Berrios and the Front Office

[Brock Beauchamp]

To start this off, I want to see Berrios as much as anyone. I don't like most of this rotation and, going from a stat line, Berrios would look good in a Twins uniform right now.

 

But the accusations I see floating around this board seem pretty extreme so I'm going to tackle them one at a time.

 

1. Berrios is ready. Is he? I haven't watched him pitch to more than a handful of batters all season and I'm not a pitching coach so I'm basically in the dark here. If someone can give me more substantial information beyond a box score why he's ready, I'd love to hear it. No snark, I'd honestly love to hear it.

 

2. The new front office is the same as the old. This one baffles me. Derek Falvey was given the lion's share of the credit for the Cleveland pitching staff's emergence a few years back. He was in the scouting department when Cleveland acquired Kluber, Bauer, and Carrasco. He was promoted along with those guys until he was Assistant GM when that staff led Cleveland to the World Series. Maybe it's possible Falvey knows what he's doing here and his goals are quite different than that of the old front office. Looking at an end result, finding similarity, and assuming the rest of the process is the same is a good way to be wrong about something.

 

3. The front office lied about Berrios stretching out after the WBC. This is really problematic for me. I can't count how many times I've given a loose framework to accomplish a task, only to later find there is something significantly wrong that blows up said timeline. Opinions change as new data presents itself. There could be a dozen reasons why the front office slammed on the brakes after seeing Berrios pitch a month in Rochester.

 

4. Berrios can't be worse than what the Twins have. Well, as evidenced last season, he most certainly can be worse than what we've seen. Jose Berrios was a horrible, awful pitcher last season. Kyle Gibson is merely terrible by comparison. Again, I want to see Berrios as much as anyone but the Minnesota-freakin-Twins are 14-11 right now and half a game out of first place. IN THE MONTH OF MAY. I didn't see this coming. You didn't see this coming. Hell, the front office may not have seen it coming. Given the start, it's reasonable for the front office to not throw caution to the wind and let it fly if they see something that indicates the result would be terrible.

 

5. This is some sort of punishment of Berrios and/or development malfeasance. Again, Falvey is known for two things: a. building a hell of a pitching staff and b. being one of the most affable and likable guys in baseball. The idea that he'd punish what may be the brightest pitching star in the organization makes no sense whatsoever.

 

6. If Buxton can play, so can Berrios. Byron Buxton was very, very bad at the plate early in the season but he was and continues to be a fantastic defender, probably the best in the league. That's worth a lot to a team, especially one that rostered a beer league pitching staff out of Opening Day. Berrios, on the other hand, could virtually assure a Twins loss once every five days. It's the difference between replacement level (Buxton) and a guy who was nearly two full wins under replacement last season in just 12 starts (Berrios).

 

7. Seriously, Kyle Gibson. I get it. We love a good punching bag. I'm thoroughly done with Gibson as much as anyone. But if the front office needs some more time with Berrios to fix something about him, do you really want to sacrifice months or years of Berrios scuffling just to see Gibson not make a month or so of starts? I'm patient enough to wait a bit longer, even if watching Kyle Gibson pitch is like a weekly dentist appointment.

 

I'm frustrated, just like everyone else. I want to see Berrios pitch and I want to see him pitch badly. But we shouldn't let our frustration turn into tilting at windmills, manufacturing maliciousness and/or incompetence based on very limited information, particularly with a new front office that came from such esteemed organizations.

[Vanimal46]

I find it frustrating and fascinating at the same time that Berrios can have such a sexy stat line in AAA, yet not have command. When someone describes a pitcher as not having command, I think Alex Meyer.... Someone who can't find the plate, and walks several (4+ BB/9) people per game. Not Berrios' 2.2 BB/9 line he has now. 

Admittedly I've not watched Berrios pitch. I'm just a fan who watches the MLB team and wants to see him as soon as possible. 

[USAFChief]

"I'm frustrated, just like everyone else. I want to see Berrios pitch and I want to see him pitch badly."

 

Then he should be up, no?  

 

But seriously:

 

I, too, want to give the new front office every benefit of the doubt.

