Article: Draft Preview: Greene Hits 100

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Absolutely agree with this. There is a whole college season to be played and some very interesting arms that could be available to the Twins. And no doubt a college arm with top of the rotation potential would be a "safer" pick than a HS arm, as well as being closer to the majors. But I confess to being a bit leary if that guy isn't already at the very top of the draft boards even before the season starts. Just like milb prospects, the switch can go on at any time. But should the first pick in the draft be the ONE GUY of 3 or 4 that has the best 2017 season? I hope that makes sense.

There is still a lot of HS ball to played yet. With Greene's build and obvious overall athleticism, if he really is begining to develop and command his secondary stuff, risk of a HS being the #1 pick be damned, don't you just have to give him really serious consideration?

 

Lest we forget, Strassburg was not at the top of said draft boards before he went 1 overall. It can happen, and I hope it does.

 

But yeah, if none of the college guys make a case for themselves, then I'm more than happy taking Green with that pick.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Jeremy, whoever the twins take at #1 will be a very good prospect. With the way slitting works now, what are the chances that someone who is highly ranked (think top 15) can fall to 35 or 37? It's not like the Twins will have to use their entire slot on whoever they take at #1, right? I know it isn't as large a pool as before, but there has to be some chance of using that slot money to an advantage, right?

 

I would think of it like that... and more of it as, with the potential savings at #1, expand your options in rounds 5-11. Similar to what the Twins did with Benninghoff last draft. Turn your 11th rounder into a 3rd/4th rounder. Only now maybe you save enough to add another Top 50 talent or a couple more Top 100 talents.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Jeremy, follow up; What do you think of Griffin Canning out of UCLA? As of 2/7/17, he is the pitcher I am really hoping falls to 35. UCLA has really turned out some good starters in recent years, and he has a good build, some above average pitches according to mlbpipeline, and has solid command.

[shs_59]

I"m leaning Faedo , Greene,  Bukauskakas and then maybe some bat, possibly Kendall jumps out.

 

Its early way early. A lot will change

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Jeremy, follow up; What do you think of Griffin Canning out of UCLA? As of 2/7/17, he is the pitcher I am really hoping falls to 35. UCLA has really turned out some good starters in recent years, and he has a good build, some above average pitches according to mlbpipeline, and has solid command.

 

Don't know much about him besides he's an undersized righty. So I could see him dropping out of the first round.

 

There will be a heavy presence at Greene's games, so making a 20 minute trip down the 405 to the UCLA campus isn't out of the question. 

[markos]

 

Lest we forget, Strassburg was not at the top of said draft boards before he went 1 overall. It can happen, and I hope it does.

Really? I thought he was the consensus top pick at this point in 2009. Who didn't have him ranked #1?

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Really? I thought he was the consensus top pick at this point in 2009. Who didn't have him ranked #1?

 

Yeah. I'm pretty sure Strasburg was the goal from the start to finish of the 2009 season. 

 

I remember when Strasburg, Kyle Gibson and Matt Harvey were considered the best three pitchers in college baseball.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I could be wrong there.  For some reason I remember him taking a massive step forward that year.

[markos]

 

There have been plenty of flame-throwing prep right-handers before. If there's a college starter that projects as a near-term, top of the rotation guy, I take him over Greene without hesitation. 

On the flip side, there have been lots of college starters that projected to be top-of-the-rotation guys that failed to pan out. Appel, Miller, Matusz, et al. Jury is still out with Gray, Cole and Gausman. I'm not sure the data are stronger one direction or the other.

 

Fortunately, the Twins still have several months to collect more information on these players. I'm definitely not a draft historian, but it certainly seems from what I've read that Greene is on a different level than most former top HS pitchers. He is way more athletic than Kolek, and it sounds like he has a lot more velocity than guys like Stewart, Aiken. In fact, I'm not sure even Giolito and Taillon regularly reached triple-digits. Anyway, I'd love to see a long-time draft guru (like Law or Callis, for example) write a post comparing/contrasting Greene to other top HS pitchers.

