems to keep the same approach. Mauer's differential is so much greater that one must assume his approach at the plates changes and he becomes more passive.

 

Now add back in Willingham's OBP and Batting average and Mauer will be looking much better again. I don't know about you guys but I would rather he gets on base than swing at a pitcher's pitch and make an out.

[jharaldson]

There's just no way you can argue that a guy who hits .350 with RISP has been ineffective in those situations.

 

I don't think most people are saying "ineffective", they are more saying why hasn't he been effective as it seems he should be. Here is an counter example to your stats above.

 

BB% With Bases Empty

Mauer - %11.0

Willingham - %11.7

 

Both guys seem to be equally patient as batters when nobody is on.

 

BB% With Men on Base

Mauer - %17.0

Willingham - %13.6

 

When runners get on it appears that Willingham is able accept a few extra walks when he gets pitched around but seems to keep the same approach. Mauer's differential is so much greater that one must assume his approach at the plates changes and he becomes more passive.

 

Or, that pitchers are more careful with Mauer when runners are on in front of him. There's really no stat for what you guys are really searching for... it's going to have to be an extrapolation of some sort.

 

Why would pitchers be more careful around Mauer this year than Willingham? Willingham has an OPS over 60 points higher than Mauer? Wouldn't they garner similar respect and have similar adjustments to their Walk Rate?

[Ultima Ratio]

There's just no way you can argue that a guy who hits .350 with RISP has been ineffective in those situations.

 

I don't think most people are saying "ineffective", they are more saying why hasn't he been effective as it seems he should be. Here is an counter example to your stats above.

 

BB% With Bases Empty

Mauer - %11.0

Willingham - %11.7

 

Both guys seem to be equally patient as batters when nobody is on.

 

BB% With Men on Base

Mauer - %17.0

Willingham - %13.6

 

When runners get on it appears that Willingham is able accept a few extra walks when he gets pitched around but seems to keep the same approach. Mauer's differential is so much greater that one must assume his approach at the plates changes and he becomes more passive.

 

Or, that pitchers are more careful with Mauer when runners are on in front of him. There's really no stat for what you guys are really searching for... it's going to have to be an extrapolation of some sort.

 

Why would pitchers be more careful around Mauer this year than Willingham? Willingham has an OPS over 60 points higher than Mauer? Wouldn't they garner similar respect and have similar adjustments to their Walk Rate?

 

Impossible to say for sure. I think the closest, most relevant stat is aveRISP, where Mauer is much higher. Two edged sword: 1) This is why in a one run game we should want Mauer over Hammer to swing for a hit. 2) opossing pitchers know that and may pitch around him.

 

Now in a 3-run game in the ninth, of course you want Hammer over Mauer at the plate. What makes this situation interesting is that all we needed was one run to take the lead in the ninth. We had our best hitter at the plate to score that run and he didn't swing at two strikes. The only serious argument we can have about that situation is whether Mauer should have swung and/or whether the pitches were so good that it's better that he didn't.

[pipers44]

There are a lot of different factors with Mauer. As a catcher, he doesn't play as much as a lot of high-RBI 1B/OF sluggers because he needs more days off and gets hurt more. He's frequently had very, very bad hitters directly in front of him (the No. 2 spot has been an embarrassment for the Twins many times in the past decade). He doesn't hit a lot of home runs, which are a major source of RBI for many hitters.

 

Even with all this, Mauer has usually been good for 85-95 RBI in his healthy seasons, and he'll probably finish in that same window this year. Perfectly respectable, especially when you're also getting on base at a .400 clip in front of true sluggers like Willingham and Morneau.

 

There's just no way you can argue that a guy who hits .350 with RISP has been ineffective in those situations.

 

2 seasons that he has had 85 or more rbis, can't call that "usually". IMO he is one of the best hitters in baseball, but he does not drive in enough runs or hit for enough power for this team. I believe he can and should do more even if it means sacrificing some average or OBP.

[pipers44]

I'll take the .330 hitter with the .400+ OBP over the hitter with the .260 average and 30 HR's. Besides, the Twins already have that guy you wish Mauer was and he was the batter right after Joe who ended the game with a swing.

 

I don't believe he has to be a .260 hitter. I think he is capable of being a .300, 20HR 100rbi with a slight adjustment in approach.