 

But I've already had so many things to question...lack of action to address the pitching staff over the winter, Santana still one of the few reserves, neither Vargas/Park on the opening day roster all come to mind...that it makes it tougher.

 

In this situation, it's giving starts to Gibson and Tepesch over Berrios that has me scratching my head.  Gibson has options.  Tepesch seems like the guy you turn to as a last resort, rather than the guy who gets promoted first.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I find it frustrating and fascinating at the same time that Berrios can have such a sexy stat line in AAA, yet not have command. When someone describes a pitcher as not having command, I think Alex Meyer.... Someone who can't find the plate, and walks several (4+ BB/9) people per game. Not Berrios' 2.2 BB/9 line he has now.

I view it this way (based on comments from the front office and management):

 

Berrios lacks command.

 

Meyer lacks control.

 

One can have control but not command. Berrios, unlike Meyer, hits the strike zone... but is he hitting the strike zone where he plans to hit it? I don't know that for sure.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

But I've already had so many things to question...lack of action to address the pitching staff over the winter, Santana still one of the few reserves, neither Vargas/Park on the opening day roster all come to mind...that it makes it tougher.

 

In this situation, it's giving starts to Gibson and Tepesch over Berrios that has me scratching my head.  Gibson has options.  Tepesch seems like the guy you turn to as a last resort, rather than the guy who gets promoted first.

Sure, there are things to question. I didn't like the Santana move. I don't like the 13 man pitching staff. I don't like Tepesch... in fact, I kinda hate the idea of Tepesch pitching for the Twins.

 

But Falvey was lauded for his ability to build a pitching staff. And, thus far, the results have been solid. I'm going to need two things to happen for me to begin intensely criticizing their moves:

 

1. More than 25 games of play into their first season at the helm.

 

2. The Twins to start losing more baseball games than they win.

 

That doesn't mean I don't shake my head and mentally scream "NICK TEPESCH WHAT THE **** ARE YOU KIDDING ME WHY IS THIS HAPPENING DOES THE WORLD HATE ME", but it does mean that I'm still unsure whether there's something I'm missing here (which there almost assuredly is).

[drivlikejehu]

I don't think Berrios' performance in AAA (and the minors more generally) is consistent with a guy that has no command. Granted, walks are not determinative on that score, but he would get hit harder if he threw that many bad pitches. And a few more starts in AAA won't make any significant impact on his skillset, regardless.

 

Whatever Berrios' limitations may be, AAA hitters obviously cannot expose them. While it's easy to talk about making adjustments at that level, it's hard when the plate appearances develop so differently than at the MLB level. PAs that start 0-1 rather than 1-0, for instance, because the AAA hitter chases a pitch most MLB players wouldn't.

 

He needs to learn to pitch in the Majors. I'm aware of Falvey's credentials and have been more deferential than most to the front office's decision-making, but keeping Berrios down much longer is indefensible.

[Mike Sixel]

We can only judge them on their actions. I'm not sure what this FO did to "build a pitching staff". Isn't this the same pitching staff as last year, other than Tepesch?

 

If the new standard for questioning the FO is that we have to actually scout the minor leagues, I guess I can stop coming to the site.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't think Berrios' performance in AAA (and the minors more generally) is consistent with a guy that has no command. Granted, walks are not determinative on that score, but he would get hit harder if he threw that many bad pitches. And a few more starts in AAA won't make any significant impact on his skillset, regardless.

 

Whatever Berrios' limitations may be, AAA hitters obviously cannot expose them. While it's easy to talk about making adjustments at that level, it's hard when the plate appearances develop so differently than at the MLB level. PAs that start 0-1 rather than 1-0, for instance, because the AAA hitter chases a pitch most MLB players wouldn't.

 

He needs to learn to pitch in the Majors. I'm aware of Falvey's credentials and have been more deferential than most to the front office's decision-making, but keeping Berrios down much longer is indefensible.

I agree that it's unlikely Berrios has no command but it's not a binary situation, either. He could have mediocre command, which the front office doesn't believe will play in the majors.

 

While I agree that keeping Berrios in the minors will become indefensible at some point, I don't think we're anywhere near that situation yet. The kid is 22 years old and we're 25 games into the MLB season. We're less than a sixth of the way through the 2017 season.

