Cuban Luis Robert is a FA

[Vanimal46]

19 year old Cuban OF Luis Robert was cleared by the MLB and is now an IFA... If he signs before July 2nd, he will not be subject to the new CBA rules, meaning he's going to get PAID... 

6'3" 205 lbs. and considered one of the very best prospects in the world, behind Shohei Otani. 

Here's a video that Baseball America posted showcasing Robert's swing. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ew54lxdJw9U

 

 

How much do you think he's going to get from the Yankees? I don't think the small market teams have a chance at this guy.... 

[gunnarthor]

Interesting read on deadspin - http://deadspin.com/the-next-great-cuban-baseball-prospect-is-officially-a-1794510989

 

Basically, don't expect the Twins to sign him b/c the teams that are already penalized have no reason to not go for broke.  

[Vanimal46]

Ha! We both saw it and posted on different forums... I'll go delete mine. 

 

EDIT: Nevermind, not able to do it without help from the mods. 

[Mike Sixel]

Ya, I see a zero percent chance on this one.....

[Vanimal46]

He's not subject to the new CBA rules with IFA's, so yeah... Small market teams have no chance signing this guy. Welcome to the New York Yankees or LA Dodgers Luis! 

[Mike Sixel]

 

He's not subject to the new CBA rules with IFA's, so yeah... Small market teams have no chance signing this guy. Welcome to the New York Yankees or LA Dodgers Luis! 

 

He will be if he waits 2 months....

[jimbo92107]

Obviously an impressive physical specimen, and the sound off his bat is like a firecracker. On the other hand, some of those hits would have been fielded... ;-)

 

No wonder they didn't have any kids in the infield. Somebody might get hurt.

 

It does give me one idea, tho: Why not send Byron Buxton to Cuba for a little "vacation?" See if he can find the guy that taught Luis Robert to swing like that, and to follow the ball all the way in. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

How much do you think he's going to get from the Yankees? I don't think the small market teams have a chance at this guy.... 

The Yankees still can't give him more the $300k before July 2nd, as a result of exceeding their bonus pool in the 2014-2015 period.  Same for the D-backs, Angels, Rays, Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants and Royals.

 

After July 2nd, the Yankees can give him up to $4.75 mil.  But no team could give him more than $5.75 mil at that point, and 10 teams will still be capped at $300k for any single player: the aforementioned Cubs, Dodgers, Giants and Royals, plus the A’s, Astros, Braves, Cardinals, Nationals, Padres and Reds:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/2017-18-international-bonus-pools/

 

I'd guess that puts the A’s, Astros, Braves, Cardinals, Nationals, Padres and Reds as the favorites to land Robert before July 2nd, since they have already exceeded their 2016-2017 pools and would face no further penalties for spending big on Robert (other than the tax).  BA has apparently linked him to the White Sox previously -- but presumably they'd have to go over their pool to sign him.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm guessing Whities or Astros at this point.

[drjim]

I'm going with Cardinals. They have the most money and no high draft picks next year.

[drjim]

 

He's not subject to the new CBA rules with IFA's, so yeah... Small market teams have no chance signing this guy. Welcome to the New York Yankees or LA Dodgers Luis! 

 

Very little chance he goes to either of those two teams unless he doesn't like money.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

He's not subject to the new CBA rules with IFA's, so yeah... Small market teams have no chance signing this guy. Welcome to the New York Yankees or LA Dodgers Luis! 

He's still subject to the old CBA rules with IFA's, though. Yankees and Dodgers both capped at $300k per player right now.

 

If he's determined to sign before July 2nd, that pretty much rules out the Yankees, Dodgers, D-backs, Angels, Rays, Red Sox, Cubs, Giants and Royals.

 

And makes it most likely the A’s, Astros, Braves, Cardinals, Nationals, Padres or Reds land him, as they have all already exceeded their bonus pool in the current signing period.

 

Although a club like the rumored White Sox could decide to go over their pool too.  They'd have to decide whether it's more important to take advantage of this last chance to go big to get a young IFA, or if they want to stay flexible after the new hard cap takes effect.  Come July 2nd, nobody is going to be able to spend big on young IFA, so the White Sox and others will stand a decent chance at landing top talents, as long at they're not limited to the $300k.

[Vanimal46]

 

He's still subject to the old CBA rules with IFA's, though. Yankees and Dodgers both capped at $300k per player right now.

 

If he's determined to sign before July 2nd, that pretty much rules out the Yankees, Dodgers, D-backs, Angels, Rays, Red Sox, Cubs, Giants and Royals.

 

And makes it most likely the A’s, Astros, Braves, Cardinals, Nationals, Padres or Reds land him, as they have all already exceeded their bonus pool in the current signing period.