[markos]

 

I could be wrong there.  For some reason I remember him taking a massive step forward that year.

He was better, but I don't think it was a massive step forward - he was very, very good as a sophomore.

 

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=stephe-strasburg

[drivlikejehu]

 

On the flip side, there have been lots of college starters that projected to be top-of-the-rotation guys that failed to pan out. Appel, Miller, Matusz, et al. Jury is still out with Gray, Cole and Gausman. I'm not sure the data are stronger one direction or the other.

 

Fortunately, the Twins still have several months to collect more information on these players. I'm definitely not a draft historian, but it certainly seems from what I've read that Greene is on a different level than most former top HS pitchers. He is way more athletic than Kolek, and it sounds like he has a lot more velocity than guys like Stewart, Aiken. In fact, I'm not sure even Giolito and Taillon regularly reached triple-digits. Anyway, I'd love to see a long-time draft guru (like Law or Callis, for example) write a post comparing/contrasting Greene to other top HS pitchers.

 

Sure, college picks are risky too, or teams would never take high schoolers. The 2006 draft is a good example, it went (position added for potentially unfamiliar names):

 

Luke Hochevar

Greg Reynolds (college RHP)

Evan Longoria

Brad Lincoln

Brandon Morrow

Andrew Miller

Clayton Kershaw

Drew Stubbs

Billy Rowell (HS 3B)

Tim Lincecum

Max Scherzer

 

So, not only was the best pitcher taken 7th overall out of high school, but the college picks didn't exactly pan out in the order selected, either. So really it comes down to some combination of performing the right scouting/analysis and getting lucky.

 

My point is just that, if Greene offers a little extra potential but one of the college guys is right there with him, plus 2-3 years closer to MLB, I want the guy that's closer and has thrown more innings in a season without breaking down.

 

I definitely do not want Brad Lincoln. But if there's a college guy with power stuff + command . . .

[Oldgoat_MN]

I suspect that with Greene it will be all about his secondary pitches, which he really doesn't need in HS.

 

If he wants be drafted #1 he is going to have to display his entire arsenal. If the secondary pitches look good I will be interested to see the reviews. I expect the word 'rave' to apply.

[zenser]

I would like to see a college arm step up but it is hard not to like what Greene has to offer. Does anyone have any info on Shane Baz?  Could he be in play at 35/37?  If they take Greene do they try to get college arms in those spots?

[Wyorev]

Is Greene really 2-3 years behind a college pitcher? 

It may be that as good as he is, he may arrive a fair bit quicker. . . 

I am hoping to see Greene in a Twins uniform by July, 2020.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Is Greene really 2-3 years behind a college pitcher? 

It may be that as good as he is, he may arrive a fair bit quicker. . . 

I am hoping to see Greene in a Twins uniform by July, 2020.

 

In 2011 Gerrit Cole went first overall after three years at UCLA and debuted on June 11, 2013 at age 22.

 

Safe pick Danny Hultzen never made an MLB appearance.

 

Cole's college teammate, Trevor Bauer, debuted June 28, 2012. 

 

The first high school pitcher taken, Dylan Bundy, debuted in September of 2012.

 

The best pitcher of the class, the late Jose Fernandez, debuted in April of 2013.

 

Obviously circumstances have changed with major league deals being eliminated, but there's really little difference between high school and college pitchers (IN THIS PARTICULAR DRAFT). If the Twins brass believes that Greene is the best player available, I'd have a hard time believing he's "two or three years" behind the college guys. 

 

I'm not suggesting he'll skip the minor leagues all together. But heck, Kevin Gausman was RUSHED to the major leagues in 2013 and didn't really become a rotation regular until May of 2014 and Berrios, I think we can all agreed, was slow-played and he debuted in May of 2016. That's 2-3 years and I don't see that happening in Greene vs The College Pitchers.