 

If we reach 60 games and he's not here, it'll become pretty damned annoying. If we reach 100 games and he's not here, it probably becomes a WTF situation. But we're basically half a season away from that point.

 

Then again, so much depends on what the Twins are doing in the Central as well. And who Berrios should be replacing on the MLB roster.

 

Personally, I'd be surprised if Berrios isn't here well before the break.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

3. Didn't Molitor flat out say that Berrios needed to be stretched out? That is completely different than you having an IT project blow up in your face. They are moving the goalposts on this kid.

 

I will bet there is a point at which a pitcher like Berrios can throw too many innings at AAA before he is at some kind of risk, and it sure feels like the Twins are testing it that. All for a Nick Tepesch start..or two or three. Because if Tepesch "pitches well" on Saturday.........

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

 

Berrios lacks command.

 

Meyer lacks control.

 

.

BINGO!

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

We can only judge them on their actions. I'm not sure what this FO did to "build a pitching staff". Isn't this the same pitching staff as last year, other than Tepesch?

 

If the new standard for questioning the FO is that we have to actually scout the minor leagues, I guess I can stop coming to the site.

No, you don't have to actually scout the minor leagues but with a lack of information on hand, a little humility goes a long way. I'm not arguing whether an action should be questioned, I'm arguing that proclaiming certainty in a situation where we have limited information is foolish.

 

Falvey's specialty is pitching. He needs a bit more leash than 25 games to fix a broken organization coming off a 103 loss season. And, hell, the Twins are actually winning right now.

[DaveW]

 

We can only judge them on their actions. I'm not sure what this FO did to "build a pitching staff". Isn't this the same pitching staff as last year, other than Tepesch?

 

If the new standard for questioning the FO is that we have to actually scout the minor leagues, I guess I can stop coming to the site.

The same "new" Front Office that was gushing about Kyle Gibson and how he would have a good year.

Yeah, color me unimpressed.

The crappy thing is, this lineup, defense is good enough to "hang in the hunt", if they would have actually tried to address the SP (even just a single signing or trade) and the rotation would be in much better shape, potentially even good enough to keep the team in the hunt. As of now though?

We have an ace (so far) in Santana, and a couple of #4/#5's in Santiago and Hughes. You need more than that to compete. Tespech, Mejia, Gibson? None of them are anything more than AAAA types at this stage. Duffey is the one current guy who could help out, but of course he is getting the Trevor May treatment.

Berrios should be up. If he sucks again just send him back down, Gibson has options, or just put Gibson in the pen. Or just DFA him, when he continues to pitch this bad the rest of the year, there is no way the Twins will or should goto arb with him anyways.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

3. Didn't Molitor flat out say that Berrios needed to be stretched out? That is completely different than you having an IT project blow up in your face. They are moving the goalposts on this kid.

Goalposts get moved all the time when new information presents itself. I'm not talking about something blowing up in my face, I'm talking about digging into a project and uncovering unexpected issues.

 

Things change. You adjust as they change.

[DaveW]

 

 

Falvey's specialty is pitching. He needs a bit more leash than 25 games to fix a broken organization coming off a 103 loss season. And, hell, the Twins are actually winning right now.

Falvey had an entire off-season to address the pitching. Instead he did nothing.
They did take one SP with upside (Duffey) and put him in the pen, which was perplexing to say the least.

Color me unimpressed with Falvey's pitching strategy.

[drjim]

 

I don't think Berrios' performance in AAA (and the minors more generally) is consistent with a guy that has no command. Granted, walks are not determinative on that score, but he would get hit harder if he threw that many bad pitches. And a few more starts in AAA won't make any significant impact on his skillset, regardless.

 

Whatever Berrios' limitations may be, AAA hitters obviously cannot expose them. While it's easy to talk about making adjustments at that level, it's hard when the plate appearances develop so differently than at the MLB level. PAs that start 0-1 rather than 1-0, for instance, because the AAA hitter chases a pitch most MLB players wouldn't.