 

Although a club like the rumored White Sox could decide to go over their pool too.  They'd have to decide whether it's more important to take advantage of this last chance to go big to get a young IFA, or if they want to stay flexible after the new hard cap takes effect.  Come July 2nd, nobody is going to be able to spend big on young IFA, so the White Sox and others will stand a decent chance at landing top talents, as long at they're not limited to the $300k.

 

That's good info to know. Didn't realize there were so many teams out of the running for giving him a ton of money. 

[Winston Smith]

 

He's not subject to the new CBA rules with IFA's, so yeah... Small market teams have no chance signing this guy. Welcome to the New York Yankees or LA Dodgers Luis! 

Twins aren't a small market team they just have an owner with small pockets he can't get his hand into.

[Blake]

 

He's still subject to the old CBA rules with IFA's, though. Yankees and Dodgers both capped at $300k per player right now.

 

If he's determined to sign before July 2nd, that pretty much rules out the Yankees, Dodgers, D-backs, Angels, Rays, Red Sox, Cubs, Giants and Royals.

 

And makes it most likely the A’s, Astros, Braves, Cardinals, Nationals, Padres or Reds land him, as they have all already exceeded their bonus pool in the current signing period.

 

Although a club like the rumored White Sox could decide to go over their pool too.  They'd have to decide whether it's more important to take advantage of this last chance to go big to get a young IFA, or if they want to stay flexible after the new hard cap takes effect.  Come July 2nd, nobody is going to be able to spend big on young IFA, so the White Sox and others will stand a decent chance at landing top talents, as long at they're not limited to the $300k.

[The Wise One]

When have IFA signings ever been logical? If any team is strong in their beliefs that Luis Robert will be very good they will risk a year of ifa

[kab21]

 

The Yankees still can't give him more the $300k before July 2nd, as a result of exceeding their bonus pool in the 2014-2015 period.  Same for the D-backs, Angels, Rays, Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants and Royals.

 

After July 2nd, the Yankees can give him up to $4.75 mil.  But no team could give him more than $5.75 mil at that point, and 10 teams will still be capped at $300k for any single player: the aforementioned Cubs, Dodgers, Giants and Royals, plus the A’s, Astros, Braves, Cardinals, Nationals, Padres and Reds:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/2017-18-international-bonus-pools/

 

I'd guess that puts the A’s, Astros, Braves, Cardinals, Nationals, Padres and Reds as the favorites to land Robert before July 2nd, since they have already exceeded their 2016-2017 pools and would face no further penalties for spending big on Robert (other than the tax).  BA has apparently linked him to the White Sox previously -- but presumably they'd have to go over their pool to sign him.

Slightly unrelated but 10 teams are capped at 300k for next year's Int'l FA and the Twins have largest bonus pool. Obviously the Twins are staying away from this Cuban now but shouldn't they be in a good position to sign several of the top prospects after July 2nd?

[gunnarthor]

 

Slightly unrelated but 10 teams are capped at 300k for next year's Int'l FA and the Twins have largest bonus pool. Obviously the Twins are staying away from this Cuban now but shouldn't they be in a good position to sign several of the top prospects after July 2nd?

I guess? I'm honestly not as up on the changes in the new agreement but I think that's more or less right.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Slightly unrelated but 10 teams are capped at 300k for next year's Int'l FA and the Twins have largest bonus pool. Obviously the Twins are staying away from this Cuban now but shouldn't they be in a good position to sign several of the top prospects after July 2nd?

 

yes, but the pool is lower, so they probably can't do as well as they could have before, IIRC.

[kab21]

 

yes, but the pool is lower, so they probably can't do as well as they could have before, IIRC.

Except that before there were always 5+ teams each signing period that were going to blow through the soft cap by 5-10M. Now 10 teams are eliminated and those 5 teams have to pay by the rules also.
 

An example of this is that the Twins have had a top 5ish bonus pool for the entire CBA and they barely scored a top 10 signing during that period.

 

But I just looked at the new bonus pool setup and record is no longer a factor in determining pool size. Basically everybody gets the same amount compared with the soft cap system before (or the MLB draft). I am fine with that setup but it would have been great to be the Twins under the pool system and the new hard cap.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Except that before there were always 5+ teams each signing period that were going to blow through the soft cap by 5-10M. Now 10 teams are eliminated and those 5 teams have to pay by the rules also.
 

An example of this is that the Twins have had a top 5ish bonus pool for the entire CBA and they barely scored a top 10 signing during that period.

 

But I just looked at the new bonus pool setup and record is no longer a factor in determining pool size. Basically everybody gets the same amount compared with the soft cap system before (or the MLB draft). I am fine with that setup but it would have been great to be the Twins under the pool system and the new hard cap.

 

In fairness, many of those years the top 10 players were not signed for over pool amounts. the Twins just didn't sign the top ranked players. Pretty sure I expressed disappointment over that at least 2 of the years, either here or SethStohs.net (com?).