[CDog]

Mauer's differential is so much greater that one must assume his approach at the plates changes and he becomes more passive.

 

I don't think you know what "must" means.

[jharaldson]

Mauer's differential is so much greater that one must assume his approach at the plates changes and he becomes more passive.

 

I don't think you know what "must" means.

 

Fixed it for you.

 

Mauer's differential is so much greater that it seems likely his approach at the plates changes and he becomes more passive.

 

Other than grammer issues do you have any explanation why Mauer is almost %55 more likely to take a walk when men are on base as opposed to when the bases are empty? Especially when given a direct comp that shows different behavior?

[IdahoPilgrim]

Why would pitchers be more careful around Mauer this year than Willingham? Willingham has an OPS over 60 points higher than Mauer? Wouldn't they garner similar respect and have similar adjustments to their Walk Rate?

 

Because Willingham's numbers are inflated by a fantastic start, and Mauer's are deflated by a terrible start.

 

Look at their stats over the past two weeks - Willingham has an OPS about .690 and OBP of .277. Managers and pitchers know who's hot and who's slumping. Given their recent performance, I'd rather pitch to Willingham than Mauer. That's exactly what Seattle did, and it worked for them.

[CDog]

Mauer's differential is so much greater that one must assume his approach at the plates changes and he becomes more passive.

 

I don't think you know what "must" means.

 

Fixed it for you.

 

Mauer's differential is so much greater that it seems likely his approach at the plates changes and he becomes more passive.

 

Other than grammer issues do you have any explanation why Mauer is almost %55 more likely to take a walk when men are on base as opposed to when the bases are empty? Especially when given a direct comp that shows different behavior?

 

Ummm...different pitches and stuff? It wasn't a grammar issue, it was a lack of thought issue to be unable to come up with another explanation. Which makes your correction almost as incorrect as your original. Analyze some pitches and baseless assumptions can fall out of the discussion.

[Willihammer]

Not every situation with men on base is a game winning / 9th inning situation as referred to by artical in the OP. In the bottom of the 3rd with runners on, taking a walk can lead to a crooked inning and blow the SP out of the game. This is a strategically sounder approach to winning games and series than swinging at breaking pitches in the zone, or any balls out of the zone when the hitter's ahead in the count (and men are on base). Sure you can drive in runs via fielder's choice but its better to get more runners on first anyway if that's your goal. The only downside to this strategy is that in a handful of cases where the runner is on 2nd or third and taking a walk opens an inning ending double play - or possibly a late game situation where the game is on the line. However Willihammer is among league leaders in WPA so from an opponents standpoint, you merely pitch to whoever gives the platoon advantage as either hitter is a pretty potent poison. This of course means that a righthander would sooner pitch around Mauer when men are on base to get to Williamhammmer.

[Nick Nelson]

BB% With Bases Empty

Mauer - %11.0

Willingham - %11.7

 

Both guys seem to be equally patient as batters when nobody is on.

 

BB% With Men on Base

Mauer - %17.0

Willingham - %13.6

 

When runners get on it appears that Willingham is able accept a few extra walks when he gets pitched around but seems to keep the same approach. Mauer's differential is so much greater that one must assume his approach at the plates changes and he becomes more passive.

Of course, with men on Willingham also strikes out 21% of the time and hits .272, whereas Mauer strikes out 14% and hits .335. Willingham is more aggressive and comes up with more XBH, to be sure, but he also makes more outs. I think we can all agree that making an out is a lot more damaging to a rally than walking to first, right?

 

I mean, clearly any time Mauer drew a walk it means he was thrown four balls. I'm sure he could chase more, strike out more, lower his average and maybe increase his power output, but why? Not everyone has to be that type of hitter. The Twins lineup already has guys like that, and there are lots of guys around the league with that approach. Few do what Mauer does as well as he does.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Other than grammer issues do you have any explanation why Mauer is almost %55 more likely to take a walk when men are on base as opposed to when the bases are empty? Especially when given a direct comp that shows different behavior?

 

The entire league walks about 25% more often with RISP. Bad pitchers put runners in scoring position often. Bad pitchers usually walk guys more often, too. Players tend to have more success against bad pitchers.