 

He needs to learn to pitch in the Majors. I'm aware of Falvey's credentials and have been more deferential than most to the front office's decision-making, but keeping Berrios down much longer is indefensible.

 

It's not going to happen, but it would be interesting to hear the exact reasoning of keeping him down.

 

The little I have gleaned is command and a desire for him to dominate/gain confidence. I would want a little more.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Falvey had an entire off-season to address the pitching. Instead he did nothing.
They did take one SP with upside (Duffey) and put him in the pen, which was perplexing to say the least.

Color me unimpressed with Falvey's pitching strategy.

I was pretty vocal about not liking their bullpen moves this offseason.

 

But the rotation was pretty much locked in once the Dozier trade didn't happen. The starting pitcher market was horrible. There wasn't a single guy I wanted to sign, from my recollection.

[clutterheart]

I have been under the impression that Tepesch is on the team as a bullpen arm.  So I am not worked up that is he is on the roster.  But if he gets multiple starts I might start looking for my pitchfork.

 

I would rather Berrios get starts over Hughes and keep starting Gibson every 5th day for at least a few more months.   This team is a fringe playoff team at best.  So they have to give as many starts as they can to young players - in AAA or MLB.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It's not going to happen, but it would be interesting to hear the exact reasoning of keeping him down.

 

The little I have gleaned is command and a desire for him to dominate/gain confidence. I would want a little more.

As do we all.

 

But the Twins don't really owe us anything here. They may have their reasons to be closed-mouth about what's happening with Berrios.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Falvey had an entire off-season to address the pitching. Instead he did nothing.
They did take one SP with upside (Duffey) and put him in the pen, which was perplexing to say the least.

Color me unimpressed with Falvey's pitching strategy.

 

He didn't do nothing.

 

He signed Belisle and Breslow. And Tepesch.

[howieramone2]

 

To start this off, I want to see Berrios as much as anyone. I don't like most of this rotation and, going from a stat line, Berrios would look good in a Twins uniform right now.

 

But the accusations I see floating around this board seem pretty extreme so I'm going to tackle them one at a time.

 

1. Berrios is ready. Is he? I haven't watched him pitch to more than a handful of batters all season and I'm not a pitching coach so I'm basically in the dark here. If someone can give me more substantial information beyond a box score why he's ready, I'd love to hear it. No snark, I'd honestly love to hear it.

 

2. The new front office is the same as the old. This one baffles me. Derek Falvey was given the lion's share of the credit for the Cleveland pitching staff's emergence a few years back. He was in the scouting department when Cleveland acquired Kluber, Bauer, and Carrasco. He was promoted along with those guys until he was Assistant GM when that staff led Cleveland to the World Series. Maybe it's possible Falvey knows what he's doing here and his goals are quite different than that of the old front office. Looking at an end result, finding similarity, and assuming the rest of the process is the same is a good way to be wrong about something.

 

3. The front office lied about Berrios stretching out after the WBC. This is really problematic for me. I can't count how many times I've given a loose framework to accomplish a task, only to later find there is something significantly wrong that blows up said timeline. Opinions change as new data presents itself. There could be a dozen reasons why the front office slammed on the brakes after seeing Berrios pitch a month in Rochester.

 

4. Berrios can't be worse than what the Twins have. Well, as evidenced last season, he most certainly can be worse than what we've seen. Jose Berrios was a horrible, awful pitcher last season. Kyle Gibson is merely terrible by comparison. Again, I want to see Berrios as much as anyone but the Minnesota-freakin-Twins are 14-11 right now and half a game out of first place. IN THE MONTH OF MAY. I didn't see this coming. You didn't see this coming. Hell, the front office may not have seen it coming. Given the start, it's reasonable for the front office to not throw caution to the wind and let it fly if they see something that indicates the result would be terrible.

 

5. This is some sort of punishment of Berrios and/or development malfeasance. Again, Falvey is known for two things: a. building a hell of a pitching staff and b. being one of the most affable and likable guys in baseball. The idea that he'd punish what may be the brightest pitching star in the organization makes no sense whatsoever.

