Starting Pitching for 2018 before 2017 begins? Yes!

[DocBauer]

You can call me premature on this topic, and on the surface it would seem so considering pitchers and catchers have only recently reported. You can call me crazy, and you wouldn't be the first. But in this case, I truly don't believe I am. I hope you follow me here and run with this because I think this is a relevant conversation, even though we have an entire 2017 season yet to be played and enjoyed.

 

We all know, and generally acknowledge two primary things:

 

1] The Twins have a talented young nucleus of position players in place, augmented by a few veterans, with additional interesting prospects close with the likes of Gordon, Palka, Granite and Vielma.

 

2] We know the single biggest weakness link in the Twins being any kind of contender is the starting rotation.

 

We have spent months and gallons and gallons of Internet ink regarding said rotation, the proposed Dozier trade, prospects on their way, the value of said prospects based on various scouting reports, etc. Not absolute, but there is, I believe, here and in the rest of the baseball community, that the Twins DO possess some quality young talent, here and arriving soon, and that the Twins were probably not as good as they appeared in 2015, nor as bad as they were in 2016. This leaves the team somewhere in between; talented, developing and possessing potential, but with some obvious holes.

 

We have not only read reports and posted rebuttals with our endless ink on proposed trades and prospect listing from previously mentioned sources, but right here on TD, we have just recently read, speculated and disected the team for the upcoming season. And we still are, and will continue to do so, which is great! But I think we also realize that this a transition year with a brand new FO, and a new way of doing and evaluating things, from the inside out. Very soon though, games will be played. Performance will be seen and speculated on. And before you know it, meaningful games will be played. Whether the Twins win 60-70-80 games is open for much conjecture. But the fact remains, this is a transition year, and I think it's a pretty safe bet various roster moves will take place through the season.

 

Eventually, we will see/know if Hughes can return to his previous form. There is a lot to like about Hughes if he does. Santana is a quality and proven ML starter for our team, but could have real trade value at some point. Santiago is nothing special, but has been successful, and is a somewhat poorer version in value to Santana. A return to health, and his 2015 form, perhaps better, makes Gibson a viable commodity to trade or keep. A healthy May, back in the role he knows and was probably meant for, still has some solid potential. Berrios is a top prospect for a lot of reasons. Mejia and Gonsalves could and should see some ML time this season. Haley offers some interest, at least.

 

At some point in 2017, unless things take a very bad turn, the Twins could easily see themselves, between veteran guys on staff and young arms here or getting very close, as having a bit of a logjam for potential starting Pitching candidates going forward. Probably no #1 on roster...at least for the time being...but with a group of arms to sort through and examine going forward, decisions will have to be made. For a moment, let's assume Hughes recovers and starts to pitch like he has previously. He could be valuable going forward and his contact hard to move. Santana and Santiago could both be trade able for something. Gibson, rebounded to 2015 form and perhaps better, could be both valuable to the Twins as well as trade able. But wouldn't it be better to keep him over Santana and Santiago? And if May and Berrios round in to form, you have 4 spots filled with guys like Mejia and Gonsalves possibly ready.

 

And yet you still don't have a true #1 SP to lead the staff. The team is below the 2016 payroll, (about $3M) and farther below the expected ML average payroll, ($32M), and if/when Santana, Santiago and Perkins are removed, the team gains an additional $27M. For casting 2019, another $23M when Mauer's contract is off the books. Synopsis is, a young and talented roster working towards something with a couple solid/good prospects getting close, position wise. A probably better bullpen with some very talented pieces very close. A starting rotation with, potentially, a couple nice pieces here and close, but no true stud. This team, after the '17 season, unless something falls apart, ranked in the top 11 for overall prospect ranking, should have the opportunity, unless something falls apart, to either make a big package deal to trade for a top of the rotation SP, OR, have the financial means to invest in a top of the rotation SP as early as the next offseason.

 

What works best in your mind? Make the big prospect trade? Who might you speculate it includes? Keep your prospects and make the big FA splash for your team knowing the inherent risks involved?

 

What do YOU think? Which way would you go?

[Linus]

I still have to wrap my head around the notion that the team with the worst starting pitching last year has a logjam....

[Twinfan & Dad]

I agree with you that we really don't know what we have yet. If the stars align and everyone pitches well we do have a logjam. Your points are spot on. Anyone who is in favor of starting Berrios in AAA is in agreement with you too. Berrios has nothing left to prove in AAA no matter how bad He was last year after he arrived in the majors. Its time to sink or swim as he took his lumps last year amid the big club coaches noticing a flaw in his delivery even though our minor league coaches allowed him to pitch this way. May should also be in the starting rotation to start the season as we need to see if his body responds better to every 6th day than up and down and all around in the pen. These 2 have the most potential for anchoring the staff in the years to come as 2 and 3 or 3 and 4 in the rotation. We have to put them out there and let us see if they are capable. Santana is the best we have period. Gibson, we still don't know what we have just like a box of chocolates. Hughes is not part of the future but has to pitch to regain trade value. Hopefully he stays healthy. Santiago is the one I hope to move quickly via the trade route as he is blocking the youngsters path no matter how you look at it. Finally as you mentioned how about the other young arms? I'm all in favor of putting them in the fire sometime this season so we can get a better handle on what we have but trades must be made to remove the clutter at the top. I think the only way we finally have a bonifide number 1 is through the free agent market or maybe a package made up of whatever the other team would want in the following basket of players : Dozier, Santana, Santiago, Hughes, Gibson and a young prospect or two.

[diehardtwinsfan]

JB may have nothing less to prove so to speak, but his major league time was nothing short of a disaster. While I'd prefer him in the rotation over Santiago, I don't have a problem with him being depth in AAA while working on control/command issues. He will be up at some point as someone always gets hurt.

[theBOMisthebomb]

Let's post a .500+ record in 2017 before we start worrying about a logjam in the starting rotation in 2018. The 2017 season should be enjoyed and seen as a no-lose proposition.  If the Twins post a clunker similar to 2016 we can shrug our shoulders as this is a rebuilding season and in Falvey/Levine we trust.  If the Twins pop up and hover around .500 in 2017 then it is a success while they continue to build for playoff runs in 2018-2019 going forward.  We haven't had much to cheer for the last 5+ years so let's enjoy the moment as much as possible. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I won't even try to predict the 2018 rotation, as it's firing shots in the dark.

 

What if Kohl Stewart suddenly figures it out and starts striking out 8 guys an inning in Rochester? What if he bombs out entirely?

 

The same goes for Gonsalves. Hell, even Romero isn't that far away if the front office decides to aggressively promote.

 

The 2018 rotation may see massive turnover, as guys like Santana, Gibson, and Hughes are pushed to the margins. Or maybe they stick around because the farm struggles.

 

I'm sure we'll have a better picture of this when June rolls around.