Article: Morneau vs. The Void

[Ultima Ratio]

I respect John's research and what he's trying to do here, but the approach is misleading. Trying to predict in August 2012 what teams will roll with at first base in April 2013 is much harder than it would seem, ESPECIALLY at 1st base. Teams want big, dumb power at first base, and the position becomes a dumping ground for guys who fail defensively at other positions, but have power potential. Every year, there's guys like Russell Branyan, Garrett Jones, and slew of Triple-A or "post hype" prospects that end up playing 1st base for MLB teams in unpredictable fashion. Given the choice between that option (often promoted from within) or paying $14 million to Morneau next year AND giving up prospects of any value, teams are going to opt for the former. And if they do trade, there are a lot of other guys that could be moved with cheaper salaries.

 

I just don't want us to do the Liriano thing where we overvalue a Twin based on past contributions, and then are surprised by how little we actually get in return. Granted, Morneau was a bigger star than Liriano, and has hit much better of late. But the league knows that he's one accident away from being worthless to them. He'd probably be viewed as more of a Jim Thome or Frank Thomas 2006 plug than any type of long-term option you would give up assets for.

 

Also, the Twins "brand" has taken a severe hit in these two terrible seasons. We are now considered as one of the "bad team" akin to Seattle, Houston, etc. Those teams probably have some good players with value, but it's tough to sell other teams on good players stuck on horrible teams.

I find all this very sensible and thoughtful. Good post!

 

For a couple months now I've been pushing for Hammer to DH next year, moving Revere to left, Span in center and a combo/platoon RF of Parm, Mauer and Hammer. Parm the default RF. Mauer 2x a week when not catching, and Hammer in right against LHP with Doumit at DH against LHP. Doumit catches 2-3x a week and can rotate at DH with Hammer. Doumit also becomes your PH bat on the bench when not a DH or catching.

 

We can never have more than one of Hammer/Parm/Doumit in the OF and under my plan Doumit would never play defense except at catcher.

[jlovren]

Has Parmelee ever played right field? Would it make sense for him to start getting reps in the outfield?

[jokin]

I'd agree with that, but Gardy won't.... Doumit has certainly warranted PT with his play as well and Gardy is going to give that time to the vet. Honestly, if Mauer could play some 3rd instead of 1st, it might make a bit more sense. I'd think if Joe can play first, he should be able to play 3rd.. He has the arm for it.

I've been begging for this transition to accelerate since soon after Koskie left the squad and Joe demonstrated his injury-proneness. For some reason the Twins and Mauer don't see the obvious help it would have brought to the team and still can, there's no doubt that he could: 1) play 3B decently, 2) extend his career and 3) help the team out greatly.

[mnfireman]

Morneau's 2012 numbers (in 86 games) project out to 28 HR's & 102 RBI (162 games). He won't get to those numbers but 25 HR & 85 RBI would be acceptable given what he's gone through.

[Craig Arko]

I've been begging for this transition to accelerate since soon after Koskie left the squad and Joe demonstrated his injury-proneness. For some reason the Twins and Mauer don't see the obvious help it would have brought to the team and still can, there's no doubt that he could: 1) play 3B decently, 2) extend his career and 3) help the team out greatly.

Joe Mauer is still a fine athlete. He could probably be a gold glove at 3rd given the chance. I think it's a good idea.

 

Of course I have zero control of it. Hahahaha.

[jokin]

The other solution is crazy and I don't see Gardy ever doing it. But how about this. A true rotation of Morneau, Willingham, Doumit and Parmelee and even Mauer next year.

 

Let's assume Doumit, Mauer, Morneau and WIllingham are holding down DH, C, 1B and LF next year. One Day on the Bench each week will get Parmelee and everybody playing time without having anyone spend ungodly periods of time on the bench.

 

Just a little creative thinking and they can all fit in. I doubt Gardy would do it though. It's a crazy idea.

Too much, Gardy prefers "simple stuff."