 

6. If Buxton can play, so can Berrios. Byron Buxton was very, very bad at the plate early in the season but he was and continues to be a fantastic defender, probably the best in the league. That's worth a lot to a team, especially one that rostered a beer league pitching staff out of Opening Day. Berrios, on the other hand, could virtually assure a Twins loss once every five days. It's the difference between replacement level (Buxton) and a guy who was nearly two full wins under replacement last season in just 12 starts (Berrios).

 

7. Seriously, Kyle Gibson. I get it. We love a good punching bag. I'm thoroughly done with Gibson as much as anyone. But if the front office needs some more time with Berrios to fix something about him, do you really want to sacrifice months or years of Berrios scuffling just to see Gibson not make a month or so of starts? I'm patient enough to wait a bit longer, even if watching Kyle Gibson pitch is like a weekly dentist appointment.

 

I'm frustrated, just like everyone else. I want to see Berrios pitch and I want to see him pitch badly. But we shouldn't let our frustration turn into tilting at windmills, manufacturing maliciousness and/or incompetence based on very limited information, particularly with a new front office that came from such esteemed organizations.

Bingo!

[DaveW]

The Front Office and Org for the most part are the same: Other than a couple departures: TR was the only notable one, the rest of the organization is the same. So it's not shocking at all that the same AAA field staff, scouts, assistants to the GM (Antony) etc continue to bungle pitching prospects.

Again Falvey didn't address the SP situation at all. FA market was rough? Then make a trade. Trade market for Dozier wasn't good enough (Highly highly debatable)? Then trade another asset for SP.

Falvey did nothing in the off-season to make this team better, and that is a real shame. All it would have taken was a trade for a #3 to actually make this rotation look somewhat legitimate. As of now, it has negative depth, two complete black holes in the rotation (Gibby and Tespech) and Hughes, though solid so far could fall off any second (due to injury)

So far at the helm in making the team better (which is really what the GM/VP of baseball or whatever the titles are) job I give them:

For 2017: D (It would be an F, but at least they didn't do something stupid like trading Sano)
For 2018-2022: F (They literally did nothing to make the team and org better in the future)

[drivlikejehu]

 

I agree that it's unlikely Berrios has no command but it's not a binary situation, either. He could have mediocre command, which the front office doesn't believe will play in the majors.

 

While I agree that keeping Berrios in the minors will become indefensible at some point, I don't think we're anywhere near that situation yet. The kid is 22 years old and we're 25 games into the MLB season. We're less than a sixth of the way through the 2017 season.

 

If we reach 60 games and he's not here, it'll become pretty damned annoying. If we reach 100 games and he's not here, it probably becomes a WTF situation. But we're basically half a season away from that point.

 

Then again, so much depends on what the Twins are doing in the Central as well. And who Berrios should be replacing on the MLB roster.

 

Personally, I'd be surprised if Berrios isn't here well before the break.

 

Command isn't something that magically improves over the span of a couple months. If Berrios isn't an MLB pitcher, the Twins may as well just shop him around to see if another team disagrees.

 

For this season, he basically is who he is. The Twins should give him the chance to figure out whether and how that can work at the MLB level. The kind of realistic small tweaks he can make are better made in the Majors, against MLB hitters, than against ineffective opposition in AAA.

[drjim]

 

Falvey had an entire off-season to address the pitching. Instead he did nothing.
They did take one SP with upside (Duffey) and put him in the pen, which was perplexing to say the least.

Color me unimpressed with Falvey's pitching strategy.

 

What's interesting to me is not addressing pitching significantly in the offseason and still not calling up Berrios when he is (seemingly) pitching well in AAA and there is a clear need in the majors seem to be contradictory actions.

 

I understand doing little in the offseason if you want to use the season to evaluate organizational talent. But rolling with a retread for a long term opening doesn't make much sense.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Command isn't something that magically improves over the span of a couple months. If Berrios isn't an MLB pitcher, the Twins may as well just shop him around to see if another team disagrees.

 

For this season, he basically is who he is. The Twins should give him the chance to figure out whether and how that can work at the MLB level. The kind of realistic small tweaks he can make are better made in the Majors, against MLB hitters, than against ineffective opposition in AAA.

We simply can't say this for certain, which is the overall point of my post.