 

Too many assumptions are being made in this thread. Does Mauer walk a little more often than most with RISP? Yeah. He's also near the top of the league in pitches per AB, too. Guys who take a lot of pitches tend to get walked, especially against bad pitchers who walk a lot of guys (ie. put runners in scoring position in the first place).

[BeefMaster]

Thought experiment: Would the folks who are complaining about Mauer's approach be making the same complaints if Span took a walk in that situation? If not, why not?

[SeanS7921]

All Joe C wanted was to rip on Mauer as that gets the Mob going. I totally dislike him because of that, but that's what he did. A large group of Twins fans loath Mauer because of the money he makes. He got hurt last year so now is soft. Now in 2012 he is not clutch. A lot think he isn't playing that great this year either. If you did a poll you would see a large percentage say Plouffe is having a better year that Joe Mauer. 19HR is a lot better than a 317AVE, 412OBP and 3.8WAR.

[one_eyed_jack]

Thought experiment: Would the folks who are complaining about Mauer's approach be making the same complaints if Span took a walk in that situation? If not, why not?

 

---Of course not, silly, because Span is not being paid $23 million per year. And that's apparently what should be the primary controlling factor here. When presented with the question of what a guy should do in a particular hitting situation, before you get to questions about things like the count, the score, the runners on base, etc., the first thing you ask is what his salary is. That's right, you can't really discuss what a guy's approach in a particular plate appearance should be until you know how much money he makes.

 

But seriously, good question. I asked the same thing about Morneau earlier.

 

Another thought experiment. Would the people ripping on Mauer for taking a walk there be defending him had he swung and made an out? Would they be praising his uncharacteristic aggressiveness? Or would they point to that as a sign of him getting jittery in the clutch?

[Alex]

I think this topic, and thus the original article, is preposterous. I really like Joe C., but this was one of his more disappointing articles.

 

Mauer, first and foremost, doesn't make outs, and he's one of the best in the league at that. That's because of his approach at the plate and that approach at the plate is why he has a high average; he swings at pitches that he knows he can either hit well or are strike 3. You can't separate those two things. Those of you that say he should have swung because he has a high average with RISP are missing. He changes this approach and he's less likely to get a hit.

 

Now focusing on the at-bat, assuming we agree that he had one pitch to hit, we really don't know what he was looking for. I'd personally give Mauer the benefit of the doubt due to his success and assume that it wasn't the pitch he was looking for.

[Kobs]

I will admit I am not a stats geek, but I do know that stats never tell the whole story. So, Brock or anyone else, explain to me why he doesn't drive more runs in. He has never driven in more than 96 in his career. My take is that he typically slaps a single to left which does not result in the runner at second scoring very often. He also does not look to be aggressive enough when the count is in his favor.

 

He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs.

[pipers44]

I will admit I am not a stats geek, but I do know that stats never tell the whole story. So, Brock or anyone else, explain to me why he doesn't drive more runs in. He has never driven in more than 96 in his career. My take is that he typically slaps a single to left which does not result in the runner at second scoring very often. He also does not look to be aggressive enough when the count is in his favor.

 

He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs.

 

He doesn't often for sure, but is he capable? I believe he is and should look to drive the ball more. I believe he can drive a ball more (by the way, driving the ball and taking aggressive swings doesn't have to result in a HR, more doubles/triples are perfectly acceptable and will result in more rbis)without making a huge sacrifice in avg and OBP.

[scottz]

Next exit: impasse.

 

The OBP-stat guys look at it from a stats point of view, and I can totally see their view. I love stats myself.

The more traditional/older/emotional (RBI-stat) guys look at it from the emotional point of view, and I can see their view as well.

 

I think I land more in the emotional park on this point. You want your best hitter to strike fear into your opponent. If your best hitter is in the on deck circle, you want the pitcher aching to get out of the inning before he comes up. When he steps into the batters' box, you want the pitcher sweating. Mauer is clearly the Twins best hitter. Clearly. But I don't think opposing teams are afraid of him. They are "careful", for sure. But that's a totally different mindset.

 

I think that is what Joe C. was tapping into. And it was mentioned earlier in this thread as well, that situations can and do dictate your approach (except they don't seem to with Mauer - he just does what he does and he's very good at it).