 

How about getting "creative" with the pitching staff so they become effective enough so that only 12 are rostered at any one time and then sticking with a two-man catching staff (has Butera vested his pension yet? If they go 3 Cs next year, I hope a more diversely talented guy like Hermann gets a decent shot at taking the #3 job). A manager can get a lot more creative with playing time with that extra bat on the bench. The days of a bench comprised of only the likes of Butera, Casilla, Tolbert, Harris et al, besides being embarrassing, have registered opportunity cost in the W-L record.

[DaveW]

I've been begging for this transition to accelerate since soon after Koskie left the squad and Joe demonstrated his injury-proneness. For some reason the Twins and Mauer don't see the obvious help it would have brought to the team and still can, there's no doubt that he could: 1) play 3B decently, 2) extend his career and 3) help the team out greatly.

Hopefully Plouffe proves to be a valuable asset at 3rd base for the foreseeable future. If Joe moves to 3rd base I think it would be a full time move since he would have to continue to hone his craft at the hot corner. It is much easier for him to catch a few times a week and play 1st base when he needs a break, seeing how the skill set to play 1st is very minimal. (If that makes sense?)

 

At this point I like the current usage of Mauer, I wouldn't mind him catching more, but when you have a guy like Doumit who is perfectly capable there is no reason to not run them out there 50/50.

 

Also one thing we should keep in mind moving onto 2013: Span, Morneau, Mauer, Doumit and Willingham have all had injury issues multiple times in the past. It's amazing they have stayed as healthy as they have this year as a whole, but I wouldn't be shocked if one or two went down for a decent amount of time next year (thus freeing up even more at bats for Parmelee) and while I think Parmelee has some potential, I don't think he is the type of player who you move a Morneau for at this point to free up a spot for him. Next year at the deadline if the Twins are out of it? Different story.

 

If a team offers you one of top 25 pitching prospects in baseball? Different story.

[DaveW]

The other solution is crazy and I don't see Gardy ever doing it. But how about this. A true rotation of Morneau, Willingham, Doumit and Parmelee and even Mauer next year.

 

Let's assume Doumit, Mauer, Morneau and WIllingham are holding down DH, C, 1B and LF next year. One Day on the Bench each week will get Parmelee and everybody playing time without having anyone spend ungodly periods of time on the bench.

 

Just a little creative thinking and they can all fit in. I doubt Gardy would do it though. It's a crazy idea.

If Morneau and Willingham are healthy and effective there is no reason to take them out of the lineup one day a week. Mauer/Doumit are obviously a diff story with the catching/injury thing.

 

I'd imagine most managers wouldn't do something like that. If Parmelee comes up and starts mashing in the bigs they will figure out a way to keep his bat in the lineup. (See: Mark Trumbo)

[diehardtwinsfan]

Hopefully Plouffe proves to be a valuable asset at 3rd base for the foreseeable future. If Joe moves to 3rd base I think it would be a full time move since he would have to continue to hone his craft at the hot corner. It is much easier for him to catch a few times a week and play 1st base when he needs a break, seeing how the skill set to play 1st is very minimal. (If that makes sense?)

 

At this point I like the current usage of Mauer, I wouldn't mind him catching more, but when you have a guy like Doumit who is perfectly capable there is no reason to not run them out there 50/50.

 

Also one thing we should keep in mind moving onto 2013: Span, Morneau, Mauer, Doumit and Willingham have all had injury issues multiple times in the past. It's amazing they have stayed as healthy as they have this year as a whole, but I wouldn't be shocked if one or two went down for a decent amount of time next year (thus freeing up even more at bats for Parmelee) and while I think Parmelee has some potential, I don't think he is the type of player who you move a Morneau for at this point to free up a spot for him. Next year at the deadline if the Twins are out of it? Different story.

 

If a team offers you one of top 25 pitching prospects in baseball? Different story.

