The Worst Bar Bet Ever

[DaveW]

2011 was a better time in Twins land, our beloved Minnesota Twins had just won back to back division titles, and were in the midst of what was probably one of the best overall ten year runs in franchise history. Expectations were sky high and an overconfident DaveW made a bold bet with his Royals fan buddy:

The terms:
50 total years
Payout every season
Royals vs Twins
$5 per win (i.e. if the Twins win 10 more games then the Royals in a given season, I win $50, if they lose 10 more, I lose $50) $10 per playoff win.

Easy money right? The Royals were in the midst of their seemingly 20 year rebuild, and while there was some "talent" they had lost 93 games in 6 of their previous seasons. I figured I should easily be able to make $80-$200 bucks a season for the next few years......Oops.

Let's goto the scoreboard:


2011: Twins: 63  Royals: 71 (Lost $40)....hmm surely this was just a fluke, right? $40 down isn't that bad afterall.

 

2012: Twins: 66 Royals: 72 (Lost $30)....uh oh, the Twins aren't looking too good these days I thought, but hell, at least the royals are still in the cellar as well!

 

2013: Twins: 66  Royals: 86 (Lost $100)....This is where I started to regret this bet, but it was going to get worse, much worse.

 

2014: Twins: 70  Royals 99 (including 10 playoff wins) (lost $185)

 

2015: Twins: 83 Royals:106 (including 11 playoff wins) (lost $170) Well at least the Twins are on the rebound a bit, maybe I can turn this thing around soon! Oops

 

2016: Twins 59!!! Royals: 81 (Lost $110) Well....****.

Total so far: 6 seasons, down $635

Questions for the peanut gallery:
-What year do you predict that I will actually "win" a season? I am just hoping it's sometime before 2021 at this stage.
-How much do you expect I lose this year? (or win?)
-What year (if ever) will the bet end up breaking even?

Will be "fun" to re-bump this thread every end of season


My predictions:

-2019
-I predict I will lose $45 (Twins 75 wins, Royals 84)
-2029 (It's going to take a while to dig out of some of those big swings)

[Mike Sixel]

You will start making money on 2018.....

[Richie the Rally Goat]

This year the Royals look almost as ugly as the Twins do. Slightly better pitching, terrible hitting.

 

The battle of who could care less... yeesh

[DaveW]

 

 Slightly better pitching

Understatement of the year I am afraid

[DaveW]

 

You will start making money on 2018.....

Hope that is the case. Also we have a clause that if one of us dies prior to the completion of the bet, the next of kin has to fulfill the obligations. I'd like to at least be up a few bucks when I start circling the proverbial drain, or when itstimetotakeit takes his revenge.

[Willihammer]

I'm just jealous of your friends for having a buddy that will voluntarily pony up money that is owed. You are a good friend Dave! None of mine will pay me (back) until I go full mafia goon on them.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Understatement of the year I am afraid

ok, lots better pitching, but still not good pitching and not good enough to overcome their hitting. I think the Twins and Royals fight for last place in the division

[PopRiveter]

Sooooo glad I'm smart enough to not bet because I certainly wasn't smart enough to anticipate you'd $635 in hole at this point.

My heart goes out to you.

[iTwins]

Bad news: You're probably going to lose money again this year. 

 

Good news: Looking at the Royals roster, and the decisions they'll be forced to make - you might start making money as soon as 2018. 

[clutterheart]

I don't think I have any friendships that will last 50 years.  

 

[Mike Sixel]

Unfortunately, you are really behind now.....I don't feel good about your long term chances.

 

You might want to buy out at this point...

[Pardon My Dinger]

Better not blow your tax refund on those magic beans you've had your eye on. 

[James]

That's tough. I'm hoping that you start making your money back soon. 

 

It reminds me of a bet two of my buddies made before the 2013 season.  It was $100 bet on which team would win more games, Twins or White Sox... in 2015.  

 

They were betting on minor league prospects but one could argue that Torii Hunter helped decide that bet.

 

 

[Oldgoat_MN]

Hosmer, Cain, Moustakas, Vargas and Escobar are all free agents in 2018. You have a chance to come out ahead in 2018!
I’ll be optimistic and say you’re only down $40 this year.
The Twins actually have more money than the Royals, so I think your bet will catch up to even eventually. It may be after you’ve passed away, though.

 

Yes, it was a very bad bet, but not one I can really fault you for. Too bad you hadn’t made it a decade earlier.

[DaveW]

So far so good

[spinowner]

Look at it long term. You have a good chance of coming out close to even.

On the subject of bets: in 1974 I made a bet with a friend of mine that he would not carry one state in a Presidential election by the year 2020. I can't remember how much the bet was for, and he probably doesnt' remember making it. Plus I haven't seen or communicated with him since about 1980. But that would be a good reason to call him out of the blue on the evening of 11/3/2020.

[DaveW]

You are friends with Ralph Nader?!?

[drjim]

Rough couple of years out of the gate, but this should be profitable starting this year and for many years to come.

 

The Royals are entering a bad place.

[Dantes929]

Too bad you didn't make that bet a decade earlier.   You would be up nearly $500 to date even with the lousy last 6 seasons.

[DaveW]

I'm planning on winning at least $500 this year