Castrovince: Twins Relying on Pitching Analytics

[Seth Stohs]

Anthony Castrovince, who I believe used to be an MLB.com beat writer for Cleveland and now writes nationally (I believe), wrote about what improvements the Twins have made since last year. Since there haven't been a lot of player changes, he was curious.

 

It sounds like the improved catching situation along with much better analytical information and scouting reports are also helping out the pitchers. 

 

 

Former Mets pitcher Jeremy Hefner was hired as an advance scout, doing video and statistical analysis of upcoming opponents. His work is supported by other analysts in the Twins' front office who build reports and heat maps. That work is then translated to the coaching staff, with Jeff Pickler -- a newly added member of manager Paul Molitor's group -- serving as the key point man. Minnesota brought in veteran catchers Jason Castro and Chris Gimenez not simply because of Castro's well-regarded reputation for pitch-framing or Gimenez's past ties to Falvey and Levine in Cleveland and Texas, but because they knew both men have the ability to embrace the information and implement it in their game-calling.

 

There is a lot of good information in here, quotes from Neil Allen about more of the differences.

 

http://m.twins.mlb.com/news/article/230443054/twins-relying-on-improved-pitching-analytics/

 

(Fixed URL)

[Mike Sixel]

 

Anthony Castrovince, who I believe used to be an MLB.com beat writer for Cleveland and now writes nationally (I believe), wrote about what improvements the Twins have made since last year. Since there haven't been a lot of player changes, he was curious.

 

It sounds like the improved catching situation along with much better analytical information and scouting reports are also helping out the pitchers. 

 

 

There is a lot of good information in here, quotes from Neil Allen about more of the differences.

 

http://m.twins.mlb.com/news/article/230443054/twins-relying-on-improved-pitching-analytics/ 

 

link didn't work for me

[Craig Arko]

 

link didn't work for me

Try:

 

http://m.twins.mlb.com/news/article/230443054/twins-relying-on-improved-pitching-analytics/

[Mike Sixel]

Super encouraging about the present, a major indictment of the past.

[Craig Arko]

 

Super encouraging about the present, a major indictment of the past.

That's one of those nice things about the past; it's the past.

[nicksaviking]

I don't know how to type how happy this makes me feel without it sounding either sappy or sarcastic. Such welcomed news.

[goulik]

Awesome! This article excites me about the future. If we can get Garver onto that same page as Castro and Gimenez and Berrios/Mejia on that same page as Santiago/Hughs/Santana, now we have a rotation.

 

There is the thing...Who will buy into this new system and who won't. Flush the system of those that won't and move forward. (That includes coaching) This is all another sign that we are dealing with a one year audition for EVERYONE and the big changes will happen mid-season trades, end of season cuts and firings.

[Han Joelo]

This is a great article. There should be 14 pages of comments. This and other things I've read make me feel like Allen might have been gritting his teeth in frustration about the way the org went about coaching pitchers, and makes me understand better why he was retained.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

Just affirming what I thought and hoped was going on, just with some details. Good to know its being done and emphasized, not just dabbled in and lightly considered.

[jimmer]

Our rotation:

FIP: 27th in MLB, 14th in AL
XFIP: 29th in MLB, last in AL
K/9: 29th in MLB, last in AL
BB/9: 22nd in MLB, 12th in AL

Last in IP which is a bit deceptive since we have only played 35, so Im sure that goes up.

 

Tied for 26th in WAR (tied for 14th in WAR in AL)

Rotation is not anything to brag about.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Our rotation:

 

FIP: 27th in MLB, 14th in AL

XFIP: 29th in MLB, last in AL

K/9: 29th in MLB, last in AL

BB/9: 22nd in MLB, 12th in AL

 

Last in IP which is a bit deceptive since we have only played 35, so Im sure that goes up.

 

Tied for 26th in WAR (tied for 14th in WAR in AL)

 

Rotation is not anything to brag about.

agreed, the starting rotation is nothing to brag about. The rate stats are an excellent way to describe it.

 

With all of the rain outs, shouldn't the two counting stats (IP and WAR) be low in the rankings compared to the rest of the league?

[Oxtung]

 

Our rotation:

FIP: 27th in MLB, 14th in AL
XFIP: 29th in MLB, last in AL
K/9: 29th in MLB, last in AL
BB/9: 22nd in MLB, 12th in AL

Last in IP which is a bit deceptive since we have only played 35, so Im sure that goes up.

 

Tied for 26th in WAR (tied for 14th in WAR in AL)

Rotation is not anything to brag about.

In addition the HR rate is up, probably due to the FB rate also being up.

 

What is suppressing the ERA compared to last season appears to be an unsustainable BABIP @ .261 versus last seasons .315.  This is almost the exact opposite of the Cubs who had a league best .252 last season and now are at 2nd worst .318 this season.

 

For anyone that is curious, because I was, BABIP has a .370 Year-to-Year correlation with itself implying this is not particularly controllable by the pitchers.  IE...it's not a skill.

[Doomtints]

SSS + ignoring the facts that the Twins:

 

1) Are playing better defense

2) *Did* actually have a lot of turnover with the staff.  No Nolasco, no Meyer, no Milone, and heck no May.  And we're not even getting into Light & Albers being gone, or Duffey going to the pen.  The Twins have *one* starting pitcher left who was a starter at the beginning of last year. That's almost maximum turnover.

3) Have only had 1 good SP, though Berrios seems to have arrived so this may soon be 2.

4) Have played a very bad Royals team a fortunate number of times.