The problem is the log jam. You have Morneau, Doumit, and Mauer all taking reps at 1B/DH thus ending any hope to get Parmelee up playing every day. The only difference between 3B and 1B is that you need an arm and that you will get far more throwing opportunities. 1B is just as much a hot corner for lefties except that there's less lefties in MLB. I haven't seen enough of Mauer at 1st, but I've not heard there being issues with him fielding grounders. If Mauer has the arm, why not let him play 3rd? That will give Plouffe an occasional day off, or you can shift Trevor to the middle if you want to go with an all-offense lineup.

[DJSim22]

What's wrong with having a little depth? Everyone is assuming there are no injuries to Mauer, Morneau, Willingham, or Doumit.

 

People keep saying what if Morneau isn't back, what if he gets hurt. Well, we've seen Parmelee hit big league pitching for a month, what if he plays everyday and hits .194 like he was off the bench this year?

 

We need pitching, but have money coming off the books with Pavano and Capps. Use that money to get a pitcher and keep a line up that 1-7 is starting to look real good. No need to rush Parmelee.

[Dilligaf69]

You are taking a chance keeping Justin going into next yr and hoping he stays healthy to MAYBE get a good deal at the deadline. What if the Twins are contending next July??? they won't trade him then... I think he gets moved this winter... Parm needs to play and unless they trade Span(which is probable) then Ben can shift to CF and Parm can play RF everyday, might not be ideal defnsively because of his lack of experience there but Revere would cover alot of Parms ground in right CF and then you can have both Justins and Parmalee's bat in the lineup. Of course Ben would have to cover basically the whole OF with osh in left but hey if Josh, Chris and Justin combine for 85 hr's does it matter:D

[PseudoSABR]

What kind of production would Morneau have to have in order for you to consider an extension? After all, in the 2014/15/16, who else will be paying beyond Mauer and inexpensive Willingham*. I'd be tempted to give Morneau Willingham's deal. (Afterall, it ain't our money. /hattip usafchief)

 

*I find it hard to believe the Twins would really invest high amounts of dollars in FA pitching, but if the Twins were willing to, trading Morneau for snot rags might be more palatable.

[Guest USAFChief]

You are taking a chance keeping Justin going into next yr and hoping he stays healthy to MAYBE get a good deal at the deadline. What if the Twins are contending next July??? they won't trade him then... I think he gets moved this winter... Parm needs to play and unless they trade Span(which is probable) then Ben can shift to CF and Parm can play RF everyday, might not be ideal defnsively because of his lack of experience there but Revere would cover alot of Parms ground in right CF and then you can have both Justins and Parmalee's bat in the lineup. Of course Ben would have to cover basically the whole OF with osh in left but hey if Josh, Chris and Justin combine for 85 hr's does it matter:D

Yeah, that'd be awful, if the Twin were contending next July.

 

Just to be on the safe side, they should take steps now to ensure that doesn't happen.

[Craig in MN]

What kind of production would Morneau have to have in order for you to consider an extension? After all, in the 2014/15/16, who else will be paying beyond Mauer and inexpensive Willingham*.

 

Willingham's deal will be done after 2014 too. Of course, it's not just the contracts that you have to plan around, it's the rest of the players on the team, particularly in 2014. You already have Willingham, Doumit & Mauer who could fill the DH, C & 1b spots, and perhaps Parmalee. Does it makes more sense to sign Morneau to force Willingham's glove to the outfield or look for an outfielder instead?

 

I don't think there's anything Morneau could do to have me give him a 3 year deal. His concussion history is too troubling. I could see giving him a 1 year deal in 2014, or a deal with options. I'd say 1 year, $7 million. If he isn't playing worth near $7 million, he's probably not playing well enough to displace someone else on the team. If he's playing well enough to get more than that, then someone else will be more willing to gamble on him than I would.

[Dave T]

GM's gamble all the time. Look at the White Sox, with Peavey and Rios. Big gambles at the time, not so much now. Or look at the signing bonus given Sano. Morneau is finally hitting lefties again, which means he's back in business. If he keeps hitting like this, he's as big an asset to the Twins as Mauer or Willingham. I'd rather give Morneau big bucks than a Cliff Lee type of free agent pitcher.