 

You're essentially suggesting that there's no point in trying; Berrios is who he is.

 

He's a 22 year old who developed under a different front office. We literally have no idea what problems were identified or how they're being addressed.

[drjim]

 

The Front Office and Org for the most part are the same: Other than a couple departures: TR was the only notable one, the rest of the organization is the same. So it's not shocking at all that the same AAA field staff, scouts, assistants to the GM (Antony) etc continue to bungle pitching prospects.

Again Falvey didn't address the SP situation at all. FA market was rough? Then make a trade. Trade market for Dozier wasn't good enough (Highly highly debatable)? Then trade another asset for SP.

Falvey did nothing in the off-season to make this team better, and that is a real shame. All it would have taken was a trade for a #3 to actually make this rotation look somewhat legitimate. As of now, it has negative depth, two complete black holes in the rotation (Gibby and Tespech) and Hughes, though solid so far could fall off any second (due to injury)

So far at the helm in making the team better (which is really what the GM/VP of baseball or whatever the titles are) job I give them:

For 2017: D (It would be an F, but at least they didn't do something stupid like trading Sano)
For 2018-2022: F (They literally did nothing to make the team and org better in the future)

 

Acquiring a #3 in a trade is a little harder than you suggested. Those kind of talents don't usually fly around in the offseason.

[DaveW]

 

 

He's a 22 year old who developed under a different front office. We literally have no idea what problems were identified or how they're being addressed.

*slightly different front office. Nearly the same set of "scouts", coaching staff (every level), and on field personal across the board. Oh and most of the people who helped make the decisions with Ryan are still here as well. 

Name the last starting pitcher the Twins drafted and developed into anything more than a Nick Blackburn (5th/6th starter) or Kyle Gibson (5th/6th starter)

The last one's better? Baker and Radke, both of whom made their debuts over a decade ago, and haven't been with the team in 6+ seasons.

So why exactly are we suddenly just supposed to give the FO the benefit of the doubt? Because they brought on Falvey (who has done ZERO at the helm to improve this team)?

Fool me once, shame on you, fool me for a decade plus, shame on me.

[Mike Sixel]

 

We simply can't say this for certain, which is the overall point of my post.

 

You're essentially suggesting that there's no point in trying; Berrios is who he is.

 

He's a 22 year old who developed under a different front office. We literally have no idea what problems were identified or how they're being addressed.

 

i think he's suggesting that he can't learn jack poop about getting MLB pitchers out by totally outclassing AAA hitters. 

[DaveW]

 

Acquiring a #3 in a trade is a little harder than you suggested. Those kind of talents don't usually fly around in the offseason.

Well that's why you pay the GM the big bucks!

It's hard? Yeah, that's the game/biz. The amount of excuses I hear are incredible, you don't hear any other team saying "aw shucks, we would like to improve our SP, but it's kinda hard!" those teams actually go out and get it done.

Hell it doesn't even need to be a #3! It could be a #4, which is miles ahead of what we currently have our of our #4/#5 spots in the rotation as it stands today.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

*slightly different front office. Nearly the same set of "scouts", coaching staff (every level), and on field personal across the board. Oh and most of the people who helped make the decisions with Ryan are still here as well.

Sure, but the orders coming from the top may be completely different.

 

Under the old front office, if Jack Goin went to Ryan with data points on a player, how much weight was given to that information? And do you believe Falvey gives that information the same weight?

 

In an organization this large, people aren't fired en masse when new management arrives. The organization would literally stop functioning at that point. Maybe the managers aren't responding to Falvey's new orders. Maybe they are.

 

But if they're not, I suspect they'll be escorted out the door in relative short order.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

i think he's suggesting that he can't learn jack poop about getting MLB pitchers out by totally outclassing AAA hitters. 

And I'm saying it all depends on what's being taught. The quality of opposition may not matter if Berrios is working on not tipping pitches, slightly tweaking his delivery, a more consistent arm angle, etc.

 

If the problem is something Berrios is doing internally and/or mechanically, who he's facing at the plate doesn't matter a whole lot.

 

Development shouldn't be and isn't always results-based.