[Thrylos]

 

I suspect that with Greene it will be all about his secondary pitches, which he really doesn't need in HS.

 

If he wants be drafted #1 he is going to have to display his entire arsenal. If the secondary pitches look good I will be interested to see the reviews. I expect the word 'rave' to apply.

 

Agreed.

But the point is that his secondary pitches are not that good.  He throws an average slurve that he has a hard time commanding and he is learning a changeup that looks pretty awful right now.   All you hear about is the fastball's velocity.

 

One pitch pony, and if that pitch is the FB, no matter how good it is, too much of a risk to be taken at 1-1.  

Edited February 8, 2017 by Thrylos

[Cory Engelhardt]

Agreed.

But the point is that his secondary pitches are not that good.  He throws an average slurve that he has a hard time commanding and he is learning a changeup that looks pretty awful right now.   All you hear about is the fastball's velocity.

 

One pitch pony, and if that pitch is the FB, no matter how good it is, too much of a risk to be taken at 1-1.

 

You are the only person I have read anywhere that is down on Greene. It just astounds me that you aren't taking projection and potential into account.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Agreed.

But the point is that his secondary pitches are not that good.  He throws an average slurve that he has a hard time commanding and he is learning a changeup that looks pretty awful right now.   All you hear about is the fastball's velocity.

 

One pitch pony, and if that pitch is the FB, no matter how good it is, too much of a risk to be taken at 1-1.  

 

This is his write-up from MLB.com on his secondary stuff. The slider is new, so they didn't say anything about it: 

 

"Greene backs that up with a quality breaking ball that is really sharp. His changeup is his third pitch, but he has a feel for it."

[Thrylos]

 

You are the only person I have read anywhere that is down on Greene. It just astounds me that you aren't taking projection and potential into account.

 

I do take projection and potential into account

 

But an 1-1 pick better be the real thing and Greene just is too risky for me.  I need to see at least 2 decent secondary offerings and Greene is not there.  He might be by draft time, or he might not.  Good risk for mid 1st round, but if the only things you read are radar readings and "life in his fastball", caveat emptor  

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

I do take projection and potential into account

 

But an 1-1 pick better be the real thing and Greene just is too risky for me.  I need to see at least 2 decent secondary offerings and Greene is not there.  He might be by draft time, or he might not.  Good risk for mid 1st round, but if the only things you read are radar readings and "life in his fastball", caveat emptor  

 

I just, has there ever been a high school pitcher, or player, who is a finished product? All prospects are projectability and potential. If someone at age 17 (which he will be until August) shows any feel at all for secondary pitchers (which is being reported) shouldn't we take into account that the plan would be that 4 years from now, at age 21, he will have had proper development to really harness that stuff he has to be able to compete at a major league level? That is the hope, right? The Twins aren't drafting him to be in their major league rotation at age 18. They are drafting him because with the right development, his build/maturity/current pitchability plus projected pitchability may equate to a top of the line starter in 3-4 years.

To say that a 17 year old is a finished project and will not develop their talents at all in the next 3 years just doesn't make sense to me.

[Cory Engelhardt]

New article on Greene today.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/ask-ba-hunter-green-compare-hs-righthanders/#wyo6yxqPZfys9i9c.97

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Reached out to someone else who saw Greene last Friday. He said Greene's secondary stuff is his "biggest crack." No surprise there. He also praised Greene's coaching staff. That's something you have to take into account when trying to project these kids. 

 

And brought up Royce Lewis unprompted. 

 

It's going to be an interesting spring.

[dgwills]

This guy sounds like our best shot at an ace. I really haven't heard much about this years college pitchers until the recent draft boards. If they had ace potential we'd of heard about them long before now. Remember how much you heard about Rodon in the years before he was drafted? Sure he slid a bit, the potential was always there.

[TwinsFaninLA]

LA Times article

 

http://www.latimes.com/sports/highschool/varsity-times/la-sp-hunter-greene-sondheimer-20170220-story.html