[StormJH1]

Yeah, that'd be awful, if the Twin were contending next July.

 

Just to be on the safe side, they should take steps now to ensure that doesn't happen.

No worries, Terry Ryan's already on it. Bill Smith even gave him a head start.

 

It absolutely murders me when Terry Ryan talks about how "free agents don't work" with his "smartest guy in the room" voice, yet the organization has spent the past half decade paying out huge contracts to their own guys before they became free agents. How is this really any different? If you end up overpaying Mauer, Morneau, Pavano, Capps, or Nick Blackburn not because of "market inflation" but because they're "your guys", does the reason really matter to the result?

 

If the trade market for Morneau isn't good enough to move him now (or next July), then what's the real risk in waiting out the contract to see if he's still a viable player before you commit 2 or 3 more years to him? Morneau is an extremely popular player, and I think the general fanbase would be abhorred if the Twins traded him. If he chooses to leave to some other team as a FA, then so be it. I think the Aaron Gleeman's of the world totally understand that fanbase aspect of it, but are so tuned into the pragmatic reasons for flipping him for value that they lose sight of how beholden this front office is to player popularity. It's not like they exactly "drove a hard bargain" in signing Mauer. I really can't see them ever trading Morneau.

[StormJH1]

GM's gamble all the time. Look at the White Sox, with Peavey and Rios. Big gambles at the time, not so much now. Or look at the signing bonus given Sano. Morneau is finally hitting lefties again, which means he's back in business. If he keeps hitting like this, he's as big an asset to the Twins as Mauer or Willingham. I'd rather give Morneau big bucks than a Cliff Lee type of free agent pitcher.

Nishioka was a gamble. Doesn't mean I fault the Twins for trying and being so blatantly wrong on him, necessarily, but it helps to point out both the good and bad sides of risk.

 

Morneau's in his 30's now. I agree with you that he has value to the team, and they might as well keep him if other teams aren't going to give up good prospects for him. But an extension? Even if he didn't have the terrible concussion problem, plus the wrists, back, and neck to worry about, how much is a 32-35 year-old Morneau really worth? Large power hitters fall off quickly, and they either become something else (like a singles hitter) or are out of the game.

 

Morneau hasn't made it through a season since 2008, and even in that year, he broke down physically and struggled terribly through September and October from playing all 163. And as much as I hate to say it, it could be over tomorrow because of the concussions. He could fall backwards like Koskie did, or simply move too fast for a ball or something, and that could be it. Enjoy Morneau for as long as you can - we have him through 2013, and don't need to make any rash decisions.

[diehardtwinsfan]

No worries, Terry Ryan's already on it. Bill Smith even gave him a head start.

 

It absolutely murders me when Terry Ryan talks about how "free agents don't work" with his "smartest guy in the room" voice, yet the organization has spent the past half decade paying out huge contracts to their own guys before they became free agents. How is this really any different? If you end up overpaying Mauer, Morneau, Pavano, Capps, or Nick Blackburn not because of "market inflation" but because they're "your guys", does the reason really matter to the result?

 

If the trade market for Morneau isn't good enough to move him now (or next July), then what's the real risk in waiting out the contract to see if he's still a viable player before you commit 2 or 3 more years to him? Morneau is an extremely popular player, and I think the general fanbase would be abhorred if the Twins traded him. If he chooses to leave to some other team as a FA, then so be it. I think the Aaron Gleeman's of the world totally understand that fanbase aspect of it, but are so tuned into the pragmatic reasons for flipping him for value that they lose sight of how beholden this front office is to player popularity. It's not like they exactly "drove a hard bargain" in signing Mauer. I really can't see them ever trading Morneau.

the trick is to lock up your guys during their prime and then jettison them when they are on the other side... That does work.