 

I don't think there is a right answer here. But I would absolutely love it if Joe went up there one time and took one, just one, I'm-gonna-hit-this-ball-to-the-moon swing on the first pitch, even if he missed it by a foot and a half. Do what you will for the rest of the at bat. But let the other team know you have it in you.

 

New topic: Do you marry the very cute, very sweet girl who likes to listen to you talk about your golf game or do you marry the super hot chick who is the life of the party and occasionally goes a little crazy if you don't pay enough attention to her. Both love you equally.

[Kobs]

He doesn't often for sure, but is he capable? I believe he is and should look to drive the ball more. I believe he can drive a ball more (by the way, driving the ball and taking aggressive swings doesn't have to result in a HR, more doubles/triples are perfectly acceptable and will result in more rbis)without making a huge sacrifice in avg and OBP.

 

Guys with a lot of RBI hit home runs. You know why? They get one for every home run. They also get one for every guy on base when they hit said home run.

 

Stop complaining that Joe Mauer is Joe Mauer.

[Kobs]

I think I land more in the emotional park on this point. You want your best hitter to strike fear into your opponent. If your best hitter is in the on deck circle, you want the pitcher aching to get out of the inning before he comes up. When he steps into the batters' box, you want the pitcher sweating. Mauer is clearly the Twins best hitter. Clearly. But I don't think opposing teams are afraid of him. They are "careful", for sure. But that's a totally different mindset.

 

I think that is what Joe C. was tapping into.

 

I'd agree. He was clearly tapping into irrational bull****. Go watch a movie about baseball. I think you'd be better served.

[jokin]

Not every situation with men on base is a game winning / 9th inning situation as referred to by artical in the OP. In the bottom of the 3rd with runners on, taking a walk can lead to a crooked inning and blow the SP out of the game. This is a strategically sounder approach to winning games and series than swinging at breaking pitches in the zone, or any balls out of the zone when the hitter's ahead in the count (and men are on base). Sure you can drive in runs via fielder's choice but its better to get more runners on first anyway if that's your goal. The only downside to this strategy is that in a handful of cases where the runner is on 2nd or third and taking a walk opens an inning ending double play - or possibly a late game situation where the game is on the line. However Willihammer is among league leaders in WPA so from an opponents standpoint, you merely pitch to whoever gives the platoon advantage as either hitter is a pretty potent poison. This of course means that a righthander would sooner pitch around Mauer when men are on base to get to Williamhammmer.

Leutge is a lefty.

[Guest USAFChief]

I will admit I am not a stats geek, but I do know that stats never tell the whole story. So, Brock or anyone else, explain to me why he doesn't drive more runs in. He has never driven in more than 96 in his career. My take is that he typically slaps a single to left which does not result in the runner at second scoring very often. He also does not look to be aggressive enough when the count is in his favor.

 

He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs. He doesn't hit home runs.

 

I think you meant "he doesn't hit for power."

 

He hasn't once reached 60 XBHs in a season. Not even 2009. He's currently 5th on the team in XBHs. Never driven in 100 runs in a season, over 90 only once, despite hitting 3rd most of his career. Some of that you can chalk up to things outside his control...some of it you can chalk up to a passive approach and being perfectly content to slap the ball softly to left.

 

By all means, put your fingers in your ears and your hands over your eyes and sing "la la la" every time a legitimate criticism of Joe Mauer occurs if you wish. That doesn't mean there aren't legitimate criticisms of his approach to hitting, depsite the fact he gets on base a lot.

[scottz]

I think I land more in the emotional park on this point. You want your best hitter to strike fear into your opponent. If your best hitter is in the on deck circle, you want the pitcher aching to get out of the inning before he comes up. When he steps into the batters' box, you want the pitcher sweating. Mauer is clearly the Twins best hitter. Clearly. But I don't think opposing teams are afraid of him. They are "careful", for sure. But that's a totally different mindset.

 

I think that is what Joe C. was tapping into.

 

I'd agree. He was clearly tapping into irrational bull****. Go watch a movie about baseball. I think you'd be better served.

 

Talk about irrational, bro. Bring it down a notch. You know me not.

 

It is my opinion that anyone who doesn't, at a minimum, acknowledge that there is an emotional component to baseball, is to my mind, quite irrational. Or at least a bit out of touch with why any sport is played in the first place.

 

Respectfully,

scottz