[gunnarthor]

I'm pretty sure both Minier and Diaz were top 10 signings and maybe Javier, too?

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm pretty sure both Minier and Diaz were top 10 signings and maybe Javier, too?

 

IIRC, Diaz was ranked 10th by BA (or maybe Minier), and I unfairly or not criticized them for not aiming higher, when they had more money than other teams. That was my probably stupid criticism (or not, who knows).

[Thrylos]

This is a good list from BA.  The top 50 international bonuses to date.  The Twins have 2 players (Javier, 6th and Sano, 9th.) 

[gunnarthor]

 

IIRC, Diaz was ranked 10th by BA (or maybe Minier), and I unfairly or not criticized them for not aiming higher, when they had more money than other teams. That was my probably stupid criticism (or not, who knows).

So, looking at mlbpipeline's archives, Javier was #12 in his class (2015), Ynoa #17 (2014), Diaz #10 (2013) and Minier #4 (2012).  They don't have a listing for 2011 but the big signing that year was Miguel Gonzalez, a pitcher.  I'm not sure mlbpipeline's rankings are perfect - I was pretty sure Javier was top 10 on some lists, for example - but it's a reasonable starting point, if nothing else.

 

I'm not sure which route is better - quantity or quality - but maybe a mix?  The same year they signed Minier, they also nabbed Thorpe.  While we all remember the Sano/Polanco/Kepler year, Sano was really the only big signing.  Polanco and Kepler weren't in the top 20 that year in signing bonuses.  While it seems Gonzalez is out of the org, Fernando Romero - who signed for a third of what Gonzalez got - is TD's #1 Twins prospect.  I guess that's the long way of saying I'm not going to rip the team for signing #8 on a list instead of #7. So long as they use all their money, I'm good.

[drjim]

 

So, looking at mlbpipeline's archives, Javier was #12 in his class (2015), Ynoa #17 (2014), Diaz #10 (2013) and Minier #4 (2012).  They don't have a listing for 2011 but the big signing that year was Miguel Gonzalez, a pitcher.  I'm not sure mlbpipeline's rankings are perfect - I was pretty sure Javier was top 10 on some lists, for example - but it's a reasonable starting point, if nothing else.

 

I'm not sure which route is better - quantity or quality - but maybe a mix?  The same year they signed Minier, they also nabbed Thorpe.  While we all remember the Sano/Polanco/Kepler year, Sano was really the only big signing.  Polanco and Kepler weren't in the top 20 that year in signing bonuses.  While it seems Gonzalez is out of the org, Fernando Romero - who signed for a third of what Gonzalez got - is TD's #1 Twins prospect.  I guess that's the long way of saying I'm not going to rip the team for signing #8 on a list instead of #7. So long as they use all their money, I'm good.

 

Generally my opinion too. I would have liked to have seen them go big and bust their budget like many other teams did. But failing that, I expected them to spend their full budget each year. If they wanted to trade off between going big sometimes and spreading it out others, I had no strong preference. It seems they generally spent their budget each year, or at least got really close, so I don't really have any huge complaints.

[Mike Sixel]

Ya, I think Javier was ranked higher on BA lists, but that could be me remembering incorrectly.

[Vanimal46]

Saw this on the Fangraphs' chat today:

Colin

12:31 Is Luis Robert the No. 2 international prospect in the world behind Mr. Otani? And what kind of a contract will he command?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
12:32 If you wanted to say that, based on how close he is to the Majors relative to the July 2 kids, I wouldn't argue. It'll be north of $20 mil (with the tax included) when he signs.

[Vanimal46]

RMR
1:07 Am I missing something with these reports of the White Sox being in on Robert? Seems like they would be less likely considering they're the only of the rumored teams to have not blown their pool amount already.

 

Eric A Longenhagen
1:07 They're on him and have more or less set the market at this point.

 

This would be unfortunate. White Sox are rebuilding very quickly if they pick up this guy. 

[bird]

 

Generally my opinion too. I would have liked to have seen them go big and bust their budget like many other teams did. But failing that, I expected them to spend their full budget each year. If they wanted to trade off between going big sometimes and spreading it out others, I had no strong preference. It seems they generally spent their budget each year, or at least got really close, so I don't really have any huge complaints.

 

This is also my interpretation of the team's past actions. Top 10 guys when their opinion and opportunity meshed (Sano, Javier, Minier, Diaz etc), high bidder at times, usually when the bidding was less crowded (Thorpe, Kepler, Hu, Park), and finding quality among a quantity of signings with decent consistency (Romero, Arcia, Jorge, many others). But always essentially spending their allotment.

 

The bidding for Luis Robert, despite the restrictions placed on a third of the teams, will be aggressive and will be won by some team who has enormous conviction about him and is motivated by the timing of the opportunity more than most, and I'm fearful the Whities are that team.